Labor Market Outlook:
October 2015
15 October 2015
Eylül 2015
NONAGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT DECREASED IN JULY 2015
Seyfettin Gürsel* Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz 
Executive Summary
Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that, compared to the previous period, nonagricultural unemployment
rate increased from 12.6 percent to 12.4 percent (0.2 percentage points) in the period of July 2015. Employment
decreased by 44 thousand in manufacturing while employment increased by 53 thousand and 74 thousand in
construction and services respectively. Betam's forecasting model predicts that seasonally adjusted nonagricultural
unemployment rate will increase in next period.
Year-on-year increase in nonagricultural unemployment weakened
According to data released by TurkStat in the period of July 2015, nonagricultural labor force increased by 940
thousand (4.0 percent), nonagricultural employment increased by 827 thousand (4.0 percent) and nonagricultural
unemployment increased by 113 thousand compared the same period in the previous year (Figure1). Note that
increases in both nonagricultural employment and nonagricultural labor force have grown stronger during this
period. More specifically, the annual increase in nonagricultural employment is quite large compared to increases
recorded during last five years. Thus, a significant part of the increase in nonagricultural labor force was employed
and the increase in nonagricultural unemployment was limited to 113 thousand.
(in thousands)
Figure 1 Year-on-year changes in non-agricultural labor force, employment, and unemployment
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
-1000
-1000
-1200
-1200
-1400
-1400
-1600
-1600
-1800
-1800
Change in non-agricultural employment
Change in non-agricultural labor force*
Change in non-agricultural unemployment
* The change in labor force represented with a negative sign.
Source: Turkstat; Betam
*
Prof. Dr. Seyfettin Gürsel, Betam, Director, seyfettin.gursel@eas.bahcesehir.edu.tr
Yrd. Doç. Dr. Gökçe Uysal, Betam, Assistant Director, gokce.uysal@eas.bahcesehir.edu.tr

Mine Durmaz, Betam, Research Assistant, mine.durmaz@eas.bahcesehir.edu.tr

www.betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr
1
Seasonally adjusted unemployment decreased
According to seasonally adjusted data in the period of July 2015, nonagricultural labor force increased by 41
thousand compared to the period of June 2015, and reached 24 million 200 thousand. Nonagricultural employment
increased by 84 thousand, and reached 21 million 119 thousand (Figure 2, Table 1). In the period of July 2015
compared to the period of June 2015, the number of nonagricultural unemployed decreased by 43 thousand and
nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percent and reduced to 12.4 percent.
25000
15%
24000
14%
23000
22000
13%
21000
20000
12%
19000
11%
18000
17000
10%
16000
15000
9%
NA Labor force
NA Employment
NA Unemployment rate
Source: Turkstat; Betam
Nonagricultural unemployment would increase in next month
Betam's forecasting model had predicted that nonagricultural unemployment would remain at the level of 12.6
percent in the period of July 2015. However, nonagricultural unemployment decreased contrary to our
expectations. Betam's forecasting model estimates that seasonally adjusted nonagricultural unemployment rate will
increase in the period of August 2015. Forecasting model details are available on Betam's website. 1 Kariyer.net2
application per vacancy series used in the Betam forecasting model is depicted in Figure 3. Kariyer.net series is
only one of the inputs of Betam forecast model. Indeed, several variables such as employment agency (İŞKUR)
data, reel sector confidence index, capacity utilization rate are used in forecasting. Taken into account all these
factors, Betam's forecasting model predicts that seasonally adjusted nonagricultural unemployment rate will
increase in the next period.
1
For detailed information on Betam's forecasting model, please see Betam Research Brief 168 titled as "Kariyer.net Verisiyle Kısa Vadeli Tarım
Dışı İşsizlik Tahmini"
http://betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr/tr/2014/06/kariyer-net-verisiyle-kisa-vadeli-tarim-disi-issizlik-tahmini/
Betam Kariyer.net tarafından sağlanan verilerden açık bulunan iş pozisyonu başına yapılan başvuru sayısını hesaplıyor. Bu
seri hem mevsim hem takvim etkilerinden arındırılmıştır. İlan başına başvuru sayısının azalması bir yandan münhal işlerin
artmasına diğer yandan da başvuru sayısının azalmasına bağlıdır. Münhal işlerin artması büyümenin hızlanmasına bağlanırken,
başvuruların azalması iş arayan sayısının azalmasına bağlı olacaktır.
2
www.betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr
2
NA unemployment rate
NA labor force and employment (in thousands)
Figure 2 Seasonally adjusted non-agricultural labor force, employment, and unemployment
Figure 3 Seasonally adjusted nonagricultural unemployment rate and application per vacancy
13.5%
140
12.5%
120
12.0%
110
11.5%
100
11.0%
90
10.5%
80
10.0%
70
9.5%
# applications per vacancy
NA unemployment rate
# applications per vacancy
13.0%
130
NA unemployment rate
Source: Kariyer.net, Turkstat, Betam
Employment losses in manufacturing and agriculture
According to seasonally adjusted labor market series, employment decreased in both agriculture and
manufacturing, and increased in services and construction in the period of July 2015 compared to the period of
June 2015 (Figure 4, Table 2).3 Employment decreased by 24 thousand and 44 thousand in agriculture and
manufacturing respectively. On the other hand, a 53-thousand increase in construction and a 74-thousand increase
in services were recorded.
