Happy New Year! Below is the newest edition of the Region One Climate Change Science Update. FWS
employees can also find it and past issues on the Climate Change Sharepoint site.
Pacific Region Climate Change Science and Learning
Opportunities Digest
January, 2014 Issue
A monthly e-newsletter aimed at helping you stay connected to climate change science that is relevant and
integral to our conservation work. Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Please send
it our way. And many thanks to those who have provided material for this edition!
David Patte
Climate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon
(503) 231-6210
Quick Links (Abstracts and Weblinks are Below)
NASA iPad App shows Earth changing before your eyes
Implementing the President’s Climate Action Plan
British Columbia Forests in a Changing Climate
Climate Trends and Projections Available at County Scale
Tribal and Indigenous People
Tribal Climate Change Profiles
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network
Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response
Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine—Report to the Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Savvy bar-tailed godwit equipped for climate challenge
Climate Change, Marine Environments, and the U.S. Endangered Species Act
Choosing & Using Climate Change Scenarios for Ecological Impact Assmnts. & Conservation Decisions
Floodplain Rehabilitation as a Hedge against Hydroclimatic Uncertainty in a Migration Corridor of
Threatened Steelhead
Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species
Interactive Effects of Water Diversion and Climate Change for Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi
River Basin (Idaho)
Estimating Effects of Tidal Power Projects and Climate Change on Threatened and Endangered Marine
Species and Their Food Web
Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook
Salmon
Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate
Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species
Dietary plasticity in pikas as a strategy for atypical resource landscapes
Sea Star Wasting Syndrome on West Coast
The effects of elevated water temperature on native juvenile mussels: implications for climate change
NWF Releases Report on Impacts of Climate Change on Big Game
Forests and Climate Change (several articles)
Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology
 Climate-Aquatics Blog #51: Part 10, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Extinction; #51: Part 9,
Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Evolutionary responses
Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification/Sea Level Rise
National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast
Multidecadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958–2008
Coastal Resilience Network Releases New Suite of Interactive Tools
Related coral species differ in how they survive climate change effects
Deep-sea corals record dramatic long-term shift in Pacific Ocean ecosystem
Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise
Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise
The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean
Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change
Coral Reef Resilience
Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
Could weakening winds threaten Pacific Northwest's mountain water supply?
Solution to Cloud Riddle Reveals Hotter Future: Global Temps. to Rise at Least 4 Degrees C by 2100
LCC National Council Selections Announced
Responding to Climate Scenarios- New Handbook from NPS
Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Innovative Pilot in Canada leads the way
A new material for solar panels could make them cheaper, more efficient
Restore America’s Estuaries Submits First Greenhouse Gas Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass
Restoration to Verified Carbon Standard
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young
People, Future Generations and Nature
Climate and Weather Reports and Services (Multiple Entries)
DOI Climate Science Update
List Servers and FWS Tools (Multiple Entries)
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Click the image to find the app…
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Implementing the President’s Climate Action Plan
December 19, 2013, the Congressional Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change issued a 21-page white
paper: "Implementing the President's Climate Action Plan: US Department of the Interior. Actions the
Department of the Interior Should Take to Address Climate Change." Of the seven sections in the white
paper, two put particularly high emphasis on the USFWS:
o
"Advance Government-wide Adaptation Planning" (pp. 2, 13-15) The focus is on
the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy and the leading role the
Service needs to play in its implementation.
o
"Protect Habitat for Endangered and Threatened Species" (pp. 2, 15-17) The focus is
on climate change in relation to recovery plans, section 7 consultation, the section 9 "take"
prohibition, and "assisted migration" of species. (A side note: I wish we'd had an opportunity
to review and work with them on the entire section; it looks like they relied in part on a 2008
paper (by J. B. Ruhl, a college law professor) that I think is out of date and somewhat off the
mark on some key points related to the Endangered Species Act and climate change).
Also, the final section, "Encourage Timely Release of Related Climate Measures" (pp. 3, 19-20) calls for DOI
agencies to set "aggressive timelines for proposed changes to policies and regulations, especially those
that govern preservation of open spaces, habitat connectivity, and ecosystem integrity in the face of
climate change."
A copy of the Congressional report is attached and it is available online here.
