Neg
1NC
Maduro needs to stay true to anti-US rhetoric to maintain his political
credibility and prevent domestic instability
O’Reilly, 4/17 – (Andrew, Founder and former Editor-in-Chief of Latin America News Dispatch, BA in journalism from
the University of Pittsburgh, MA in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University; also citing Larry Birns with
the Council for Hemispheric Affairs, “U.S.-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim,” Fox News Latino, 17
April 2013, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-expertsclaim/)//HO
While the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for
sure is that relations between the United States and the administration of President-elect
Nicolás Maduro will continue to be as tense as under the late Hugo Chávez, experts said.¶ After voting on Sunday in
a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish relations with the U.S. “in terms of
equality and respect,” Washington will always try to undermine his rule.¶ These words followed a
steady rhetoric on the campaign trail of Maduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and
causing disruptions in Venezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor unions and causing
electric power blackouts. ¶ Experts argue that given Maduro’s anti-American sentiments leading up to the
election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory and the polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a
change in relations between the countries.¶ It’s hard to see [Maduro] backing off his rhetoric in
the aftermath of the election...Americans will insist on a level of respect that he is not going to
give them.¶ The death of Hugo Chávez put Maduro and the rest of the Venezuelan left in a difficult position.
Chávez’s charisma held the movement together and his social spending allowed him to skirt the
dicey issues of rising inflation, high crime and a fledgling economy.¶ While the current election results are
still being debated, how Maduro faces the country’s mounting problems – both politically and socially – are
what will decide [if] he and Chavismo survive his six-year term.¶ In 2009, Chávez led a successful push for a
constitutional referendum that abolished term limits for the offices of President, state governors, mayors and congress members.
The previous provision established a three-term limit for deputies and a two-term limit for the other offices, but with the 2009
referendum, Chávez – or any other leader – could ostensibly stay in power indefinitely. Maduro does not have the
charm or power to hold the Chavista movement together nor make Venezuelans forget about the
problems plaguing their nation. If Sunday’s vote is any indication, Venezuela is torn between Chávez’s legacy and a
dismal future, with the official results giving Maduro 51 percent of the vote to challenger Henrique Capriles’ 49 percent – although
opposition sources showed Capriles winning by more than 300,000 votes.¶ “Chávez could overcome the detractors
because he was viewed as a national hero, Maduro doesn’t have that,” said Larry Birns with the Council for
Hemispheric Affairs.¶ To maintain his credibility within the Chavista movement and fend
off opponents from within his own party, Maduro needs to maintain his opposition
to the U.S. and continue to paint Americans as imperialist intruders, experts said.¶ “He’s
got to worry about the opponents that will pose a threat to his rule,” Birns said. “These are difficult times for Maduro
and no one knows how the scenario will play out.Ӧ For its part, the United States is not in better shape when it
comes to its relations with Venezuela – or other Latin American nations. Diplomatic disputes with Venezuela and touchy relations
with neighboring Bolivia and Ecuador have led to a schism between the United States and the countries in the Bolivarian Alliance for
the Americas.
This turns the whole aff – destroys oil sector and economy
Ladislaw and Verrastro, 13 – (Sarah O. Ladislaw is co-director and senior fellow with the Energy and
National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Frank Verrastro is
senior vice president and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS; “Post-Chavez Outlook for Venezuelan Oil
Production,” 6 March 2013, http://csis.org/publication/post-chavez-outlook-venezuelan-oil-production)//HO
The winds of change are once again blowing in Venezuela. The recent announcement of Hugo Chavez’s passing has
opened up a host of questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and the potential impact
this leadership transition could have on Venezuelan oil production and global oil markets.¶
Venezuela is one of the largest oil and natural gas resource holders in the world. It is among the world’s largest oil producers (13th)
and exporters (10th) and has historically been one of the United States’ largest sources of oil imports (4th behind Canada, Saudi
Arabia and Mexico). Ever since the failed coup and the subsequent strike that brought about a short collapse in oil production in
2002, followed by nationalization of the oil sector, onlookers have been waiting for indications that the
regime’s approach to energy production would either fail once and for all or that some political
change would bring about reform and rejuvenation of the energy sector. A political transition in Venezuela
is now upon us but how it evolves could mean a lot for the energy sector and global energy
markets.¶ Despite its enormous oil resources, Venezuela's oil production (regardless of whose figures you
use) has long been in steady decline. In 2011 liquids production was 2.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) , down a
million barrels per day since 1999. Some of this is reflects the changing cost and economics of Venezuelan oil production but field
decline is significant and expertise and reinvestment are questionable and looking harder to come by. The internal technical and
managerial capabilities of state run oil and gas company PDVSA have deteriorated since the 2002 strike and aftermath. Increasingly,
PDVSA relies on contractors, as well as other private company partners, to keep the fields in production but reports state that
contractors have not been paid in months and that the political uncertainty in the country has even driven routine decision making
to a halt.¶ The sustained political uncertainty has also slowed investment; Russian and
Indian companies were planning to invest in Venezuela's oil fields but so far have withheld
incremental new money. China has not announced a new line of credit or extensions on its
development-linked financing since last April.¶ At the same time that production is dropping, highly
subsidized domestic consumption of oil is increasing while revenue from exports
is also declining. The United States remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports at 950,000 barrels per day in
2011, roughly 40 percent, plus another 185,000 barrels per day from the Caribbean that was Venezuelan sourced but those volumes
area down as U.S. demand has declined and other crudes have become available. Venezuela's next largest export destinations are the
Caribbean (31 percent) and then China (around 10 percent) . Venezuela sells to many of its Caribbean neighbors at below market
rates due to extremely preferential financing relationships, including additional heavy subsidies for Cuban exports. All of this
culminates in an outlook for continued decline in oil production and a worsening economic
outlook for Venezuela during a politically difficult time.¶ However, conventional wisdom argues that
maintaining oil production is in the interest of any regime. Revenue from oil production is such
a large part of Venezuela’s government balance sheet that no leadership could survive for long
without a sustained cash flow that oil exports bring. The converse of this argument is that revenues generated by
the energy sector are such an important source of power and influence in Venezuela that there is potential for infighting over control
of the sector. Moreover, the potential for strikes or instability among groups involved in the sector (some
of whom have not been paid) could have additional negative impacts on production.¶ While oil markets have so
far taken the news of Chavez’s demise in stride (many claim because the news was largely expected, others because the political
outcome is still so uncertain) an actual disruption in Venezuelan production could add
pressure to an already difficult market outlook. The last year has produced a number of supply
disruptions around the world from OPEC, the Middle East North Africa region, as well as non-OPEC sources. If the economic
outlook continues to improve and yield an increase global energy demand, if Iran sanctions remain in
place, and if Venezuelan production be compromised, then oil prices would experience much
more significant upside pressure from any new disruptions.
2NC Link Wall
Waffling on his stance on the US causes multiple sources of internal
backlash
Jared Metzker (writer for Inter-Press Service) June 17, 2013 “Analysts Say Oil Could Help
Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations” http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-helpmend-u-s-venezuela-relations/
The new president’s waffling may be a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many
accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed
military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.¶ In addition to a strong antiChavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro
has had to deal with a split within Chavez’s own former political base.¶ Shifter pointed out that
among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez, more support is
given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuela’s parliament and whose supporters
believe he was the rightful heir to the presidency.¶ Maduro’s legitimacy stems largely from his
perceived ideological fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place.
Shifter said this leads him to “emulate” his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the
United States less probable.
The plan makes Caprile’s gambit to peel away moderate support from
disillusioned supporters of Maduro sustainable – magnifies our links
Ben Cohen (writer for Commentary Magazine) July 30, 2013 “In Venezuela, Chavez Still
Haunts Maduro” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/07/30/in-venezuela-chavezstill-haunts-maduro/
Legal documents have similarly been missing from another controversial case involving Richard
Mardo, a parliamentarian from the opposition MUD coalition. Mardo is accused of receiving
funds --of approximately $100 million–the source of this money has not been specified–and of
declaring only a tiny a fraction of this sum. However, Henrique Capriles, the MUD leader who
stood against Maduro during the April election, is adamant that Mardo is the victim of
entrapment. As with El Nacional, the real goal here, say MUD supporters, is to silence the
opposition by throwing the charge of corruption–an offense normally leveled at the
government–in its direction.¶ Given how agonizingly polarized Venezuelan politics have become,
the absence of mass street demonstrations might seem surprising. Capriles, though, has
eschewed this approach, opting instead for a strategy of patiently exposing Maduro’s corruption
wherever it appears, in the hope of weaning away disillusioned supporters of the regime.
Whether this method is sustainable is an open question; the emergence of a “birther” movement
in Venezuela, which claims that Maduro was actually born in Colombia and is demanding that
the president follow Barack Obama’s example by releasing his birth certificate, indicates that the
more uncompromising opponents of Venezuela’s regime are determined to get rid of it sooner
rather than later.
Plan also independently causes a military coup
Benedict Mander (writer for the Financial Times, Caracas correspondent) April 7, 2013
“Maduro needs military’s loyalty” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5ce622a-9f71-11e2-b4b600144feabdc0.html#axzz2asuzlqGP
From the moment the late Hugo Chávez first burst on to the national stage with a military coup
21 years ago, to his final resting place in the barracks where he led that failed uprising, his close
connection with Venezuela’s army was never in any doubt.¶ But the former lieutenant colonel’s
successor, Nicolás Maduro, who is widely expected to win Venezuela’s presidential elections on
April 14, does not enjoy the same relationship with the military, whose power grew markedly
under Chávez, and could now even pose a threat to Mr Maduro.¶ Although Mr Maduro has ample
experience as a trade union activist, legislator and diplomat, he may struggle to maintain the
fierce loyalty that Chávez created among senior military officials, perhaps the most powerful
faction in the disparate movement known as “chavismo”.¶ “There are concerns in the military
high command about Maduro,” says Antonio Rivero, a retired general who left the army in 2010
in protest at Cuban influence, and is now affiliated with the opposition. Some question Mr
Maduro’s legitimacy, others his competence, while others are suspicious of his status as a
civilian.¶ “Chávez knew how to talk to the army, he knew how to demand obedience and
discipline. Maduro hasn’t the slightest idea,” adds Gen Rivero, describing him as “the complete
opposite to Chávez” in the army’s eyes. “It’s an issue that is being monitored, evaluated and
discussed internally, both by chavistas and non-chavistas.”¶ The army’s presence in government
is strong. During the former tank commander’s 14-year rule, he spread martial ideals in an
attempt to achieve a “civic-military union”. Today, former military officers run 11 of the 20 state
governorships held by Venezuela’s United Socialist party, and account for a quarter of the
cabinet.¶ That includes the defence minister, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, who explicitly
backed Chávez’s handpicked successor after his death on March 5. “Now more than ever, the
armed forces must unite to ensure Maduro is the next elected president of all Venezuelans,” the
admiral said.¶ The opposition, already scandalised by a 115,000-strong militia set up by Chávez
to defend his “Bolivarian revolution”, strongly rejected Admiral Molero’s statement, pointing
out that the constitution forbids the armed forces to take sides. The opposition even claims there
is a plan to use military resources to intimidate Venezuelans into voting for Mr Maduro.¶ Mr
Maduro has been backed by other key military figures too, including Diosdado Cabello, the head
of the national assembly who participated alongside Chávez in the 1992 coup attempt, even
though he is widely considered Mr Maduro’s most powerful rival. With his strong military
following, some question how long that loyalty will last.¶ Either way, the army’s support is crucial
for any president. “Very lamentably, political power in Venezuela has always depended on two
things: oil wealth and the armed forces,” said Rocío San Miguel, who runs Citizen Control,
which monitors Venezuelan security issues.¶ Ms San Miguel argues that the armed forces are
split into opposing factions, some of which are concerned about the prospect of a Maduro
presidency.¶ Especially sensitive is how he will respond to accusations concerning a group of
high-ranking officers dubbed the “Cartel of the Suns”, because of the gold stars worn on their
epaulettes. Under Chávez, Venezuela became an important transshipment hub for trafficking
cocaine to the US and Europe.¶ Walid “The Turk” Makled, a drug lord captured in 2011, claims
he had as many as 40 generals in his pay.¶ Since 2008, the US Treasury Department has also
accused a number of senior military and government officials of being “kingpins” and
collaborating with the Colombian rebel group FARC, including the exchange of weapons for
drugs. They include former defence minister and head of the army, Henry Rangel Silva, now
governor of Trujillo state, and former interior minister and retired naval officer Ramón
Rodríguez Chacín, now governor of Guárico state. The government has denied these
accusations.¶ Military officials have also been accused of involvement in other dubious activities,
such as illegal gold mining after 43 soldiers were captured in southern Bolívar state by irate
indigenous groups this year, and petrol smuggling, a business which could yield as much as a
billion dollars each year.¶ Whether Mr Maduro is seen as a threat or a help to the military’s
interests remains to be seen. Gen Rivero thinks he may have to become “very generous” to keep
some officers happy, through pay rises or handing out new cars. However, Venezuela may have
trouble keeping up the immense spending on Russian arms that Chávez indulged in to keep the
military happy.¶ Most analysts reject the threat of a coup, but it is not inconceivable. “In the last
century, five years haven’t gone by without groups of officers being involved in conspiratorial
activities,” said Domingo Irwin, a Venezuelan military historian. Indeed, Hugo Chávez was one
of them
Uniqueness
Maduro Sustainable
Maduro will stay in power now – diplomatic spats are only assurances
of regime stability
Sanchez, 6/4 – (W. Alex, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, “Venezuela’s Maduro attempts
to assert his presidency,” 4 June 2013, http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/06/04/venezuelas-maduro-attemptsto-assert-his-presidency/)//HO
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has had a rough couple of months. After controversially winning the April 14 elections, he
has been trying to strengthen his power in the eyes of the international community. Several
nations whose leaders were close to his mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, have recognized Maduro’s victory. And in early
May, he embarked on a “good will” tour, visiting Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay . Nevertheless, other
governments are still hesitant to recognize Maduro’s leadership, namely the U.S. What’s more, recent diplomatic incidents,
including verbal spats with the governments of Colombia and Peru, are showing a controversial side of Maduro’s personality and
testing his leadership skills.¶ The (latest) controversy with Colombia was prompted by a recent meeting between Governor Henrique
Capriles Randonsk i, the Venezuelan opposition candidate who ran against Maduro in April, and Colombian President Juan Manuel
Santos. Maduro saw this meeting as an insult to his government, as Capriles has been trying to rally international support to
overturn the election results. Maduro derided the excuse that the Santos-Capriles meeting was a “misunderstanding ” by the
Colombian government, claiming instead that Bogotá is the center of a conspiracy that aims to overthrow the post-Chávez
government. In retaliation, the Venezuelan leader declared that his country may review its role in the ongoing Colombian peace
process between the government and the FARC guerrillas. It is safe to assume that Santos knew beforehand that a meeting with
Capriles would stir controversy in Caracas, meaning this may have been a tactical move by the Colombian head of state to see how
Maduro would react. Furthermore, the extent of Venezuela’s influence in the ongoing negotiations is debatable, accusations that the
Colombian rebels use Venezuelan territory as a safe haven notwithstanding.¶ In early May, Maduro also butted heads with the (now)
former Peruvian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rafael Roncagliolo, who called for “tolerance and dialogue ” to stop violent protests in
Venezuela after the controversial results of the elections. This statement provoked the wrath of Maduro, who declared on May 3 that
Roncagliolo should not get involved in Venezuelan domestic affairs and that “we [Venezuelans] do not care what the Peruvian
minister thinks about Venezuela.” As for Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, who was arguably sympathetic to Chávez, he has been
ambivalent regarding Maduro. Nevertheless, Humala saved himself from further embarrassment – or at the very least from entering
into a new war of words with Maduro – as Capriles decided at the last moment to temporarily suspend a trip to Lima that had been
scheduled for Tuesday, June 4. If the Peruvian leader had met with Capriles, we would have witnessed an even angrier Maduro.
Meanwhile, some Peruvian politicians have not missed the opportunity to attack Humala over the Capriles trip. For example,
Congressman Luis Iberico provocatively declared that “the only reason why [Humala] would not receive Capriles is for ideological
reasons or for another type of dependency towards Chavismo.”¶ Apart Bogotá and Lima, Maduro has been unable to secure highlevel visits from Chávez’s friends in Moscow and Beijing. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev skipped Venezuela when he did
a mini-tour of Latin America in February, traveling instead to Brazil and Cuba. At the time of this writing, Chinese President Xi
Jinping is on a tour of the Western Hemisphere, with stops planned in Costa Rica, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, as well as the U.S.
– but no Caracas.¶ Given that the opposition movement led by Capriles has lost its momentum, it is
unlikely that Maduro’s presidency is in jeopardy. And while Capriles’ trips to Bogotá and to Lima, if the latter ever
happens, may gain him some international sympathy, it seems clear that Maduro will remain in power as Chávez’s
successor. If anything, statements towards the governments of Colombia and Peru may serve the
purpose of making it clear that Maduro will not tolerate any questioning of his electoral victory.
At the domestic level, look for the pro-government media (read the entire media following the sale of
Globovision ) to showcase that message to the Venezuelan masses as an example of Maduro’s
statesmanship.
Anti-US
No engagement now – Maduro cut off all ties with the US
El Universal, 7/20 – (El Universal, “Maduro: Venezuela will have "zero tolerance" for aggressions of Washington,”
20 July 2013, http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130720/maduro-venezuela-will-have-zero-tolerance-foraggressions-of-washingto)//HO
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday described as "terminated" his government-initiated
talks with Barack Obama administration. He stressed he would implement a "zero tolerance"
policy for "aggressions" on Venezuela.¶ "My policy as president is zero tolerance for gringo
aggression against Venezuela. I am not going to stand any verbal aggression against Venezuela,
neither political nor diplomatic. Enough is enough! Stay away with your empire. Do not mess any
more with Venezuela," said Maduro during a ceremony of military promotions in Cojedes state, central Venezuela.¶ The
Venezuelan president also reiterated his rejection and condemnation of the statements issued by
Samantha Power, the Washington ambassador nominee to the United Nations, on Venezuela. "When
she went to Congress, she went crazy and started to attack Venezuela just like that. She started to say that she is going to the UN to
monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of
democracy in Venezuela."¶ Maduro mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister
warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not accept any pressures in connection with
Caracas' offer to grant asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified
information on espionage programs.
Maduro’s Snowden offer proves anti-americans sentiment is still
strong in Venezuela
Wall Street Journal, 7/7/13, (O’Grady, staff writer, “Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to
Snowden”, 7/07/2013, U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578590503856740838.html)//LO
H
Edward Snowden, the former U.S. government contractor wanted for leaking sensitive national intelligence, is a victim of
"persecution" by "the world's most powerful empire," Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said on Friday. Mr. Maduro offered
asylum to the fugitive, who was running out of prospects. Nicaragua and Bolivia have chimed in with similar offers. What plans are
afoot to spirit Mr. Snowden from his Moscow airport sanctuary—assuming he accepts refuge in Latin America—are of course secret.
Mr. Maduro would have us believe that his gesture is a demonstration of Venezuela's commitment to free speech and its fierce
opposition to withholding information from the public. He also wants
the world to know that he disapproves of
secret government intelligence-gathering operations. Funny that. Venezuela has expressed no such righteous
indignation about information suppression by allies. Take Argentina, which has recently refused to allow its special prosecutor
Alberto Nisman to travel to Washington and brief a U.S. congressional committee about intelligence collected on Iranian and
Hezbollah terror cells in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Nisman's 500-page report on the subject is public but in a July 1 letter to the
U.S. Congress he said that by order of the Argentine attorney general he has been "denied the authorization to testify before the
honorable parliament." Mr. Maduro's lack of concern about Argentina's information suppression deserves attention. His offer of
refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to distract Venezuelans from the
increasingly difficult daily economic grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a
thumb in Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else. Venezuela has reason to fear increasing irrelevance as North
America becomes more energy independent. This makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself
as a leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, who
had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also
needs to establish his own place in South American politics. Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a
way to send a message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John Kerry's feeble attempt
at rapprochement with Caracas last month, post-Chávez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course
of the Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is
signaling that Venezuela wants to become an even more loyal geopolitical ally and
strategic partner of Russia and Iran. Mr. Maduro's presidency is still viewed as illegitimate by roughly half of
the Venezuelan electorate, who voted for challenger Henrique Capriles in April. The official rate of the currency known as the "strong
bolívar" is 6.3 to the dollar. But a shortage of greenbacks has forced importers into the black market where the currency trades at
somewhere between 31 and 37. There are price controls on just about everything, producing shortages of food and medicine. Even
so, inflation is now hovering at around 35%, which means that some vendors are skirting government mandates. In a free society
with competitive elections, economic chaos generally prompts a government response designed to mitigate hardship. Venezuela
needs liberalization. But that would threaten the profits of the military, which is largely running the
country. When the nation ran out of toilet paper in the spring, it was the perfect metaphor for the failed state. But Mr. Maduro's
foreign minister, Elias Jaua, responded by scolding Venezuelans for materialism, asking, "Do you want a fatherland or toilet paper?"
