Does Practical Rationality Constrain Epistemic Rationality? (Forthcoming in Philosophy and Phenomenological Research symposium on Fantl and McGrath Knowledge in an Uncertain World) I The Direct Argument An issue that looms large in contemporary epistemology concerns the relationship between knowledge and practical rationality. Jeremy Fantl and Matt McGrath provide the most in-depth and rigorous discussion of this issue. Their book is an impressive achievement and I learned much from studying it. Fantl and McGrath (F&M) defend a general principle linking knowledge and rational justification— both practical and theoretical: KJ: If you know that p, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ-ing, for any ϕ. (66) For F&M, the justification component of knowledge is carrying the theoretical load. Thus they endorse JJ: If you are justified in believing that p, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ-ing, for any ϕ.(99) While I am unclear about whether KJ is true, I am inclined to think JJ is false. Most of the discussion of these issues has centered on cases that pull intuitions in one direction or the other. To their credit, F&M set out to move the discussion beyond intuitive judgments about cases. They construct a principled argument in defense of JJ. “The direct argument" attempts to derive JJ from fundamental principles, some of which are analogues of the principles used in their argument for KJ. The principle I will focus on is central to the argument for KJ and JJ: The Unity Thesis: If p is warranted enough to be a reason you have to believe that q, for any q, then p is warranted enough to be a reason you have to ϕ, for any ϕ. It is uncontroversial that theoretical reasons can constrain practical reasons. But according to the Unity Thesis, practical reasons can constrain theoretical reasons. F&M begin by commenting on how we do in fact reason: "On a hike, you come to a frozen pond. Do you walk across or walk around the frozen pond? Walking around will take a while, but you don't want to fall though the ice. How do you decide? The crucial issue is whether the ice is thick enough to hold you. Suppose you do some checking (you call the park authorities) and come to know that the ice is thick enough. So the ice is thick enough becomes a reason you have to believe other things (e.g. that it is perfectly safe to cross it). It would then be very odd not to allow this knowledge into your practical reasoning" (73-4) F&M argue that as a matter of fact we do not typically segregate our reasons for believing and our reasons for acting. But they concede that, as a psychological matter, it might be possible to do so, e.g., for you to count the ice is thick enough as a reason to believe you will cross safely, while at the same time not treating the ice is thick enough as a reason to cross the ice. In their view, however, segregating your reasons in this way would be irrational: “When p becomes available as a basis for theoretical conclusions, it is 'barmy' to ignore p in one's decisionmaking and planning". While I agree that in general, reasons for believing will (in the relevant sense) be reasons for acting, matters are somewhat different when we consider cases with massively asymmetrical stakes: Suppose crossing the ice rather than walking around the pond would save at most a few minutes (and saving the few minutes counts for almost nothing). Suppose further that the water is deep enough so that if you break through the ice, you will certainly drown. When the stakes are so asymmetrical, the Unity Thesis seems to run into trouble. Consider the proposition: Thick: The ice is enough to support your weight. On the basis of the testimony of the park authorities, is sufficiently warranted to be a reason you have to believe that if you cross the ice, it will not break.1 But is Thick sufficiently warranted to be a reason you have to cross? It would seem not. You have everything to lose, and virtually nothing to gain. Why risk your life in order to gain a few minutes?2 The preceding strikes me as the correct way to describe the case. The testimony of the park authorities makes it rational for you to believe that if you cross, the ice will hold you. But the asymmetrical stakes makes it irrational for you to cross. If so, then the Unity Thesis fails. Of course F&M would resist this description of the case. They would agree that Thick is not sufficiently warranted to be a reason for you to cross. But they would also hold that neither is Thick sufficiently warranted to be a reason for you to believe that if you cross, the ice will not break. On their view, it would be barmy for you to appeal to Thick as a reason to believe but not to appeal to it as a reason to act. F&M point out (in correspondence) that the situation as I describe it, would license your saying (or simply believing) seemingly crazy things. To see this, we need to make the familiar 1 If reasons must be true, we can stipulate that is true. Note that one cannot hold that Thick is sufficiently warranted to be a reason you have to cross, but that it is not a good enough reason to justify crossing. Given the specifications of the case, Thick is certainly a strong enough reason. Were you certain of Thick, it would be rational for you to cross. So the problem has to be that it is insufficiently warranted to be a reason for you to cross. 