2010 Arctic Report Card




Unlikely that the Arctic will return to conditions that were considered normal in later half of the
20th century
Greenland melt period 1 month longer than 30 year average
o Largest single glacier area loss of 110 m2
Looking at ice extent, Northern Sea Route & NW Passage were ice-free in Sept 2010
Possible displacement of Arctic species by sub-Arctic species
Atmosphere





Annual temperature anomaly of greater than 2°C for Arctic
Sept 2009 3rd lowest minimum sea ice extent
Arctic Dipole Anomaly (DA) southerly winds from Bering Strait across North Pole aid in melting
2010 did not meet or exceed sea ice minimum record, but still low sea ice
Warm Arctic-Cold Continents climate pattern in Dec 2009 & Feb 2010
o Higher geopotential heights in Arctic & lower heights in North America (latitudes less
than 60 degrees)
o Models suggest loss of sea ice in fall favors higher geopotential heights over the Arctic
(warmer temps)
Sea Ice Cover




Monitored since 1979
o 2 periods
 March is sea ice maximum
 Sept is sea ice minimum
Strong atmospheric circulation pattern set up in June 2010 & helped to push the ice edge away
from the coast
Satellite observations can be used to determine the age of the ice by tracking ice parcels over
several years
Modest increase in multi-year ice in 2009 & 2010
Ocean



Land
Increasing melt water from sea ice & CO2 (acidification) in ocean caused surface waters of
Canada Basin to become corrosive to calcifying organisms
Surface warming & sea ice reduction in Canada Basin accompanied by near surface temperature
maximum at 25-35 m depth due to penetrating solar radiation
Sea level along Siberian coastline significantly decreased relative to 2008
o May be due to substantial change in wind driven ocean circulation regime





High variability from year to year and region to region based on Arctic wide warming trend
Connectivity between various elements of the Arctic system, with conditions being linked to
atmospheric circulation patterns, sea ice conditions, and ocean surface temperatures
Low winter snow accumulation & warm spring temperatures help to set new record low spring
snow cover
General increase in permafrost temperatures in Alaska, northwest Canada, Siberia & northern
Europe
More greening in vegetation, as much as 15% increase in High Arctic of Canada and West
Greenland and Northern Alaska
Vegetation




Greatest % of greening in High Arctic Canada, west Greenland, northern AK
Used NDVI to measure vegetation
o Unitless number ranging from -1 to 1
o Closer to 1 more vegetation
Most evident changes firs in the far north
Likely response to increased summer temperatures with strongest in winter
o Longer growing season and deeper active layer (thawing permafrost)
Permafrost



General increase in permafrost temperatures in AK (mostly along the coast)
Russian Arctic increase in permafrost temperature by .35°C
o Thawing of permafrost in areas of discontinuous permafrost in Russia
Development of new closed taliks in some areas of continuous permafrost resulted in observed
northward movement of boundary between continuous & discontinuous permafrost
River Discharge



Increasing trend in Eurasia & North America
Difficult to provide real time measurements in the arctic
o Not as many observation sites
o Ice
Partnered with Russia to develop method to estimate river discharge from most important
Russian monitoring sites in near real time
o Use provisional stage measurements & river ice data
Terrestrial Snow


Low winter snow accumulation & warm spring temperatures resulted in new record low spring
snow cover duration (SCD)
Variables include
o SCD snow cover duration
o
o
 Computed Fall & Spring
 North American & Eurasia record low spring SCD
 Negative spring SCD over much of Arctic
 Fall has no trends

SCE snow cover extent
 NH spring decreasing trend
SWE snow water equivalent
 Derived 1999-2010 regionally averaged April were positive more liquid water in
form of snow
Glaciers Outside of Greenland





Shrinking mountain glaciers and ice caps are major cause of sea level change
Health of glaciers are determined by annual mass balance
o Mass added by snowfall – melting & melting runoff & calving of iceburgs
o Measured annually around 20 Arctic glaciers
 2008-2009 results not ready yet
 2007-2008 results are available
Gulf of Alaska glaciers use GRACE gravity field measurements
Small number of mass balance glaciers & in situ meteorological measurements, data from
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis used to characterize climate conditions & likely trends
o Expect negative glacier mass balances in Canada High Arctic
o Expect neutral in Iceland
Calves from various ice shelves have drifted into the Canada Basin
Greenland



Record high air temperatures, ice loss by melting & marine-terminating glacier area loss
resulting in highest melt rate since 1958
Number of melting days in August has increased by 24 days over the past 30 years
Marine terminating glacier area changes
o Represent the outlets through ice can move most quickly & largest quantities out to sea
Biology



Arctic species are expected to be displaced by encroachment of more sub-Arctic species and
ecosystems
Need to understand how Arctic’s living resources are responding to changes in order to develop
effective conservation and adaptation strategies
Observed trends largely consistent with current predictions regarding response of Arctic wildlife
to changing environmental conditions
o Need to invest in improved monitoring