If the government is saying that it doesn't give a damn about the economic death spiral, this is because it believes it has the nation in
a head lock. State control of information—by a president who has now become the world's foremost defender of Mr. Snowden—is
almost complete. The last large independent cable television station was finally sold in April and the independent print media
market is shrinking. Another tool of repression, which Mr. Snowden supposedly abhors, is the ability to spy on citizens. Chávez had
no compunction about recording the conversations of adversaries, and the practice continues under Mr. Maduro. Competing
factions inside the government may even be getting into the act. Two recent high-profile cases—one involving a well-known
government insider alleging crimes by members of the government in a conversation with the Cuban military, and another targeting
an opposition politician—have increased the feeling among citizens that there is no such thing as a private conversation. Yet even a
government that locks down the press and spies on its own citizens without answering for it needs allies. No nation can survive in
full isolation, especially when its economic power collapses. Latin despots get this. Argentina is depositing goodwill in its account
with Iran by blocking Alberto Nisman's trip to Washington. Venezuela, by offering refuge to Edward Snowden, is
undoubtedly making a similar offering to the enemies of its enemies.
No coop now
Snowden killed any potential for Venezuela-US engagement
Ahmed, 7/28 – (Soroor, “Snowden helps revive anti-US feelings in Latin America,” NVO News, 28 July 2013,
http://nvonews.com/2013/07/28/snowden-helps-revive-anti-us-feelings-in-latin-america-2/)//HO
The Presidents of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, of Bolivia Evo Morales and of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega are
ready to offer
Snowden asylum.¶ In fact apart from Morales, Maduro and Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa were recently in Moscow to
attend energy summit. Besides other issues Snowden was definitely high on agenda during the meetings with
Russian leaders. These Latin American countries have also developed close trade relationship with
China, which too is a cause of concern for the United States.¶ Maduro said Venezuela was ready
to offer him sanctuary, and that the details Snowden had revealed of US spy programme had
exposed the nefarious schemes of the “empire” while Ortega said that it had received an asylum request from
Snowden and could agree to it if circumstances permit.¶ Though Brazil, the largest country of the region, had not offered any asylum
reports suggest that it is much disturbed over snooping by the NSA. The country is already passing through a phase of turmoil ahead
of 2014 World Cup. Its foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, expressed “deep concern” over a report that appeared in O Globo
newspaper at the weekend, which detailed how the US National Security Agency (NSA) had conducted extensive spying activities in
Brazil.¶ This came after the Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, called in cabinet ministers to discuss the issue.¶ Brazil is among the
most heavily spied country after Russia, China and Pakistan. It remains to be seen as to why the NSA chose to spy non-adversarial
countries of Europe, Asia and even Latin America.¶ In this uni-polar world it was expected that the anti-US
feelings would subside. There was no Soviet or Chinese-backed Communist ideology to whip up this passion. Obama, in his
initial years, did try to extent the hands of friendship towards them. But NSA leaks have exposed everything once
again.¶ The exploitation of almost all the countries south of the United States by Washington is
not a new phenomenon. It has a long history. The CIA has in the past killed a number of Latin American heads of states.
Staging coups and counter-coups were not something unusual.¶ Snowden’s revelations––and earlier WikiLeaks exposures–
–have made it clear that the United States have not given up its practice. ¶ The role of European countries
appear some what dubious. Though they are the victims of NSA design yet they eagerly agreed to the Washington diktat and got the
plane of an elected President of a country grounded.¶ Thus like the United States they have alienated themselves from these
countries, some of them energy rich. In the long run they may have to pay the price.
Default to newest evidence – Venezuela has no intention of
cooperating with the US despite past signals
Minaya 13 (Ezequiel, “Venezuela Ends Attempt to Repair Diplomatic Relations With U.S.”,
July 20, The Wall Street Journal,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323993804578618223346497776.html)//DL
G
The Venezuelan government has ended fledgling efforts to repair diplomatic relations with
Washington in protest of comments made earlier in the week by Samantha Power, the nominee for
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who grouped the South American country among nations carrying out a "crackdown on civil
society."¶ Venezuela's foreign ministry released a statement late Friday that "categorically rejected" Ms. Power's
statement and criticized
the State Department for backing U.S. President Barack Obama's choice for envoy to
said that steps that began last month to normalize
diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas have been shelved.¶ In June, Secretary of State John Kerry met with his
the U.N. amid the controversy.¶ The ministry statement
Venezuelan counterpart on the sidelines of the general assembly of the Organization of American States held in Guatemala.¶ The
meeting brought together the most senior officials from the estranged countries since Mr. Obama shook hands with Venezuela's
then-leader Hugo Chávez in 2009. After the meeting between the top diplomats, both sides expressed hope that more talks would
follow aimed at repairing relations. The countries have not traded ambassadors since 2010.¶ "With the backing of the
state department for the interventionist agenda presented by the candidate for ambassador,
Samantha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela leaves for finished the processes initiated in the
conversations of Guatemala," Venezuela's foreign ministry statement said.¶ During her nomination hearing before the
U.S. senate committee on foreign relations Wednesday, Ms. Power said that as ambassador to the U.N., she would "stand up against
repressive regimes, fight corruption, and promote human rights and human dignity." Part of that battle meant "contesting the
crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela," she added, according to an official
transcript. In a Friday briefing with reporters in Washington, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf called Ms. Power an
"outstanding nominee," and added that "we fully stand by her."¶ Relations between Caracas and Washington have been strained
since Mr. Chavez assumed the presidency in 1999. The fiery socialist called longtime U.S. foe Fidel Castro his mentor and was among
the loudest opponents of U.S. influence in the region, often referring to the U.S. as the "empire." Mr. Chavez routinely accused the
U.S. of plotting to overthrow his government and reserved some of his most scathing comments for former U.S. President George W.
Bush. Mr. Chavez died in March after a nearly two-year battle with cancer.¶ Mr. Chavez's political heir, recently elected President
Nicolás Maduro, has followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and aimed harsh rhetoric at Washington, which angered the new
leader by backing calls for a recount of his slim election victory in April.¶ Despite the campaign-trail saber-rattling directed toward
the U.S., Mr. Maduro and his government sent signals hinting at hopes for better relations with the U.S. that
culminated in the June meeting with Mr. Kerry.¶ Those hopes were
seriously jeopardized when Caracas stepped
into the middle of the controversy surrounding U.S. National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden and offered
him asylum in early July. Venezuela is widely seen as among Mr. Snowden's most likely destinations.
Relations and interactions are down the drain
PTV 13– Press TV, (“No dialogue unless US changes imperialistic stance: Venezuela”, July 24,
2013, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/24/315416/us-must-end-imperialistic-stancemaduro/)//sawyer
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro says Caracas-Washington ties could not be normalized
unless the US ends its “imperialistic attitude” towards Latin America.Improved
relations with the United States “does not depend on just us, it depends on them (US). If they
can rectify (this) and are able to, which I doubt , there will be another position; we will renew
dialogue,” Maduro told a cheering audience in the Caribbean state of Monagas on Tuesday. On Friday, Venezuela said
it was ending efforts to improve ties with Washington that started in early June. The
decision followed remarks by US President Barack Obama’s nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations. During her
confirmation hearing before a US Senate committee on July 17, Samantha Power pledged to
oppose what she called a crackdown on civil society in a number of countries, including
Venezuela. On July 18, Maduro denounced Power’s remarks as “outrageous” and
demanded “an immediate correction by the US government.” Venezuela and the
United States have not exchanged ambassadors since 2010. But on the sidelines of a regional summit in
Guatemala in June, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua agreed that officials would “soon”
meet for talks that could lead to an exchange of envoys. But the strain in relations between the two nations have
intensified following the US support for Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who
disputed the results of the April presidential election, in which Maduro won the race with nearly
51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Capriles. In March, Caracas expelled two US military
attaches on charges of making attempts to foment instability in Venezuela. Recently, Venezuela has
offered asylum to Edward Snowden, a former technical contractor for the US National Security
Agency (NSA) who is wanted in the United States for leaking details of Washington’s secret
surveillance programs.
No cooperation now – Snowden, Power statement
AP 13 – Associated Press (“maduro demands retraction”, July 18, 2013,
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/07/18/5577833/maduro-demands-retraction.html)//sawyer
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has lashed out at Washington's U.N. ambassador-designate for
what he called her "despicable" criticism of his government's human rights record.Maduro
demanded Thursday evening that the United States retract Samantha Power's statement that
Venezuela, along with Cuban, Iran and Russia, is guilty of a "crackdown on civil society."Power spoke Wednesday during
confirmation hearings before a U.S. Senate committee.Hopes were raised for improved U.S.-Venezuelan ties in
June when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua met
on the sidelines of a regional summit and agreed to fast-track talks for resuming ambassadoriallevel ties absent since 2010.But prospects dimmed after Maduro later offered asylum
to U.S. leaker Edward Snowden.
Recent controversy over Senate confirmation hearings derail further
bilateral engagement
BBC News 7/20, Section of the British Broadcasting Corporation responsible for gathering
and broadcasting news and current events. It is the world's largest broadcasting news
organization(BBC, "Venezuela 'ends' bid to restore full US ties" 7/20/13,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23387807)//AD
Venezuela says it has "ended" steps towards restoring diplomatic ties with the US, after
comments by the woman nominated as the next envoy to the UN. ¶ Samantha Power said this
week she would seek to combat what she called the "crackdown on civil society" in countries
including Venezuela. ¶ She was speaking at a US Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday.¶ The
remarks prompted an angry response from Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. ¶ "The
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela hereby ends the process... of finally normalising our
diplomatic relations," said Venezuela's foreign ministry in a statement.¶ It objected to Ms Power's
"interventionist agenda", noting that her "disrespectful opinions" were later endorsed by the
state department, "contradicting in tone and in content" earlier statements by Secretary of State John Kerry.¶ Poor relations¶ ¶
Relations between the US and Venezuela have been strained in recent years. They last had
ambassadors in each other's capitals in 2010.¶ Washington angered Caracas by backing the
Venezuelan opposition's demand for a full recount of the presidential election in April to replace Hugo
Chavez, who died in March.¶ Mr Chavez's anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, won the vote by less than two percentage points. ¶ In
June, the two countries had tentatively agreed to work towards improving their strained
relations, after Venezuela freed and deported a US filmmaker who had been held on conspiracy charges.¶ During a regional
summit in Guatemala, Mr Kerry said he had agreed with Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on an "ongoing, continuing dialogue" in order
to "establish a more constructive and positive relationship".¶ He said the US wanted to "begin to change the dialogue between our
countries and hopefully quickly move the appointments of ambassadors between our nations".¶ Mr Jaua said at the time that for
Venezuela it was important to build a relationship based on the principles of mutual respect and no interference in internal affairs.
AT: Chavez Death
Chavez death won’t boost relations – anti-US posture will remain
Sullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS,
4-9-’13 (Mark, “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations”
Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAG
While some observers contend that Chávez’s passing and the beginning of a new political era in Venezuela could
ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will
happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming electoral campaign could
delay any forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chávez’s death on March 5,
Vice President Maduro announced that two U.S. military attachés were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to
provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chávez’s sickness on the United States. State Department
officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachés, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two
Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington).15
Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chávez government as a way to shore up support
during elections, and it appears that this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current
presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would
no longer be talking about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State
Jacobson because of comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said
that “Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections.” A senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre
accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will be able to be
improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State
Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly
rejected the “allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.”17 Looking ahead, some observers contend
that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be
utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.
Oil
Venezuela will continue to oppose US engagement despite the oil
relationship – oil is the exception, not the rule
Helios Global, 13 – (Helios Global, an asset tracking company with global presence, “Change in Venezuela Yields
Political and Economic Uncertainty,” 29 April 2013, http://www.heliosglobalinc.com/world-trends-watch/?p=152)//HO
Nicholas Maduro’s narrow electoral triumph over opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski in Venezuela’s
April 14 elections to serve out the remainder of the late president Hugo Chavez’s current presidential term signifies
a turning
point in Venezuelan politics. Maduro’s victory has also reverberated beyond Venezuela’s
borders. Due to its role as a major source of oil, the course of political events in Venezuela also
has important implications for the world economy. The death of Hugo Chavez has also raised concerns about the
prospects of social, political, and economic stability in Venezuela. The victory of Chavez’s heir apparent – Chavez and his supporters
went to great lengths to ensure the survival of the Bolivarian Revolution launched by Chavez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(known by its Spanish acronym PSUV) – in a politically charged and polarized climate has already resulted in unrest and violence
between Maduro’s supporters and his opponents. Venezuela’s increasingly dire economic predicament has further exacerbated
tensions across the country.¶ Despite a contentious bilateral relationship, Venezuela remains the fourth-
largest supplier of imported oil to the United States. Given the peculiarities of its oil, namely, the
category of relatively low quality heavy crude oil that represents the bulk of its oil capacity, Venezuela relies heavily on U.S. refineries
located in the Gulf of Mexico that were designed to refine oil from Venezuela (and Mexico). Roughly forty-percent of Venezuela’s oil
exports are delivered to the United States. Consequently, the United States is Venezuela’s top trade partner.
This is the case even as U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil have steadily declined in recent years. In
1997, the United States imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from Venezuela. In contrast, only about 1 million bpd
of Venezuelan oil makes its way to the United States today. Venezuela also boasts major natural gas reserves, possibly the secondlargest natural gas reserves in the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, Venezuela’s oil production capacity continues to
deteriorate due to mismanagement, corruption, and antiquated infrastructure.¶ With its emphasis on South-South
cooperation, Latin American integration, and opposition to what it refers to as U.S. imperialism,
Venezuela’s foreign policy has largely reflected its Bolivarian Revolutionary principles. Even as it
has continued to serve as a major source of crude oil to the United States, Venezuela has also
devoted significant diplomatic and economic resources toward checking U.S. influence in the
Americas. Initiatives such as its Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (known by its Spanish acronym ALBA) have served to
expand Venezuela’s influence across the region. This support has come in the form of diplomatic and, especially, economic
assistance to governments led by leftist political parties and movements that are often enmeshed in their own disputes with the
United States, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Venezuela has also supported a number of militant
groups in the region, most notably, the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym
FARC) in neighboring Colombia. Venezuela has also engaged closely with other left-leaning governments
across the region, including Brazil, a rising regional and geopolitical power in its own right that
is slowly emerging as a challenger to the United States.
Maduro will stay in power despite Venezuela’s oil wealth
O’Brien-Bours, 13 – (Robinson, BA in History and Political Science from Ashland University, “Venezuela Election
Results 2013: Maduro Pulls Razor-Thin Victory Over Capriles,” April 2013, https://www.policymic.com/articles/35011/venezuelaelection-results-2013-maduro-pulls-razor-thin-victory-over-capriles)//HO
If Maduro is able to hold onto power in the OPEC nation, his rule will see a continued
deterioration in U.S.-Venezuelan relations. The former bus driver has publicly accused the
United States of assassinating Hugo Chavez, and is widely expected to continue his
predecessor's bellicose rhetoric towards the United States. Maduro will also maintain Chavez's socialist
revolution, to the further detriment of Venezuela's economy, safety, and liberty. The six years that he will sit in the
presidential palace will likely see Venezuela continue to squander its natural resources like oil.¶
The razor-thin vote margin places Maduro on considerably weaker footing than originally
anticipated. He was not handed an electoral mandate, and the Venezuelan people made it clear that they are not as willing to
place their trust in Nicolas Maduro as they were in Hugo Chavez. However, his victory does ensure that Chavez's
legacy will remain intact and that the ghost of Chavez will remain in power for the next six years.
But Maduro is no Chavez; he lacks the skill and charisma of his predecessor. He will help Chavez's legacy, yes, but he will help by
reinforcing it as a legacy of economic disaster and eroding civil rights. Over the next six years, this narrow majority will reap what it
has sown.
Inner-Circle
Maduro’s regime is stable, but at risk – he has to maintain cohesion
among the Chavistas to stay in power
AFP, 7/27 – (Agence France-Presse, “Maduro tested as Venezuela's economy worsens,” 27 July 2013,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130727/maduro-tested-venezuelas-economy-worsens)//HO
A hundred days after taking office, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has withstood opposition
challenges to
his election but is now being put to the test by a deepening economic crisis. ¶ "Maduro has won
the battle of legitimacy with the opposition," said political analyst John Magdaleno, who said the president's
political standing is secure both inside and outside the country.¶ The hand-picked successor to the
charismatic Hugo Chavez, Maduro boasted of his government's staying power this week at a celebration marking the birthday of
Simon Bolivar, the 19th century South American independence hero Chavistas revere.¶ "It's not 100 days. It's 100 years that the
revolution will be here: 100 years of the Bolivarian, Chavista, socialist revolution," Maduro declared.¶ The street violence,
marches and counter-marches, and bitter exchanges of insults that followed Maduro's slender
victory in the polls now appear to be behind him.¶ Though the election results are still disputed by
opposition rival Henrique Capriles, tensions have eased in Venezuela.¶ "The intensity of the confrontation,
the frequency of the verbal disputes, have gone down," said Magdaleno.¶ But the president still must show he
can keep the Chavista ranks united and assert control over the decision-making process, he
cautioned.¶ Since coming to office, Maduro has met with representatives of the business sector, owners of private media companies,
and labor and religious leaders.¶ He has also visited various Latin American countries, and assumed the rotating leadership of
Mercosur, a South American trading bloc that Venezuela recently joined as a full member.¶ "Maduro has been gradually
steadying himself, using stagecraft and propaganda, but he still must take concrete steps," said
Maxim Ross, an economist at the Universidad Monte Avila.¶ Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said that, strikingly, Maduro has dared to
involve himself in two issues that Chavez had always managed to avoid: corruption and crime.¶ "Chavez could avoid the issue
because he did not pay a political price for the insecurity: he wasn't seen as responsible for it, and he just didn't talk about the noose
in the hanged man's house," Leon wrote in the local press.¶ Over the past weeks, Capriles, the young opposition leader who
galvanized the opposition in two election campaigns after years of losses to Chavez, has pursued a "crusade for the truth" both inside
and outside the country, with mixed results.¶ He was received by the presidents of Colombia and Chile, to the fury of the Maduro
government, but not by those of Mexico and Peru.¶ As he awaits a Supreme Court decision on his three month old challenge to the
election results, the Miranda state governor faces an uphill battle in keeping his base motivated.¶ But he did succeed in creating
doubt about the honesty of Venezuela's election authorities.¶ "Although the electoral challenge no longer has the
same relevance, the doubt did take hold. About half the country did not think the results were
correct," Magdaleno said.¶ "He will continue making charges, probably going to international fora, but I don't think this will have
enough of an impact to turn the legitimacy of the Maduro government, which is calculating the exact timing to produce the sentence
of the Supreme Court so as to undo the opposition electorate," he said.¶ The risks of economic decline¶ What could put
Maduro at risk is the deepening impact on Venezuelans of a worsening economy, which experts
say is rooted in stringent exchange controls in place since 2003 in an oil-exporting country that relies heavily on
imports.¶ The burdensome red tape and restrictions on businesses seeking dollars delay imports,
generate shortages of stapes and raw materials, and at the same time exert powerful inflationary
pressures.¶ The first quarter closed with record inflation of 25 percent, which exceeded pay increases, and shortages of basic
goods are the worst they have been in recent years.¶ "There is erosion of salaries and jobs, there will be
inflation, the problem of food shortages will continue. The coming months will be ones of
economic deterioration that could lead to social conflict," said Ross.¶ The government has responded by
opening somewhat the spigot through auctions of dollars, but experts say it has not been enough.¶ Venezuela also has taken actions
to crack down on price gouging and has arrested some public officials for corruption, but at the same time has continued to run up
deficits and engage in expropriations.¶ A poll by Datanalisis published this week found 58 percent of Venezuelans view the economic
situation negatively, and more than 52 percent of Chavistas believe the government should work with the private sector to reactivate
the economy.
Links
Generic
Maduro has cut off ties with the US – the plan would force him to
backpedal
Bercovitch, 7-21-’13 (Sascha, “With “Zero Tolerance to Gringo Aggression,” Maduro Cuts
Off Venezuela-U.S. Talks” Venezuela Analysis, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9872)//JAG
The conversations that were started a month and a half ago between Venezuela and the United States
have definitively ended, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced yesterday at an event of the Strategic
Regions of Integral Defense (REDI) in Cojedes state. “My policy is zero tolerance to gringo aggression against
Venezuela. I'm not going to accept any aggression, whether it be verbal, political, or diplomatic. Enough is enough. Stay
over there with your empire, don't involve yourselves anymore in Venezuela,” he said. The
announcement comes after controversial statements from Samantha Powers, President Barack Obama’s
nominee for U.S. envoy to the United Nations, who testified to the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign
Relations on Wednesday that she would fight against what she called a “crackdown on civil society
being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.” In a statement written on Friday that marks
the last communication between the two countries, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua wrote, “The
preoccupation expressed by the U.S. government regarding the supposed repression of civil
society in Venezuela is unacceptable and unfounded. To the contrary, Venezuela has amply
demonstrated that it possesses a robust system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the
unrestricted practice and the respect of fundamental human rights, as the UN has recognized on multiple
occasions.” Jaua spoke with US Secretary of State John Kerry in a meeting in Guatemala last month that Kerry described as the
“beginning of a good, respectful relationship.” However, relations cooled after Bolivian President Evo Morales’ presidential
plane was prevented from entering the airspace of four European countries following false information that U.S. whistleblower
Edward Snowden was on board, and Maduro’s subsequent offer of political asylum to Snowden. “I told Jaua to
convey to Kerry [in June] that we
are ready to have relations within the framework of equality and
respect,” Maduro said yesterday. “If they respect us, we respect them. But the time has run out for them to meddle
in the internal affairs of our countries and publically attack us. Their time has run out, in general
in Latin America, and in particular with us.” Neither country has had an ambassador in the other nation since 2010,
when late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez refused the entrance of newly-appointed US Ambassador to Venezuela Larry Palmer
for “blatantly disrespectful” remarks, and Venezuelan Ambassador to the US Bernardo Alvarez was expelled from the country several
days later.