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British Columbia Forests in a Changing Climate
The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for British Columbia's Managed Forests was recently
completed. The assessment, supporting the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
(FLRNO) and the Ministry of Environment (MoE), examined the impacts, exposure and sensitivity of
ecosystems and ecological processes to a changing climate.
A number of regional case studies were conducted to outline climate change, vulnerability and potential
adaptation actions to showcase vulnerabilities across BC. FLRNO and MoE are considering
recommendations and the Forest Stewardship Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation and other
related initiatives have begun addressing many of the recommended strategies and actions.
A summary of the report can be found here, and the full report can be read here
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Climate Trends and Projections Available at County Scale
For the first time, maps and summaries of historical and projected temperature and precipitation changes
for the 21st century for the continental U.S. are accessible at a county-by-county level on a website
<http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nex-dcp30.asp> developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in
collaboration with the College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
The maps and summaries are based on NASA downscaling of the 33 climate models used in the 5th
Climate Model Intercomparison Project and the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Assessment Report. The resulting NASA dataset <https://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/portal_home/published/NEX.html> is
on an 800-meter grid with national coverage.
The USGS leveraged this massive dataset and distilled the information into easily understood maps, 3page summaries and spreadsheet compatible data files for each state and county in the United States. A
similar implementation for the USGS nested hydrologic units will be available in the next month. To learn
more, please view the complete USGS release here <http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3745>
The maps and summaries are available here <http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nex-dcp30.asp>
Learn more about NCCWSC at https://nccwsc.usgs.gov and the CSCs at http://www.doi.gov/csc/index.cfm.
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Tribal
Tribal Climate Change Profiles: Tribes across the United States are leading the way with innovative efforts
to address climate change through adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Tribal Climate Change
Profiles are intended to be a pathway to increasing knowledge among tribal and non-tribal organizations
interested in learning about climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. This information is provided
by the Tribal Climate Change Project, a collaborative project between the University of Oregon and the
USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station.
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: Established in 2009, the Network fosters communication between
tribes, agencies, and other entities about climate change policies, programs, and research needs
pertaining to tribes and climate change. The Network meets via conference call on the fourth Wednesday
of each month. The Network provides regular input into ongoing research, resource development and
general efforts of the Tribal Climate Change Project. Participants in the Network have cited a critical need
for coordination and collaboration between agencies and organizations to meet the needs tribes have in
accessing climate change resources and information. To join the Network email list, email Kathy Lynn at
kathy@uoregon.edu.
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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles & Other
Publications
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 Sharepoint CC Species/Ecosystems Response Library]
Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine—Report to the Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife (pdf).
Kincaid’s lupine (Lupinus oreganus), a rare(ESA listed) legume found in prairies and oak savannas has been
relegated to small, isolated patches of habitat. The historic habitat of L. oreganus may continue to become
more inhospitable given that climate models predict temperature increases and decreased precipitation in
the Pacific Northwest. Researchers used an experimental common garden to test for interactions between
genotype and microclimate to identify management considerations which may be necessary for long-term
adaptation to climate change. Treatments included ambient (no treatment) and experimental
manipulations of the microclimate to simulate cooler (shading plots) and hotter (warming plots)
temperatures. After one year of growth, results suggest: (1) Seed source was found to significantly affect
height of Kincaid’s lupine in the common garden, (2) Both seed source and treatment (ambient, warming,
shading) were found to affect number of leaves of Kincaid’s lupine, though the interaction of these two
factors was not significant. Though some seed sources did show differences in number of leaves by
treatment, these effects were not consistent across all sources. (3) Survivorship of Kincaid’s lupine was
dependent upon seed source, but not by treatment. (4) Reproductive effort was highly variable between
seed source at the time of monitoring. (5) observed differences between seed sources in germination time
were found, where species from the southern end of the range germinated far earlier than the rest. (Gray,
E.C., S.T. Bois, and T.N. Kaye. 2013. Effects of climate change on Kincaid’s lupine. Institute for Applied
Ecology, Corvallis, Oregon. viii + 33 pp.)
