Table B2. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice
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1 APPENDIX A 2 Correlation Tables 3 [TABLE A1 here] 4 [TABLE A2 here] 5 [TABLE A3 here] 6 [TABLE A4 here] 7 [TABLE A5 here] 8 [TABLE A6 here] 9 10 APPENDIX B 11 Supplementary Figures for the Analysis on Determining 12 the Relationship between Winter Degree-days and 13 Anomalous Lake Ice-out Dates using the Empirical Joint 14 Density Estimates 15 [FIGURE B1 here] 16 APPENDIX C 17 Correlation Maps 18 [FIGURE C1 here] 19 1 20 APPENDIX D 21 Supplementary Figures for the Analysis on the effect of 22 Extreme Phases of Teleconnection Patterns on Local 23 Winter Degree-days using Empirical Density Estimates 24 [FIGURE D1 here] 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 2 37 List of Appendix Figures 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Figure B1. The joint probability density of winter AFDD and AMDD for the earliest and latest fifteen (upper and lower quartiles) ice breakup dates in five Maine lakes (Lake Portage, Lake Maranacook, Lake Damariscotta, Lake Rangeley, and Lake Sebec). The Winter AFDD and AMDD at each lake is calculated based on daily temperature data available at the nearby USHCN station. The density contours are generated using non-parametric kernel density estimators. The red (blue) density contours represent the joint probability distribution of winter degree-days for the earliest (latest) fifteen ice-off dates. Figure C1. The 1950-2010 composite winter 500mb geo-potential heights and sea surface anomaly maps correlated against the time series of (a) PC1 for winter AFDD (b) PC1 for winter AMDD in Maine (c) average winter TNH indices (d) average winter NAO indices. Correlation coefficients above 0.25 (colored areas) are significant at 95% confidence level. (e) and (f) show the anomalous near surface (850mb) wind and temperature anomaly maps regressed against the time series of average winter TNH and NAO indices respectively. The unit of anomalous winds at 850mb is in 7m/sec as shown in the vector at the top. Figure D1 The Conditional probability density curves for winter temperature (and derived variables) during (a-c) lower quartile TNH phases (d-f) upper quartile NAO phases in six USHCN stations (Portland, Farmington, Presque Isle, Brassua Dam, Gardiner and Millinocket). The empirical probability density functions were constructed using nonparametric kernel density estimators. The red curves represent the conditional probability density function for winter temperatures (and derived variables) when (a-c) average winter TNH phase is in lower quartile (TNH<-0.47) (d-f) average winter NAO phase is in upper quartile (NAO>0.2) while the blue curves denote the conditional probability density functions for winter temperatures when (a-c) average winter TNH index is not extreme negative phase (TNH>-0.47) (d-f) average winter NAO index is not extremely positive (NAO<0.2). 3 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 Figure B1. Spatial pattern of the joint probability density of winter AFDD and AMDD for the earliest and latest fifteen (upper and lower quartiles) ice-breakup dates in five Maine lakes (Lake Portage, Lake Maranacook, Lake Damariscotta, Lake Rangeley, and Lake Sebec). The Winter AFDD and AMDD at each lake is calculated based on daily temperature data available at the nearby USHCN station. The density contours are generated using nonparametric kernel density estimators. The red (blue) density contours represent the joint probability distribution of winter degree-days for the earliest (latest) fifteen ice-off dates. 78 4 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 Figure C1. The 1950-2010 composite winter 500mb geo-potential heights and sea surface anomaly maps correlated against the time series of (a) PC1 for winter AFDD (b) PC1 for winter AMDD in Maine (c) average winter TNH indices (d) average winter NAO indices. Correlation coefficients above 0.25 (colored areas) are significant at 95% confidence level. (e) and (f) show the anomalous near surface (850mb) wind and temperature anomaly maps regressed against the time series of average winter TNH and NAO indices respectively. The unit of anomalous winds at 850mb is in 7m/sec as shown in the vector at the top. 5 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 Figure D1. The Conditional probability density curves for winter temperature (and derived variables) during extreme (a-c) lower quartile TNH phases (d-f) upper quartile NAO phases in six USHCN stations (Portland, Farmington, Presque Isle, Brassua Dam, Gardiner and Millinocket). The empirical probability density functions were constructed using non-parametric kernel density estimators. The red curves represent the conditional probability density function for winter temperatures (and derived variables) when (a-c) average winter TNH phase is in lower quartile (TNH<-0.47) (d-f) average winter NAO phase is in upper quartile (NAO>0.2) while the blue curves denote the conditional probability density functions for winter temperatures when (a-c) average winter TNH index is not extreme negative phase (TNH>-0.47) (d-f) average winter NAO index is not extremely positive (NAO<0.2). 