Venezuela has a negative attitude toward US relations despite Chavez’
death
Sullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS,
4-9-’13 (Mark, “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations”
Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAG
While some observers contend that Chávez’s passing and the beginning of a new political era in Venezuela could ultimately lessen
tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will happen
quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any
forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chávez’s death on March 5, Vice President Maduro
announced that two U.S. military attachés were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to
blame Chávez’s sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachés, and ultimately responded on March 11
Hostility toward
the United States was often used by the Chávez government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that
this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential
campaign. On March 20, 2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking
about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments
that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that “Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections.” A
senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether
by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington).15
bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government .16 Another strange
accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly
rejected the “allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.”17 Looking ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means
for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating
economy.
Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards
the US
Shinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-’13 (Paul,
“Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?”
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-invenezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAG
He also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in
Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and
sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These relationships are controlled by a group of military elites
within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives
him enough support to keep the country – and its shadow commerce – stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro]
has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and
corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to
turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs
them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S. officials
might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained
ties between the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in
his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to
prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be
a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."
Pro-US policies drain Maduro’s military and elite support.
Shinkman, 13 --- national security reporter at U.S. News and World Report (4/24/2013,
Paul D., “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond? New
Venezuelan president at a crossroads for major threat to U.S.,”
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-invenezuela-how-will-maduro-respond, SJ)
"[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic
steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would
guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the
Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy
a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. [CHART: What the DEA Refuses to Admit About Drugs] U.S.
officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two
countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and
will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to
these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I
don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."
Plan threatens Maduro’s legitimacy and distracts from structural
problems.
Shifter, 13 --- president of the Inter-American Dialogue (5/3/2013, Michael, “What Does the
Future Hold for U.S.-Venezuela Relations?”
http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3297, SJ)
A: Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue: "The prospects for improved relations between the United States and
Venezuela under the Maduro administration now appear rather dim. Maduro's rhetoric directed at Washington has
been notably tough and aggressive, as he seeks to shore up support among the Chavista base.
Arresting a U.S. citizen and accusing him of stirring up trouble in Venezuela is a vintage Chávez tactic, aimed
at diverting attention from the country's myriad, fundamental problems. Lacking Chávez's
political skills and common touch, Maduro is in a particularly shaky position, compounded by
questions of legitimacy following the April 14 elections. To date, personnel picks and policy signals coming out of the
administration have been confusing and mixed. Some in Maduro's team are hardliners, while others, such as
Calixto Ortega--the recently appointed representative in Washington--are more open and moderate. Ortega, for example,
was very active in the so-called Boston Group, an effort that sought to facilitate dialogue between Chavista and opposition
lawmakers. As long as Maduro's political standing remains precarious, he will be severely
constrained in his ability to pursue closer ties with the United States. There is no appetite or interest in
Washington to adopt punitive measures and apply sanctions against Venezuela. In light of Maduro's confrontational
rhetoric and actions--and disturbing incidents of violence--no one is calling for a rapprochement. Still,
assuming that things begin to settle down, and given that other governments have already recognized Maduro, it would be surprising
if Washington didn't eventually come around and deal with the practical reality."
Plan drains Maduro’s PC and triggers riots.
Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, “Foreign
Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela,” http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/SouthAmerica/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, SJ)
The narrow
vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique Capriles has
refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral commission is standing firm on
Maduro’s victory.¶ For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no
regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed
forward under Maduro.¶ What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA
to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or
allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest.¶ If Maduro feels compelled to reduce
fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuel—which cannot be sustained—is one of the most crucial
social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents per gallon.¶ Maduro has inherited a “sinking ship”
and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuela’s
energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com.¶ “The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is
struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that
fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration and new technology would be
priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social
programs,” according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon.¶ A
top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to
negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize.
Close victory means Maduro’s PC is vulnerable.
Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl,
“Venezuela Post-Election: Can Maduro Govern?” http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, SJ)
In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continued decline of Venezuela’s economy. The results
also mean that political divisions within Maduro's coalition will worsen. Maduro’s lack of political
experience and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might hold together the
numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro
responds to voters’ frustrations, from high inflation to rising violent crime rates, will come
under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quick improvements in these arenas, he may find himself
facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and widely
considered Maduro’s main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a period of selfcriticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles.¶
Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chávez enjoyed,
Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive. Add to this a
reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduro’s ability to run the state appear poor at
best.¶ Maduro's narrow victory also dashes any expectations that he might turn pragmatic when
dealing with such issues as the Venezuelan economy. Maduro’s first goal will likely be to show himself
in charge and to satisfy Chavistas. This will likely lead to a doubling-down of Chávez’s policies
and to profligate spending on social programs within Venezuela.
Maduro won’t cooperate with US – anti-Americanism key to
credibility as he assumes power
Labott 13 (Elise, “U.S.-Venezuela relations likely to remain tense after Chavez”, March 6,
CNN, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/06/u-s-venezuela-relations-likely-to-remaintense-after-chavez/)//DLG
But in the words of one senior official, the outreach to Caracas has been a "rocky road." Talks have been short on
substance and never left U.S. officials with the feeling Venezuela was interested in mending fences.¶ Maduro's first news
conference, a good portion of which was devoted to railing against the United States, was not very encouraging. As he
prepares to stand in upcoming elections to replace Chavez, Maduro's anti-American rhetoric is dismissed in the
United States as political jockeying to shore up his political base.¶ This tried-and-true method of
using America as straw man worked for Chavez, which is why U.S. officials acknowledge that the
campaign season not be the best time to break new ground or expect tangible progress. Officials say
they will continue to speak out in favor of a more productive relationship between the two countries, but the ball, officials say, is
firmly in Venezuela's court.¶ "The opportunities are not there yet for the U.S. to engage" says Carl Meacham of the Center for
Strategic and International Studies. "For the next month or so, Maduro has to show he is even more Chavez
than Chavez was. That means he
is going to be more anti-American, more anti-capitalist, more antisystemic. As far as a rapprochement, I don't see it coming anytime soon."¶ How Venezuela conducts those
elections will be a major test. For years Washington had accused Chavez and his supporters of abusing the electoral system by
intimidating opposition and controlling the media during his 14-year rule. Now, the United States has made clear it expects a free
and fair election in accordance with Venezuela's Constitution and charters.¶ While Venezuela's relationship with the United States
revolved around Chavez, it is unlikely his death will dramatically affect ties in the near term. If, as expected,
Maduro wins the presidency, the
new boss will likely be the same as the old one.¶ "Chavez's supporters
and their Chavismo ideological movement were dealt a blow with the death of their charismatic leader, but his ministers have
been preparing for this transition, and the challenge to all sides will be measured in weeks and
months, not days" said Dan Restrepo, who served as an adviser to Obama at the National Security Council during his first term.¶
With crime at an all-time high, continued drug-trafficking and a faltering oil sector, Meacham says the new Venezuelan
government will be looking inward for the foreseeable future.¶ "The U.S. doesn't want to be in a situation
where it is viewed at all as getting involved in domestic affairs of Venezuela," he says. "If Maduro wins, he will be trying to
keep the focus on domestic issues, and that could put the resolve of Chavismo to the test. And that
could mean the hardest days between the U.S. and Venezuela is not behind us, but
ahead of us ."
Venezuela rejects talks with the US hardening anti-US sentiment
Democratic Underground, 7/20/13, (From the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Cancillería Vzla, “Venezuela has terminated talks with the United States”, 7/20/2013,
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023300822)//LOH
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically rejects the statements issued to the Foreign
Relations Committee of the U.S. Senate, by Samantha Power, candidate for Ambassador of that
country to the Organization of the United Nations, where she claimed it would be part of her
work to "fight the repression of civil society" conducted by several countries, among them
Venezuela. Her disrespectful opinions were endorsed and supported by the State Department
today, contradicting the tone and content of the statements made by the Secretary of State John
Kerry, in his June meetings with the Chancellor of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Elias
Jaua, in the city of Antigua, Guatemala. The concerns expressed by the U.S. government about
the alleged repression in Venezuela into civil society are unacceptable and unfounded ; on
the contrary, the Bolivarian Government of Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses
a strong system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the practice of and unconditional
respect for fundamental human rights, as has been recognized by the United Nations on many
occasions and situations (scenarios). However, the world constantly expresses concern about the
repressive practices exercised by the United States, including the violation of human rights in
the illegal internment camp of Guantanamo, the massacres of civilians by drones and the
lamentable persecution unleashed against Edward Snowden, a victim of fierce repression, for
exercising his right to dissent and denouncing practices of the Government of the United States
which violate, among other things, the right to privacy of all people in the world, enshrined in
Article 12 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, in addition to the blatant intent to
violate the rules governing the right to asylum, widely recognized by civilized nations. The
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela reiterates that, as has been expressed by the President of the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in order to build a good relationship with the
U.S. government, requires practicing mutual respect and the full and total recognition of the
principles of sovereignty and self-determination. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will
never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs . Due to the backing of the
State Department for interventionist agenda raised by the candidate Ambassador, Samatha
Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela terminates the processes initiated during the
Guatemala talks, which were designed to stabilize our diplomatic relations.
Maduro’s anti-US policy is key to the dominance of the inner Chavista
circle
Walser, 13 – (Ray, Ph.D., MA, BA in International Relations from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Senior
Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, former Foreign Service officer with the U.S. Department of State, “Beware of Venezuela's
Paranoid Anti-Americanism,” RealClearPolitics, 19 March 2013,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/03/19/beware_of_venezuelas_paranoid_anti-americanism_117526.html)//HO
Two weeks after the death of President Hugo Chavez from cancer, Venezuela’s interim chief and Chavista presidential candidate
Nicolas Maduro is increasingly resorting to wild, paranoid, anti-American outbursts in an effort to
convince Venezuelans he has the machismo needed to fill El Commandante’s boots.¶ Following
initial claims that the U.S. or others had killed Chavez, Maduro followed up on March 13 by saying
he intends to form a scientific commission to review the facts of the 58-year-old leader’s death.
“We have the intuition that our commander Chavez was poisoned by dark forces that wanted him out of the way,” Maduro told an
audience on March 12. Such a commission, however, will have to collect its evidence from a corpse that was inadequately preserved
and may be too decomposed for the embalming Maduro had initially promised.¶ The war of words between Maduro
and opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles also continues to heat up. Maduro and company
want to undercut Capriles by making Venezuelans believe that Capriles enjoys official backing
from the U.S. Such attacks will only worsen in advance of the April 14 presidential elections.¶ On March 17, Maduro went
further, saying that the U.S. is now preparing a desperate plot to kill Capriles. “I call on President
Obama—Roger Noriega, Otto Reich [both conservative, former State Department officials], officials at the Pentagon and
at the CIA are behind a plan to assassinate the right-wing presidential candidate to create
chaos.Ӧ Attacks on the U.S. are integral to the strategy of Maduro and the inner
Chavista circle. Their current course aims to inflame the nationalistic militancy of Chavez’s
followers. It is a calculated effort to distract Venezuelan voters from grave violations of the
constitutional order and stark domestic challenges—inflation, fiscal deficits, devaluations,
crime, and increasing food shortages—that have worsened since Maduro took de facto control of
the government in early December 2012.¶ Governability and stability in Venezuela before and after the
elections could become a major challenge. The Miami Herald’s veteran Venezuela watcher Andres Oppenheimer
suggests that the April 14 elections will be neither fair nor genuinely free.¶ Maduro’s wild accusations also lower
expectations for swift improvement in relations with the U.S. The limited leverage that the U.S.
still poses over Venezuela resides in its commercial, financial, and energy links and in the frayed
democratic consensus in the inter-American community. Like it or not, the Obama Administration finds itself
drawn into Venezuela’s growing crisis of governability caused by the increasingly irresponsible behavior of Chavez knock-offs like
Maduro.
Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards
the US
Shinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-’13 (Paul,
“Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?”
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-invenezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAG
He also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in Tehran in 2010, "We
are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These
relationships are controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He
wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him enough
support to keep the country – and its shadow commerce – stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro] has
been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never
took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for
money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he
needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S.
officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between
the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely
adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these
Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah
says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."
Counternarcotics
Venezuela doesn’t want cooperation on narcotics
Toothaker, Christopher ‘08
Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (“Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US”, USA
Today, 8/31)
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htm
Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it
has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory.¶ ¶
In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as
"useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at
home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation.¶ ¶ "The anti-drug
fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation
programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement.¶ ¶ President Hugo Chavez suspended
cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005, accusing its agents of
espionage.¶ ¶ Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White
House drug czar John Walters said.¶ ¶ U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large
loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way
station for shipments to Europe, Walters said.¶ ¶ He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since
2004, reaching an estimated 282 tons (256 metric tons) last year.¶ ¶ On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's
comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has
increased.¶ ¶ Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is
risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful.¶ ¶ Duddy told reporters on
Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.
Venezuela will prefer a unilateral approach to counternarcotics now
Toothaker, Christopher ‘08
Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (“Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US”, USA
Today, 8/31,
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htm)
CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on
drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian
cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed
U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should
focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations'
supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress
during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with
the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation
with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has
refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said .
U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of
Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters
said. He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004, reaching an estimated 282 tons (256
metric tons) last year. On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid"
for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased.
Chavez also took issue with recent
statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would
soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful. Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between
Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.
Venezuela won’t cooperate on drugs with the U.S. now
DOS 13 (“2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report”, March 5, Bureau Of
International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLG
C. National Goals, Bilateral Cooperation, and U.S. Policy Initiatives¶ The Venezuelan government has maintained
only limited, case-by-case counternarcotics cooperation with the United States since the
cessation of formal cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2005. Since
2005, the United States has proposed that the Venezuelan government sign an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral
counternarcotics MOU that would allow for expanded cooperation. Venezuelan officials regularly made clear that
Venezuela would neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate with the United States on
counternarcotics. The Venezuelan government rarely shares information with the United States on
money laundering or drug trafficking. Since 2009, when former Interior and Justice Minister El Aissami
prohibited police officers from receiving training abroad without the Ministry's prior approval,
Venezuelan law enforcement authorities have not participated in U.S.-sponsored
counternarcotics training programs.¶ Bilateral cooperation with the United States in 2012 included of the deportation
of Puerto Rican Oscar “Cali” Martínez Hernández to the United States. In 2012, Venezuela detained four Colombian
citizens who are wanted by the United States and deported all but one of them to Colombia in
November.
Venezuela has refused US efforts to cooperate over drugs
DOS 10 (“International Narcotics Control Strategy Report”, March, Bureau for International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLG
Venezuela has failed demonstrably to make sufficient efforts to meet its obligations under
international ¶ counternarcotics measures set forth in Section 489(a) (1) of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961, as ¶ amended. ¶ This Determination takes into account actions taken by the Government of
Venezuela during the past 12 ¶ months. Venezuela has ignored, or refused, the majority of United States
Government offers to work ¶ towards greater cooperation on counternarcotics. An official letter from
the U.S. Ambassador on July 15, ¶ 2008, and a follow-up diplomatic note of March 11, 2009, requesting
facilitation of a meeting to discuss ¶ counternarcotics were not answered. On May 13, 2009, Venezuela’s
National Anti-Drug Office (ONA) ¶ Director declined to meet with the U.S. Charge d’Affaires, informing the U.S.
Embassy that the meeting ¶ would require authorization from the Venezuelan President or the Foreign Minister. ¶ Venezuela’s
importance as a transshipment point for drugs bound for the United States and Europe ¶ continues to
increase. Corruption within the Venezuelan Government and a weak and politicized judicial ¶ system
contribute to the ease with which illicit drugs transit Venezuela. Trafficking through Venezuela ¶ increased from
an estimated 50 metric tons of cocaine in 2004 to an estimated 300 metric tons in 2008. ¶ The ONA periodically reports seizures of
illicit drugs, but the Venezuelan Government does not share the ¶ necessary data or evidence needed to verify seizures or the
destruction of illicit drugs. The U.S. Coast ¶ Guard generally has received permission from the Government of Venezuela to board
suspect Venezuelan ¶ flagged vessels operating in the Caribbean. Venezuelan authorities, however, require the return
of ¶ confiscated vessels, people, and any contraband located during these operations. Upon return to ¶ Venezuela,
crew members are often released.
Empirics prove – Venezuela rejected US drug assistance 5 years ago
and will do so again now
AP ’08 (Associated Press, “Venezuela rejects U.S. bid for anti-drugs pact”,
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26487635/ns/world_news-venezuela/t/venezuela-rejects-us-bidanti-drugs-pact/#.UfFyfdI3vLM, 8/31/08)//MG
Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it
has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing
through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to
renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune, " saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing
demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. " The anti-drug fight
in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the
government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a
statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency in August
2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials
combat drug trafficking , White House drug czar John Walters said.
Venezuela empirically doesn’t cooperate on drugs
GAO, ‘9 (Government Accountability Office, July, “DRUG CONTROL U.S. Counternarcotics
Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined” Report to the Ranking Member, Committee on
Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, http://www.gao.gov/assets/300/292722.pdf) //JAG
In mid-July, the U.S. Special Coordinator for Venezuela37 traveled to Venezuela to meet with Venezuelan officials in an attempt to
re-start dialogue. The day prior to his trip, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere
Affairs stated in congressional testimony that Venezuela had “for the first time in many years, expressed
a willingness to explore improved relations with the United States…[and] we have told Venezuela that we
would like to explore this diplomatic opening.” When the Special Coordinator arrived in Caracas, however, he
was told that Venezuelan officials had cancelled all of his appointments. In the end, he was only able to
meet with one Venezuelan legislator.
Oil
Plan would be upopular—Maduro chose to work with Russia over the
US on oil
Global Post, 7/2, (Staff, “Maduro reaffirms Venezuela's alliance with Russia”, 7/2/2013,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/agencia-efe/130702/maduro-reaffirms-venezuelasalliance-russia)//LOH
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro showed here Tuesday that he plans to pick up where late
predecessor Hugo Chavez left off in relations with Russia. "Hugo Chavez generated a great
respect and love for Russia. We have inherited that love," Maduro said during a meeting at the
Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "We have come to confirm our desire to
reinforce and expand the strategic alliance with Russia," the Venezuelan leader said. "During the
last decade we have forged a map of cooperation in various areas. We move forward on the
energy front, that is, oil and gas, and in provision of equipment for the petroleum
sector," Maduro said. The new president's first visit to Moscow included the signing of an
accord between Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA and Russian counterpart Rosneft to carry
out joint projects in the Andean nation. Russian utility Inter RAO EES also reached an accord
with PDVSA to build a power plant in Venezuela. Putin said he and Maduro reaffirmed their
"common position to pursue the course of strategic cooperation in all ambits." The Russian also
praised Maduro for "firmly taking the baton" from Chavez, who died in March after a long battle
with cancer, and praised the late Venezuelan head of state as "a great and sincere friend of
Russia, a strong and valiant man." Maduro took time during his visit to attend a ceremony in
northwest Moscow to mark the re-naming of a street in Chavez's honor. Chavez, who traveled to
Russia on nine occasions, sought to institutionalize bilateral economic cooperation and bought
billions of dollars worth of arms and military equipment from Moscow. Venezuela turned to
Russia after the United States cut off sales of military materiel to Caracas, including spare parts
for the F-16s combat planes Washington sold the Andean nation in the 1980s.
Plan drains Maduro’s PC and triggers riots.
Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, “Foreign
Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela,” http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/SouthAmerica/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, SJ)
The narrow
vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique Capriles has
refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral commission is standing firm on
Maduro’s victory.¶ For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no
regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed
forward under Maduro.¶ What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA
to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or
allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest.¶ If Maduro feels compelled to reduce
fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuel—which cannot be sustained—is one of the most crucial
social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents per gallon.¶ Maduro has inherited a “sinking ship”
and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuela’s
energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com.¶ “The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is
struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that
fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration and new technology would be
priorities but Maduro
will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social
programs,” according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon.¶ A
top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to
negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize.
Link Magnifier
Close victory means Maduro’s PC is vulnerable.
Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl,
“Venezuela Post-Election: Can Maduro Govern?” http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, SJ)
In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continued decline of Venezuela’s economy. The results
also mean that political divisions within Maduro's coalition will worsen. Maduro’s lack of political
experience and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might hold together the
numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro
responds to voters’ frustrations, from high inflation to rising violent crime rates, will come
under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quick improvements in these arenas, he may find himself
facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and widely
considered Maduro’s main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a period of selfcriticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles.¶
Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chávez enjoyed,
Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive. Add to this a
reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduro’s ability to run the state appear poor at
best.¶ Maduro's narrow victory also dashes any expectations that he might turn pragmatic when
dealing with such issues as the Venezuelan economy. Maduro’s first goal will likely be to show himself
in charge and to satisfy Chavistas. This will likely lead to a doubling-down of Chávez’s policies
and to profligate spending on social programs within Venezuela.