Savvy bar-tailed godwit equipped for climate challenge (article summarizes Dec. AGU presentation by
David Douglas, USGS)
The Dec 2 edition of the journal Conservation Biology contains a Special Section: Incorporating Climate
Change into Risk Analyses under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No.
6, 1138–1146). Here is a link for the "table of contents" for the entire journal; scroll down it to see the
entire list of papers in the special section:
Climate Change, Marine Environments, and the U.S. Endangered Species Act: This overview briefly
describes climate change effects (ongoing and potential) on species and ecosystems, and reviews
consideration of climate change effects in relation to various aspects of the ESA (listing, critical habitat
designation, recovery planning, interagency consultation, incidental take permits) with a focus on marine
and estuarine systems. (Seney et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1138–1146)
Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation
Decisions: Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience
working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, guidelines are provided for
choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty
in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves
identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest;
determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well
processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering
observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time
horizon of the associated decision. (Snover et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1147–1157)
Floodplain Rehabilitation as a Hedge against Hydroclimatic Uncertainty in a Migration Corridor of
Threatened Steelhead: Researchers combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate
projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate
scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. ...Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not
enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to
migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk
from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical
downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts
into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts
that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively
predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem
rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. (Boughton & Pike, Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6,
1158–116)
Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species
Researchers developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system
to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which
population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed
because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for
many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties
precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased
reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some
methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new
approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), the authors rated
the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against
population status and trend information to evaluate each species’ extinction risk over the 21st century.
This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to
their estimated likelihood of extinction. Guidance on approaches is offered for future biological extinction
risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats.
(Brainard et al., Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1169–1178)
Interactive Effects of Water Diversion and Climate Change for Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi
River Basin (Idaho). This case study illustrates approaches for assessing likely effects of specific actions on
a species, including carrying capacity. From the abstract: "… we created a model relating 19 years of
juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer
temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival
for 15 diversion and climate-change scenarios. Projected survival was 42–58% lower when streamflows
were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate-change
scenarios...resulted in an additional 11–39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat
carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate-change scenarios.
…Climate-change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry climate model.
…this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular
species." (Walters et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1179–1189)
Estimating Effects of Tidal Power Projects and Climate Change on Threatened and Endangered Marine
Species and Their Food Web. This multi-species case study from the Puget Sound area illustrates use of
risk tables and other approaches for assessing effects on species, and includes consideration of predators,
prey, and food webs. From the abstract: “…We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined
effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change
posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on
predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species
from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal
turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal
power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To
simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate
environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production,
plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No
effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output,
but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses
exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in
ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of
their ecological community.” (Busch et al., Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1190–1200)
Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook
Salmon. A case study of an ESA section 7 consultation situation in Oregon, this illustrates, in part, ways of
working with the challenges of needing to review multiple small projects and cumulative effects. From the
abstract: “…We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. …On the
basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap.
Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km
upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from
predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life-history
strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are
prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our
approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in
concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation
of the actions’ long-term effects.” (Jorgensen et al., Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1201–1211)
Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate This
paper focuses on recovery planning and has broad applications to conservation planning in general. The
use of structured decision making (SDM) approaches is increasing, and many in the FWS have experience
using it and/or participating in SDM courses and sessions hosted by the National Conservation Training
Center. For others, it is new or untried, and in any case the applications of SDM continue to evolve so this
paper has relevance even to those familiar with SDM. From the paper: “… We highlight 4 problems
associated with conservation of endangered species: vague management objectives, incomplete
consideration of alternatives, lack of consideration of uncertainty in consequence estimates, and
avoidance of explicit trade-offs. These problems limit the effectiveness of management plans, increase the
time or resources required for making decisions, and foster controversies that can slow conservation
efforts. To demonstrate how SDM can facilitate endangered species conservation planning, for each
problem we describe a recent case study set against the backdrop of uncertainties associated with climate
change…. SDM approaches are particularly relevant to facilitating effective management in situations
characterized by high levels of uncertainty, disagreements among participants about the objectives
guiding actions, and a confusion between fact-based and value-based arguments.
