Hypoxia off the Yangtze River estuary: Observations and simulations Feng Zhou1,2, Fei Chai3, Daji Huang1,2, Huijie Xue3,4, Jianfang Chen1,2, Peng Xiu4, Jiliang Xuan1, Jia Li1, Dingyong Zeng1, Xiaobo Ni1 and Kui Wang1 1 State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, China. E-mail: zhoufeng@sio.org.cn 2 Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China 3 School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME, U.S.A. 4 State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China Onset and extent of hypoxia off the Yangtze River estuary and the adjacent coast changes from year to year, and the mechanism is poorly known due to varied nutrient sources and the complex circulation systems. Regional Ocean Modeling Systems (ROMS) coupled with a 11-component biogeochemical model has been applied to the East China Sea to reproduce the historically large hypoxia extent observed in 2006. The physical part of the model is driven by climatological forcing and 2006 real time forcing is verified, before the biological part is coupled. The biological model is based on the Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE). The modelled chlorophyll a, nutrients and oxygen are all in an agreement with observations. A set of sensitivity tests are designed to identify the relative contributions of riverine nutrient sources and upstream Kuroshio nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, silicate) in controlling the extent of the hypoxic water. All cases produce hypoxia extent that extends farther north of the Changjiang River mouth, indicating the significant impacts from an enhanced inward transport through the shelf break and the Taiwan Strait in 2006. The temporal variations of hypoxia and the minimum dissolved oxygen concentration off the estuary are also captured reasonably. Experiments with two types of benthic layer treatments suggest the importance of sediment oxygen consumption to the size of the hypoxic zone. Hypoxia extends tens of meters above the seabed up to the seasonal pycnocline which is shallow and thin (approximately 10 m) being suppressed upward by strong tidal mixing at lower layers. Hypoxia is very sensitive to the stratification, that is episodically relaxed at synoptic scales by strong wind stirring related with events like typhoons.