Impacts
Regional Influence Scenario
Anti-Americanism K2 ALBA
ALBA founded on Anit-Americanism Maduro needs to keep this
alliance to be perceived as a credible regional leader
IISS, 6/1, (Antônio Sampaio, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy June–July 2013, “South
America After Chávez”, Pages: 63-70, Volume: 55, Edition number: 3, Date: 01 June 2013,
http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2013-94b0/survival--global-politicsand-strategy-june-july-2013-532b/55-3-06-sampaio-81b1)//LOH
From fists in the air to military salutes, there was plenty of revolutionary posturing from leftwing leaders – and even Hollywood actor Sean Penn – at the 8 March 2013 funeral of
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. While many of the 32 heads of state in attendance came
from Latin American countries that receive cheap oil from Venezuela, others, such as Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, saw in
Chávez a leader of a global anti-American movement . After kissing the coffin, Ahmadinejad
raised his fist in solidarity. The charismatic leader will be sorely missed by this group, especially
because he leaves behind a state with a diminishing ability to sustain the largesse that
characterised Venezuelan foreign policy during his 14-year rule. Chávez’s death heralds the end
of an era for his allies. Despite enormous economic and security challenges at home, Chávez
pursued a defiant foreign policy, forging alliances that deeply irritated the United States and
propounding regional integration initiatives that rivalled those of Brazil, South America’s
aspiring leader. Chávez spearheaded the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America
(ALBA), a group named for the Venezuelan revolutionary leader Simon Bolívar that comprises
eight countries ruled by left-wing governments with varying degrees of anti-Americanism. He
also led the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), an organisation that
includes almost all countries in the Americas, with the notable exception of the United States
and Canada. Chávez created these organisations to increase his influence abroad and counter
that of Brasilia, which promotes the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) as the main
network of regional political cooperation. Both his death and Venezuela’s economic and security
crisis pave the way for Brazil to advance its own strategy in South America. Venezuela’s
declining economy and regional influence contrasts with its progress in the 2000s, which
created ideal conditions for Chávez’s foreign policy. International crude prices rose by 400%
between 1999, the year of his inauguration, and 2008. During the same period, the aggressively
interventionist foreign policy of the United States under President George W. Bush gave
Chávez’s anti-American rhetoric a wider appeal, not only in Venezuela’s deeply unequal society
but also some of the poorest countries in the region. Increased oil revenues and intense antiAmericanism allowed Chávez to lead a restricted but loyal group of countries.
Ahmadinejad’s emotional tribute to Chávez in Caracas reflects the ambitious and expensive
foreign policy Venezuela pursued. Constrained by sanctions and isolated by Western powers,
Iran not only received 20,000 barrels of petroleum per day from Venezuela between November
2009 and September 2010, but also benefitted from Caracas’ diplomatic support and military
cooperation.
ALBA is strong now and also based on anti-neoliberal ideology
Juventud Rebelde, 8/1, (Staff, “Presidential Summit Strengthens Regional Alliance”,
8/01/2013,http://www.juventudrebelde.co.cu/cuba/2013-08-01/presidential-summitstrengthens-regional-alliance/)//LOH
The principles of integration and complementariness of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples
of Our America (ALBA) have been strengthened, said the vice-president of the Cuban Councils
of State and Minister José Ramón Machado Ventura. The presidential meeting in the 12th ALBA
Summit had a remarkably positive outcome, said Machado. In an exclusive with Prensa Latina
News Agency, Machado said that the inclusion of Saint Lucia as ALBA’s new member shows the
strength, authority and prestige achieved by ALBA. This new addition increases the impact of
the programs implemented through this organization, he said. ALBA aims at a greater
integration of the countries of the continent, strengthening economic ties through cooperation
and continuing the development of social and educational programs, he said. He highlighted the
benefits of the establishment of an economic area that links ALBA, PETROCARIBE and the
Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), which represents the fulfilment of one of this 12th
summit's goals, addressed to strengthen the regional economic relations . Likewise, he
stressed that the statements and agreements adopted at the ALBA Summit and at the Social
Movements Summits, which took place at the same time, have several points of agreements
which shows that both summits are in line with each other’s goals and purposes. Machado
Ventura pointed out that the political declaration agreed by heads of state and government
against the international espionage carried out by Unites States, and the denunciation, once
more, of the assault against Bolivian president Evo Morales performed by several European
countries with the intention of forbidding him to fly over their air space. At the closing ceremony
of the 12nd Summit - which was attended by the Cuban vice president along with
representatives of Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Dominica, Ecuador, Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Lucia, ALBA country members -, the presidents
signed a document called the Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, which represents a clear
denunciation of capitalism's intentions of reviving, through new mechanisms, the Free Trade
Area of the Americas (ALCA), which has been defeated since 2005.
ALBA—Venezuela Key
ALBA key to regional power, if split the countries lose bargaining
power and it destroys credibility
EL UNIVERSAL, 7/31, (Staff, “Maduro claims political and social aspects are bound
together”, 7/31/2013, http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/130731/maduro-claims-politicaland-social-aspects-are-bound-together)
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro referred to the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our
America (ALBA) as "the materialization of hope" in view of the organization's both efforts to
improve education quality and progress towards eradication of hunger and poverty in the
continent. Maduro's words were uttered at the 12th ALBA Presidential Summit held in
Guayaquil, Ecuador -an event also attended by the leaders of Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador.
In addition to saying that ALBA was an illiteracy free territory, Maduro noted that the alliance is
working towards the construction of a new economic model aimed at showing how the
neoliberal architecture based on free trade is impoverishing nations and restricting progress.
"We have also demonstrated that the economic and social aspects are brothers; they cannot
remain apart as neoliberalism claimed. The economy was hand over to transnational companies
and the peoples were given just crumbs." Earlier, the summit's host, Rafael Correa, called for
union and said, " If split, we will continue to be considered as the backyard. If split,
transnational capitals will impose conditions on us. Together, it will be us laying
down the conditions on that capital for the benefit of our peoples, " DPA reported.
ALBA—Regional Integration Impact
Venezuela is crucial to ALBA and their expansion of regional
integration
Morning Star, 7/31, (Staff, “Presidents push for greater regional ties at Alba summit”,
7/31/2013, http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/136023)//LOH
Cuban Vice-President Jose Ramon Machado Ventura praised Ecuadorian leader Rafael Correa
and Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro today for their fight against US imperialism. Mr Machado said
greater Latin American integration was aiding development across the region during the closing
session of the 12th summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alba) in
Ecuador. But he stressed that social movements should lead the charge. About 10,000 people
marched through Ecuador's biggest city Guayaquil on Tuesday in support of greater integration.
And about 200 representatives of the groups involved joined the summit today to propose
greater economic , political and cultural ties across the region . Mr Maduro said Alba
heads of state had backed the social movements' proposals. The summit also discussed the role
of women, food sovereignty and changes in production. Mr Maduro said the conference had
been a "good day of work. "Alba is driving our comprehensive development model with
democracy and equality, strengthening the new independence. "Latin America and the
Caribbean are following the path indicated by (independence hero Simon) Bolivar and rescued
by the historical force of (Hugo) Chavez, thanks to President Correa," he said. The summit was
the first without former Venezuelan president Mr Chavez, who spearheaded the Alba project to
strengthen Latin America's hand against US imperialism. "Chavez lives in every struggle of our
peoples for dignity. Today Ecuador paid tribute to him. Thanks brothers," Mr Maduro added.
Mr Correa pointed to the differences between Alba and the US-sponsored Organisation of
American States on Tuesday. He asked the summit how the peoples of Latin America and the
Caribbean could continue to support the OAS, given that its venue is the nation "maintaining a
criminal blockade on the island of Cuba." He said the blockade openly violated 50 per cent of
OAS articles and has been condemned by the UN for 21 years in a row. The summit's push for
greater integration also saw an agreement to set up a multinational TV network. The station will
broadcast the speeches by Alba heads of state and government on political, economic and social
issues.
ALBA goes global – solves poverty and other social things also
unilateral action by Venezuela will be resented
Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30, (Xll ALBA Summit in Ecuador Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30/2013,
http://www.tortillaconsal.com/albared/node/2241)//LOH
Progressive forces have made substantial advances in the region over the last few years,
following the failure of neoliberal policies and the determination of powerful elites to impose
free trade frameworks on our peoples, to the point of wanting to turn our peoples into
instruments to satisfy market needs. Those advances empowered the majorities through an
increase in the militancy of social movements and the arrival in power of revolutionary
governments in Latin America and the Caribbean, which have brought tangible improvements
to our peoples' quality of life. However, at the moment we are witnessing the appearance of new
forms of exploitation by way of the imposition of tools like bilateral investment protection
treaties and the workings of international arbitration bodies like the International Centre for the
Settlement of Investment Disputes (CIADI), which prioritize the interests of capital over the
interests of society, those of the natural world and even of democratic institutions, in the context
of proliferating Free Trade Treaties. It is by means of these new mechanisms of domination
that our countries' stability is placed at risk – including our very economic solvency –
on the basis of legal processes vitiated from the start by nullity, abuse and the collusion of
special interests. Undoubtedly, the cases of Oxy and Chevron in Ecuador constitute clear
examples of these practices, for which reason we express our backing to this sister country
affected as it is by those practices, but, in different degrees, these extend to other countries too.
None of the foregoing implies an outright rejection of Foreign Direct Investment, rather the
need for an intelligent relationship with it, permitting its use for the benefit of nations rather
than its optimization to their detriment. For that reason, integration mechanisms like ALBA
are indispensable insofar that, as a block, we are able to impose conditions that prevent the
predominance of capital interests over those of the population. On the other hand, we also make
clear the right and the need of our peoples to use in a sustainable and responsible way their nonrenewable natural resources, which have the potential to be used as an important source of
economic development, social justice and the definitive welfare of our peoples, with the clear
recognition that the leading imperative of our time – and our region – is to fight poverty and
immiseration. In that respect, we reject the extremist positions of particular groups which,
under the slogan of anti-extraction, systematically oppose the use of our natural resources,
demanding that this should only be done with the prior consent of individuals and communities
living around those sources of wealth. In practice, that would make it impossible to take
advantage of that resource option and ultimately compromise the successes that have so far
been achieved in social and economic terms. ALBA proposes working together so as to
ensure progressively the guaranteed provision at no cost of education, health care, support for
people with disability, among other areas, as high quality public services. We should relaunch
social programmes in all the ALBA countries. To that end, we propose no longer turning
our countries into free trade zones but rather into zones free of hunger, illiteracy,
immiseration and marginalization. We seek to extend this focus throughout Latin
America and also to Africa and other parts of the world so that, within the framework of SouthSouth cooperation, we can multiply the benefits of these programmes. While some big
multinational businesses enter these parts of the world with predatory intentions, ALBA seeks to
prioritize and enhance the human person wherever possible.
ALBA working on regional cooperation also expanding to BRIC
cooperation—the plan is unpopular and perceived as unilateral
expansion destroys ALBA credibility
Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30, (Xll ALBA Summit in Ecuador Declaration of ALBA from the Pacific, 7/30/2013,
http://www.tortillaconsal.com/albared/node/2241)//LOH
That demands an integral and alternative vision of development, not limited only to seeking
trade agreements that subject us to the dictatorship of markets, the privatization of basic
services or imposing precarious employment in the name of competition. To the contrary, we
should guarantee productive development in those areas of activity where we can promote
synergies, counting on the genuine strengths of our countries. Especially in areas like energy ,
internal regional trade , food production , intermediate industries , investments and
finance . Equally, we should work out new relationships internationally, for which reason that
idea will be proposed to the so called BRICS countries. Additionally, we agree the formation of a
permanent multi-disciplinary consultative ALBA group to be alert to risks and to address those
need in countries, or groups of countries, that require a high level of analysis given the
complexity of the social and economic problems they face. Furthermore, bodies like the
Organization of American States along with certain of its components, like the Inter-American
Human Rights System merit deep changes so as to place them effectively at the service of our
peoples rather than in the service of powerful special interest groups like the media empires and
other interests cloaked as NGOs. For that reason we urge the need to move the seat of the InterAmerican Commission for Human Rights to a State Party to the American Human Rights
Convention. Addressing the principle of the indivisibility of human rights, we consider it
intolerable that certain human rights prevail over others. And too, it is necessary to set aside the
ill-considered idea of Western NGOs that only States violate human rights. No doubt at all exists
that other protagonists – such as corporations – can also violate those rights. ALBA calls for a
conference against fascism in Caracas next September 11th in homage to our comrade President
Salvador Allende on the 40th Anniversary of his murder. ALBA resolves to form a legaltechnical team to study the preparation of a demand against the United States of North America
for the implanting of a system of mass espionage around the world in violation of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights along with other international legal norms for the next session of
the UN General Assembly. Taking into account the important results achieved in Haiti in the
area of cooperation , the ALBA countries have decided to reinforce that same cooperation in the
areas of health care , education and social programmes . In the same way. It has been
decided to make an immediate evaluation of the special plan for Haiti so as to give it new
momentum and to study funding alternatives so as to make the social programmes contained in
that plan sustainable.
ALBA represents a post hegemonic from of regional cooperation
Riggirozzi, 2012, (Riggirozzi, Pía, New Political Economy, Volume 17, Number 4, 1
September 2012 , pp. 421-443(23), “Region, Regionness and Regionalism in Latin America:
Towards a New Synthesis”,
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/cnpe/2012/00000017/00000004/art0000
3)/loh
Latin American regional governance today represents a conglomerate of commercial, political
and trans-societal welfarist integration projects. In this overlapping and sometimes conflicting
scenario what Latin Americanness should mean, and how integration projects should respond to
current challenges of global political economy are being redefined. The focus of the paper is
twofold: to better understand current regional transformations and to discuss what new
developments mean for how we theorise non-European regionalism. Looking at the Bolivarian
Alliance for the Americas and the Union of South American Nations we ask: How are we to
understand regional agreements that are grounded in different systems of rules, alternative
ideas and motivations that contest `open regionalism'? We argue that Union of South American
Nations (UNASUR) and Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) represent different
pathways to regional building, creating foundations for post-hegemonic and post-trade regional
governance. We thus challenge New Regionalist approaches that assume regionalism as taking
place within and modelled by neoliberal economics, establishing the debate around `old' vs.
`new' regionalism. As these categories are limited in grasping the full meaning and implications
of post-hegemonic regional orders, we discuss UNASUR and ALBA as `arenas for action' to
understand divergent practices, outcomes and types of regionness emerging in alternative
regional spaces in South America.
ALBA is key to regional stability
Hirst, 2010, ( Joel D. Hirst: International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on
Foreign Relations, “The Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas - Hugo Chavez’s Bold Plan”,
11/2/2010, http://ibde.org/component/content/article/111-the-bolivarian-alliance-of-theamericas-hugo-chavezs-bold-plan.html)//LOH
“In this way, we fully agree that the ALBA will not become a reality under mercantilist criteria or
based upon the selfish interests of private profit; or for one nations benefit at the expense of
others…” WITH THIS STATMENT and the flourishing of their pens, on December 14, 2004
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro signed into life a bold new integration
mechanism for Latin-America and the Caribbean. Thus began the Bolivarian Alliance of the
Americas (ALBA), “…a geopolitical, geo-economic, social, cultural and ideological organization.”
Initially a reaction to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, a Clinton era plan for a
hemispheric wide trade pact, the ALBA was founded to serve as a geopolitical counterweight to
the United States. As the ALBA takes shape, its core principles are becoming clear. It is a statist
agreement meant to facilitate government-to-government interaction based upon the principles
of solidarity, cooperation, fair trade, fight against poverty and social ills, and the joint
development of member countries. The proposal seeks to open room for government
intervention, allowing the state to move beyond regulation and arbitration into the direct
delivery of “social justice” to the majority poor of their countries. What started as a simple
agreement to share goods and services between the governments of Havana and Caracas has
surged forward with stunning speed and success to become an important player in the daily lives
of millions of people across member countries, and a powerful political block in its own right.
After only six years, the ALBA boasts a membership of eight countries, namely Venezuela, Cuba,
Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines – with Iran, Syria and Haiti as observers. Together, the member countries
encompass a landmass of 2.5 million square miles, 70 million people and a GDP of over $600
Billion. In its short history, ALBA has held ten presidential summits. They have signed dozens of
joint declarations and agreements, and have established social, political, and economic councils
and a secretariat to oversee and evaluate their achievements. The ALBA countries have begun
work on twelve “Gran-National” priority project areas. These projects, and their corresponding
“Gran-National” companies, are fostering the sharing of technical knowledge and fomenting
trade in basic goods and services between countries. While success has been mixed, some
notable advances have been made, including the establishment of an ALBA bank with $1 billion
in capital, the creation of a regional trade currency called the SUCRE, and the initiation of 17
large-scale development projects across the region. Through ALBA Communications, these
South American states have purchased a Chinese satellite, at a cost of over $400 million, and are
running a fiber-optic cable from Havana to Caracas. They have purchased a handful of
important television stations in member countries and have established hundreds of radio
stations, with an online news wire service for downloading documentaries, news stories and
videos; and they founded TeleSUR, an increasingly important Spanish language regional news
outlet. ALBA Health has set up a school with the Health Ministry in Havana, has performed over
one million eye surgeries, has sent 75,000 health workers to visit over two million homes, and is
currently managing five camps in Haiti housing over 17,000 earthquake victims. ALBA Culture
has held three Olympic style ALBA Games in Havana with participants from over thirty
countries, sponsored tourism fairs, literature competitions, and produced movies. And these
represent just a handful of the advances of ALBA projects. More importantly, the ALBA
country leaders exert concerted effort to shore up each other during moments of
instability brought on by their vigorous attempts to usher in “21st Century Socialism,” an
economic model roughly based upon Marxist ideas. In Bolivia during the conflicts with the
regional prefects, Venezuela provided President Evo Mo-rales engineers and financing to build a
military base to soothe the passions of a disgruntled military. During Ecuador’s recent police
unrest the ALBA centralized regional political backing of President Correa. After the fraudulent
2008 elections in Nicaragua the ALBA provided $50 million upon the United States severing its
assistance package. And in Honduras, the ALBA offers ongoing financial, moral, and
organizational support to ex-president Mel Zelaya after he was ousted for attempting to hold a
referendum of questionable legality.
ALBA—Neolib Impact
ALBA is key to a global socialist revolution
Piitso, 2013, (Phatse Justice Piitso, the former Ambassador to the republic of Cuba and the
former provincial secretary of the SACP, “Once again the Bolivarian Socialist Revolution and the
heroic people of the Republic of Venezuela have triumphed over adversity”, 4/2013,
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/umsebenzionline/c5l3k67qzvw/DmQ5AYlNA3gJ)//LOH
We take the opportunity to join the progressive movement and the people of the world to
congratulate the Bolivarian socialist revolution, the heroic people of the socialist republic of
Venezuela and our newly elected President, Cde Nicolas Maduro, for the successful national
elections. The results of the elections are a living testimony that the Bolivarian socialist
revolution of our America derives its existence from the foundations of our democratic
principles. The momentous victory by the revolutionary forces of Bolivar represents the highest
form of expression and appreciation of the leadership of their Commander in Chief and the
leader of the revolution Cde President Hugo Chavez. The people of Venezuela have reaffirmed
the legacy of the leader of their revolution Hugo Chavez against the wishes and the
interests of the US led imperialism . He died for the noble cause of the struggles for the
liberation of the working class throughout the world. The Bolivarian socialist revolution has
defeated the most highly sponsored political movement by the US imperialism in the world.
Therefore the victory of the popular will of the people of Venezuela is the victory against
imperialism and colonialism. The people have defeated a US sponsored counter revolution from
the heart of their motherland. The successful victory of the Bolivarian socialist revolution has
added the necessary impetus to the working class movement across the world to take forward
the momentum of our struggles against the imperialist oppression and exploitation. The
triumph of our revolutionary forces is indeed a giant leap forward to our struggles for the
liberation of our people in the former colonies and semi colonies. It is indeed a triumph of our
revolution against adversity. Our beautiful Bolivarian socialist revolution has indeed proven to
the world that in the cause of the revolutionary struggles of the working class, great revolutions
always bring great men to the forefront and therefore unearth talents beyond the imagination of
man. The US led imperialism has never imagined that a humbled revolution can produce out of
an ordinary son of the working class, out of a bus driver, an outstanding and the most
revolutionary leader of the calibre of President Nicolas Maduro. It is also worrisome that the US
is instigating its garrison of counter revolution to reject the outcomes of such a fair and
democratic elections. This attempt to reject legitimate democratic process constitute
a major threat to the peace and security of the people of Venezuela and the region.