…For many resource managers, development of decisionmaking skills may prove to be at least as
important for the effective management of threatened and endangered species as their training and skills
as scientists.…in light of climate change and other sources of uncertainty that often block progress toward
agreement on a management plan, the use of formal decision-aiding methods has helped realign and
refocus discussions among technical experts by identifying different objectives (e.g., for Atlantic salmon
recovery planning), developing new hypotheses for addressing recruitment failure (e.g., for upper
Columbia River white sturgeon), and by creating a framework for generating and evaluating new
management alternatives (e.g., Cultus Lake sockeye). In each case, discussions that had meandered for
several years were reorganized and provided with a structure that facilitated better communication
among participants and returned stakeholders’ and managers’ emphasis to focused discussions about the
pros and cons of alternative management actions. (Gregory et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6,
1212–1221)
Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic
Species. Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less
attention than terrestrial species. The authors gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking
to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge.
Three categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application
under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) are assessed: assessment of overall risk to a species; longterm recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are
available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly
characterized. Thus, it is recommended that scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions
develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing
conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. The authors recommend that
current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term
projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides
spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the
magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is
clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range
shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not
equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to
climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic
diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and
using adaptive management. (McClure et al. Conservation Biology, Volume 27, No. 6, 1222–1233)
-----End of Conservation Biology special edition abstracts------------------------------Dietary plasticity in pikas as a strategy for atypical resource landscapes: A new paper sheds light on a
pika population that is persisting in what (for this "high elevation"species) is a relatively warm climate
near sea level in the Columbia River Gorge. Here's an except from the abstract, with emphasis added for
the last sentence since it is applicable to far more than the pika:
"We hypothesized that utilizing unusual food resources contributes to pika persistence in this unusual
climate. Moss comprised more than 60% of the diet at 2 sites, more than observed for any mammalian
herbivore in the wild. Moss is available year-round in this habitat; thus, by specializing on moss, pikas do
not have to construct large food caches to survive winter. These results suggest a larger degree of
behavioral and dietary plasticity than previously assumed for this species. Understanding a species’
capacity to adapt its foraging strategies to new resource landscapes will be essential to assessing
its vulnerability to future climate change and to developing conservation plans." (J. Varner and M.D.
Dearing, Journal of Mammalogy, 95(1):000–000, 2014, DOI: 10.1644/13-MAMM-A-099.1)
Sea Star Wasting Syndrome on West Coast: As of Summer, 2013, there is evidence on the onset of
another Wasting event and one that is particularly troubling because of its spatial extent. MARINe
monitoring groups have documented Wasting in Pisaster ochraceus from Alaska through California. Two
common attributes for many of the sites are: (1) the period prior to Wasting was characterized by warm
water temperatures, and (2) the effects are dramatic. Sea star wasting disease is a general description of
a set of symptoms that are found in sea stars. Typically, lesions appear in the ectoderm followed by decay
of tissue surrounding the lesions, which leads to eventual fragmentation of the body and death. A deflated
appearance can precede other morphological signs of the disease. All of these symptoms are also
associated with ordinary attributes of unhealthy stars and can arise when an individual is stranded too
high in the intertidal zone (for example) and simply desiccates. “True” wasting disease will be present in
individuals that are found in suitable habitat, often in the midst of other individuals that might also be
affected. Learn more, track and document observation, see mapped data at the Pacific Rocky Intertidal
Monitoring website: http://www.eeb.ucsc.edu/pacificrockyintertidal/data-products/sea-starwasting/index.html
The effects of elevated water temperature on native juvenile mussels: implications for climate change
This report finds that climate change may cause further harm to already endangered or threatened
freshwater mussels in North America. The report, authored by Alissa Ganser, University of Wisconsin–La
Crosse, Teresa J. Newton, US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, and
Roger J. Haro, University of Wisconsin–La Crosse can be found here:
http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1899/12-132.1
NWF Releases Report on Impacts of Climate Change on Big Game (pdf): In mid-November, the National
Wildlife Federation released a report documenting impacts to big game wildlife due to changing climate
and outlining key steps needed to reduce those impacts. The report Nowhere to Run: Big Game Wildlife
in a Warming World discusses how wildfire, floods and extreme weather events like heat waves, drought
and heavy rain are becoming more frequent and more severe. These changes are impacting traditional
summer and winter ranges, changing movement patterns, increasing parasites and causing habitat
damage through natural disasters and invasive plants. “The recovery of big game species is one of
America’s wildlife conservation success stories, made possible in large part by sustained investment by
generations of sportsmen,” said Dr. Doug Inkley, senior scientist at the National Wildlife Federation. “But
today, a changing climate threatens to rewrite that success story.”
