Contents
1.
Introduction and background ............................................................................................................... 2
2.
Global methods ..................................................................................................................................... 8
3.
Impacts of climate change .................................................................................................................... 9
4.
Investment and financial flows ............................................................................................................. 9
5.
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 12
6.
References .......................................................................................................................................... 13
1
1. Introduction and background
Namibia is one of the 19 pilot countries around the world participating in the United
Nations Development Programme Environment & Energy Group (UNDPEEG) project
aimed at strengthening the country’s capacity in the United Nations Framework
Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) process and undertaking I & FF
assessments needed to address Climate Change (CC) in key sectors such as LULUCF
(UNDPCC, 2008). The I & FF assessment is aimed at providing a better understanding
of the extent and amount of national efforts to undertake Climate Change (CC) while
providing accurate estimates of financial allocations and funds needed to implement
adaptation measures. There’s a distinction made between adaptation measures, one is
autonomous and policy driven adaptation. Adaptation is different from mitigation as it
provides local benefits which are realised on a short term (Zeidler, 2008). Autonomous
adaptation is natural by private individual whereas policy driven adaptation results from
policy decision (Zeidler, 2008).
Analysing adaptation costs is needed to devise short and long-term financing
approaches (Zeidler, 2008). It is the first time that Investment and Financial Flows (I&
FF) are being undertaken for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) in Namibia (Zeidler,
2008). The Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector includes six
land use categories according to the Convention; Forestland, Cropland, Grassland,
Wetlands, Settlements and Other land. In the Namibian context it is decided that it is
important to focus CC and CCA in all the above mentioned land use categories
considering land use change and convention of one land use to another. The LULUCF
sector includes production systems which in Namibia’s context is; Agriculture (crops and
livestock), Forestry, Fisheries (inland), Tourism, Wildlife and underlying Ecosystem
Services (ES) (Zeilder, 2008). Since the United Nations Convention on Environment
and Development (UNCED) in 1992 Namibia has focused on its physical and social
context to develop policies and strategies that embraces CCA methods (Malumo,
2008). The country’s climate is predicted to become hotter and drier in the future with
variability in rainfall. Most of the land that is being cultivated is not sufficient to support
the people who depend on it and a reduction in rainfall could make these areas
unproductive for agricultural purposes.
The agriculture sector is critical to the subsistence of the majority of the country’s
society. It is characterised by a dual sector with differences in access to credit, markets
and inputs that brings about socio-economic vulnerabilities to rural communities (DRFN
and CSAG, 2008). This sector is dominated by livestock farming with small patches of
crop farming (Ashipala, 2009). Farming is the main source of income in rural areas,
48% of the population in these areas depend on farming (DRFN and CSAG, 2008). The
2
sector depends more on natural resources hence this makes it vulnerable to CC
(Malumo, 2008) as natural resources are the most affected. Agriculture is the main land
use in the country with approximately 64 million hectares (ha) or 78% of the total land
area used for farming purposes with 70% of the population practising subsistence
farming (Brown, 2009). The agriculture sector provides employment to 27% of the total
population and 58% of workforce in rural areas (Brown, 2009).
Rainfall scarcity and unpredictability in the country is a significant constraint to the
agriculture output throughout the country. The loss of agricultural productivity by CC
could have severe economic impacts on farmers and the country’s economy at large
(Brown, 2009). Poor communities are amongst the most vulnerable to the negative
effects of CC due to limited financial, skills and technology and their dependence on
climate sensitive primary sectors (Brown, 2009). It is these people that will bear the
costs of CC most directly because they rely more on the land and its natural resources
and they do not have access to capital that enables them to adapt to the effects
(Brown, 2009).
Rainfall scarcity does not only limit rain fed farming but it also have an effect on the
surface runoff and subsurface flow leaving few areas where irrigation can be
undertaken without depleting ground water reserves (Malumo, 2008). Rainfall pattern
occurs seasonally with an impact on vegetation and crop growth and flooding of the
rivers. During the year 2000 it is estimated that 48% of groundwater sources were used
for domestic purpose, 78% for livestock, 36% for mining and 26% for irrigation uses
(Malumo, 2008). According to the Namibian Agriculture Policy there is potential for
expansion of irrigated agriculture through sustainable use of perennial and ephemeral
river sources in the country (Malumo, 2008), with the Green Scheme Initiative to add
demand on the use of perennial and ground water as water sources for irrigation
purposes. Indirect effects due to the increase in the temperature such as lower
humidity, increased evaporation and lower soil moisture, are likely to have an effect on
water availability to farmers (Brown, 2009).