2 distinction between there being a reason for you to do ϕ, and your having that reason to do ϕ. In the case we have been discussing, Thick is a reason for you to cross the ice. This remains true whether or not you possess Thick as a reason to cross the ice. On my description of the case, you are justified in believing Thick. Now suppose, as F&M suggest, we stipulate that you justifiably believe that Thick is a reason for you to cross the ice. Finally, if as I hold, Thick is not a reason you have to cross the ice, then this is something you could recognize. But that means you could be justified in believing: Strange: The ice is thick enough, and that is a reason for me to cross, but I do not have that reason. Admittedly, this result is somewhat jarring. How could you be justified in believing Strange? I will argue that independently motivated principles about the structure of reasons can explain how. Jonathan Weisberg has defended the following principle: No-feedback: If one reasons from premise P to conclusion C via lemma L, then if p does not by itself support C, the inference from C to L is unjustified.3 This is a very plausible principle. The main idea is that you cannot increase the justificatory power of your “Bootstrapping in General” Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 81, 2010. I have simplified the statement of the principle for current purposes. 3 evidence simply by making inferences from it.4 Suppose your evidence supports some lemma to just above the threshold for rational justification. Even if that lemma is a good inductive reason to believe some further conclusion, inferring the conclusion from the lemma could result in that conclusion having a level of justification below the threshold. This means that we cannot allow that any inductively good inference from a lemma we justifiably believe yields a justified conclusion. According to No-Feedback, the conclusion will be justified only if the original evidence supports it. Note that as a consequence of No-Feedback, the following situation could arise. On the basis of some P, you are justified in believing some lemma L, where L is a reason to believe C. If you are justified in believing L is a reason to believe C, then you will be justified in believing L, and that L is a reason to believe C. But you may still be justified in believing that you do not have that reason. This is an epistemic analogue of (Strange). For example, suppose you justifiably believe, on the basis of the muddy footprints matching his shoe size, that the butler did it. But the muddy footprints just barely justify you in believing this. Suppose further that the butler did it is a good inductive reason to believe that the maid knows who did it. You might nonetheless fail to be justified in believing that the made knows who did it. That is to say, you could be justified in believing 4 Weisberg argues, correctly I think, that the principle blocks bootstrapping reasoning. Unfortunately, the Dogmatist is committed to rejecting No-feedback. Strange-epistemic: The butler did it, and that is a reason for me to believe that the maid knows about it. But I do not have that reason. You do not have The butler did it as a reason because it is not sufficiently warranted to justify you in believing that the maid knows who did it. So when there is epistemic feedback, one can end up with justification for epistemic analogues of Strange.5 In No-Feedback, the conclusion C is a belief. But we also reason to practical conclusions--intentions or actions. I see no reason why we should not generalize NF to apply to practical conclusions as well: Practical No-Feedback: If one reasons from premises P to an intention to act I via lemma L, then if P does not by itself support I, then the inference from L to I is unjustified.6 Practical No-Feedback should be as plausible as Theoretical No-Feedback. The point of No-Feedback is that if one's initial premise does not support one's practical conclusion, then neither does any lemma one might infer from one's initial premise. This remains true whether the conclusion is a belief 5 6 This also demonstrates the failure of F&M’s principle (JKR for belief) p98 We can remain neutral on whether the conclusion of a practical inference is an intention or an action. inferred directly from the lemma, or whether it is an intention “inferred” from the lemma in conjunction with one's preferences. The point remains that making inferences from one's evidence cannot increase the strength of one's evidence. Our case of asymmetrical stakes involves both theoretical and practical reasoning:7 If you cross the ice will hold you. Testimony Thick Intention to cross. In the theoretical reasoning, the testimony of the park authorities clearly supports the conclusion that if you cross, the ice will hold you. Thus, No-Feedback does not block the inference from Thick to the conclusion. So Thick counts as a reason you have to believe the ice will hold you. But in the practical reasoning, the testimony does not, given the stakes, support the practical conclusion, viz., your intention to cross. Here No-Feedback does block the practical inference from Thick to the conclusion. So while Thick is a theoretical reason you have to believe the ice will hold you, it is not a practical reason you have to cross. As F&M note, this does saddle us with the conclusion that you are justified in believing Strange. 