Coherent simulation, forecasting and coordinated management of

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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
6th World Water Forum – Set of Templates for solutions
This document provides the relevant templates to guide and support the 6th World
Water Forum’s working groups.
Please kindly find below:
1. The template for existing solutions
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
Target : 2.1.5 - Elaborate models to be used as tools for decision makers to implement IWRM /
Balance the various uses of water by an integrated management
Title of the Solution: Coherent simulation, forecasting and coordinated management of water
resources tools in a Transboundary mutli-purposes dams Context: That is the role of the Niger
Basin Authority.
EXISTING SOLUTION: The solution is already being implemented and has demonstrated longterm sustainability and added-value.
Key words: Allocation - prediction - Management - dams - Niger Basin - irrigation - hydropower
- Wetlands
DESCRIPTION
Description of the solution
Category (technical, institutional, legal, policy, financial, communication, others (please specify):*
Technical, institutional, financial
Brief description of the solution: *
The NBA has gradually developed and regularly uses a set of technical and legal tools in the function
"IWRM at the watershed scale. The value of solution lies in the control by NBA Experts of
developed tools including:
• additional tools in the areas of: (1) simulation of development scenarios / allocation of the water
resources, (2) prediction of flows, (3) coordinated management of dams in a real situation, (4)
technical analyses on the projects that could have a material impact on the water resources in
application of the water Charter and (5) capitalization of the life cycle of dam projects from
conception to operation;
• tools used in 2007 for the choice of development scenario of the basin based on the construction
of 3 new large dams and in the increase of irrigate areas.
These tools are developed by consultants in NBA premises with the effective participation of NBA
permanent experts in charge of their handling, for a good command and the sustainable use.
The simulation model of the basin management scenarios used is adapted to the specific issues of
this large basin of 1.5 million km², notably:
-
Taking over water to downstream structures and great distance from demand sites to
storage sites
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
-
Date
annual hydrological variability
huge wetland of global interest
incorporation of a requirement of fairness between the countries for the withdrawals of
irrigation based on the principle of iso-satisfaction which provides that the controlled
resource must satisfy the increase in demand along the Niger River in a particular country if
it is able to meet increase in other countries.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 300 words
Location
Where was/is the solution implemented?*
The whole Niger River Basin with special emphasis on the main river, where it’s planned the largest
increase in water demand and major new dams.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 50 words
Actors
Who had initiated the project? What were the stakeholders’ drivers?
Which actors proved strategic in the implementation? At what stage were they brought in?
Who has ensured follow-up of the solution at the local level?
All these tools have been developed during the development process of the shared vision that led
to the Action Plan for sustainable development (PADD) by 2025, in the investment programme of
2008-2027 and of the water Charter adopted by all the nine (9) Member States of the NBA in April
2008. Indeed, the Plan includes a master plan for water resources which analyses the accounting
and complementarity between planned structuring hydraulic works... This collaborative planning
process has benefited from the support of TPF such as the World Bank, France, European Union,
Germany, Canada, the African Development Bank which are the active members of the Advisory
Committee of NBA partners and have funded tools, or training of the concerned experts.
In the local level, NBA has planned herself to give necessary time to experts to exercise these
simulations, analysis and forecasts. Through its current support, FDA facilitates this
professionalization of IWRM.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 150 words
STRATEGIC FIT & ADDED VALUE
Problem to solve
Key question your solution aims to answer (i.e. if your Solution is the answer, then what is the
question) and how does that fit with the target?*
How does the solution contribute to the target’s effective implementation and attainment?
Key question: How can an international basin organization faced with allocation problem being able
to manage over time and with professionalism, its functions of integrated management of water
resources?
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
The proposed solution answers the question because:
- tools have been developed internally, proof of good command, with the strong contribution of
external consultants;
- experts in charge of their use are permanent Executives (staff) of the NBA;
- compliance by countries in the obligation to notify their installations and structures that may have
impacts on water resources, to other countries via the NBA. As a result, the NBA receives a flow of
files which are treated with the allocating model and the water resources management. This is the
recent case of the analysis of impacts of the future Kandadji dam (Niger) associated with the
downstream irrigated areas ...