The Namibian government aims at adapting to CC focusing on farming system by
promoting the use of drought resistant crops while encouraging activities that do not
require too much water and generating income opportunities and livelihoods (Ashipala,
2009). In order to minimise CC impacts and other related environmental changes it is
important to diversify crop varieties for improved resistance and great tolerance to
stress caused by drought, flooding and extreme temperatures (Lane & Javis, 2007).
Changes in weather patterns increase the crop’s vulnerability to pests and diseases.
Impacts of CC on crops vary depending on the region, season of planting and the crop’s
temperature thresholds (Lane & Javis, 2007).
3
Cotton
Cotton was identified as a crop that has potential and it is for this reason that cotton
evaluation has been undertaken based on the yield, fiber, resistance to diseases and
pests and adaptability to Namibia’s climatic and soil conditions (Alweendo, 2008).
Cotton was introduced to Kavango region by Tongat a South African Company in 1990.
At that time farmers were contracted to grow their cotton through National Development
Corporation (FNDC). This stipulated that cotton farmers only sold their produce to that
company (Ipinge, 2010). This meant that farmers were provided with all production
materials and inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and harvesting bags (Ipinge, 2010).
However the company did not provide any kind of training to the farmers by transferring
knowledge and skills to ensure the continuation of cotton farming. The company
abandoned the project therefore it came to a standstill (Ipinge, 2010). There has been
research conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry (MAWF) to
evaluate cotton potential and production since the year 1998
The objectives of the project were;
 To test the adaptability of several cotton varieties under Namibia’s farming
conditions
 To determine varieties that meets the need of growers in term of yield and fiber
qualities
 To diversify crop base using cotton as a cash crop and
 To recommend varieties suitable under Namibian conditions
Cotton was not only introduced to diversify crop exercise but it was a strategy to
enhance rural income as well as adaptive measures (Ipinge, 2010). Trials were done in
Kavango, Caprivi, Oshikoto, Ohangwena, Oshana and Omusati regions of the country,
(table 1) indicates cotton produced and area planted by the selected regions as from
2000-2004 (Alweendo, 2008). This resulted in the identification of some varieties from
South Africa and Zimbabwe which are: Tetra, Siokra, Delta opal and C223. These have
shown constant performance over the past years in terms of their yield and fiber quality,
they also displayed resistant to pest and diseases (Ipinge, 2010).
Table 1: indicating cotton produced and area planted by regions as from 20002004
Region
No. of farmers
Area
(ha)
planted Average
(kg/ha)
yield Total
production (kg)
4
Kavango
Oshikoto
Caprivi
Oshana
Omusati
Ohangwena
Total
73
43
9
26
17
11
178
117
35
29
17
14
12
260
400
400
400
250
150
200
300
46,800
14,000
11,000
4,000
2,100
2,400
70,550
A multi-stakeholder Cotton task team was established to consolidate the gains from
cotton by enhancing promotion of cotton farming in communal areas of Namibia
(Ipinge, 2010). Cotton productivity was also tested in the Grootfonetin-Tsumeb-Otavi
triangle, farmers engaged in this activity which produced 3-4 tons of cotton under
irrigation and 400kg-1 tone under rain fed (Ipinge, 2010). Rice farming could not be
sustained due to the price fluctuation therefore farmers shifted back to maize cultivation
(Ipinge, 2010).
About thirty cotton varieties of the American and African Upland cotton (Gossyppium
hirsutum) were evaluated from 1998/9-2007/8 under the dry land with supplementary
irrigation (Alweendo, 2008). Among the different varieties, five varieties showed good
potential and this were: Tetra, Siokra V15, CA223, Delta pine and Delta opal, these
varieties were tested for a period of ten years (Alweendo, 2008). Though the five
varieties performed well but Tetra performed even better compared to all the five by
producing a yield of 0.89 to 1.5 t/ha of cotton seeds under dry land conditions
(Alweendo, 2008). During the year 2002/3-2003/4 cotton production yield increased
both yield and hectare under cultivation with 78 farmers, 260 planted hectares, average
yield 0.700 tons and a total production of 70.550 tons cotton seed (Alweendo, 2008).
For the purpose of ascertaining the viability of cotton farming gross margins analysis
was calculated for two regions which are Kavango and Oshikoto regions in the northeastern and central north of the country respectively (tables 2 and 3) (Alweendo, 2008).
