The Future of Dating
A study of trends in relationship formation
in the UK 1996-2040
Contents
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3
The Research Programme ............................................................................................................................... 3
Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 3
1. Trends in dating .................................................................................................... 3
1.1. The role of the internet in UK dating in 2013.............................................................................................. 3
1.2. Trends in the role of the internet in UK dating ........................................................................................... 4
1.3. Trends in devices used for online dating .................................................................................................... 4
1.4. Trends in consumer expenditure on online dating service fees .................................................................... 4
2. The future of online dating in the UK ...................................................................... 6
2.1. The future of relationship formation in the UK........................................................................................... 6
2.2. Which segments will provide the biggest growth in online daters? .............................................................. 7
3. Changing attitudes to online dating ........................................................................ 8
3.1. Acceptability of online dating ................................................................................................................... 8
3.2. Prospective use of online dating ............................................................................................................... 8
3.3. Consumers’ experience of online dating .................................................................................................... 8
4. Regional comparisons ............................................................................................ 9
Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 9
Introduction
In autumn 2013, eHarmony and Third City approached the Future Foundation to pursue an original programme of
original qualitative research, historic data analysis, and forecasting, focussed on predicting the future of dating in the
UK.
The Research Programme
We used a two-pronged approach to gather data for this project; first, an audit and collation of existing quantitative
research resources, including government, academic and proprietary Future Foundation data and forecasts, and
second, a nationally representative survey of 2,067 adults.
Methodology
We interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,067 UK adults aged 18-64. Respondents were recruited and
interviews were carried out online by PureProfile, during December 2013. Quotas were set by age, gender and legal
marital status, and where appropriate results have been re-weighted so as to be representative of the entire UK
population aged 18-64.
Our forecasts were built by mapping results from our December 2013 survey data onto the latest Government
Actuary’s Department principle forecasts for the size and age of the UK population, the latest GAD principle forecasts
for the legal marital status and partnership profile of UK adults in each age group, and Eurostat/ Future Foundation
trend data / forecasts for internet uptake and usage by age group.
Purpose of this document
This report is intended to deliver selected key findings from our research programme in a concise form.
1.
1.1.
Trends in dating
The role of the internet in UK dating in 2013
We’ll start by looking at the proportion of couples who have used the internet to find one another or establish their
new relationship.
Our research shows that in 2013, four in ten new UK relationships began online:

27% of couples who got together in 2013 found their partner online through a dating site or meeting
website, and a further 13% say that the internet was either essential or very important to getting the
relationship started
Breaking this down:




17% of UK couples who got together in 2013 met their partner through an internet dating or matchmaking
service
A further 10% of 2013 couples first met their partner on any other type of social networking or ‘meeting’
website
A further 13% did not meet their partner online, but say that communicating online was essential to, or very
important in establishing their relationship
This means in total, four out of ten couples who got together in 2013 said that the internet played a vital role
As well as helping couples to find each other and communicate, the internet is also coming in useful in other ways,
for the new couples of 2013:



1.2.
40% used email or online messaging to communicate at the start of their relationship
39% used social networking sites to communicate and 37% used them to find out more about their new
partner
15% - one in six - searched for information on their new partner using an internet search engine
Trends in the role of the internet in UK dating
Over the past decade, internet access among UK 18-64s has more than doubled, from 43% in 2003 to 88% today. At
the same time, the proportion of couples finding love online has trebled:


The proportion of couples meeting each other via online dating or meeting sites has grown from less than
one in ten (9%) in 2003, to 17% in 2008, and to more than one in four (27%) in 2013
The proportion of couples who didn’t meet each other online, but said the internet was essential or very
important to establishing their relationship, has grown from 6% in 2003 to 13% today
Online dating helping to broaden horizons
We also found that the rise of online dating has meant that some other common ways of meeting new partners have
been in decline in recent years:

1.3.
The proportion of relationships starting with colleagues was rising until around six years ago, but has since
been falling sharply as online dating rises (from 18% in 2007 to 12% today). The same exact trend has been
found in the proportion who start relationships with their close friends (down from 18% to 12% since 2007).
Trends in devices used for online dating
For online daters in 2013, the ‘traditional’ PC is now the least popular of the major devices used by online daters,
and more than half now use a Smartphone to interact with their online dating service:



1.4.
Only 31% of today’s online daters ever use a traditional PC and monitor for online dating – down from 67% a
decade ago
The most popular device today for online dating is a laptop computer (69%) up from 24% a decade ago
More than half (52%) now use a Smartphone to interact with their online dating service, and one in three
online daters now use a ‘tablet’ computer
Trends in consumer expenditure on online dating service fees
According to our survey data, in 2013, 41% of online daters used a paid-for service, (a proportion that has declined
over the past decade but only very gradually). With total numbers of online daters growing strongly (as the number
of singles in the UK grows and internet use continues to rise), and average annual expenditure per paying dater
growing at slightly above the rate of inflation, total consumer spending on online dating site fees is set to grow
enormously.
Breaking down the 41% of online daters who pay fees:



14% of 2013 online daters paid a joining fee to an online dating website
24% of 2013 online daters paid ongoing subscription fees to a dating website
3% paid both types of fees
Mapping our survey data onto Government Actuary’s Dept. forecasts for the size, age and marital status of the UK
population, we estimate that UK-wide:



Average annual expenditure per fee-paying online dater in 2013 was £127.91
Average annual expenditure per online dater was £52.19 in 2013
Total consumer spending on online dating was £141.6 million in the year 2013
And mapping today’s expenditure levels onto our forecasts for the prevalence of online dating, the proportion
paying and average fee levels among those paying, we conclude that:

Expenditure on online dating is expected to rise by 81% in constant 2013 prices, to £256.8 million by 2030
2.
The future of online dating in the UK
What does the future hold for online dating?
Using a combination of existing trend data and forecasts from Eurostat, Ofcom, the Government Actuary’s Dept, and
Future Foundation’s proprietary forecasts for internet uptake and use, alongside our new retrospective recall survey
data on use of online dating 1996-2013, we have built a model of uptake of online dating and use of the internet in
establishing relationships for the period 1996 to 2040.
The figures below relate to the entire UK adult population aged 18-64.
2.1.
The future of relationship formation in the UK
The chart below shows historic data from 1996-2013 on the proportion of new relationships that happened via an
online dating or matchmaking service, via ‘any other website designed to help people meet each other’, and also the
proportion of relationships in which the internet was considered essential, or important, despite the couple not
actually first meeting online.
It also shows our forecasts for each category, between 2014 and 2040.
Chart 1: The role of the internet in new relationship formation, 1996 to 2040
80%
70%
60%
Online communication important or
essential to establishing relationship
50%
Couple meets via other website
40%
30%
20%
Couple meets via online dating agency or
matchmaking service
10%
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
0%
Base: 1666 United Kingdom adults age 18-64 starting new relationships between 1996 and 2013 / Eurostat 2001-12 / Government Actuary’s Dept. & Future
Foundation forecasts
Source: eHarmony/ The Future Foundation, 2014
As the chart above illustrates, we forecast that:

By 2031, the majority (just over 50%) of relationships will start on the internet (involve partners who first
meet each other online)




2.2.




Dedicated dating or matchmaking services or apps will continue to grow in popularity. By 2030, 38% of new
relationships will start via an online dating or matchmaking service, up from 17% today1.
This said, we also anticipate continued (steady, almost linear) growth in the proportion of new relationships
starting via ‘other sites designed to help people meet each other’2, up from 10% in 2013 to 12% by 2030
A further 13% of partners didn’t meet on online but nonetheless say that using the internet was essential or
very important to establishing their relationship – a proportion that will also grow steadily (in line with
growth in net usage), up to 15% by 2030
So, with 40% of UK new relationships already relying on the internet in one way or another, the role of the
internet will continue to grow in overall terms, and by 2040 only three in ten new relationships will owe
little or nothing to online dating or online communication – with seven in ten either meeting online or using
online communication to get to know each other.
Which segments will provide the biggest growth in online daters?
In terms of age groups, the biggest growth segment over the next decade is expected to be the 55-64 age
group, who will see a 30% rise in total numbers of singletons between 2013 and 2030 (from 1.87 million in
2003 to 2.41 million in 2030), while continuing to significantly increase their rates of internet usage.
The 35-44 age group will see an even higher rise in numbers of singles (up 33% between 2013 and 2030, but
much less growth in internet access (the vast majority being online already). This makes them likely to be the
second largest growth group, in age terms.
Women will also continue to drive growth, with only one in six single women (16%) feeling that their local
area offers ample attractive options (cf. 27% of single men).
Regionally, the fastest expected growth in online dater numbers to 2030 is expected to be in London
(London’s population is expected to grow at more than double the rate of the rest of the UK between 2013
and 2030).
1
The options for daters will continue to diversify in terms of price and approach (despite increasing underlying systems
integration) and we may see increasing integration with other social networking platforms: but a specialised interface and set of
privacy protocols will continue to have relevance and appeal for daters, and such websites and apps will continue to account for
the large majority of relationships-that-begin-online. Growth will describe an s-curve (as it has done so far), levelling off at
around 50-55% for all online-starts. The reason we anticipate levelling off at this level is that our survey data tells us that in the
very long term (going right back to 25+ years ago), around half of all relationships were formed with strangers, and half with coworkers, friends, and other ‘already-known’ individuals. We expect this historic ratio to remain similar, with online dating and
networking set to largely replace (or insert themselves into) other methods of meeting previously unknown others (even in outof-home leisure venues, some use of mobile and location-based services is likely to be a prelude or accompaniment to realworld contact). Online dating will also supplant a small proportion of relationships that start between ‘known others’ (simply by
providing better alternatives), but we expect pre-existing friendships and acquaintances to continue to provide the basis for just
under half of all relationships in future.
2
(this is a deliberately broad/vague category of websites which could encompass anything from ‘casual’ dating apps to social
networking websites). We readily acknowledge that the lines between these categories are blurred and somewhat at the mercy
of subjective perceptions – and they will certainly become increasingly blurred in future. What ‘counts’ as an online dating
agency, what distinguishes such a service from one that facilitates more casual or prosaic encounters, is, in part, a question of
perception (i.e. shaped by marketing, prior expectations, behaviour of users, etc, as much as technical or functional difference).
Our trend data is thus explicitly defined as reflecting respondents’ subjective description of the service/site/app they used,
rather than any ‘technical’ boundary.
3.
Changing attitudes to online dating
In section three, we focus on attitudes to dating and online dating.
3.1.



