Table S1. Model notation details for multistate models constructed to examine the effects of age,
status, year and climatic variables on Wire-tailed manakin survival (), detection (), and
recruitment () probabilities at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Orellana Province Ecuador.
Model Notation
[.]
F[.] x T [.]
F[yr] x T [yr]
F[yr] + T [yr]
F[age] x T [.]
F[.] x T [SOI]
F[SOI] x T [.]
F[SOI] + T [SOI]
F[SOI] x T [SOI]
F[yr] T[.]
F[.]
SCB[.] x DCB[.]
SCB[yr] + DCB[yr]
SCB[yr] x DCB[yr]
SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI]
SCB [SOI] x DCB[SOI]
Model Description
Constant survival
Status-specific survival
Status and year-specific survival (multiplicative)
Status and year-specific survival (additive)
Status & age-specific survival for floaters and constant for territorial
Constant survival for floater and SOI-specific survival for territorial
SOI-specific survival for floaters and constant for territorial
SOI-specific survival for floaters and territorial (additive)
SOI-specific survival for floaters and territorial (multiplicative)
Year-specific detection probability for floaters and constant for territorial
Constant floater recruitment probability
Age-specific recruitment probability
Age & year-specific recruitment probability (additive)
Age & year-specific recruitment probability (multiplicative)
Age & SOI-specific recruitment probability (additive)
Age & SOI-specific recruitment probability (multiplicative)
Parameters
















Table S2. Complete AIC rankings for models examining the influence of age and status on Wiretailed manakins survival and recruitment probability at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Ecuador
from 2003-2013. Model structure includes notation for male status (F = floater, T= territorial)
and three age classes (FCF = 1st year, SCB = 2nd year, DCB = 3 plus years). The influence of age
on survival is only possible for floaters because of known ages associated with delayed plumage
maturation (i.e., all territorial males are in definitive plumage). Transitions in status from floater
to territorial are unidirectional (T to F fixed at 0) and territories are typically obtained after the
2nd to 3rd year transition in the age-graded queue.
Model
([.]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
([.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
([.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
([.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
([yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
([yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
([yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
([yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[age] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
(F[age] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[age] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[age] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) ([.])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
a
model weight
number of parameters
b
AICc
1643.64
1633.77
1613.62
1614.81
1656.33
1646.55
1626.01
1624.53
1642.38
1632.29
1611.56
1612.75
1645.99
1635.29
1614.51
1615.75
1654.45
1644.44
1619.98
1623.64
1657.96
1647.99
1629.79
1631.11
AICc
32.08
22.21
2.07
3.25
44.77
35.00
14.45
12.97
30.82
20.74
0.00
1.20
34.43
23.73
2.96
4.19
42.89
32.88
8.42
12.08
46.40
36.43
18.23
19.56
wia
0.000
0.000
0.144
0.080
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.404
0.222
0.000
0.000
0.092
0.050
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Kb
13
14
22
30
22
23
31
39
14
15
23
31
16
17
25
33
23
24
31
40
32
33
41
49
Deviance
734.42
722.47
685.60
669.72
728.31
716.41
677.28
661.31
731.09
718.93
681.42
665.50
730.54
717.76
680.13
664.17
724.31
712.18
672.73
656.73
708.54
696.41
660.67
644.09
Table S3. Complete AIC rankings for models examining the influence of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) on Wire-tailed manakin survival and recruitment probability at Tiputini
Biodiversity Station, Ecuador from 2003-2013. Model structure includes notations for male
status (F = floater, T= territorial) and age (SCB = 2nd year, DCB = 3 plus years).
Model
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] x DCB[SOI])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[.] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[.] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])a
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] x DCB[SOI])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[yr] + T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI])
(F[yr] T[yr]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] x DCB[SOI])
(F[SOI] + T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[SOI] + T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI])
(F[SOI] + T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] x DCB[SOI])
(F[SOI] + T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[SOI] + T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
(F[SOI] T[.]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])a
(F[SOI] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[.] x DCB[.])
(F[SOI] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] + DCB[SOI])
(F[SOI] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[SOI] x DCB[SOI])
(F[SOI] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] + DCB[yr])
(F[SOI] T[SOI]) (F[yr], T[.]) (SCB[yr] x DCB[yr])
a
post-hoc model
model weight
c
number of parameters
b
AICc
1632.29
1620.80
1622.00
1611.56
1612.75
1608.95
1644.44
1646.24
1647.49
1622.14
1623.64
1647.99
1629.79
1631.11
1638.47
1639.73
1634.03
1622.12
1623.33
1613.06
1614.32
1611.58
1625.43
1618.45
1619.65
1608.97
1612.38
AICc
23.34
11.85
13.04
2.60
3.80
0.00
35.48
37.29
38.54
13.19
14.69
39.04
20.84
22.16
29.52
30.78
25.07
13.17
14.37
4.12
5.36
2.62
16.47
9.50
10.70
0.02
3.43
wib
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.088
0.049
0.324
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.042
0.022
0.087
0.000
0.003
0.002
0.322
0.059
Kc
15
16
17
23
31
24
24
24
25
32
40
33
41
49
34
35
16
17
18
24
32
24
16
18
19
25
34
Deviance
718.93
705.36
704.47
681.42
665.50
676.69
712.18
713.98
713.11
672.73
656.73
696.41
660.67
644.09
684.72
683.80
718.58
704.60
703.71
680.80
664.90
679.31
709.98
698.84
697.94
674.58
658.62
Table S4. Candidate models examining temporal trends in the number of territories per lek for
Wire-tailed manakins at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Ecuador from 2003-2013. Random effects
shown in parentheses.
Model
Ka AIC AICc wib
(Lek)
3 228.52 7.79 0.02
Yr + (Lek)
4 222.96 2.23 0.24
2
Yr + Yr + (Lek) 5 220.73 0.00 0.74
a
number of parameters
b
model weight
Figure S1. Temporal patterns of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 2002 to 2013 show that
our study period was characterized by a number of consecutive La Nina events (prolonged
positive SOI). Vertical blue and red bars give monthly SOI values.
El Niño
La Niña
SOI
2
1
0
−1
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Figure S2. Temporal patterns of A) detection probability for floater males and B) body condition
for Wire-tailed manakins at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Orellana Province Ecuador. Vertical
lines through symbols give standard errors. Dashed lines give 95% confidence intervals.
A)
B)
15
●
Body Condition Index
14.5
●
●
●
14
13.5
●
●
13
●
●
12.5
●
12
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figure S3. Temporal patterns of the number of territories per lek for six Wire-tailed manakin leks
at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Orellana Province Ecuador. The majority of leks show a nonlinear decline from 2004 to 2013. Points represent the number of male territories per lek and
dashed lines and shaded area show temporal trends and the 95% CI’s from the best fit GLMM.
Chichico
Huaira
10
12
8
10
8
6
6
P2−200
Number of Territories
Lago
8
10
7
8
6
13
6
P2.5−800
Tower
10
11
8
9
6
7
4
5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year