Table 2: gross margin for small holder cotton farmers in Kavango region during
2003/04 season
Name
farmer
A
B
C
of Area planted Yield (kg)
(ha)
20
1
1
15, 000
900
700
Revenue
(N$)
Variable
cost (N$)
46, 500
2, 790
2, 170
16, 474
348
360
Gross
margin
(N$)
30, 026
2, 442
1, 810
5
D
E
F
G
H
1
1
2
1
1
1, 200
1, 100
1, 500
1, 200
800
3, 720
3, 410
4, 650
3, 720
2, 480
585
675
125
460
395
3, 135
2, 735
3, 525
3, 260
2, 085
Table 3: Gross margin for small holder cotton farmers in Oshikoto region during
2003/04
Name
farmer
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
of Area planted Yield (kg)
(ha)
1
1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
1
1.5
1,000
800
600
500
400
600
300
1,300
Revenue
(N$)
Variable
cost (N$)
3,100
2,480
1,860
1,550
1,240
1,860
930
4,030
385.0
385.0
325.0
192.5
225.0
470.0
225.0
725.0
Gross
margin
(N$)
2,715.0
2,095.0
1, 535.0
1,357.5
1,015.0
1,390.0
705.0
3,305.0
During the trial period, the production of cotton can be summed up as follows: small
holder farmers produced 400-1000kg/ha, cotton trials yielded between 800-1500kg/ha
under controlled environment while the commercial sector under irrigation produced
between 3000-4000kg/ha (Alweendo, 2008). The increase could not be maintained due
to some challenges among which included price fluctuations, cotton inputs, transport,
storage, quotas, ginnery, globalization, trained personnel and marketing of the cotton
seeds. During the seventh cotton growing season production increased in communal
areas during 1998/99-2003/04 cultivation seasons due to adequate supply of farm
inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, improved varieties and improved production practices
(Alweendo, 2008).
In the following years 2004/05 and 2006/07-2008/09 production of cotton declined in all
commercial and communal areas as a result of (Alweendo, 2008):


Low prices paid to farmers
High costs of inputs (seeds and fertilizers)
6











Inadequate staffing both professional and technical level to cover targeted areas
Lack of interaction with other cotton farmers
Lack of information for setting indicative seed cotton prices prior to start of buying
season
Cotton sector development strategy aiming at basis for optimizing cotton growth
sector in Namibia
Labor competitive with food crops and cultural beliefs
Development of new ginnery to give further incentive
Private sector participation and involvement in the cotton sector development
Inadequate capacity to produce and provide adequate cotton seeds to farmers
Poor coordination between farmers, researchers and extension officers
No proper Cotton development plan implemented during the two cropping
season for the small scale farmers
Slow pace of developing a suitably Researchers and development Cadres and
lack of liberalization of marketing of seed cotton
Cotton varieties that were adapted to dry land cultivation were identified to produce
more lint though there’s a lack of farming techniques (Alweendo, 2008).
Rice
The Agronomy and Horticulture Subdivision conducted variety evaluation trials of the
following crops among others: cotton and rice. These crops play an additional role in
food security and crop diversification. Farmers become empowered by being
provided with a range of crop options to adapt to CC (Brown, 2009).
The rice project at Kalimbeza in the Caprivi region is a corroborative research done
by the University of Namibia (Unam), Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry
(MAWF) and Dr Morio Iijima from the University of Nagoya. This research is funded
by Japanese Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS), Japan. This research is an
initiative to introduce rice cultivation along the Oshanas in the northern region
(University of Namibia, nd).
Namibia has low rainfalls, high evapo-transpiration with low sandy soils fertility. Due
to these conditions low yields of staple crops (pearl millet and maize) are
experienced among rural farmers (University of Namibia, nd). Never the less there
is potential to increase food production through crop diversification and exploitation
of under-utilized natural resources such as the seasonal wetlands (Oshanas) in
north-central and Zambezi river plains in the Caprivi region (Fig.1) (University of
7
Namibia, nd). These plains could be utilized for rice cultivation and production
(University of Namibia, nd).
These areas are not being utilized for anything at the moment except for livestock
grazing (University of Namibia, nd).Rice cultivation in these areas could improve
communal crop production leading to increased food self-sufficiency, increased cash
earning and better living standard of the rural farmers (University of Namibia, nd). This
is also in line with national development programs like Vision 2030 and the agricultural
policy which is aimed at diversifying crops to improve national food security (University
of Namibia, nd).