Imperialism and colonialism is much worried by the success of the struggles of our people in the
former colonies and semi colonies. The strength and the organisation of the working class is
increasingly shaking the foundations of imperialism. The US led imperialism will never come to
terms that the working class in Venezuela under the leadership of President Maduro is leading
the most powerful revolutionary socialist movement of the 21th century at its doorsteps. The
Latin American region is becoming the pinnacle of the world wide struggles against imperialism
and colonial domination. The heroic people of the Latin America are following the giant
footprints of their revolutionary leader and the father of their wars of independence Simon
Bolivar. He was a great leader who led relentless struggles for the independence of the whole of
latin America against Spanish imperialism and colonialism. The are inspired by the most
revolutionary and exemplary leadership of the slave people whose struggles led to the
declaration of the first independent slave republic of Haiti.It is inspiring to mention that it was
the revolution of Haiti under the leadership of President Alexandre Petion, which assisted
Simon Bolivar with the military and financial resources that defeated the Spanish colonialism in
the region. Immediately after the defeat of the US sponsored puppet government through
popular elections in 1998, the newly elected President, Cde Hugo Chavez, declared the socialist
character of the Bolivarian socialist republic of Venezuela. The reason why this formidable
socialist revolution is named after the visionary leader of the struggles of the people of Latin
America, Simon Bolivar. Cde Hugo Chavez was inspired by the heroic struggles of the people of
Haiti who declared the first slave independent republic in the history of mankind. He stood to
the true traditions that liberated Latin America from Spanish colonialsm. The Bolivarian
Alliance for the people of our America is the first formidable block of emerging countries of the
former colonies and semi colonies to have declared the socialist character of their revolution
after the collapse of the socialism in the Soviet Union and the communist states of the Eastern
Europe. It is a regional organization that has achieved tremendous success to integrate the
social, political and the economic terrain of the region based on revolutionary socialist
principles. The new struggles to advance a socialist revolution in the Latin America has ushered
in a new and unprecedented world political situation in the aftermath of the cold war. It is in
this this region where the working class struggles have made decisive advances to conquer state
power, liquidate imperialism and at the same time continue to consolidate the victories of their
Bolivarian socialist revolution of our 21th century. The Bolivarian socialist revolution has
become the epicenter of struggles against the US led neoliberal economic policies throughout
the world. Most of the regional governments have opted for the socialist model of economic
ownership through nationalization of the key sectors of their economy. The Bolivarian Alliance
for the people of the America is preparing its people to embrace the reconstruction of a new
society based on values of socialist democratic principles. Most of the governments in the region
are consolidating a regional economic integration model based on the vision of social welfare,
bartering and mutual economic aid. They are encouraging a state centered trade model
driven by the principle of solidarity instead of the monopolistic US neoliberal
framework . The Bolivarian socialist revolution is posing a challenge to the US economic
domination in the American hemisphere. The community of over 33 Latin American
and Caribbean states has formed a new economic alliance the exclusion of the dominant US
empire. The organization of the American states( OAS) is no more a hegemonic power over the
complex socio economic relations of the region. The Bolivarian socialist revolution underway in
the Latin America is a symbol of hope to the working class movement throughout the world. The
prospects and possibilities of a new socialist block after the collapse of the Soviet Union are
taking shape in the Latin America. We appreciate this revolutionary offspring of the Cuban
revolution. The Bolivarian revolution is a symbol of hope to all humanity. Phatse Justice
Piitso is the former Ambassador to the republic of Cuba and the former provincial secretary of
the SACP writing this article on his personal capacity.
Corruption
Uniqueness
Maduro regime takes on corruption and crime, but keeping
“Chavista” alive is crucial to legitimacy
Global Post, 7/27, (Staff Writer, 7/27/2013, “Maduro tested as Venezuela's economy
worsens”, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130727/maduro-tested-venezuelaseconomy-worsens#1)//LOH
A hundred days after taking office, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has withstood
opposition challenges to his election but is now being put to the test by a deepening economic
crisis. "Maduro has won the battle of legitimacy with the opposition," said political analyst John
Magdaleno, who said the president's political standing is secure both inside and outside the
country. The hand-picked successor to the charismatic Hugo Chavez, Maduro boasted of his
government's staying power this week at a celebration marking the birthday of Simon Bolivar,
the 19th century South American independence hero Chavistas revere. "It's not 100 days. It's
100 years that the revolution will be here: 100 years of the Bolivarian, Chavista, socialist
revolution," Maduro declared. The street violence, marches and counter-marches, and bitter
exchanges of insults that followed Maduro's slender victory in the polls now appear to be behind
him. Though the election results are still disputed by opposition rival Henrique Capriles,
tensions have eased in Venezuela. "The intensity of the confrontation, the frequency of the
verbal disputes, have gone down," said Magdaleno . But the president still must show he
can keep the Chavista ranks united and assert control over the decision-making
process, he cautioned. Since coming to office, Maduro has met with representatives of the
business sector, owners of private media companies, and labor and religious leaders. He has also
visited various Latin American countries, and assumed the rotating leadership of Mercosur, a
South American trading bloc that Venezuela recently joined as a full member. "Maduro has been
gradually steadying himself, using stagecraft and propaganda, but he still must take concrete
steps," said Maxim Ross, an economist at the Universidad Monte Avila. Pollster Luis Vicente
Leon said that, strikingly, Maduro has dared to involve himself in two issues that Chavez had
always managed to avoid: corruption and crime . "Chavez could avoid the issue because he
did not pay a political price for the insecurity: he wasn't seen as responsible for it, and he just
didn't talk about the noose in the hanged man's house," Leon wrote in the local press. Over the
past weeks, Capriles, the young opposition leader who galvanized the opposition in two election
campaigns after years of losses to Chavez, has pursued a "crusade for the truth" both inside and
outside the country, with mixed results. He was received by the presidents of Colombia and
Chile, to the fury of the Maduro government, but not by those of Mexico and Peru. As he awaits
a Supreme Court decision on his three month old challenge to the election results, the Miranda
state governor faces an uphill battle in keeping his base motivated. But he did succeed in
creating doubt about the honesty of Venezuela's election authorities. "Although the electoral
challenge no longer has the same relevance, the doubt did take hold. About half the country did
not think the results were correct," Magdaleno said. "He will continue making charges, probably
going to international fora, but I don't think this will have enough of an impact to turn the
legitimacy of the Maduro government, which is calculating the exact timing to produce the
sentence of the Supreme Court so as to undo the opposition electorate," he said.
Maduro is taking on corruption now—public trust is crucial
WOLA, 7/15, (David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, WOLA, Venezuelan Politics and
Human Rights, “Maduro’s Anti-corruption Campaign, part I”, 7/15/2013,
http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55514972170/maduros-anti-corruption-campaign-parti)//LOH
In recent weeks President Nicolas Maduro has taken on corruption with the announcement of
arrests of a number of mid-level government officials. These include multiple officials from both
tax collection agency SENIAT and consumer protection agency INDEPABIS, the ex-President of
Ferrominera (state mining company), an inspector from the Ministry of Health, and five officials
involved in a multi-million dollar scam involving the China Fund. (A list compiled by
Hinterlaces of government officials arrested so far can be read here) Addressing corruption is a
challenge for any government since it ipso facto highlights its own failures. But this is especially
true for a socialist, revolutionary governments whose discourse associates social ills, especially
those having to do with greed and dishonesty, with capitalism. Maduro has addressed this by
suggesting that “corruption is an anti-socialist and anti-revolutionary act.” In a May 4
declaration, Maduro announced the creation of a “secret agency” that would fight corruption
wherever it is found: “To those who are corrupt but dress in red [socialist party’s colors], I say
we are coming for you. We will be implacable.” Maduro also quoted Simón Bolívar staying the
starting point of the anti-corruption struggle should be a moral one: “One of the greatest
dangers is the demoralization of the people. A decrease in public morality soon causes the
dissolution of the State. This is why the Fourth Republic [Venezuela’s democracy from 19581998] went into dissolution; it morally declined and disintegrated because of corruption.” Other
government officials have been making public declarations on the issue as well. Vice-president
Jorge Arreaza said they aimed to weed out corruption from “all the ministries, all of our
procedures. We need to detect internal corruption, but also corruption of the right [opposition
leaders], in their governorships, their mayors, their political parties.” The Fiscal General Luisa
Ortega Díaz discussed corruption in an interview, suggesting it is not unique to Venezuela: “the
theme of corruption in the world is almost contemporary to the birth of humanity.” The
appointment of the new INDEPABIS director Eduardo Samán is seen as part of this anticorruption campaign. Among government supporters Samán, is regarded as a radical of high
ethical standards. He declared on July 7 that “We now see a disposition by the national
government to fight this corruption and my appointment has to do with that, with the
disposition to fight corruption among public functionaries, but also business corruption.” In our
next post we will look at critical reactions to Maduro’s fight against corruption.
Maduro is framing corruption as “mocking” the people
Venezuela Analysis, 7/15, (Staff, “Four New Cases of Corruption “Mock” Venezuelan
People, Says Maduro” 7/15/2013, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9859)//LOH
Four cases of corruption, reported throughout the country in recent days, have caused
frustration about the misuse of state money and resources. On Friday in Caracas, the Attorney
General arrested 13 members of the group “Angels of the Revolution,” which illegally charged
citizens interested in receiving benefits from the government’s missions. Conceived by the late
President Hugo Chávez with the goal of redistributing the country’s oil wealth, the missions are
entirely free. Operating from Caracas’ Central Park area, the fund allegedly offered to facilitate
access to 11 different missions, including pensions for the elderly or an apartment in a newlyconstructed housing complex from the Misión Vivienda, or Mission Housing, for a rate of 1,000
to 20,000 bolivars (roughly $150 to $3200 USD at the official exchange rate). “I call on
authorities to give the maximum punishment for these bandits who mock our people,” President
Nicolas Maduro said. To the east of the capital, in Monagas state, authorities detained the
manager of the legal division of Pdvsa, the state-run oil company, for charging a contractor
600,000 bolivars in order to fix a legal setback. The act, reported by representatives of the
contractor, occurred one week ago, on July 8. The litigation superintendent of the state’s legal
division was also detained on charges of extortion and conspiracy. To the South of Monagas, in
the mineral-rich state of Bolívar, former Ferrominera Orinoco (FDO) President Radwan
Sabbagh was arrested on several corruption charges, including embezzlement, evasion of
tendering procedures, the consultation of public officials with contractors, and conspiracy. FDO
is a state-owned company that extracts and processes iron ore. In a press conference on
Saturday, the secretary general of the FDO worker’s union, Ruben Gonzalez, who has himself
stood trial for corruption six times, claimed that the arrest was only one piece of more illegal
activity at the factory that is led by mafias. Meanwhile, during a broadcast from the Street
Government in the western state of Apure, Maduro condemned mafias throughout the western
llanos region that he alleged were charging farmers for access to agricultural loans. He called
upon his Ministers for Agriculture and Land and Internal Relations to investigate the
“completely illegal” actions. “ This is treason to the people … to the revolution,” he said.
“I want to receive the reports of this occurring in various states, that various bandits are saying
they represent the government. I want to capture them all. If you give me the information, I'll go
and find them today. Let's raid and capture these bandits, wherever they are.”
Maduro is taking on corruption now but is under high scrutiny every
political action is key to maintain stability
WOLA, 7/17, (WOLA, David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz, “Maduro’s Anti-corruption
Campaign, part II”, 7/17/2013, http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55689710268/madurosanti-corruption-campaign-part-ii)//LOH
On Monday we looked at the Maduro government’s efforts to fight against corruption. In recent
weeks multiple government officials have been arrested. Opposition critics have pointed to the
selective nature of the cases, suggesting that Maduro’s efforts are more about politics than
justice. The decidedly mid-level character of the officials who have been targeted thus far has led
many to suggest that Maduro won’t touch the big fish. For example Carlos Vecchio of Voluntad
Popular points out that while Maduro talks about corruption “he has at his side Diosdado
Cabello, who is one of the people that has been denounced the most for serious corruption.”
However, even selective pursuit could help Maduro gain internal control over his
coalition . Pollster Luis Vicente León has said that through the fight against corruption:
“Maduro can show that he is willing to attack groups within chavismo that are out of control. He
is warning that if any chavista revolts, he may be accused of corruption.” Former presidential
candidate Henrique Capriles has wryly suggested that the corruption campaign is necessarily
selective. “If they really go in depth with the corruption issue, they will be left without a
government.” Opposition figures have also been the target of the anti-corruption campaign.
Most notably, the Primero Justica National Assembly representative Richard Mardo, who was
dramatically accused in February in the National Assembly of fraud and money laundering for
contributions that were never declared to the National Electoral Council or tax authorities.
Mardo has declared that he is being politically persecuted. He says he was blackmailed by the
government coalition who said they would not bring these charges if he switched parties and
came to their side. The PSUV does not quite have the two thirds majority it wants in the
National Assembly and has, in the past year, peeled away several opposition legislators. The
National Assembly is in the process of annulling his parliamentary immunity to allow him to be
tried. Primero Justicia has said they stand by Mardo. Capriles recently suggested the
government is pursuing him in order "cover over its own disaster."
Maduro is fighting corruption now
AVN, 7/11, (AVN, Venezuelan Embassy to the United States, “Attorney General:
President Maduro Facilitating Institutional Cooperation in Anti-Corruption Efforts”, 7/11/2013,
http://venezuela-us.org/2013/07/11/president-maduro-facilitating-institutional-cooperationin-anti-corruption-efforts/)//LOH
Luisa Ortega Díaz, Venezuela’s Attorney General, spoke on Wednesday about corruption, a
crime she considers universal and one which Venezuela is fighting head on. Ortega Días
emphasized that President Nicolás Maduro is “aware of what could happen in the country and
worried about corruption, and he wants institutions to heed the call and join in the campaign
against corruption.” In an interview on Globovisión, the Attorney General noted that
“corruption is almost as old as humanity itself.” Ortega Díaz also touched on an ongoing case in
which eight people were arrested, accused of embezzling $84 million from the China-Venezuela
Fund that is administrated through Venezuela’s Economic and Social Development Bank
(Bandes). “Those citizens are currently facing a hearing; attorneys have already gone through
the facts of what each of them presumably committed and they have made preliminary
conclusions,” she noted. The Attorney General added that they will be able to exercise their right
to present their defense, which might clarify the facts of the case. Fight against Impunity Ortega
Díaz also stressed that concrete steps are being taken in the fight against impunity, including the
Safe Homeland Operation (an anti-crime security initiative led by the Maduro administration).
“This plan is not just about fighting crime, but also about prevention through [emphasizing]
values. Moreover, officials are up to the task at hand,” she said.
Maduro is taking on corruption now—keeping Chavismo alive is
crucial to his longterm success
Wall Street Journal, 4/8, (WSJ, Kejal Vyas, Staff, “Ahead of Election, Venezuela's
Maduro Pledges to Fight Graft”, 4/8/2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130408708466.html)//LOH
Venezuela's interim leader Nicolas Maduro said Monday he will launch a new government
program aimed at eliminating graft, the latest campaign promise from the heir apparent to late
leader Hugo Chavez, ahead of Sunday's presidential elections. Pledging to "confront
corruption with my very life," Mr. Maduro said he started the creation of agencies that will
investigate corruption allegations. "No one is untouchable here," Mr. Maduro told a crowd in the
eastern oil-rich state of Monagas. Mr. Maduro named his new anti-corruption cause the Grand
Mission Efficiency or Nothing and said investigative units will inspect, among other areas, basic
industry companies, many of which are state-owned and have seen low productivity and
frequent labor strife. "I need you all to be my inspectors," Mr. Maduro told a rally of party
loyalists. The 50-year-old, who served as Mr. Chavez's foreign minister for more than six years
and as vice president for several months before the populist's March 5 death, is looking to
address accusations from opposition leader Henrique Capriles who has charged that top
government officials have been involved in cronyism and scamming money from the state's
coffers. During a large opposition rally in Caracas on Sunday, Mr. Capriles repeatedly referred to
the torchbearers of Mr. Chavez's leftist revolution using a Spanish term for those who make
their money through no more than their connections. "They're a small group that says they're
socialists but look at how they live; the big cars they ride in; count how many bodyguards they
have and how many trips they've been on. They're more familiar with the world than
Venezuela," Mr. Capriles said to a crowd of thousands who filled a major downtown avenue of
the capital. Mr. Maduro holds a comfortable double-digit point lead over his rival in most polls.
Both have been running a hectic nationwide tour during the 10-day campaigning period, which
draws to a close April 11. Analysts expect the ruling socialist party to use Mr. Chavez's
image and legacy to continue consolidating power in the near term . But they've also
raised concerns over Mr. Maduro's ability to control various divisions within the leftist
movement in the long run. Indeed, Mr. Maduro has repeatedly invoked the name of his
predecessor and has promised to extend the social programs that made the former army officer
wildly popular among the poor for 14 years.
Maduro is appealing to the people with anti-corruption key to
increase legitimacy and stability
AVN, 8/2, (AVN, “Maduro calls to fight corruption on the streets”, 8/2/2013,
http://www.avn.info.ve/node/185543)//LOH
Corruption shall be fought on the streets, urged Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro before
informing that he will take part on a march against corruption convened by organized
movements and collectives for next August 3rd. "I accompany the call that is being made,
especially the youth. Let's fight and struggle on the streets," Maduro said during a cabinet
meeting at Miraflores Presidential Palace on Thursday. The President called again to reinforce
and support the battle against corruption at all levels. Thus, he condemned the automatic
support given by opposition legislators and private media to political leaders involved in illegal
actions. For instance, he mentioned Richard Mardo, a legislator whose parliamentary immunity
was removed over tax fraud and money laundering accusations. The Supreme Court of Justice
said it found enough elements for a trial. In this connection, president Maduro said that media
outlets have undertaken a campaign in support that in the end legitimizes corruption. "You,
media owners; you, decent politicians in the opposition... You are creating monsters and
opposition owners are becoming majority shareholders," he said. That scenario makes clear that
there are two models of homeland in Venezuela, Maduro said: the one revolutionaries fight for
and the other the Right expects to impose. "There is a model of homeland with right to decency,
labor, life, prosperity and homeland; and a model of anti-homeland, morally decomposed
everywhere."
Maduro framing anti-corruption as a group effort in attempt to gain
legitimacy and support from the people
AVN, 8/2, (AVN, “Maduro calls to fight corruption on the streets”, 8/2/2013,
http://www.avn.info.ve/node/185543)//LOH
As Interior relations, justice and peace minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres disclosed an
assassination plan against him, president Nicolas Maduro said: " I will not be taken off the
streets. I will continue on the street with people and we will have to neutralize (that). I
ask people's support to take care of ourselves mutually, but I will not be neutralized with plans,
counter-plans. No. we have to be on the streets with people, making revolution." Two attempts
to assassinate the Venezuelan president have been disclosed so far, Maduro informed. They
were expected to be carried out on July 5th or 24th. President Maduro said the two attempts
were neutralized thanks to information gathered by intelligence corps and security measures
carried out.
Links
The plan is a contradiction tanks credibility
Embassy of the Bolivarian Republic of Cuba, 6/10, (AVN, “President Maduro
Announces Anti-Corruption Operation, 6/10/2013, http://venezuelaus.org/2013/06/10/president-maduro-announces-anti-corruption-operation/)//LOH
On his twitter account, @NicolasMaduro, he said that the operation is being carried out to
dismantle a group of extortionists found in the agency. He said that corruption is goes against
the country’s values and should be confronted by all Venezuelans. “Today at dawn we began an
anti-corruption operation in INDEPABIS against a group of extortionists, we’re going to root out
corruption,” he wrote on twitter. He called on the Venezuelan people to file complaints in order
to make national efforts to combat corruption more efficient. “I thank the people for their
complaints, corruption is a sickness of the anti-values of capitalism , let’s all confront it,”
the President wrote. Later in the day on Sunday, he wrote, “I invite you to join the fight against
corruption and the economic sabotage against the people, let’s work together, all of us.” Maduro
also announced that he named former Commerce Minister Eduardo Samán the new head of the
consumer protection agency, “to make a revolution within the revolution, to protect the people.”
Maduro is framing corruption as a capitalist means—the plan will be
perceived as a contradiction and cause backlash
Ecuador Times, 6/25, (“Maduro: “The corruption is going to swallow the country””,
6/25/2013, http://www.ecuadortimes.net/2013/06/25/maduro-the-corruption-is-going-toswallow-the-country/)//LOH
The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, said
that corruption “is going to swallow the country” if it is not
faced with a “power struggle” and noted that no socialist or “revolutionary” can be corrupt. Today in a
mandatory speech broadcast on network television and radio as a part of the celebration of the 192 years of the Battle of
independence of Venezuela and in memory of the late president, Hugo Chavez, the head of state asked the people to fight
corruption wherever they are, “in friendly fields” or in the “fascist right wing” where he said
there is “a bunch of scoundrels ” who want to sell the country’s wealth. “Every corrupt is
anti-Chavez, anti-socialist, is a capitalist even if they wear a red beret,” said Maduro. Whoever wants
to pay tribute to Chavez, who –he ensured- “died poor, left no inheritance, he left nothing when he left this life, must fight for a
country of honest citizens,” he said. For the Venezuelan opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles,
“having a homeland” is to have the right conditions to live. “Having homeland is that our children can go to a school that is not
falling to pieces, is that we don’t get robbed and killed, having a homeland is to have a salary that lasts, or to have clean water,” said
the opposition leader during the third edition of his weekly show Venezuela Somos Todos, which is transmitted through the Internet
portal Capriles.tv.