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 100 words
Added-value and cost effectiveness
What are the solution’s key outputs and what impacts did the solution have given the investment
level (not only financial)?*
Can the solution continue to deliver tangible impacts on the long term?*
The main products and impacts are:
- the choice in 2007 of a Watershed Management consensually agreed by countries at the political
level, through simulations,
- illustration of the Fomi dam (Guinea ) impact on the Inner Niger Delta (Mali) for inclusion in its
management arrangements;
- trigger arrangements for financing dams ;
- rise of the technical functions of the NBA for developing quality information resulting to a high
confidence of the countries
- rise of technical functions and the hydrological monitoring, is likely to encourage users to
participate in the financing of services (see 1.5.6 innovative solution to the NBA )
The long term depends on the NBA ability to hold among its members, experts trained and
experienced in use of these tools.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 100 words
Monitoring
In the process of effectively implementing this solution, what are some of the key qualitative and
quantitative indicators of success over time (i.e. what would you expect to see change, where and
when)?*
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
Success indicators:
- effective use of tools by experts in the form of analysis notes, forecast bulletins, capitalization
sheets of the dams project cycle,
- adjustment of management practices and / or characteristics of structures and practices based on
the analysis produced by the NBA (eg restriction of the irrigated area into countryside)
- enhanced process validation steps of dams cycle project (ESIA, feasibility, etc ... )
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 100 words
WIDER APPLICATION
Replication and up scaling potential
Given your experience, who would / should be most interested in this Solution and why? How will it
help them?*
In what context do you think this solution could / would work best and why?*
Given your experience, what would be needed to upscale this solution, for example to a political
or/and a regional level?*
The modeling tools used:
► IWRM Model is used to :
- analyze the impacts of carried projects or to be performed on water resources;
- respond to requests from countries on the feasibility of their projects;
- help making political decision;
► Hydro-economic module: coupled of the IWRM model + an economic module, it allows to :
- analyse the basin development scenarios in terms of economic calculation: calculation of the
Internal Rate of Return, sensitivity calculation;
- calculate the productions : agricultural, hydroelectric , fisheries;
- calculate the number of days of navigation in brief.
► Dam reservoir management Module, it can be used by dams managers to optimize reservoir
management to meet the sectoral needs according to the present hydrological conditions;
► SIP forecasting model, allows to:
- make flow forecasting at hydrological stations at various times (short, medium, long);
- predict the date and the maximum discharge.
To make these tools more effective and sustainable, hydrometrical data collection must be
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
improved and strengthened.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 300 words
Key lessons learnt
What tips and guidance (dos and don’ts) would you give to others interested in applying this solution
in their own context?*
What is the minimum investment necessary (in terms of human resources, time,
energy, infrastructure, financial resources, political will, etc.) in order to effectively implement this
solution?*
What are the main factors of success that you wish to emphasize?*
- The political will of countries sharing the Niger basin is to manage and develop natural resources in
a concerted manner.
- minimum investment: 3 to 4 experts, well equipped office with two large-capacity PC, two laptops,
one printer, six months of work and one Mike Basin license and Computer system for hydrological
forecasting (SIP).
- Financial resources: IWRM Model: 750 000 euros; SIP Model: 175 000 euros.
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 400 words
Existing commitments
Have some organisations/institutions/committees already committed to implement or replicate this
solution?*
The Water Standing Committee of the Senegal River Development Organization, OMVS (Mali,
Mauritania, Senegal and Guinea) is based on a reservoir management model to allocate water
resources to various users in the three countries.
Les organismes de bassins suivants envisagent la réplication de ces outils développés à l’ABN dans le
cadre de la gestion des ressources en eau partagées :
The following Basin Organizations are considering the replication of the developed tools in the NBA
as part of the management of shared water resources:
- Nile Basin Initiative
- Volta Basin Authority (VBA)
- Commission of the Lake Chad Basin (LCBC)
- International Commission of the Congo-Ubangi-Sangha Basin (ICCUS)
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 100 words
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Strategic Direction: 6th World Water Forum SD
Priority for Action: 6th World Water Forum PFA/CS
Date
CONTACT*
Key contact institution
Where can people go for more information, help or advice on this solution?*
Details of the contact person* (e.g. name, address, e-mail or phone number)
-
Dr Abdou GUERO (NBA Technical Director)
email : abdou.guero@gmail.com ; tel : (+227) 96 99 46 10
-
M. Robert DESSOUASSI (Head of the Niger Basin Observatory)
email : dessouassi@abn.ne / dessouassi2003@yahoo.fr; tél : (+227) 96 87 28 13
-
M. Abdoulaye DOUMBIA Head of Operation Division,
email : abdoumbia@yahoo.fr; tel : (+227) 94 24 67 04
-
M. Soungalo KONE, Modeling Expert,
email : k_soung@yahoo.fr / k_soung@abn.ne ; tél : (+227) 94 30 66 33
Note: Open text entry field – word limit: 100 words
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Supporting material
Website, Video, podcast, report, PowerPoint presentation, photo album, creative support, etc:
please do not hesitate to send us as attachment to this template any supporting material to be
circulated about your solution!
The presentation will be made on power point.
Your material will be uploaded on the Platform to be consulted by all.
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