7 The arrows represent the reason support relations But now we have a theoretical account for why you are so justified. Even if one were to resist the extension of No-Feedback to practical reasoning, we have seen that even theoretical No-Feedback results in your being justified in believing epistemic analogues of Strange. I can see no reason to suppose that you could be justified in believing Strange-epistemic but not Strange. I conclude that the Unity Thesis is false. II Outright Belief My argument against the Unity Thesis raises issues about the nature of binary or outright belief. On a certain view of outright belief, my description of the case seems to be incoherent. F&M call it “The Strong Pragmatic View” of belief: (SPV) You believe that p iff your credence for p is high enough for p to be your motivating reason for ϕing for all ϕ.(137) 8 A consequence of SPV is that in the asymmetrical stakes version of the frozen pond case, you fail to outright believe Thick. Given those stakes, your credence for Thick is not sufficient to motivate you to cross the ice. And if you do not believe Thick, you do not justifiably believe Thick. The issues concerning the nature of outright 7 F&M favor SPV, though they do not explicitly endorse it. They also distinguish it from what they call “weak pragmatic belief”. belief are too complex for a thorough treatment in this symposium piece. What I can do is point out a reason to be worried about the correctness of (SPV). Then I will sketch an alternative account according to which you do outright believe Thick in the asymmetrical stakes case. The reason to be worried about (SPV) is that it has the consequence that what you believe depends on what you prefer.9 Suppose in the asymmetrical stakes case, I get depressed and stop caring whether I fall through the ice and drown.10 According to (SPV), under this scenario I do outright believe Thick, because my new preference structure has eliminated the massive asymmetry in the stakes. With my new preferences, my credence for Thick is high enough for it to be my motivating reason to cross the ice. I will save time, and it is no longer a priority for me not to fall through the ice. So before the change in my preferences, the strength of my credence was insufficient for me to count as believing Thick. After the change, even though my credence for Thick remains unchanged--the strength of my credence has not increased--I now count as believing Thick. The mere fact that I have stopped caring so much about whether I drown entails that I now believe Thick. This strikes me as extremely implausible. Now consider the view that part of the functional Jacob Ross and March Schroeder raise this problem in “Belief, Credence, and Pragmatic Encroachment” Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, forthcoming. 10 It is not clear to me whether SPV require rational motivation. If so, and we assume depression is irrational, we can assume that the preferences change rationally, or at least, not irrationally. 9 role of outright belief is to (defeasibly) dispose one to treat P as true in one’s reasoning.11 On this account, your outright believing disposes you to treat Thick as true in your reasoning. But the disposition is defeasible. So while in the normal course of events, you will treat Thick as true in your reasoning, in cases where the risk of acting on Thick is too great, this disposition gets defeated. In these circumstances, you will treat Thick only as probable in your reasoning. But the defeasible disposition remains, even when it is defeated. Thus, despite the fact that under these circumstances you are not treating Thick as true in your reasoning, you continue to outright believe 12 III The Subtraction Argument. F&M’s` "Subtraction Argument" purports to derive JJ from KJ. If the Unity Thesis fails, then so does the argument for KJ. I do however think that KJ is more plausible than JJ on its own terms. For this reason, it would be of interest if JJ could be derived from KJ. The Subtraction Argument has three steps: 11 Versions of this view have been held by various people, though I borrow this formulation from Jacob Ross and Mark Schroeder, ibid. 12 I am not sure weather the right way to think of outright belief on this view is as a defeasible disposition. That is how Ross and Schroeder describe it. But couldn’t your having a disposition to treat P as true in your reasoning just amount to the following condition being defeasibily true: If P is relevant to your reasoning, you will treat P as true? One such defeater would be massively asymmetrical stakes. So if P is relevant to your reasoning and