Rice cultivars for these areas were obtained from the University of Nagoya, Guinea and
African Rice Centre which are being evaluated for their suitability to the Namibian
condition. These are from Oryza sativa, Oryza glaberrima and NERICA (New Rice for
Africa) species (University of Namibia, nd). They were evaluated during 2005/06
cultivation season and they showed high yield potential because they matured within
100 days (University of Namibia).
http://www.uni-koeln.de/sfb389/e/e1/download/atlas_namibia/pics/physical/relsuitability-soils.jpg
2. Global methods
Climate change affaects agriculture through effects on crop, soils, insects, weeds and
diseases and livestock. Over the past years China especially in the Norht has
eperienced warming trends. There has been a decrease in precipitation over eastern
China’s farming regions except for part of the north east and middle and lower Yangtze
8
river. Irrigation has become more important with two thirds of the country’s grain, (60%
of its economic crops). If climate trends continues most of China agricutlure is likely to
face short growing periods and increased water deficits, requiring more irrigation. China
is already approaching the maximum irrigation of farmland, potential future water
shaotrages may theraten the sustainability of the coutnry’s agriculture development
(water air and soil pollution, 2004).
3. Impacts of climate change
An increase in temperature will be associated with an increase in the potential
evaporation rate of around 5% per degree of warming. The Namibian people,
economy and environment are extremely sensitive to climate change effects and,
due to institutional and financial constraints, are considered highly vulnerable to
these effects. Regarding the agricultural sector, periodic droughts cause
considerable stock losses and reduced grain production (Jamahiriya, 2008).
4. Investment and financial flows
Table 4: Appropriation Account 2004/05 (MAWF, 2005), annual report 1 april 2004 to 31
march 2005, government.
Main
division
Percentage
More than Less
than difference
appropriated appropriated with
appropriated
amount
Agricultural 36,609,900.00 36,411,947.78
278,952.22
0.8
research
Table 5: Development projects (MAWF, 2005).
Project
Adjusted
appropriation
2004/2005
Budget
2004/2005
Kalimbeza Rice 1,400,000
project
Expenditure
2004/2005
Expenditure with vote
Expenditure
2004/2005
1,400,000
Percentage of Savings/shortfall
budget spent
100
0
Pearl millet has low tolerance to the country’s recurrent drought spells but it’s the most
dominant crop in the Northern part of Namibia (Awala, 2008). It is not well suited to the
low rainfall conditions but it has adapted over the years although it still produces low
yields (Awala, 2008). Maize and wheat is produced in few large farms in some parts of
the country (Awala, 2008). Namibia is a dry country but food production can be
increased through crop diversification and exploitation of under-utilized natural
9
resources (Awala, 2008). The seasonal wetlands, Oshanas and the Zambezi river flood
plains in the northern communal areas can store enough amounts of water for a period
of 5 months after the in flows from the neighboring countries such as Angola and
Zamibia (Awala, 2008). These areas could be put to use by resource poor communal
farmers. Rice cultivation in the Oshanas and the Zambezi flood plains could be an
alternative to complement low yields of traditional local crops and to generate cash
income for local farmers (Awala, 2008). The benefits of this type of move is to reduce
poverty and improve livelihoods in rural areas especially the northern communal areas
with a reduction in grain imports and increased national food security (Awala, 2008).
The Oshanas are part of a large drainage system which is the Cuvelai drainage system
fed by annual rainfall from the central Angola catchments (Awala, 2008). These areas
cover an area of 7,000-11,550 km²; they act as reservoirs by storing water during rainy
seasons and releasing it at a later stage (Awala, 2008). The Zambezi flood plains
located north-east of the country and covers 11,600 km². They receive water from the
Zambezi River which is a perennial river. The Oshanas have the potential to be used
foe rice cultivation although they have variable soils types which could affect rice
production in the near future (Awala, 2008). Some of the Oshanas have fertile and
alluvial soils due to accumulated organic matters found in them (low lying area). Rice
maybe cultivated in the Oshanas like but it depends on the amount of flood waters
received during the rainy season (Awala, 2008). Other Oshanas have natural occurring
salinity which could have an effect on rice production. These include the Oshanas
extending to the Etosha salt pan (Awala, 2008). Rice is a salt sensitive crop and this
affects its growth and yield. Never the less rice adaptation to saline conditions is
different among genotypes (Awala, 2008).
