POVERTY LITERATURE REVIEW SUMMARY: INVESTMENT CLIMATE AND POVERTY REDUCTION1 Evidence from literature suggests that investment climate matters for the poor. The relationship between investment climate (IC) reforms and poverty reduction can be understood in two ways. First, the impact of IC reforms can be seen on the aggregate level, through facilitating investments, exports and improving productivity. These, in turn, spur economic growth, which positively affects poor people through improvements to their income. Second, IC reforms affect people directly. The gains can be seen through the lenses of people capacities as consumers capitalizing on lower price levels, users of infrastructures and finance through better access to services, and potentially entrepreneurs and employees through private sector savings and job creation. Going forward, more country-specific and cross-country research is needed to better understand and confirm these linkages. Introduction This note summarizes a literature review conducted by IFC on identifying the transmission links of investment climate to poverty and economic growth. This exercise was undertaken as part of IFC’s Poverty Action Plan, to better understand how IFC operations in specific sectors across its investment and advisory operations result in eradicating poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The operating and regulatory environments in developing countries can be challenging, thereby hindering private sector development, which remains relatively inefficient, uncompetitive and dominated by informal economy. Investment climate reforms seek to address these market failures by facilitating enterprise creation and growth, fostering international trade and investment, promoting sustainable investments in key industries (agribusiness, tourism) and encouraging private participation in infrastructure and social sectors (ICT and health). They focus on micro, small and medium sized enterprises and reach the poorest regions of the world. The Investment Climate Department (CIC) invests 31% of its funding in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 47.5% of the population classifies as poor by the USD 1.25 a day measure. Indirect impact of investment climate reforms through economic growth The linkages between IC reforms and poverty reduction are two-fold. First, IC reforms can make a substantial contribution to private sector development and hence economic growth, which is an important factor in poverty reduction. Analysis of enterprise survey data shows that several constraints in investment climate together account for more than half of the most important obstacles cited by businesses. These indirect effects are discussed below. Secondly, IC reforms have a direct impact on the lives of the poor, through business creation, employment, improved access to infrastructure and other improvements driven by the reforms. The international community underscored the importance of an enabling business climate for private investment and job creation during the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Mexico in June 2012.2 The direct effects are discussed in the next section. Evidence from literature suggests that IC reforms can increase countries’ exports, investment and productivity, all of which are major contributors to economic growth. Trade logistics reforms, for 1 This note has been summarized from the poverty literature review conducted by the Investment Climate department. The note is available on IFC’s poverty webpage: http://ifcnet.ifc.org/ifcint/deveffectiveness.nsf/Content/home 2 IFC Jobs Study: ‘Assessing Private Sector Contributions to Job Creation and Poverty Reduction’, January 2013 1 example, have a notable impact on productivity and GDP. A 1% reduction in the time to export increases exports by 0.4%. Exporters are on average 28% more productive than non-exporters and have a higher rate of productivity growth. Cross-country research studies on business taxation suggest that lower effective tax rates are associated with higher foreign direct investment (FDI), approximately 1.6-2.1% of GDP. Reforms in competition policy can help open markets and promote competition typically resulting in lower prices and better deals for consumers. They tend to stimulate innovation, productivity and economic growth. A study based on Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries found that reducing state controls and barriers to competition increased long term employment rates by 2.5-5%. And economic growth can be good for the poor. A body of literature provides evidence that the poor benefit from economic growth. For example, Kraay (2004) found that in the medium to long run; between 66-90% of the variation in changes in poverty can be accounted for by the growth in average incomes. Studies also find that there is a strong positive correlation between the incomes of the poor and average per capita income, suggesting that poverty trends track growth trends very closely. Direct impact of investment climate reforms The direct impact on the lives of the poor is seen through lower prices for consumers or improved access to infrastructure. For example, various studies suggest that competition and trade also push prices down and increase the variety of goods and services, including food, accessible to the poor. Lowering barriers to entry by 10% can decrease price markup by nearly 6%. Electricity sector reforms aimed at privatization and restructuring reforms in Latin America increased installed capacity and utilization, and in some cases led to price decreases. Evidence suggests that informal employment is associated with poverty, and hence IC reforms that aim to increase formalization and employment benefit the poor as entrepreneurs and employees. However, literature evidence is not conclusive and a growing number of studies show that IC reforms, which focus mainly on the formal sector, don’t have a sizeable impact on formalization. While the effect of improved business entry regulations on firm creation has been well documented, less is known about their impact on firm formalization, survival and employment. This applies to the impact of business taxation, insolvency, ADR and other IC reform areas as well. As a result, more research is needed to understand these linkages. The IFC Jobs Study cites several instances of studies which highlight the significant employment creation effects of IC reforms. While Special Economic Zones (SEZs) may not have been universally successful, these concentrated zones with good infrastructure and connectivity and governed by a comprehensive and integrated set of rules on business environment have been instrumental in promoting local clusters, attracting FDI, creating jobs and formality. Of the approximate 3,500 zones operative today, more than 2,300 are in developing or transition countries and employ 66 million people. Worldwide, 60-70% of the employees in SEZs are women, who tend to be engaged in labor intensive and assembly oriented activities. Conclusion A sound investment climate is critical for the private sector to develop and contribute to economic growth. Therefore any investment climate reforms indirectly contribute to poverty reduction through this growth. Directly, these reforms address market constraints and thus can achieve increased access to infrastructure, to products and services at lower prices and through creation of formal jobs. IFC’s Job Study has provided a comprehensive overview of the IC constraints businesses face and some evidence of the degree of employment generation when these constraints are removed. However, in general, empirical 2 evidence to support the links between investment climate reforms and poverty reduction are relatively scarce. IFC’s IC department has embarked on a comprehensive evaluation program to systematically address some of these gaps and the findings are sure to provide further evidence to validate these links. Figure 1: Investment Climate and Links to Poverty Reduction IC Strategic Priorities IC Reform Areas Business Regulations Fostering Enterprise Creation and Growth Productivity Trade Logistics Investment Generated (domestic or FDI) Unlocking Sustainable Investment in Key Sectors Investment Policy Jobs Private Participation in Health Sector Private Sector Savings - Competition Policy - ICT - Governance/Transparency - Gender/Inclusion - PPD - Green Growth ECONOMIC GROWTH Returns to Creditors Consumer Savings IC reforms impact directly the POOR Cross-cutting Themes: Encouraging Private Participation in Infrastructure and Social sectors (Health and ICT) IC reforms impact Firm Creation Industry: Agribusiness and Tourism Private Participation in Electricity Sector Impact on Poverty Reduction Export Debt Resolution and Business Exit Business Taxation Facilitating International Trade and Investment IC Impact Indicators Improved Infrastructure Reduction in Corruption 3