the stakes are massively asymmetrical, you may not treat P as true. I confess that I am not competent enough about the metaphysics of dispositions to have a view about this. (S1) If you know that p, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ-ing for any ϕ (KJ). (S2) Holding fixed knowledge-level justification, while subtracting from knowledge any combination of truth, belief, or being ungettiered makes no difference to whether p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ-ing, for any ϕ. Therefore (S3) If P is knowledge-level justified, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ-ing, for any ϕ. The crucial premise in the subtraction argument is (S2). F&M argue for it by considering a case where you are freezing cold and see a barn close ahead on the right. There is another barn much further ahead on the left. They note that because you want to get out of the cold as soon as you can, if you know there is a close barn on the right (and presumably, there are no countervailing considerations), then there is a barn on the right is warranted enough to justify you in heading toward the barn on the right (rather than the distant barn on the left). This remains true even if there is instead a barn replica on the left and so you are gettiered and fail to know there is a barn on the right. Similarly if there is no barn on the right but merely a facade, you are still justified in heading toward the barn on the right. Even if, despite your evidence, you fail to believe there is a barn on the right, you remain justified in heading toward the barn on the right. These intuitive considerations are taken by F&M to support (S2). By definition, if you know p, you have knowledge-level justification for p. KJ says that if you know p, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕing for any ϕ. The subtraction argument says that subtracting truth, belief and being ungettiered, you remain warranted enough to justify you in ϕ -ing, for any ϕ. Thus, knowledge-level justification for p makes p sufficiently warranted to justify you in ϕ -ing for any ϕ. As I see it, the main problem with the subtraction argument hinges on the notion of being “ungettiered”. What is it to be ungettiered? The only way to define being “gettiered", without solving the Gettier problem, is this: You are gettiered just in case you have justified true belief that isn't knowledge. (Indeed the title of Gettier's paper is "Is justified true belief knowledge?). But this definition raises the question whether the existence of high stakes can be a gettier condition? This would be ruled out only if it were impossible for the stakes to be high enough to rule out knowledge, without ruling out knowledge-level justification. Because the subtraction argument attempts to derive the stakes-sensitivity of knowledge-level justification from the stakes sensitivity of knowledge, it would be question-begging to assume this at the outset. If you can be gettiered by high stakes, then in order to subtract your being ungettiered, while holding fixed your knowledge-level justification, we would have to assume that the stakes are high enough to preclude knowledge, even given your knowledge-level justification. But high stakes undermine knowledge by blocking justification for acting. Thus you will have knowledge-level justification for p, with insufficient warrant for p to justify you in acting. So (S3) will not follow. Are there other ways of defining being “gettiered" that exclude high stakes? F&M, at different, places talk about "Gettier luck" conditions as well as "truthrelevant" conditions. Neither of these specifications is precise enough to capture all the conditions discussed in the Gettier literature, but no matter. The problem remains. The subtraction process begins with stakes low enough for you to know P and thus low enough for P to be sufficiently warranted to justify you in ϕ-ing. Now suppose we subtract, in addition to truth and belief, all the additional truth-relevant/noluck conditions for knowledge. Presumably, low (enough) stakes is not a truth-relevant/luck condition. (If it were, the subtraction process would result in stakes high enough to prevent P from being sufficiently warranted to justify you in ϕ-ing and (S3) would not follow). So after the subtraction process, low (enough) stakes will remain. But then all that follows is: (S3') If P is knowledge-level justified and the stakes are low enough for knowing, then p is warranted enough to justify you in ϕ -ing, for any ϕ . (S3') is weaker than (S3). Just because knowledgelevel justification for p ensures that p is sufficiently warranted to justify acting when the stakes are low enough for knowing, it doesn't follow that knowledgelevel justification ensures that p is sufficiently warranted to justify acting when the stakes are too high for knowing. Again, the argument assumes that one cannot have knowledge level-justification for P when the stakes are too high for knowing. In essence, the subtraction argument overlooks the possibility that low enough stakes is an independent condition for knowledge. Stewart Cohen University of Arizona