REQUEST FOR STATEMENTS OF INTEREST (SOI) NUMBER W9132T-16-SOI-0005 PROJECT TO BE INITIATED in FY 2016 Project Title: Site Analysis: Quantifying ecological implications given changes to the utility systems Responses to this Request for Statements of Interest will be used to identify potential investigators for a project to be funded by the Engineer Research and Development Center – Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL), which seeks to conduct research and provide support for site selection decision making processes. Approximately $500,000 is expected to be available to support this project for a period of three (3) years after award. Within the first year approximately $50,000 is available to initiate the effort. Additional funding (up to the $450,000) may be available for follow on work in subsequent fiscal years to the successful Recipient/Awardee. Background: Before beginning a construction project, a contextual analysis is conducted of all the pressures and their interactions at the site(s) where the project will be built. This allows meaningful responses to external conditions to be incorporated in final designs. For example, development design may drastically alter travel demand and destinations of the local populations, a controlled separation of water systems could eliminate large-scale pollution, or fluctuating availability of electricity can change cultural patterns in the effected neighborhoods. Construction sites are not simply a piece of ground where a building will sit. Sites operate in an ecology comprised of natural, built, and sociocultural systems. Identifying the effects of development on a context and considering how these effects may play out in possible courses of action is analogous to the process of conducting an ecosystem assessment—the consequences of system change for wellbeing. ERDC is seeking technical and research support to construct an ecosystem assessment framework for site analysis. The novelty of this effort is in holistically modeling impacts of site selection. The natural, man-made, and sociocultural systems are treated as an ecosystem, and as such the focus is on linking the process of these multiple systems verses modeling the impact to each system independently. The specific work will focus on optimizing utility features of large-scale development projects to minimize natural and socio-cultural impacts. How would the regional availability of potable water change, if for example, the new development draws water directly from the municipal system verses purchasing water from local vendors? The framework is intended to be applicable to developing countries where utility services are highly vulnerable. Successful candidates shall demonstrate proficiency with research including system dynamic modeling of large-scale complex systems, probabilistic methods, social impact assessment, mathematical optimization, risk management, and high performance computing algorithms. The Recipient/Awardee is also expected to contribute knowledge and experiences from working with utility network interdependencies in areas of developing countries. Brief Description of Anticipated Work: Initial work will focus on Task 1 below. Additional funding may be available for follow on work addressing Task 2 and Task 3 in subsequent fiscal years to the successful Recipient/Awardee. Task 1: Support the development of variables for quantifying the effects large-scale development has on an ecosystem when it draws from local utility resources. Utility types include electricity, fuel, sewer, water, and transportation. Using infrastructure network interdependency modeling, formulate algorithms to extend network equilibrium into community systems to address redistribution of demand for utility resources. The societal impact of changes to the infrastructure networks shall be estimated based on communities’ resource demand loss, cost increase, and changes to life-supporting capabilities. The algorithm shall be established in terms of a framework. In other words, exact impact relationships will be location specific and as such, shall be user specified inputs. Task 2: Support the assessment and prioritization of potential impacts for alternative site selection. Define how these variables change over time (e.g. What are the related variables that cause a change in the initial variable? Where are the feedback loops? Are there tipping points?). The Recipient/Awardee is expected to utilize probabilistic modeling for dealing with uncertainty. Task 3: Support the characterization of where people move and establish risk factors. Apply the paradigms of ecology to forecast potential location of population gathering and moving. It should be noted that once established the large-scale development becomes an “urban attractor” or “center of gravity” that too will provide the local population a locus to congregate. This may have many implications other than a physical clustering of people and industry. The development can disrupt the local economy, infrastructure capacity, natural environment, etc. Part of selecting an opportune site is to understand how the change in landscape will alter the location of populations. Materials Requested for Statement of Interest/Qualifications: Please provide the following via e-mail attachment (Maximum length: 2 pages, singlespaced 12 pt. font). 1. Name, Organization and Contact Information 2. Brief Statement of Qualifications (including): a. Biographical Sketch, b. Relevant past projects and clients with brief descriptions of these projects, c. Staff, faculty or students available to work on this project and their areas of expertise, d. Any brief description of capabilities to successfully complete the project you may wish to add (e.g. equipment, laboratory facilities, greenhouse facilities, field facilities, etc.). Note: A proposed budget is NOT requested at this time. Review of Statements Received: Based on a review of the Statements of Interest received, an investigator or investigators will be invited to prepare a full study proposal. Statements will be evaluated based on the investigator’s specific experience and capabilities in areas related to the study requirements. Please send responses or direct questions to: Angela D. Holcomb U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL) P O Box 9005 Champaign, IL 61826-9005 Angela.D.Holcomb@usace.army.mil Timeline for Review of Statements of Interest: Review of Statements of Interest will begin ten working days after posting of SOI.