3.2.



3.3.
Acceptability of online dating
94% think online dating has become more ‘normal’ in recent years
86% don't think there is anything wrong with online dating
58% of UK adults agree that ‘If I wanted to meet a partner in future, I would probably use online dating’
Prospective use of online dating
Among current daters who have never tried online dating, 40% say that they would definitely consider trying
it, and a further 33% say they might do so
Overall, 24% of all UK adults aged 18-64 who have never done online dating say they would definitely
consider it if looking for a partner in future – the highest likelihood of consideration was among 35-44 yearolds (32%)
Among those who have never dated online, 25% say they wish they’d had a chance to try online dating –
(and 27% of married people say they wish they had had a chance to try online dating)
Consumers’ experience of online dating
Lastly, let’s summarise key facts about how familiar we are with online dating today.




27% of today’s couples met each other through an online dating or meeting service
A further 13% of partnered individuals did not meet their current partner via online dating, but have used an
online dating service in the past
A majority (52%) of UK adults aged 18-64 now have at least one friend or family member who is currently in
a relationship with someone they met through an online dating service
Online daters are significantly more likely than ‘on-the-town’ daters to say that they generally enjoyed the
experience of dating (34% vs. 29%)
4.
Regional comparisons
Finally, let’s examine some regional breakdowns. The table below shows how experience of online dating varies by
region, and (see right-most column) how rapidly we expect each regions’ online dating population to grow.
Table 1: Regional comparisons: % partners who met online, total % ever tried online dating, total % who would
consider in future, £ spend per dater, expected % change in numbers of daters 2013-2030
All UK adults aged 18-64
% of couples
who met
partner
online
% who have
ever tried
online dating
% who would
consider
online dating
in future
£ spend on
online dating
per online
dater 2013
% growth in
number of
online daters,
2013-2030
UK
27%
40%
57%
£52.19
95%
South East
28%
27%
27%
27%
25%
23%
22%
19%
19%
18%
18%
13%
42%
47%
40%
38%
40%
38%
38%
27%
32%
38%
33%
22%
54%
60%
60%
46%
61%
62%
47%
55%
59%
67%
54%
50%
£49.02
£52.90
£29.40
£38.79
£41.96
£89.30
£56.74
£56.32
£64.45
£54.44
£43.03
-
95%
94%
91%
94%
94%
103%
91%
91%
94%
94%
94%
93%
South West
North West
East of England
West Midlands
London
North East
Scotland
Yorkshire & the Humber
Wales
East Midlands
Northern Ireland
As we can see:



Couples from the South East (28%) are the most likely to have met one another online
Northern Ireland’s couples are currently the least likely (13%) to have met online, (but the most likely to
have used a paid service)
The fastest expected growth in online dating to 2030 is in London, where, we think, the numbers of daters
can still more than double by 2030, rising 103%, driven on by London’s higher rate of population growth
Conclusion
It has been striking to see how far - and how fast - online dating is changing the way in which couples meet, and
fascinating to think about where we are likely to get to by the 2030s.
One likely feature of online dating in 2030 and beyond is that it probably won’t often be thought of or described as
‘online’ anymore; in a world where anything and everything will be online, and the internet is everywhere (in every
location, on every device), the ‘online-ness’ of online dating (and indeed online shopping, online banking, etc.) will
simply no longer seem particularly significant to people.
What will remain important to people in 2030 is finding ‘Mr. or Mrs. Right’, and figuring out the best way to go about
it. There will certainly be no shortage of options.
Online dating is set to help ever-growing numbers of people move beyond their immediate social circles and
undertake the quest to find love in a safer, more efficient way. Perhaps, in doing so, it will even contribute to
creating a happier Britain in the long term.