6 111 List of Appendix Tables 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 Table A1. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed on the ice out date of eight lakes with serially complete data for the period 1950-2010. Table A1a shows a summary table on the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A1b shows the lake loadings in PC1 and PC2. Table A2. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the winter AFDD of six stations for the period 1950-2010. Table A2a shows summary table of the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A2b shows the station loadings in PC1 and PC2. Table A3. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the winter AMDD of six stations for the period 1950-2010. Table A2a shows summary table of the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A2b shows the station loadings in PC1 and PC2. Table B1. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Portland. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. Table B2. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Presque Isle. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. Table B3. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Farmington. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. Table B4. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Millinocket. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. Table B5. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Corinna. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. Table B6. Correlation between the first principal component (PC1) of lake ice out dates, winter and spring degree-days and winter teleconnections. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 153 7 154 155 156 a) Summary table on the principal components (PCs) PC1 Standard deviation 22.709 Proportion of Variance 0.822 Cumulative Proportion 0.822 157 158 159 PC2 7.966 0.101 0.923 PC3 4.238 0.028 0.928 PC4 3.649 0.021 0.952 PC5 2.767 0.012 0.973 PC6 2.188 0.008 0.985 PC7 1.815 0.005 0.993 PC8 1.027 0.002 0.998 b) Loadings of Lakes in PC1 and PC2 Lake Mooselucmeguntic Rangeley Moosehead Sebec West.Grand Maranacook China.Lake Damariscotta Loading of PC1 0.26 0.262 0.291 0.292 0.374 0.387 0.414 0.482 Loading of PC2 -0.232 -0.197 0.057 -0.174 0.05 0.406 0.287 -0.727 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 Table A1. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed on the ice out date of eight lakes with serially complete data for the period 1950-2010. Table A1a shows a summary table of the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A1b shows the lake loadings in PC1 and PC2. 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 8 176 177 178 a) Summary table on the principal components (PC1s) PC1 Standard deviation 434 Proportion of Variance 0.90 Cumulative Proportion 0.90 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 PC2 83.8 0.03 0.93 PC3 70.1 0.02 0.96 PC4 69.1 0.02 0.98 PC5 53.3 0.01 0.99 b) Loadings of Stations in PC1 and PC2 USHCN stations Portland Farmington Presque Corinna Millinocket Gardiner Loading of PC1 -0.34 -0.46 -0.39 -0.43 -0.42 -0.40 Loading of PC2 0.66 0.30 -0.33 -0.17 -0.55 0.17 Table A2. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the winter AFDD of six stations for the period 1950-2010. Table A2a shows summary table of the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A2b shows the station loadings in PC1 and PC2. 9 207 208 209 a) Summary table on the principal components (PC1s) PC1 53.77 0.85 Cumulative Proportion 0.85 Standard deviation Proportion of Variance 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 PC2 16.14 0.08 0.93 PC3 10.2 0.03 0.96 PC4 8.19 0.02 0.98 PC5 6.94 0.014 0.99 b) Loadings of Stations in PC1 and PC2 USHCN stations Portland Farmington Presque Corinna Millinocket Gardiner Loading of PC1 -0.62 -0.33 -0.20 -0.32 -0.30 -0.53 Loading of PC2 -0.69 0.18 0.39 0.48 0.32 0.07 Table A3. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the winter AMDD of six stations for the period 1950-2010. Table A2a shows summary table of the PCs including the proportion of variance represented by each PC. Table A2b shows the station loadings in PC1 and PC2. 219 220 221 10 Jan-Feb Temp. Jan-Feb Temperature Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temperature Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD Damariscotta Lake China Lake Maranacook Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb. NAO Index Jan-Feb. PNA Index Jan-Feb Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temp. Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD Damariscotta Lake China Lake Maranacook Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb NAO Index Jan-Feb PNA Index Jan-Feb 1 0.72 1 -0.99 -0.62 1 0.27 0.2 -0.27 1 0.3 0.23 0.3 0.96 1 -0.14 -0.09 0.15 -0.85 -0.65 1 -0.53 -0.55 0.48 -0.75 -0.75 0.57 1 -0.45 -0.5 0.41 -0.74 -0.76 0.51 0.89 1 -0.46 -0.5 0.42 -0.72 -0.77 0.49 0.86 0.95 1 -0.3 -0.15 0.31 -0.2 -0.2 0.15 0.31 0.22 0.25 1 0.26 0.49 -0.19 0.09 0.08 -0.01 -0.22 -0.1 -0.07 0.14 1 0.04 -0.06 -0.05 0.33 0.32 -0.28 -0.21 -0.28 -0.33 -0.11 -0.08 Table B1. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Portland. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 11 1 Jan-Feb Temp. Jan-Feb Temperature Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temperature Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD West Grand Lake Sebec Lake Moosehead Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb. NAO Index Jan-Feb. PNA Index Jan-Feb Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb Mar-Apr Mar-Apr Mar-Apr West AFDD Temp. AMDD AFDD Grand Lake Sebec Lake Moosehead Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb NAO Index Jan-Feb PNA Index Jan-Feb 1 0.34 1 -1 -0.27 1 0.33 0.29 -0.32 1 0.28 0.28 -0.27 0.89 1 -0.3 -0.24 0.3 -0.9 -0.59 1 -0.48 -0.43 0.46 -0.77 -0.74 0.63 1 -0.48 -0.33 0.47 -0.8 -0.78 0.65 0.87 1 -0.43 -0.24 0.43 -0.73 -0.77 0.52 0.79 0.88 1 -0.41 -0.18 0.41 -0.29 -0.22 0.3 0.27 0.27 0.21 1 -0.16 0.24 -0.19 -0.04 0.03 0.1 0.02 -0.08 -0.08 0.13 1 0.05 -0.01 -0.05 0.26 0.26 -0.2 -0.21 -0.28 -0.27 -0.09 -0.05 Table B2. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Presque Isle. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 12 Jan-Feb Temperature Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temperature Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD Moosehead Lake Mooselmeguntic Lake Rangeley Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb. NAO Index Jan-Feb. PNA Index Jan-Feb JanFeb Temp. 1 Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temp. MarApr AMDD MarApr AFDD Moosehead Lake Mooselucmeguntic Lake Rangeley Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb NAO Index Jan-Feb 0.56 1 -1 -0.5 1 0.41 0.27 -0.41 1 0.39 0.26 -0.39 0.92 1 -0.35 -0.24 0.36 -0.91 -0.66 1 -0.45 -0.33 0.44 -0.74 -0.8 0.54 1 -0.39 -0.28 0.39 -0.73 -0.85 0.46 0.92 1 -0.39 -0.31 0.38 -0.7 -0.83 0.43 0.92 0.98 1 -0.39 -0.3 0.39 -0.2 -0.18 0.19 0.21 0.14 0.18 1 -0.03 0.32 0.06 -0.09 -0.05 0.11 0.09 0.01 0.001 0.13 1 0.03 -0.01 -0.03 0.28 0.29 -0.22 -0.31 -0.32 -0.28 -0.11 -0.05 PNA Index Jan-Feb 1 Table B3. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Farmington. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 13 Jan-Feb Temp. Jan-Feb Temperature Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temperature Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD West Grand Lake Moosehead Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb. NAO Index Jan-Feb. PNA Index Jan-Feb Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temp. Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD WestGrand Lake Moosehead Lake TNH Index Jan-Feb NAO Index Jan-Feb PNA Index Jan-Feb 1 0.44 1 -1 -0.36 1 0.31 0.25 -0.31 1 0.33 0.31 -0.32 0.88 1 -0.23 -0.16 0.23 -0.92 -0.63 1 -0.42 -0.49 0.4 -0.7 -0.73 0.54 1 -0.39 -0.33 0.38 -0.69 -0.78 0.48 0.76 1 -0.4 -0.18 0.4 -0.23 -0.18 0.24 0.28 0.2 1 -0.07 0.3 0.11 -0.07 0.03 0.14 -0.15 0.02 0.12 1 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.16 -0.15 -0.19 -0.26 -0.11 0.13 1 Table B4. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Millinocket. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 14 Jan-Feb Temperature Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temperature Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD TNH Index Jan-Feb. NAO Index Jan-Feb. PNA Index Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Temp. 1 Jan-Feb AMDD Jan-Feb AFDD Mar-Apr Temp. Mar-Apr AMDD Mar-Apr AFDD TNH Index Jan-Feb NAO Index Jan-Feb 0.54 1 -0.99 -0.47 1 0.3 0.31 -0.3 1 0.28 0.35 -0.27 0.89 1 -0.24 -0.18 0.24 -0.86 -0.54 1 -0.42 -0.33 0.4 -0.21 -0.17 0.19 1 -0.2 0.09 0.22 -0.18 -0.12 0.19 0.14 1 -0.04 0.04 0.05 0.25 0.28 -0.16 -0.11 -0.05 PNA Index Jan-Feb 1 Table B5. Correlation between local temperature, lake ice-out dates and teleconnection patterns at Corinna. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 15 Year Year PC1 of Winter AFDD PC1 of Winter AMDD PC1 of Spring AFDD PC1 of Spring AMDD Winter TNH Index Winter NAO Index Winter PNA Index Lake Ice out dates 1 -0.15 -0.09 -0.07 0.24 0.14 0.44 0.35 -0.26 PC1 of Winter AFDD PC1 of Winter AMDD PC1 of Spring AFDD PC1 of Spring AMDD Winter TNH Index Winter NAO Index Winter PNA Index 1 -0.5 0.2 0.26 0.38 0.06 0.1 0.38 1 -0.14 -0.26 -0.24 0.44 -0.07 -0.51 1 0.61 -0.17 -0.02 0.19 0.13 1 -0.07 0.19 0.29 -0.85 1 0.12 -0.11 -0.27 1 -0.05 0.21 1 0.29 Lake ice out dates 1 Table B6. Correlation between the first principal component (PC1) of lake ice out dates, winter and spring degree-days and winter teleconnection patterns. Correlation coefficients in bold are significant at p<0.05. 16 17