Venezuela is in transition now Maduro needs legitimacy in his anticorruption campaign to quell the divide in the populous and avert
social unrest from escalating
LTS of Venezuela, 6/28, (“The stage of post-chavismo begun under Maduro’s
government and the challenges of the working class”, 6/28/2013, http://www.ft-ci.org/Thestage-of-post-chavismo-begun-under-Maduro-s-government-and-thechallenges?lang=en)//LOH
The post-chavista transition on a traumatic course, under conflicts and tensions 8. As we are
already observing, the transition to a post-chavista stage is becoming traumatic. As we have
maintained, with Chávez’ physical disappearance, that equilibrium of the forces on which he
settled, has come to an end, and, since it was based on personal Bonapartism, it had a basis of
permanent instability, and it would turn into a source of chaos, if he disappeared physically, and
this is the case. As we have seen with the April 14 elections, the situation has been marked by
political tensions. Now Maduro will have to contend, not only with an emboldened opposition,
that is seeking to render him powerless, permanently, but also with the quarrels within
chavismo itself, and a developing dynamic of struggles by the working class. It seems like a weak
government. Maduro does not have Chávez’ leadership and authority, neither within the
government and its factions, nor with the masses of workers and the poor. The advantage that
the regime has, is established on the bourgeois legacy of Chávez, who restored the authority of
the state in front of the toiling and impoverished masses, by repairing the institutions of the
bourgeois order, discredited and crisis-ridden after the Caracazo, especially the components of
the armed forces, the parliament and the main institution of bourgeois democracy, the vote. As
we know, chavismo came to power in order to repair the power of a capitalist state that had lost
all legitimacy after the crisis of the Punto Fijo regime, but also for a definite bourgeois national
project, that would make concessions to the movement of the masses, by maintaining
disagreements with imperialism, factors that would legitimize it for the repairing of the
institutions mentioned in total crisis. But also, because of the high politicization of the armed
forces, although, on one hand, given their re-legitimization, they could act as a “guarantor” of
the process of post-chavismo transition; on the other hand, they could be a destabilizing
element, if, in the face of a sudden political crisis among the biggest forces in struggle, they want
to enter as mediating forces, and want to represent a more open solution of any crisis that will
be unleashed. 9. The situation that is being experienced, is strained by political traumas,
difficult to ward off, amid the framework of internal forces with their own struggles and
interests, inside the political factions of the governing party, known for its clear political
differentiations, but also of the rest of the bourgeois factions and even of imperialism itself. It is
being confirmed that the role of arbiter, played by Chávez, cannot be carried out by Maduro, nor
by the alleged political clique that would be behind him; the instability that began after Chávez’
physical disappearance is also being confirmed. As we have seen up to now, the traumatic
direction of the political situation of the country has been taking a winding course with
undefined contours. This now means a state of crisis in the way of governing the country, in
which, no matter how much normality the authorities of Maduro’s government want to show, it
is clear that everything is creaking in the real state of things. The anti-corruption movement that
is being organized by the government is an attempt of Maduro to try to supply his government
with oxygen, in the face of the crisis it is going through, but it would also be part of a first
attempt by him, his faction and allies, to develop themselves, their own force, within chavismo,
and make their own achievements in front of the masses, since some prominent people, closely
connected to factions of power, have fallen, as is the case with the former President of the
Ferrominera del Orinoco firm, linked to the Governor of Bolívar State, Rangel Gómez, or in
Seniat itself, where there is speculation that it is an an area of influence of Diosdado Cabello. So
we have the fact that, overall, a traumatic, transitory period is being gone through, where the
clear expression of the conflicts and tensions that is making new forms of political control
emerge, will not be exempt from dangers that could open up political situations difficult for the
current factions that are fighting for political control of the country, to rid themselves of, and
through which the inrush of the workers’ movement could occur.
Maduro’s campaign must not be perceived as a witch hunt to be
effective
WOLA, 7/18, (David Smilde, a WOLA Senior Fellow and Associate Professor of Sociology at
the University of Georgia, lived in or worked on Venezuela since 1992, co-editor of Venezuela's
Bolivarian Democracy: Participation, Politics and Culture under Chávez, and Hugo Pérez
Hernáiz, Associate Professor of Sociology at the Universidad Central de Venezuela, Venezuelan
Politics and Human Rights, hosted by the Washington Office on Latin America, “Maduro’s Anticorruption Campaign, part III”, 7/18/2013,
http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/55777130135/maduros-anti-corruption-campaign-partiii)//LOH
The Maduro government has good reason to direct its attention towards corruption. While it is
endemic in countries dominated by extractive industries, and while the Chávez government was long criticized as corrupt, the
issue has increased in importance in recent years as the social and economic progress of the
2004-2008 period seems to have stagnated. Even among government supporters there is a sinking feeling that
things should be better than they are and that corruption is to blame . Venezuelan polling firm
Datanalisis just released data from June showing perceptions of the government’s work against corruption are worse (-57%) than
any other issue except for crime (-66%). Furthermore, a model Datanalisis uses to hierarchize issues according to how much they
help or hurt Maduro’s job approval shows that perception of corruption is the most potent negative issue. On
July 9 Transparency International (TI) released the results of its 2013 Global Barometer which surveys the perceptions of average
people. According to the survey 57% of Venezuelan respondents think that corruption has
“increased a lot” in the past two years and 83% said corruption is a serious problem in the public
sector. 57% of respondents said that the government’s efforts in fighting corruption were
ineffective. Venezuela ranks 165 of 176 countries in the TI’s corruption perception index which surveys expert’s perception of
corruption. Transparencia Venezuela, the local chapter of TI, has welcomed the government’s renewed focus on corruption but has
questioned the effectiveness of its strategy. In June they put out a press release that urged the government “to translate this push
[against corruption] into public policies supported with adequate resources, technology and knowledge.” They particularly criticized
the fact that this initiative was being carried out by a new, secret organ within the Executive Branch, rather than by strengthening
existing institutions. The country is seeing how acts of corruption have been taking place under their
noses. We are happy that the president has realized this but the fight against corruption is much more
complicated than this. The investigations cannot be put in military hands, nor carried out by secret presidential organisms. The
organization that is in charge of these investigations should do so under the principles of
transparency, autonomy, and security that the fight against powerful and dangerous enemies
requires. They put forth six recommendations to put the country in line with international best practices. Return corruption
investigations to civil justice rather than military intelligence. Guarantee resources and security to the
investigators, police and judges in charge of corruption cases. Investigate the corruption
networks within which these seven individuals [that have been arrested] were immersed, including
their superiors, and take actions to address institutional weaknesses that permitted these acts.
Investigation and prosecution should be carried out by the Judicial Branch not the Executive Branch Due process for those
who are implicated to make sure this does not turn into a witch hunt. Release the declarations of
patrimony that all Venezuelan public employees have to file. More broadly, the press release pointed attention to TV’s 99 point anticorruption plan for 2013-19 released at the end of 2012. The lack of public information on the corruption cases the government has
recently taken on, the fact that the government has not taken on bigger cases, and the improvised nature of the initiative leads TV
director Mercedes de Freites to be skeptical of the government’s efforts. “We still have not seen any important decision that would
make us believe that the government has decided to truly fight against corruption.”
Anti-corruption should not be seen as a one-sided witch hunt
Venezuela Analysis, 7/28, (Staff, “Tackling Institutions One By One: An Interview With
Gregory Wilpert”, 7/28/2013, http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/9884)//LOH
Let’s agree that another major
obstacle to support being much higher - say 80% - is capitalists and other
elite elements blocking and sabotaging efforts at innovation and change, on the one hand, and
corporate media then blaming the shortcomings and everything else they can dream up on
Chavez and the revolution, on the other hand. In that case, wouldn’t a massive campaign about the acts of obstruction and
sabotage and even preventing them via very severe penalties have strong benefits? And wouldn't a massive campaign about what is
freedom of speech and good media, including preventing capitalists from dominating and misusing media, again, far more forcefully
than up to now, also have many benefits? If so, the question becomes, would the benefits of such campaigns be outweighed by their
producing more virulent opposition from elites inside Venezuela, pretext for intervention from outside Venezuela, and also the
possibility of over centralisation domestically. Or would the benefits, and the ensuing clarity of public opinion and advances of
policies, and thus the growing domestic support, outweigh those costs? I wonder your thoughts on this. What do you personally
think is the right mix of moving forward and, as you indicated earlier, understandably and wisely trying to avoid confrontation? OK,
here you ask what the government could do to address the problems that I did not address, because I said these problems tend to
distract from the internal problems that the government could do more about. Your proposal about how the
government could act in response to external threats and sabotage make sense and the
government is doing an enormous amount already in this sense. That is, it has a constant campaign going on
to denounce such acts and often tries to penalize sabotage, such as hoarding of foods or violations of price controls. On the media
front, though, I think the reason this campaign does not work as well as the government hopes is that people are naturally just as
suspicious of pro-government propaganda as they are of opposition propaganda in the private mass media. Actually, they are
probably more suspicious of pro-government media because it is much more obvious to them that there is a link between the
government and the governmental media outlets. However, in the opposition sector, even though everyone more
or less knows that the private media is mostly opposition-oriented, there is more of a pretense of
independence of the private media from the opposition. Personally, as I mentioned earlier, I think the
government has missed an opportunity in its approach to the mass media. Rather than fostering more and more state media outlets
(TV, radio, and newspapers funded by the government have proliferated), the government should have created truly democratic and
independent mass media. Such media would certainly not be anti-government or pro-opposition, but it would try to report in the
interests of the country's working class majority. Maybe one could even create a variety of media outlets that report from the
perspective of a variety of social classes or groups? In any case, nothing along these lines has really been tried. The closest to this
model are the community media, but they remain very small and marginal, despite their proliferation in the Chávez years. Just this
past week, however, the new communications minister, Ernesto Villegas, who is very good, announced a new system of public
media, where the community media would play a much larger role in the major media outlets. Depending on how this is
implemented, this could mean a significant democratization of the state or public media. We'll have to see. With regard to cracking
down harder on opposition sabotage and obstruction, this is certainly something that the government ought to do, but I think
it does that to a large extent already. Here the real problem is that if it does it, first of all, it cannot
be perceived as a onesided opposition witch-hunt, which means, it ought to hit just as hard against corruption within its own ranks. This,
however, does not seem to be happening.
Corruption Impact—Growth
Corruption makes growth impossible, political will is needed to
address corruption
AMI, 12, (AMI, Guillaume Corpart is the Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence
and a veteran of Latin American competitive intelligence and strategy consulting, “The Cost of
Corruption to Latin America’s Competitiveness”, 5/10/2012,
http://americasmi.com/en_US/expertise/articles-trends/page/the-cost-of-corruption-to-latinamericas-competitiveness)//LOH
The World Bank identifies corruption as the single greatest obstacle to economic and social
development. And, indeed, the prevalence of corruption is strongly correlated with a country’s
overall competitiveness. The World Economic Forum estimates that bribe payments amount to
over $1 trillion annually, with Latin American countries being among the most corrupt.1
Meanwhile, the region is struggling in regard to its global competitiveness: Mexico and Brazil,
the region’s two biggest economies, both saw their competitiveness stagnate from 2009 to 2011,
while China became more competitive during the same period.2 Countries that have
tackled corruption have reaped enormous benefits: by some estimates, reducing
corruption can increase per capita income by up to 400 percent .3 That said,
addressing the scourge of corruption entails fundamental changes to how the public sector
operates—and to ingrained attitudes and mentalities. This requires dedicated commitment and
much political will. But with corruption so instilled in the Latin American culture, who is up for
the challenge.
Most solve corruption for case to solve
AMI, 12, (AMI, Guillaume Corpart is the Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence
and a veteran of Latin American competitive intelligence and strategy consulting, “The Cost of
Corruption to Latin America’s Competitiveness”, 5/10/2012,
http://americasmi.com/en_US/expertise/articles-trends/page/the-cost-of-corruption-to-latinamericas-competitiveness)//LOH
The effects of corruption run deep. Countries with high levels of corruption experience lower
acceptance of established institutions, deficient court systems, political instability, and
heightened income inequality. Corruption also lowers the quality of public infrastructure and
expenditures on education and health. Furthermore, there is a direct correlation between
corruption, the growth of the informal economy, and the spread of illicit activity in the form of
organized crime and illegal cartels, among others. Sadly, all of these attributes are all too often
characteristic of many Latin American countries and they all contribute to eroding
competitiveness in the global economy. Empirical data demonstrates this direct correlation
between corruption and competitiveness (see Exhibit 3). The reduction of a country’s corruption
level increases its overall economic performance, most notably with an increase in foreign direct
investment. Estimates show that a 1-point improvement in a country’s CPI ranking has an
economic impact equivalent to a 7.5% general tax increase. Similarly, a 1-point deterioration
reduces GDP growth by an estimated 0.13% and GDP per capita by US$ 425.6 As a result, many
countries in the region are not in a position to reap the full benefits of modern, well-run
economies, whose value-added increasingly comes from private sector innovation. As long as
private sector companies bears a heavy cost due to corruption, their incentives to invest in
research and development or high-risk innovative ventures will remain limited. According to the
World Economic Forum, economies can be categorized into three stages: factor driven,
efficiency driven, and innovation driven. Generally speaking, developing economies are still in
the first phase, fast-developing, emerging economies are categorized in the second, and
developed economies are in the third. Latin America and China both currently considered
Transition 2-3 economies (meaning they are focused on boosting higher education and training;
reaping efficiencies in product markets, the labor market, and the financial sector; and
improving their technological readiness—all with the goal of acceding to the third stage, where
the focus shifts to increasing business sophistication and innovation). However , it is difficult
to conceive of a country that can adequately transition to an innovation-based
economy when it is saddled with high levels of corruption. Worse, when corruption is
endemic, it’s not just a country’s potential that is at stake, but its actual economic growth: the
high levels of corruption seen in most of the region’s economies are inhibiting future growth.
Corruption Impact—Instability
Corruption is directly correlated wit political instability
Tuason, 04, (PhD Thesis, School of Political Science and International Studies, The
University of Queensland, “Corruption - a threat to political stability? : The Philippines, a case
study”, 2004, http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:106894)//LOH
The thesis analyses the association between corruption and political stability using the
Philippines as a case study during the time of the Marcos regime. Research on corruption has
shown that die direct consequences of corruption are felt on the economy, society
and polity . There is both theoretical and empirical evidence to suggest that corruption causes
economic development and growth to falter by promoting a climate which is not conducive to
investment both foreign and domestic, by increasing bureaucratic requirements and by
decreasing market competitiveness. The literature also maintains that indirectly and mainly
through economic stagnation corruption results in social ills, such as, poverty, illiteracy and an
increase in income inequality gaps. Politically, corruption analysts have only tentatively
discussed links between corruption and political instability and done so by primarily using
intervening variables such as loss of governmental legitimacy . Hence, there appears to be
a gap in the literature regarding theoretical discussion and empirical evidence concerning the
effects of corruption on the polity and particularly concerning political stability in terms of
regime stability. The thesis explores these two facets of an under-theorised area and the lack of
evidence regarding interaction between corruption and political stability and posits that
corruption directly caused political instability in the Philippines under the Marcos regime.
Political instability in the thesis is defined in terms of a dramaturgical event constituting an
extra-constitutional executive ouster. Using both primary and secondary sources and a
comparative historical narrative approach the researcher explores three different corruption
types existing under Marcos, crony capitalism, military favouritism and electoral manipulation
and demonstrates how these types of corruption caused regime instability. Both primary sources
such as reports, surveys and interviews and secondary sources were used to support the
argument and eliminate rival hypotheses. Primary sources comprised interviews, a
questionnaire survey, two Work Shops and an examination of documents, and official records.
Secondary sources analysed were in the form of books, journal and magazine articles and
newspaper reports. Case study methodology was chosen as die route to highlight the contextual
complexities of corruption and political stability in the era under examination. Corruption in the
Philippines under Marcos maintained a unique role interrelated to structures and institutions
embedded in the system of governments. The researcher believes that corruption is enmeshed in
a country's political economy, its structures and institutions and that in order to fully
understand the complexities and subtleties of corruption it must be seen within its own milieu
and how it is entrenched within state systems. The route chosen to prove causal relationship in
the thesis was through the elimination of rival hypotheses or proof of non-spuriousness. Three
theories of causes of political instability economic stagnation, military repression and lack of
electoral freedom were refuted using empirical evidence. Although corruption was not the only
remaining variable which could have produced political instability, it was shown in the thesis to
be a substantial causal variable. The thesis demonstrates how counterelites disenfranchised,
marginalised and unable to participate in spoils due to cronyism, military favouritism and
electoral fraud fought back as vehicles of regime change in a so-called People Power Movement
to oust the corrupt dictator. The thesis finds that the relationship between processes of political
instability as in regime change and corruption are mutually reinforcing and that in the case of
the Philippines, due to excessive presidential corruption in an authoritarian environment,
economic, military and political counterelites united in opposition, mobilized and overthrew a
corrupt regime, its leader and supporters.
Corruption Impact—Poverty
Corruption causes poverty
Transparency International, 4/27, (Transparency International, “POVERTY AND
DEVELOPMENT”, 4/27/2012,
http://www.transparency.org/topic/detail/poverty_and_development)//LOH
Year after year, it’s the same. Our
Global Corruption Barometer confirms that corruption hits poor
people hardest – with devastating consequences. A bribe demanded by a police officer may mean that a family can’t
afford school fees or even food to eat. Findings from Mexico, for instance, show that the typical poor
family must spend one-third of their income on bribes. Corruption also means that the services
people depend on – from drinking water to health clinics – suffer. They are often are of a low quality or not
sufficient to meet society’s most basic needs. Corruption siphons off monies needed to improve them while
also distorting policy decisions, such as where roads and schools are built. The 2015 deadline for the
Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty is approaching. But targets might not be met. If not, corruption in governments,
business and regulators will have been a leading cause. The solution?
Corruption causes poverty undermines economic growth
The Frontier Post, 2012, (Staff, “How corruption causes poverty”, October 2012,
http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/182703/)//LOH
Corruption is an effort to secure wealth or power through illegal means for personal gain at
public expense; or a misuse of public power for private or personal benefit. Corruption as a
phenomenon is a global problem and exists in varying degrees in different countries. Corruption
is not only found in democratic and dictatorial politics, but also in feudal, capitalist and socialist
economies. Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist cultures are equally bedeviled by
corruption― Corruption defined as an over use of power for the purpose to achieve their
private goals and objectives. It is just like a horrible wave which has destroyed all working of
departments and unfortunately it is also endemic in Pakistan, both public as well as private
sector under the influence of this factor. Unluckily Pakistan stands top of the corrupt countries.
This magnitude effects not only public and private sector but this phenomenon also maximize in
judiciary, legislature and even in commercial sectors. Corruption is an old age phenomenon.
This phenomenon increased in our society with the passage of time. Corruption means
destruction and exploiting the society or nation. It breaks all the values, integrity and principles
of society. Mostly persons, those have power exercise corruption and exploit the resources of
others on the basis of their power and achieve their private goals. In Pakistan, the effect of
corruption is very worse. Mostly all developmental sectors have been destroyed due to
corruption. Because corruption hinders the development of economic sector and as a result
country’s economy is going down day by day. Consequently poverty has increased in the
country. Corruption takes roots in any society because of low wages, inequality of wealth and
salaries. Inflation is also the economic cause of corruption. Both poor and rich are involved in
the corruption. Rich because they have a power to exploit the resources of others and gaining
more and more wealth. On the other hand poor is always exploited because of their low wages,
social injustice and inflation. These factors compel poor to involve them in corruption. Theobald
argues that poverty is the main cause of corruption. Public as well as private officials, because
they have a low wages and unable to enjoy basic necessities of life, compel people to involve in
corruption. Bad policies of government and lack of codified laws are also responsible for
corruption. Corruption has increased in Pakistan due to different reasons including financial
and political corruption. UNDP stated that two major crises in the world that isthe pillar of
corruption i-e world war II and division of property after the partition of Indian subcontinent.
UNDP shares the phenomenon that both corruption and bad governance shrunk the growth of
economy as well as the working of private developmental sectors as a result poverty increases
(UNDP 1997). Good governance and accountability plays an effective role to reduce the rate of
corruption. Good governance is very important for creating a peaceful
environment, security, rules of law in which the human development can be
promoted . Werlin says the fact that bad policies of government and limited financial
resources are responsible for increasing the wave of corruption in society (Werlin 2002).
Impact—Drug Trafficking
Solving corruption solves drug trafficking which threatens the
stability of the entire region
Southern Pulse, 7/17, (Staff, “Venezuela's Drug Trafficking Problem”, 7/17/2013,
http://www.southernpulse.com/_blog/Clippings/post/venezuelas-drug-traffickingproblem/)//LOH
Early this year, President Nicolas Maduro stated “we have to say to the mafias: whoever is not
from here must leave, and those who are from here must surrender before the law catches up
with you.” Despite its history with drug trafficking, Venezuela has recently become a major
transportation hub for drugs. For its own political survival, Venezuela must increase
its fight against drug trafficking by tackling corruption . But given the country’s
economic and political situation, can something be done about drug trafficking? According to
government figures, 45 tons of drugs were confiscated last year, 3 times higher than the amount
confiscated in 2011. Venezuela blames this trafficking increase on its geography and the
Colombian conflict. Venezuela became a focal point for drug operations in 2005, when former
President Hugo Chavez stopped cooperating with the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA).
While those factors do play a role, a more important issue is that of corruption within the
government. The US Treasury has accused top Venezuelan leaders in both the army and civil
government, such as former defense minister General Henry Rangel Silva, of aiding Colombian
guerrillas’ drug trafficking. The UN estimates that in 2011, more than half of the cocaine seized
en route to Europe originated from Venezuela, while US officials estimate that 90 percent of
planes carrying cocaine to Central America originate from Venezuela. Corruption is so rampant
that there are reports of the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel transporting drugs from Caracas’ Maiquetia
Airport, Venezuela’s largest airport starting in 2005, with complete impunity. Governmental ties
with drug trafficking today in Venezuela resemble that of Mexico’s PRI with the drug cartels
back in the mid and late 1970s, in which PRI officials received bribes, and in return the cartels
kept violence low. This practice faded away as Mexico democratized. Without strong pressure
from their citizens, Venezuelan officials can, and do, benefit from drug trafficking schemes by
levying their political influence. In another way, Venezuela has the same problem as Colombia:
without a state presence in its border provinces, drug traffickers (especially the FARC) can easily
move about without much trouble. Following his election, President Nicolas Maduro sent the
military into the streets to fight both crime and drug trafficking as part of “Plan Patria Segura.”