In order to achieve food self-sufficiency and food security in Namibia, farmers need
protection from price fluctuations in order to achieve confidence in crop production
(Namibian Agronomic board, 2004). The table below shows the production of
marketed crops for 2002/2003 financial year, table.5 (Namibian Agronomic board,
2004). It indicates the type of crop and hectares planted with the amount marketed in
tones and process with imports. For cotton it includes communal and commercially
produced cotton in the country.
Table: 5. Marketed production of other crops for the year 2002/03 financial year
Crop
Hectares
planted (ha)
Yellow maize
Sunflowers
860
160
Marketed
production
(tones)
52
306
Price
(N$/tones)
Imports
(tones)
n/a
n/a
52,024¹
200
10
Cotton
Ground nuts
Lucerne
Sorghum
Mahangu commercial
Communal
2,155²
431
265
n/a
218
n/a
1,541²
45
6,700
n/a
255
96,200³
3,650
3,200
1,200
1,930
1,900
1,500
n/a
200
1,100
n/a
The table (Table.5) below indicates the appropriation account for the year 2005/06 final
year. It shows among other things the expenditure for each of the divisions (MAWF,
2006).
Table.5. Appropriation account for the financial year 2005/2006
Main
Division
Adjusted
Appropriation
2005/2006
Expenditure
2005/2006
N$
N$
Expenditure compared with Percentage
vote
difference
with
More than Less
than appropriated
appropriated appropriated amount
N$
Agricultural 33,728,000.00 30,730,058.06
Research
%
2,997,941.94 8.9
Project funds were invested as follows table.6. (Namibian agronomic board, 2007).
Table.6.
Funds available
2007 N$
Cotton campaign
353 639
20006 N$
317 304
Development projects for irrigation projects (Table.7.) included pump stations, pipelines,
irrigation systems, grain-storage facilities and a packhouse, below is the budget and
expenditure for different projects including the Kalimebza rice project in the Caprivi.
11
Table.7.
Project
Budget
2004/2005
Sachona
256,000
Etunda
4,500,000
GreesnScheme 2, 000,000
Hardap
main 5,000,000
water supply
Orange
river 1,400,000
project
Kalimbeza rice 3,000,000
project
Ndonga linene 5,000,000
project
Total
21,156,000
Expenditure
2004/2005
256,000
4,500,00
2,000,000
5,000,000
Percentage of Saving/shortfall
budget spent
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
1,400,000
100
0
3,000,000
100
0
5,000,000
100
0
21,156,000
100
0
5. Conclusions
12
6. References







Undpcc, 2008. Retrieved from: http://www.undpcc.org/content/inv_flows-en.aspx
Alweendo, TE. Nd. Evaluation of cotton yield, fibre quality and pest resisitance
under dry land conditions in northern Namibia since 1997/98-2007/08. Windhoek.
Awala, SK. (2008). Salinity tolerance of oryza galberrima steud, nerica and oryza
sativa l: evaluation in seasonal wetlands in northern Namibia. Unpublished
masters thesis, Nagoya University, Japan.
Malumo, R. (2008). UnamKalimbeza rice project to feed nation. UnamForum, (2),
Retrieved March 17, 2010, from: http://www.unam.na/annaul%20reportsnewsletters/forum_2nd_2008.pdf
Brown, LH. (2009). The economic impact of climate change on commercial
agriculture in namibia. Thesis (MSc. environmental economics) – University of
York, UK.
Desert research and foundation Namibia & climate systems analysis group.
(2008). Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment Namibia: Final
report March 2008. Windhoek.
Lane, A. & Jarvis, A. (2007 December). Changes in climate will modify the
geography of crop suitability: agricultural biodiversity can help with adaptation.
SAT
ejournal,
4(1).
Retrieved
March
22,
2010
from:
http://www.icirsat.org/speadproject/sp2.pdf

Namibian agronomic board. (2004).

Namibia. (2006). Annual report 2005 – 2006. Windhoek: Ministry of agriculture
water and forestry.
Namibia. (2005). Annual report 1 April 2004 to 31 march 2005. Windhoek:
Ministry of Agriculture water and forestry.


Zeidler, J. (2008). Namibian national issues report on land use, land-use change
and forestry (LULUCF) (Adaptation). IECN.
13