3
Employment in each sector is seasonally adjusted separately. Hence the sum of these series may differ from the seasonally adjusted series of
total employment. The difference stems from the non-linearity of the seasonal adjustment process
www.betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr
3
Figure 4 Employment by sectors (in thousands)
6500
AGRICULTURE
5600
MANUFACTURING
5400
6000
5200
5000
5500
4800
4600
5000
4400
4200
4500
4000
4000
2200
2000
3800
CONSTRUCTION
14500
SERVICE
14000
13500
1800
13000
1600
12500
1400
12000
11500
1200
11000
1000
10500
800
10000
Source: Turkstat, Betam
www.betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr
4
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted non-agricultural labor force indicators (in thousands)*
June-12
July-12
August-12
September-12
October-12
November-12
December-12
January-13
February-13
March-13
April-13
May-13
June-13
July-13
August-13
September-13
October-13
November-13
December-13
January-14
February-14
March-14
April-14
May-14
June-14
July-14
August-14
September-14
October-14
November-14
December-14
January-15
February-15
March-15
April-15
May-15
June-15
July-15
Labor force
Employment
20691
20793
20865
21067
21185
21358
21455
21522
21478
21592
21780
21843
21848
21838
21900
21965
22007
22006
22253
22502
22785
22938
22999
23081
23170
23270
23357
23564
23691
23732
23735
23852
23887
23815
23890
24079
24159
24200
18663
18714
18758
18876
18982
19094
19138
19219
19201
19260
19406
19462
19488
19414
19447
19483
19586
19585
19827
20004
20256
20369
20400
20404
20390
20361
20461
20571
20706
20718
20768
20894
20973
20933
21023
21117
21115
21199
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
2028
2079
2107
2191
2203
2264
2317
2303
2277
2332
2374
2381
2360
2424
2453
2482
2421
2421
2426
2498
2529
2569
2599
2677
2780
2909
2896
2993
2985
3014
2967
2958
2914
2882
2867
2962
3044
3001
9.8%
10.0%
10.1%
10.4%
10.4%
10.6%
10.8%
10.7%
10.6%
10.8%
10.9%
10.9%
10.8%
11.1%
11.2%
11.3%
11.0%
11.0%
10.9%
11.1%
11.1%
11.2%
11.3%
11.6%
12.0%
12.5%
12.4%
12.7%
12.6%
12.7%
12.5%
12.4%
12.2%
12.1%
12.0%
12.3%
12.6%
12.4%
Monthly changes
Labor force
103
72
202
118
173
97
67
-44
114
188
63
5
-10
62
65
42
-1
247
249
283
153
61
83
89
99
88
206
128
41
3
117
36
-73
75
189
80
41
Employment
51
44
118
106
112
44
81
-18
59
146
56
26
-74
33
36
103
-1
242
177
252
113
31
4
-14
-29
100
110
135
12
50
126
79
-40
90
94
-2
84
Unemployment
52
28
84
12
61
53
-14
-26
55
42
7
-21
64
29
29
-61
0
5
72
31
40
30
79
103
128
-12
96
-7
29
-47
-9
-43
-33
-15
95
82
-43
Source: Turkstat, Betam
5
Table 2 Seasonally adjusted employment by sectors (in thousands)*
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Service
Monthly changes
June-12
5236
4900
1760
12004 Agriculture
July-12
August-12
September-12
October-12
November-12
December-12
January-13
February-13
March-13
April-13
May-13
June-13
July-13
August-13
September-13
October-13
November-13
December-13
January-14
February-14
March-14
April-14
May-14
June-14
July-14
August-14
September-14
October-14
November-14
December-14
January-15
February-15
March-15
April-15
May-15
June-15
July-15
5251
5253
5320
5366
5371
5345
5324
5332
5284
5267
5199
5163
5183
5213
5212
5126
5079
5052
5387
5575
5606
5564
5558
5471
5401
5363
5356
5361
5379
5425
5444
5313
5480
5492
5506
5527
5503
4926
4892
4911
4917
5003
5051
5073
5023
5083
5176
5200
5163
5146
5117
5096
5090
5064
5131
5232
5359
5365
5373
5364
5332
5243
5257
5306
5353
5273
5266
5349
5351
5308
5326
5404
5380
5336
1747
1770
1786
1788
1800
1778
1795
1788
1769
1803
1760
1801
1738
1756
1780
1851
1792
1890
1931
2013
1965
1904
1875
1831
1818
1856
1873
1892
1935
1929
1922
1877
1932
1911
1873
1860
1913
12041
12097
12179
12276
12291
12310
12351
12389
12407
12428
12501
12523
12529
12574
12607
12645
12728
12806
12841
12885
13039
13124
13165
13227
13301
13347
13393
13462
13510
13573
13622
13745
13692
13786
13839
13876
13950
15
2
67
46
5
-26
-21
8
-48
-17
-68
-36
20
30
-1
-86
-47
-27
335
188
31
-42
-6
-87
-70
-38
-7
5
18
46
19
-131
167
12
14
21
-24
Manufacturing
26
-34
19
6
86
48
22
-50
60
93
24
-37
-17
-29
-21
-6
-26
67
101
127
6
8
-9
-32
-89
14
49
47
-80
-7
83
2
-43
18
78
-24
-44
Construction
-13
23
16
2
12
-22
17
-7
-19
34
-43
41
-63
18
24
71
-59
98
41
82
-48
-61
-29
-44
-13
38
17
19
43
-6
-7
-45
55
-21
-38
-13
53
Service
37
56
82
97
15
19
41
38
18
21
73
22
6
45
33
38
83
78
35
44
154
85
41
62
74
46
46
69
48
63
49
123
-53
94
53
37
74
Source: Turkstat, Betam
6