Maduro reiterated his government’s intolerance for corruption, and announced the creation of
an anti-corruption body that will report directly to him. Courts prosecuted and convicted a
former contractor in Zulia on 10 July and several public officials have been arrested on charges
of misconduct since Maduro’s election. Maduro’s administration would benefit from increased
cooperation with regional partners such as Colombia and Brazil , even if they follow the
Cuban example of having minimal cooperation with US officials. But disrupting the drug trade is
not a long-term solution unless it tackles the underlying problem of official corruption. While
some of his recent steps are promising, Maduro must go after high ranking officials and engage
citizens. Given Venezuela’s economic and political landscape, Maduro is unlikely to exert much
effort on the problem of drug trafficking. Furthermore, with high-ranking officials involved in
the scheme, it is highly questionable whether Maduro will move against the members of his own
party. But it is precisely this corruption that is harming Maduro’s government; if
left unchecked, it puts Venezuela at risk of political and economic instability and
harms the entire region’s security.
Instability
Coup = Instability
Plots to assassinate Maduro spark unrest
Venezuela Analysis, 7/25, (Staff, ““Overwhelming” Evidence of Plot to Assassinate
Venezuela's Maduro UPDATED”, 7/25/2013, https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9880)//LOH
Head of Venezuela's National Assembly Diosdado Cabello
has stated that he will make public “hard evidence
of assassination attempts” targeting himself and President Nicolas Maduro “in due course”. “We
know who they are, what they are, what they want, and we will find them,” Cabello told legislators during
a special session of the assembly in Zulia state on Wednesday. The alleged plot was first revealed by Maduro
during a street government in Monagas state the day before, when he said that “fascist” groups
operating in Venezuela “have crazy plans”. “I have appointed Diosdado Cabello as political head of the PSUV to find
the truth of how they have prepared for attacks against me for months,” Maduro said. Maduro stated that if he or Cabello were
targeted for assassination, “the wrath of god and the people would be unstoppable” adding that the political opposition would be
crippled. “I'm not here to be afraid of anything or anyone,” he said. However, yesterday opposition leader Henrique
Capriles stated on his internet show at Capriles.tv that “the worst thing that can happen to
Venezuela is a coup”. “Here the majority of Venezuelans want a peaceful and democratic
change,” he stated, before accusing the government of “fascism”. He also accused Venezuelan authorities of “retaliating” against
the Chilean airline LAN. During his recent visit to Chile and Peru, Capriles reportedly flew with the airline. The Maduro government
has been critical of Capriles' regular international trips. Foreign minister Elias Jaua recently accused Capriles of neglecting his
governorship of Miranda state. Nonetheless, today during a press conference Capriles indicated that he will spend more time abroad
denouncing “the reality of the country”. He hinted that his next destinations could include Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador. During the
conference, Capriles reiterated claims that the government committed electoral fraud in April, before urging supporters to vote in
December's municipal elections. This week, Capriles has also stated that the MUD will “continue to organise society in
neighbourhoods, towns and cities, to consolidate an overwhelming majority in the December elections”. On the other hand, the head
of Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) Leopoldo Lopez stated that “we are not going to wait six years to be given change”. “There cannot
be peace... when there is injustice,” Lopez stated, before urging supporters to restart street protests against the government. VP is
part of the MUD coalition. Supporters of the opposition held protests across the country following the 14 April elections, after
Capriles disputed the results. In some parts of the country, authorities reported that opposition protests turned violent. In the days
that followed the election, Venezuelanalysis observed some opposition protesters and pro-government counter-protesters clash in
the streets of Merida. In April, Venezuela's attorney general Luisa Ortega Díaz, stated that the violence claimed nine lives and dozens
of injuries nationwide. Since then, the Maduro administration has accused Capriles of inciting the violence.
“We cannot turn the page of 14A [the 14 April presidential elections] when we said that the elections were stolen. This government
does not enjoy majority support of Venezuelans,” Lopez insisted this week. The latest poll from private firm Hinterlaces indicates
that support for the opposition has fallen to 31%, while the PSUV now has the backing of 48% of the population. The results of
another poll by International Consulting Services (ICS) earlier this month indicated that 55.9% of Venezuelans approve of Maduro's
presidency. Cabello
responded to Lopez's statements on Wednesday, urging the opposition to
not provoke violence. UPDATE: In a statement aired by state broadcaster VTV on Thursday, Cabello alleged
that some members of the opposition were collaborating with right-wing Venezuelans living in
the US . “We want peace for this country. The only guarantee of peace we have now is
the Chavista Revolution ,” he stated.
Political groups vie for legitimacy in Venezuela causing political
unrest throughout Latin America, stabilizing Venezuela is key to the
region
Venezuela Analysis,7 /22, (SASCHA BERCOVITCH, editor at the Harvard Crimson and
majors in Latin American History from Harvard University, currently lives at the PROUT
Institute in Caracas, where he is conducting research on the historical narrative advanced by
Hugo Chávez and its relation to chavista state formation, “Venezuelan Opposition Leader
Capriles Maintains Campaign to not Recognize Election Results”, 7/22/2013,
http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9873)//LOH
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles returned to Venezuela yesterday after tours to Chile and
Peru, where he attempted to increase support for his claim that there was fraud in the April 14
presidential elections. Though virtually all countries in the western hemisphere, aside from
the United States , have recognized the election results, Capriles said he hoped the visits
would allow the “international community [to know] the truth about what’s happening in
Venezuela." The opposition boycotted a full audit carried out in May by Venezuela’s National
Electoral Council (CNE) after complaining that it would not include the voting record books,
which contain manually-entered fingerprints and signatures. In Chile, Capriles met with
senators from several political parties, including the Christian Democratic Party and Socialist
Party; former Presidents Eduardo Frei and Patricio Aylwin, the first democratically elected
president following the country’s 17-year dictatorship under General Augusto Pinochet; and
current conservative President Sebastian Piñera. As opposed to Colombian President Juan
Manuel Santos, who received Capriles in Colombia’s presidential palace, Piñera had dinner with
Capriles at the residence of Senator Jovino Novoa, technically making the meeting unofficial in
nature. A founder of the rightwing party Independent Democratic Union (UDI), Novoa served as
subsecretary general during Pinochet’s dictatorship. “We're going to get together to talk honestly
and openly about Chile, Venezuela, Latin America, and the world,” Piñera said before the
dinner. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, a Socialist Party member considered the
favorite to win the country’s November presidential elections, declined to meet with Capriles
after citing difficulties in her schedule. However, she did meet on Friday with Leopoldo Lopez,
director of the Venezuelan opposition party Voluntad Popular, in a forum of Socialist
International. After leaving Chile on Friday, Capriles continued to Lima, Peru, where he spoke
with various civilian groups and politicians, among them former Peruvian president Alan
Garcia. Garcia, whose heterodox economic reforms led to severe hyperinflation while he served
as president in the late 1980s, was elected for a second term from 2005-2011. In a press
conference following his meeting with Capriles, he declared the opposition leader “the elected
president of Venezuela.” “Democracy is a long process of patience, but you will triumph because
the current government that has the instruments of power of Venezuela in its hands will
condemn itself to economic isolation using a model of government and economy that belongs to
the nineteenth century, with extreme state-ism and absurd and exaggerated assistentialism,” he
said to Capriles. Current Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, elected following Garcia as the
candidate of the leftwing alliance Peru Wins, traveled to Puno state for a meeting on Saturday
and did not meet with Capriles. Humala serves as the current President of the Union of South
American Nations (UNASUR), which accepted the April 14 election results and the subsequent
audit carried out by Venezuela’s CNE. In a press conference on Saturday from Lima, Capriles
lamented that he would not be able to speak with Humala. “I don't intend to decide the agenda
of President Humala, but we hope for a response [to Capriles’ request for a meeting], not as
President of Peru, but as the brother countries that we are. We are in solidarity with your
struggles, and only ask that you be in solidarity with ours,” he said. He added, “We don't claim
that the Peruvians, nor the Chileans, nor the Brazilians, nor the Colombians, will resolve our
problems. Venezuelans are going to resolve Venezuela's problems. But Venezuela is a case study
and it's important that these countries see what is happening in our nation.” In both countries,
Capriles’ visits were marked by protests from several dozens of citizens, who displayed signs
calling him a “ fascist ,” “ coup-mongerer ,” and “ terrorist.” Speaking on a radio show,
Chilean Communist Party director Juan Andres Lagos drew comparisons between Capriles’
international visits and the US-supported destabilization of Chilean President Salvador Allende,
a democratically elected socialist overthrown by Pinochet in 1973. “From the social movements
and political forces opposed to the rightwing government [of Piñera], there is a strong rejection
and criticism of the visit, as it is considered that this man [Capriles] won't recognize the
legitimacy of the results of a government democratically elected by a people, that of Nicolas
Maduro. Capriles is installing a very complex situation that is stimulated by the United States,
and what it looks for is undemocratic destabilization,” Lagos said. In Venezuela, Government
Protests Capriles’ Absence As Capriles’ tour continued, government officials criticized his
absence from Miranda state, where he serves as governor. From an agricultural event of the
Francisco de Miranda Development Corporation of the Tuy River Basin, Foreign Minister and
Corporation President Elias Jaua, who lost to Capriles in Miranda’s gubernatorial race last
December, expressed frustration at the governor’s “political impunity.” “There is a people here.
Three million Mirandeans deserve the respect of the man who claims to be their governor, and
the respect is shown by working on the street, not conspiring in Chile with a far right who has
been the most murderous in the continent against their own country,” he said. The comments
come at the helm of a Hinterlaces poll released earlier today which showed a drop from 50% to
31% of those with a favorable opinion toward the opposition, and a climb from 39% to 56% of
those with an unfavorable opinion. 48% of respondents expressed a favorable opinion toward
the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). A July 8 poll released by the same
firm predicted that if the country’s Dec. 8 municipal elections were held that day, the victory
would go to the opposition.
Counternarcotics
Instability increases drug trafficking and prevents effective US
engagement
Duddy, 12 – (Patrick D., visiting Senior Lecturer at the Council of Foreign Relations, Duke University, “Political Unrest in
Venezuela,” CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16, September 2012, http://www.cfr.org/venezuela/political-unrestvenezuela/p28936)//HO
Counternarcotics: Venezuela does not cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics, except
at
the most minimal level. Drug trafficking has, consequently, surged. A number of Venezuelan military officers,
including the current minister of defense, have been plausibly accused by the U.S. Treasury of cooperating
with the Colombian insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and facilitating drug
shipments through Venezuela, especially from Apure State. Venezuelan recalcitrance in counternarcotics
clearly undermines other regional efforts to combat the drug trade. Even low levels of violence
would create new opportunities for the FARC and other drug traffickers to retrench and extend
their reach.
Laundry list
Venezuelan instability collapses their democracy, kills US-Latin
America relations, increases narco-trafficking, and hurts the US
economy
Duddy, 12 – (Patrick D., visiting Senior Lecturer at the Council of Foreign Relations, Duke University, “Political Unrest in
Venezuela,” CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 16, September 2012, http://www.cfr.org/venezuela/political-unrestvenezuela/p28936)//HO
Political instability and violence in Venezuela would damage U.S. efforts to promote democracy,
increase regional cooperation, combat narcotics, and protect its economic interests in the
region.¶ Democracy Promotion: The United States has worked for decades to promote democracy in
the Western Hemisphere. In recent years, Chavez has become increasingly authoritarian, undermining important political
institutions, giving more powers to the presidency, and weakening both civil society and the independent media. The United
States should view a suspension or further deterioration in the quality of Venezuela's democracy
as a setback for U.S. policy and for the hemisphere. The emergence of a military junta or a
compromised Chavez regime would also likely increase Iranian and Cuban influence in
Venezuela. It already has a close relationship with Iran from which it reportedly receives advanced weapon
systems and other assistance. Cuba sends thousands of teachers and technical, medical, and security
advisers in exchange for an estimated ninety to one hundred thousand barrels of oil per day.¶
Regional Cooperation: The United States has an interest in nurturing regional cooperation particularly
under the auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS), of which it is a core member. While often disappointing to both
the United States and Latin America, the OAS provides the only regional forum in which all of the countries with democratically
elected governments participate. A failure by the OAS to play an effective role in Venezuela if it appears
democracy is at risk would further undermine support for the organization both in the region and in the United
States. How the United States manages its relations with Venezuela if violence does break out
would likely affect U.S. relations with others in the hemisphere, especially Brazil, which has
cordial relations with Chavez and reacts badly to perceived U.S. efforts to dictate to Latin
America. A repetition of the acrimony that characterized the hemisphere's efforts to resolve the Honduras crisis of
2009 would be corrosive to U.S. relations with the region. ¶ Counternarcotics: Venezuela does not
cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics, except at the most minimal level. Drug
trafficking has, consequently, surged. A number of Venezuelan military officers, including the current minister of
defense, have been plausibly accused by the U.S. Treasury of cooperating with the Colombian
insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and facilitating drug shipments through
Venezuela, especially from Apure State. Venezuelan recalcitrance in counternarcotics clearly
undermines other regional efforts to combat the drug trade. Even low levels of violence would
create new opportunities for the FARC and other drug traffickers to retrench and extend their
reach.¶ Economic Interests: A significant number of U.S. companies have operations in Venezuela; it
remains an important market for U.S. goods and some services, especially oil services. Many of these companies could
be at risk if violent internal conflict broke out. Venezuela is consistently among the five largest foreign suppliers of
oil to the United States. The United States is Venezuela's largest market, buying up to nine hundred thousand barrels of oil daily, up
to 45 percent of Venezuela's total oil exports. Around six hundred thousand barrels of Venezuelan crude per day are refined at
CITGO facilities in the United States. Although a cut off of Venezuelan oil to the United States is theoretically possible, it is unlikely
given Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. market.¶ The United States is now less vulnerable to a cut off of supply from Venezuela as
U.S. domestic production has risen and imports from elsewhere could relatively quickly replace Venezuelan oil. Venezuela's
economy, on the other hand, has become more dependent on petroleum. Although production has stagnated since 2003, oil
accounts for over 95 percent of Venezuela's export earnings, and export revenue pays for nearly 50 percent of the government's
budget. Thus, although Venezuela is vulnerable to pressure via its dependence on its oil exports
generally and the U.S. market and refineries specifically, global
markets would likely react negatively to either
an interruption of Venezuelan production or a crisis in U.S.-Venezuelan relations that threatens
the bilateral trade in oil.
Maduro
Venezuelan regime instability collapses their oil market and economy
Ladislaw and Verrastro, 13 – (Sarah O. Ladislaw is co-director and senior fellow with the Energy and
National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Frank Verrastro is
senior vice president and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS; “Post-Chavez Outlook for Venezuelan Oil
Production,” 6 March 2013, http://csis.org/publication/post-chavez-outlook-venezuelan-oil-production)//HO
The winds of change are once again blowing in Venezuela. The recent announcement of Hugo Chavez’s passing has
opened up a host of questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and the potential impact
this leadership transition could have on Venezuelan oil production and global oil markets.¶
Venezuela is one of the largest oil and natural gas resource holders in the world. It is among the world’s largest oil producers (13th)
and exporters (10th) and has historically been one of the United States’ largest sources of oil imports (4th behind Canada, Saudi
Arabia and Mexico). Ever since the failed coup and the subsequent strike that brought about a short collapse in oil production in
2002, followed by nationalization of the oil sector, onlookers have been waiting for indications that the
regime’s approach to energy production would either fail once and for all or that some political
change would bring about reform and rejuvenation of the energy sector. A political transition in Venezuela
is now upon us but how it evolves could mean a lot for the energy sector and global energy
markets.¶ Despite its enormous oil resources, Venezuela's oil production (regardless of whose figures you
use) has long been in steady decline. In 2011 liquids production was 2.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) , down a
million barrels per day since 1999. Some of this is reflects the changing cost and economics of Venezuelan oil production but field
decline is significant and expertise and reinvestment are questionable and looking harder to come by. The internal technical and
managerial capabilities of state run oil and gas company PDVSA have deteriorated since the 2002 strike and aftermath. Increasingly,
PDVSA relies on contractors, as well as other private company partners, to keep the fields in production but reports state that
contractors have not been paid in months and that the political uncertainty in the country has even driven routine decision making
to a halt.¶ The sustained political uncertainty has also slowed investment; Russian and
Indian companies were planning to invest in Venezuela's oil fields but so far have withheld
incremental new money. China has not announced a new line of credit or extensions on its
development-linked financing since last April.¶ At the same time that production is dropping, highly
subsidized domestic consumption of oil is increasing while revenue from exports
is also declining. The United States remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports at 950,000 barrels per day in
2011, roughly 40 percent, plus another 185,000 barrels per day from the Caribbean that was Venezuelan sourced but those volumes
area down as U.S. demand has declined and other crudes have become available. Venezuela's next largest export destinations are the
Caribbean (31 percent) and then China (around 10 percent) . Venezuela sells to many of its Caribbean neighbors at below market
rates due to extremely preferential financing relationships, including additional heavy subsidies for Cuban exports. All of this
culminates in an outlook for continued decline in oil production and a worsening economic
outlook for Venezuela during a politically difficult time.¶ However, conventional wisdom argues that
maintaining oil production is in the interest of any regime. Revenue from oil production is such
a large part of Venezuela’s government balance sheet that no leadership could survive for long
without a sustained cash flow that oil exports bring. The converse of this argument is that revenues generated by
the energy sector are such an important source of power and influence in Venezuela that there is potential for infighting over control
of the sector. Moreover, the potential for strikes or instability among groups involved in the sector (some
of whom have not been paid) could have additional negative impacts on production.¶ While oil markets have so
far taken the news of Chavez’s demise in stride (many claim because the news was largely expected, others because the political
outcome is still so uncertain) an actual disruption in Venezuelan production could add
pressure to an already difficult market outlook. The last year has produced a number of supply
disruptions around the world from OPEC, the Middle East North Africa region, as well as non-OPEC sources. If the economic
outlook continues to improve and yield an increase global energy demand, if Iran sanctions remain in
place, and if Venezuelan production be compromised, then oil prices would experience much
more significant upside pressure from any new disruptions.
Maduro regime collapse halts the Venezuelan economy
Alesina et al., 96 – (ALBERTO ALESINA ¶ Department of Economics, Harvard University, National Bureau of
Economic Research, ¶ and Center for Economic Policy Research ¶ SULE OZLER ¶ Department of Economics, University of
California at Los Angeles; ¶ NOURIEL ROUBINI ¶ Stern School of Business, New York University; National Bureau of Economic
Research; ¶ and Center for Economic Policy Research ; ¶ PHILLIP SWAGEL ¶ Department of Economics, Northwestern University,
“Political Instability and Economic Growth ,” Journal of Economic Growth, 1:189-211, June 1996,
http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF00138862.pdf)//HO
Political instability reduces growth. This result is particularly strong for the case of uncon- ¶
stitutional executive changes such as coups,
as well for changes that significantly changes ¶ the ideological
composition of the executive. The effect of instability on growth is less ¶ strong for the regular and frequent executive
turnovers typical of industrial democracies. ¶ To some extent, and with some caveats, we also find that low growth increases the
likeli- ¶ hood of government turnover, particularly in the case of coups d'etat. However, we cannot ¶ find any difference
in the growth performance of democracies compared to nondemocra- ¶ cies. Finally the occurrence
of a government change increases the likelihood of subsequent ¶ changes, suggesting that
political instability tends to be persistent. ¶ We conclude by highlighting several possible extensions of this paper.
First, it seems ¶ worthwhile to continue in our effort to distinguish cases of major government changes ¶ from routine turnovers of
leadership that entail no significant changes in the ideological ¶ orientation of the government. This paper has been reasonably
successful on this point, ¶ in the sense that the results using our new variable for major changes shed new light on ¶ the results
obtained with the Jodice and Taylor (1983) variable. However, further research ¶ on this point is called for. For instance, one would
like to address the following issue: in ¶ certain cases (Turkey in the late 1970s is a good example), frequent coalition
reshuffling are ¶ indicators of an underlying political unrest (which, in the case of Turkey, culminated in a ¶
military coup in 1980). By disregarding such reshuffling, one underestimates the amount of ¶ political
instability. In other cases (Italy in the post-World War II period is a good example), ¶ minor coalition reshuffling do not imply
any significant amount of real political instability. ¶ Second, one might try to classify the ideological direction of government changes
and test 206 ¶ for the effects of different governments' ideology on economic growth. Such a classification ¶ on a left and right scale is
reasonably easy for a subset of countries (for instance, OECD ¶ democracies) but much more problematic for other countries where
religious, tribal, or ¶ regional conflicts dominate the polity. ¶ Third, one may want to shed some more light on the channel
linking political instability ¶ to growth. For instance, Alesina and Perotti (1996) suggest that the link goes
through the ¶ effect of instability on investment. However, they use a different measure of instability. ¶ Exploring
the linking channel and comparing our measure of political instability with others ¶ is a fruitful research objective.
Oil
Instability causes oil industry collapse and price spikes
AP, 13 – (Citing Sarah Ladislaw, co-director of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for International and
Strategic Studies, “Chavez death may lead to higher Venezuelan oil output,” 6 March 2013,
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/03/06/business-chavez-oil.html)//HO
The world oil market's response to Chavez's death was muted — oil rose slightly in electronic trading in New
York to $91.05 per barrel. That's 8 times the price of a barrel when Chavez took office 14 years ago.¶ Analysts
say
Venezuelan production will likely fall further in the short term because PDVSA executives may
lack clear instructions from a government in transition about how to proceed. But Venezuelan oil
supply has been declining for so long and oil markets are well supplied that traders are not
concerned that further erosion in Venezuelan supply will disrupt markets.¶ That could change, however, if instability
erupts as new leaders jostle for power and new elections are held, according to Sarah Ladislaw, co-director
of the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies. Dramatic unrest could
lead to a sharp drop in exports and higher oil prices.
Squo oil policies key to keep Maduro in power – alternative is
democratic collapse
Kott, 12 – (Adam, Associate in Business Consulting - Trade and Risk Management at Sapient Global Markets, Founder and
President at Premier Coaching LLC, also citing Thad Dunning, author of Crude Democracy, “Assessing Whether Oil Dependency in
Venezuela Contributes to National Instability,” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol. 5, No. 3, Fall 2012,
http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss)//HO
While the concept of ownership structures may be the most predominant ¶ counter-argument to the classical resource curse theory,
it is not the only ¶ one. Another school of thought posits that resource revenues can actually ¶ promote
democracy. Thad Dunning argues that resource rents "reduce ¶ the extent to which democratic
majorities redistribute private income or ¶ wealth away from the rich elites through taxation,
land reform, or other ¶ measures."24 Thus, high resource prices allow states to redistribute rents ¶
throughout society. This takes pressure off of the nation's elite to act as the "load-bearers" for
national revenue and acts as a disincentive to stage ¶ a coup against the government. Dunning explores
Venezuela's relationship with oil in Crude Democracy. In this work he notes a positive relationship
between oil rents and democratic stability in the South American ¶ nation, pointing to a "degree of class
'compromise' and 'consensus' that ¶ was highly unusual in Latin American countries during this
period."25 Oil ¶ rents allowed the State to increase spending on education and health by ¶ twenty
and five times respectively, all without placing a heavy tax burden ¶ on the country's elite.
Aff
Uniqueness
Maduro Unsustainable
Laundry list of reasons why Maduro’s regime is unsustainable
Alexander, 13 – (Harriet, “After An Incredibly Close Election, New Venezuelan President's Dream May Become A
Nightmare,” The Telegraph, 15 April 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-election-why-nicolas-maduros-dreammay-become-a-nightmare-2013-4)//HO
But the dream of victory could yet become a nightmare for the children of Chavez, Venezuela's charismatic ruler who dominated the
country from 1999 until his death last month. Far from leaving a stable, peaceful nation for his followers, Chavez's legacy is
that of a deeply divided and rudderless country.¶ Mr Maduro, 50, won the election by the slimmest
of margins, gaining 50.7 per cent of the vote. His challenger Henrique Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of
Miranda state, won 49.1 per cent – a difference of just 235,000 votes in this country of 29 million.¶ Mr
Capriles refused to recognise the result and said his team had a list of 3,000 voting
irregularities, ranging from gunshots being fired at polling stations to the illegal reopening of
voting centres after they had officially closed.¶ "I didn't fight against a candidate today, but against the whole abuse
of power," he said, demanding a recount.¶ "Mr Maduro, the loser was you ... This system is collapsing, it's like a castle of
sand – touch it and it falls."¶ Mr Maduro said he would accept a full recount, even as he insisted his victory was clean and dedicated
it to Chavez. The election board said Maduro's win was "irreversible" and gave no indication of when it might carry out an audit.¶
"We've had a fair, legal and constitutional triumph," Mr Maduro told a victory rally. "To those who didn't vote for us, I call for
unity. We are going to work together for the security and economy of this country."¶ Yet creating that secure and
economically-successful country will be an immense challenge.¶ Whereas Hugo Chavez was a
former paratrooper who could count on the doggedly-loyal support of the army – they even rescued
him when Right-wing rivals staged an aborted coup in 2002 – Mr Maduro does not have that guarantee.¶ "I think
Maduro has an enormous problem, he doesn't understand the military world," said Rocío San Miguel,
head of Citizen Control, a Venezuela non-profit that tracks military issues. He told the Wall Street Journal : "Without Chávez,
who is going to sit on top of this military hierarchy that has co-opted public administration?"¶
Nearly half of Venezuela's 23 states have a former military officer as governor, while a quarter of the
cabinet is currently composed of members of the armed forces. The army also controls the ports – an influential role in a
country where currency controls have created shortages and a thriving black market.¶ "The president commanded the
country like a barracks," said retired army Gen. Raúl Salazar, who was Chavez's defence minister during his first year in
office in 1999, but eventually broke with him. Mr Maduro "will have to win over the military and be attentive
to them if he wants to stay in power."¶ Mr Maduro's main rival is Diosdado Cabello – a former
army officer with powerful friends in the military – and the dynamic between them is key to the
stability or otherwise of the government.¶ Many expected Mr Cabello, a colleague of Chavez from the military
academy who took part in Chavez's 1992 failed coup attempt, to be named as successor rather than the plodding Mr Maduro. Mr
Cabello, who is the head of the National Assembly, has pledged to respect Chavez's decision. But he is also known to
harbour his own strong political ambitions, and commented cryptically on Twitter that "these
results require deep self-criticism."¶ Another key challenge for the newly-elected president is the
economy. Inflation is rampant and the economy is slowing, hampered by Byzantine currency
controls and one of the world's worst crime rates. The country was ranked 165th out of 176 in
Transparency International's corruption index, and businesses have been scared off by the
Chavez regime's policy of nationalisations.¶ And yet despite the political, economic and social headaches, the result
could be seen as the best outcome for Venezuela.¶ The opposition has been enormously strengthened, with
Sunday's close-fought battle in stark contrast to Chavez's 11 per cent victory over Mr Capriles in October's election.¶ Mr Maduro
will also have realised that reliance on the ghost of Chavez will not be enough: he needs to actively improve the
life of Venezuelans nationwide, and try to reunite the riven country. The country still has the world's largest oil reserves,
and Chavez's memory still resonates just enough to keep his project alive.¶ But Venezuelans everywhere will be hoping that Mr
Maduro can now draw on more than dreamy visions of victory.
Pro-US
Venezuela will reach out to the US for assistance with oil –
rapprochement within six months
Metzker, 6/17 – (Jared, citing Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think
tank; also citing Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, “Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.Venezuela Relations,” 17 June 2013, http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuelarelations/)//HO
“The oil sector is in deep trouble in Venezuela – production is down and the economic situation
is deteriorating,” explained Shifter. “They know they need foreign investment to increase
production, and this is in part what has motivated Maduro to reach out.Ӧ If its economy
continues to falter, Venezuela may be further tempted to embrace the United States, which has
the largest, most sophisticated fossil fuel industry in the world. Kerry’s recent words suggest that
the administration of President Barack Obama would be waiting with open arms.¶ “Venezuela
cannot confront its economic crisis and the United States at the same time,” Diana Villiers
Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank, told IPS, “and
we are a pragmatic country which will deal with Maduro if it is in our interests.Ӧ Indeed,
Negroponte said she was “optimistic” about the possibility of rapprochement between the two
countries within the next six months. She notes a “troika” of issues on which the United States is
looking for Venezuelan cooperation: counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and assistance in
ridding Colombia of its FARC rebels.
Instability Inevitable
Instability now and it’s inevitable
Safouane, 13 – (Hamza, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs with dual MA degrees in Economics and
International Relations, “Venezuela News: Aftermath of Election Continues to Roil the Country,” January 2013,
http://www.policymic.com/articles/37527/venezuela-news-aftermath-of-election-continues-to-roil-the-country)//HO
The situation in Venezuela will likely remain unstable for the next months, if not years. Two days
ago, new Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro swore in his new cabinet while the opposition, lead by his contender
Henrique Capriles, keeps disputing his poll victory by calling for a vote recount. The country is
once more enmeshed in a deep political crisis and instability as thousands of anti-Maduro
protesters take the streets, leading to violence and deaths.¶ The opposition is bolstered by the
good result obtained by Capriles this April. Indeed, about 260,000 ballot papers separate Maduro from Capriles , that is
about a 1% point difference. This is a great setback for Maduro, especially if we consider that during the October 2012
presidential elections, the late Hugo Chavez won against Capriles with a 10-percentage points difference. Between the two elections,
Maduro lost more than 600,000 ballot papers!¶ Such evolution exhibits the considerable polarization of
Venezuelan society. Had the 2013 presidential elections taken place a week later, or today, we might have ended up with
Capriles' victory altogether. Maduro is no exception to the rule that succeeding charismatic leaders is
always a perilous enterprise and rarely a success.¶ Maduro faces two major difficulties that play into
the hands of Capriles and the opposition in general. First, with the steep decline of the votes in favor of the one
who considered himself as "the son of Chavez ," the Chavist faction is greatly weakened. Maduro
will most likely, if not already, face criticism from his own base who would blame him for the poor
results at the last elections. Second, the representativeness of the Venezuelan democracy has been
weakened since the ability of the country’s electoral institution to organize fair elections is being
questioned by the opposition.¶ This might, in fact, be the opportunity for Capriles to gain the upper hand. His campaign
was far better than that of Maduro, as he promised to strengthen national unity and that he would maintain Chavez's social
programs. The latter point was particularly reassuring for a large part of the society, which has seen its purchasing power going
down after the government devaluated the bolivar in February 2013 by about a third against the dollar. That devaluation increased
the price of imported basic food commodities.¶ As for Capriles, his refusal to acknowledge the results is more
tactical than political. First, he must dedicate all his efforts at maintaining his leadership in the opposition by championing
the anger towards President Maduro. This might be harder said than done, because the opposition is composed of a wide spectrum
ranging from the far left to the Republican right-wing parties. They therefore lack a common ideological denominator. Additionally,
he might be losing the grip on the opposition as violence is escalating. ¶ Yet, time seems to be on his side.
Capriles will probably dedicate all his efforts at keeping the opposition assembled against Maduro until the legislative elections in
2015. Besides, in three years, he can resort to the recall referendum, as provided by the Venezuelan constitution, to determine
whether Maduro should be recalled from office.¶ Capriles is in a somewhat comfortable position, but one unknown remains: the role
of the army. If the climate of violence keeps spreading, chances are the army, who recently
acknowledged the victory of Maduro, could become an obstacle.
Laundry list of reasons why instability is inevitable now
IHS, 13 – (Global information indexer, “Election 2013: Venezuelan opposition demands vote recount after narrow defeat,”
15 April 2013, http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065978107)//HO
The unpredictable narrow margin of Maduro's victory highlights the volatility of the political
scene in Venezuela. A recount of 100% of the votes is expected to take place, with the CNE thought to be
confirming the process in the coming hours. Maduro has agreed to a recount of the votes but given the narrow margin of his victory
it is unclear yet if the results of such a process could turn in Capriles' advantage. This is key, particularly as the votes of more than
100,000 Venezuelans living abroad – which are expected to favour Capriles – will have to be counted. It is important to highlight,
however, that the government will exercise significant control over the whole recount process; the
most likely scenario is that the CNE will ratify Maduro as president and the gap between the two candidates will increase in
Maduro’s favour. Given the PSUV's control of the electoral authority, the judiciary, and even the armed forces – which play a key
role in the process – it is going to be an uphill task for the opposition to force the CNE to revise the
preliminary results.¶ The political outlook in the coming days will be defined by the results of the
recount process, and how the government and CNE handle alleged electoral irregularities. The
armed forces are expected to play a key role behind the scenes, but their independence is in doubt
given the strong influence that Chávez and the PSUV exercised over some of its more powerful
factions and high command. However, the armed forces remain a complex and heterogenic institution
and their behaviour in the event of a political and institutional crisis could be hard to predict ,
especially if political stability is compromised. Venezuelan democratic institutions are weak and the armed
forces are the only institution with the power to put pressure on the electoral authority, the
judiciary, and the national assembly, to obtain certain outcomes and to abide by the law. The difficult task for the armed forces will
be to reach a consensus. This task will be made more difficult if the results of the recount process favour the opposition – even if the
CNE fails to acknowledge this – or if there is enough evidence of electoral irregularities which could affect the final result.¶
Possible confrontations between pro-government and opposition supporters and unrest, including
roadblocks in urban centres, are
likely to take place in the coming days. The opposition will look to mobilise
its supporters in the streets to demand the vote recount and make sure that the CNE looks into alleged electoral
irregularities – particularly this week as the opposition will also seek to postpone Maduro's swearing-in ceremony, due to take place
on Friday (19 April). As such, in principle, protests are not expected to compromise overall political stability in Venezuela.
Although protests are expected to be peaceful, violence could escalate if the government and the
CNE, or
even security forces, fail to manage the vote recount in a democratic and satisfactory way
acts of unrest are more likely if Capriles fails to
recognise the results of the recount process. Political stability is guaranteed by the armed forces, which will prevent
bloodshed between Venezuelans, and if unrest escalates direct or indirect military intervention is likely. If Capriles refuses to
recognise Maduro's victory, the new president's legitimacy will be questioned and the shadow of
a possible electoral fraud would add to the economic and social challenges that he will have to
face in the next year, including dealing with increasing inflation, crime and corruption, and shortages of food, medicines, basic
goods, and even electricity and water. Political stability is not guaranteed in Venezuela after Maduro's
election and possible ratification by the CNE, especially if Maduro fails to keep the different factions of the PSUV
for the different political actors on the ground.¶ Heightened
united. Chávez's death was a game changer for Venezuela and has led to a gradual process of reorganisation of the political order.
The deterioration of Maduro's leadership and the fragmentation of the PSUV are likely to take
place after his first year in office if he fails to deal efficiently with the economic and social issues
facing Venezuelans.
Link Turn
Credibility Turn
Maduro leadership causes Latin American democratic backsliding
Ventrell, ’13 [Patrick, Acting Deputy State Department Spokesman, CQ Transcriptions, May
1, lexis]
QUESTION: (inaudible) also on the region, what is your reaction to the beating of the
opposition leaders in the (inaudible) national assembly (inaudible) decision of the (inaudible)
assembly to deny them the right to speak and to recognize president Madura (ph)? And how will
it effect your evaluation on whether or not to recognize Madura's (ph) government, which is also
(inaudible) recount that you (inaudible) requested?
VENTRELL: Thanks for the question.
Let me state clearly, violence has no place in representative democratic system, and is
particularly inappropriate within the national assembly.
We're deeply concerned by the violence that occurred, express our solidarity with those injured
and again urge all parties to refrain from acts and attitudes which contribute to physical
confrontations. And as I just said this earlier this week from this podium, but the rights of all
Venezuelans including their elective representatives to assemble, freely and (sic) speak their
minds and convictions are essential components of democracy as defined and agreed to be
consensus in the Western hemisphere and the Inter-American Democratic Charter.
So, we've been pretty clear about this going back and -- and I reiterated again today. In terms of
the vote recount issue, we've said that it's the proven essential approach to do a prompt
transparent recount in an inclusive manner to look at the vote count to help build confidence
among the Venezuelan people. And our understanding is that some of that is still going on, but
it's working its way through the Venezuelan system.
That causes proliferation and nuclear war
Schulz 2K (Donald E., Chairman of Political Science - Cleveland State University, former
Research Professor - SSI of the U.S. Army War College, March, The United States and Latin
America: Shaping An Elusive Future,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/Pubs/display.cfm?pubID=31)
A second major interest is the promotion of democracy. At first glance, this might appear to be a peripheral
concern. For much of its history, the United States was perfectly comfortable with authoritarian regimes in Latin America,
so long as they did not threaten higher priority interests like regional security or U.S. economic holdings. But that is no
longer the case. U.S. values have changed; democracy has been elevated to the status of an “important” interest. In part,
this has been because American leaders have gained a greater appreciation of the role of legitimacy as a source of
political stability. Governments that are popularly elected and respect human rights and the rule of law
are less dangerous to both their citizens and their neighbors. Nations which are substantively
democratic tend not to go to war with one another. They are also less vulnerable to the threat of internal war
provoked, in part, by state violence and illegality and a lack of governmental legitimacy. 6 In short, democracy and
economic integration are not simply value preferences, but are increasingly bound up with
hemispheric security. To take just one example: The restoration of democracy in Brazil and Argentina
and their increasingly strong and profitable relationship in Mercosur have contributed in no small degree to
their decisions to forsake the development of nuclear weapons. Perceptions of threat have
declined, and perceptions of the benefits of cooperation have grown, and this has permitted
progress on a range of security issues from border disputes, to peacekeeping, environmental protection,
counternarcotics, and the combat of organized crime. Argentina has also developed a strong bilateral defense relationship
with the United States, and is now considered a non-NATO ally.
No risk of Venezuelan coup
FOX 6/2 (Fox News Latino, 6/2/2013, “Venezuela's Defense Minister Would Never Support A
Coup To Unseat Maduro”, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/06/02/venezueladefense-minister-would-never-support-coup-to-unseat-president-nicolas/ | JJ)
Venezuela's defense minister would never entertain the idea of supporting a military coup to
unseat President Nicolas Maduro. Adm. Diego Molero also said that Venezuela's military takes
advice from Cubans but that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's statements on Sunday
during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's recent release of a
recording allegedly showing an influential pro-government figure discussing coup rumors with a
Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that seemed to highlight Cuban influence in the oil-rich nation. In the
lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV talk show Mario Silva discusses a power struggle between Maduro and
National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom he accuses of conspiring against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling"
in the military. The speaker on the recording suggests Cabello's allies are behind false rumors that Molero
might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's leaders and is said by analysts to
have less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was pulled from state TV after the
conversation's release. Maduro squandered a double-digit lead in less than two weeks, but defeated challenger Henrique Capriles by
a razor-thin margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose
Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk show if "democratic and institutional stability is guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt
were possible. Molero turned his head, looked straight into the camera and responded: "It's impossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of
the constitutional concept that Maduro remain in the government until the people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for
emphasis: "It's impossible that such an idea would go through my head." Capriles has repeatedly complained about
what he calls Cuba's growing influence over Venezuela's government and military under
Maduro, whose first postelection foreign trip was to Havana. Cabello has denied plotting against
Maduro and called for unity among the political heirs of Chavez, who are struggling with widespread discontent over worsening
food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil production. Molero did not provide details regarding
Cuban military advice, saying only that Venezuela welcomes it, but makes its own decisions.
Maduro has defended his government's close ties with Cuba, whose economy depends on Venezuelan oil
shipments worth $3.2 billion a year that account for about half its consumption. Cuba partially pays for the oil in a barter deal,
sending medics, sports trainers, political advisers and other professionals to Venezuela. The remainder is covered by 25-year, 1
percent interest loans.
No Impact
No Coup
No risk of coup – the defense minister would never let it happen
Toothaker 6/2 (Christopher Toothaker, staff writer at the Associated Press, 6/2/2013,
“Venezuela defense chief rules out coup”,
http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/pdf/Archive/Soc/soc.culture.venezuela/201306/msg00019.pdf | JJ)
CARACAS, Venezuela −− Venezuela's
defense minister said Sunday that he would never support a
military coup to unseat President Nicolas Maduro and has never even entertained the idea. Adm.
Diego Molero also said that Venezuela's military takes advice from Cubans but that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's
statements during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's
recent release of a recording allegedly showing an influential pro−government figure discussing
coup rumors with a Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that seemed to highlight Cuban
influence in the oil−rich nation. In the lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV talk show Mario Silva
discusses a power struggle between Maduro and National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom he accuses of conspiring
against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling" in the military. The speaker on the recording suggests Cabello's allies are
behind false rumors that Molero might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's leaders and is said by analysts to have
less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was pulled from state TV after the conversation's
release. Maduro squandered a double−digit lead in less than two weeks, but defeated challenger Henrique Capriles by a razor−thin
margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose
Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk show if "democratic and institutional stability is
guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt were possible. Molero turned his head, looked
straight into the camera and responded: "It's impossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of the constitutional concept
that Maduro remain in the government until the people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for emphasis: "It's impossible
that such an idea would go through my head." Capriles has repeatedly complained about what he calls Cuba's
growing influence over Venezuela's government and military under Maduro, whose first postelection foreign trip was to Havana.
Cabello has denied plotting against Maduro and called for unity among the political heirs of
Chavez, who are struggling with widespread discontent over worsening food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil
production. Molero did not provide details regarding Cuban military advice, saying only that
Venezuela welcomes it, but makes its own decisions. Maduro has defended his government's close ties with
Cuba, whose economy depends on Venezuelan oil shipments worth $3.2 billion a year that account for about half its consumption.
Cuba partially pays for the oil in a barter deal, sending medics, sports trainers, political advisers and other professionals to
Venezuela. The remainder is covered by 25−year, 1 percent interest loans.
No coup – a repeat of Chile won’t happen
Ciccariello-Maher 7/10 (George Ciccariello-Maher, author of “We Created Chavez: A
People’s History of the Venezuelan Revolution”, 7/10/2013, in an interview by Samuel Grove,
http://lab.org.uk/venezuela-people%E2%80%99s-power | JJ)
SG: We are approaching the 40th anniversary of the coup in Chile. How
was the Venezuelan left able to defend the
Chavez government in the way the Chilean left failed to defend Allende government, and will it
continue to be able to defend itself under Maduro? While we should be wary of comparing the two
cases lightly, given the fundamental differences (especially in the military) between Venezuela and
Chile, we nevertheless must ask the Chile question. Once we do, the strategic differences become clear. The Venezuelan
process is not a repeat of the Chilean attempt to build "electoral socialism" or to take the
"peaceful road" to socialism. It is a process that emerges out of the heated crucible of mass street rebellion and rioting
alongside failed coups, and it was these explicitly non-electoral moments that made possible what has come since. Once in
power, moreover, it was clear that the Bolivarian Revolution was not going to tie the hands of the
popular movements in the way that Allende often did. Informal popular militias are an important element of the
process, and the establishment of formal militias within the military can serve to counterbalance the generals. As the late general
Alberto Müller Rojas often argued: the "people in arms" is the best defence against right-wing coups.