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Forests and Climate Change
The December issue of the The Climate CIRCulator features eight papers on Forests and climate change
including changing fire regimes in the West, insects, invasive plants and meadow invasion, and vegetation
phenology. (The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) and The Oregon Climate
Change Research Institute (OCCRI))
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Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint C.C. Water Resources Library]
Climate-Aquatics Blog #51: Part 10, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Extinction; #50: Part 9,
Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Evolutionary responses (Dan Isaak, USFS RMRS)
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Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification
[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint CC Coastal Library]
National assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest
coast: This assessment of the PNW incorporates shoreline change based on a comparison of historical
shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least
one of which is derived from (2002) lidar surveys. An increase in erosion hazards in much of Oregon may
be related to the effects of sea-level rise and increasing storm wave heights. Of importance, particularly in
the short term, is the alongshore variability in land uplift rates due to tectonics, which results in an
alongshore varying rate of relative sea level rise that appears to at least partially control the regional
variability in short-term shoreline change rates. Other climate related processes, such as the occurrence of
major El Niño events, also significantly affect the shoreline changes in the region. (Ruggiero, Peter,
Kratzmann, M.G., Himmelstoss, E.A., Reid, David, Allan, John, and Kaminsky, George, 2013, National
assessment of shoreline change—Historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast: U.S.
Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1007, 62 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121007)
Multidecadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958–2008: Altimeter data have significantly
improved our understanding of regional sea level variability and trends, but their relatively short records
do not allow either evaluation of the ocean state prior to 1993 or multidecadal low-frequency signals in
the ocean. Here we characterize and quantify the multidecadal regional sea level rise (rSLR) and related
ocean heat content in the Pacific from a non-Boussinesq ocean circulation model in comparison with data
sets from altimeters, two sea level reconstructions, and in situ ocean profiles from 1958 to 2008. We show
that the rSLR trends have undergone two shifts, during the mid-1970s and in the early 1990s, with an eastwest dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific. In each of these phases, rSLR accelerated on one side of the
Pacific, but decelerated on the other side. The multidecadal sea level shifts can be explained by the
dynamical (steric) upper-ocean responses to the surface wind forcing associated with the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), with negligible contributions from internal (depth-integrated) ocean mass changes.
Additional model experimentation further confirms that the Pacific wind stress trend over the recent two
decades has played an important role in strengthening the rSLR in the western Pacific while suppressing
the rSLR in the eastern Pacific. The climate-forced large-scale rSLR variability is likely to impose a longterm and uneven impact on coastal communities. (Jae-Hong Moon, Y. Tony Song, Peter D. Bromirski and
Arthur J. Miller, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Published Online : 18 DEC 2013, DOI :
10.1002/2013JC009297)
Coastal Resilience Network Releases New Suite of Interactive Tools: The Coastal Resilience Network
recently released Coastal Resilience 2.0, an interactive suite of tools that help users visualize risks to
coastal communities and habitats, and help decision makers reduce and mitigate the risks from storms
and other hazards like coastal erosion and flooding. This interactive suite of tools allows users to examine
storm surge, sea level rise, natural resources, and economic assets. It also allows users to develop risk
reduction and restoration solutions. The Coastal Resilience tools cover different regions including: a U.S.
national and global application, eight U.S. States (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, New
York, Connecticut, New Jersey), two specific U.S. locations (Puget Sound, WA, and Ventura County, CA),
four countries in Latin America (Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras) and three island nations in the
Caribbean (Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, U.S Virgin Islands). For more information, visit:
http://maps.coastalresilience.org/network/.
Related coral species differ in how they survive climate change effects: Porites corals are foundation
species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and
responses to climate change. Here, researchers show that what has been considered a single species in
the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct
species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas
where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual
coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two
Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont
subclade-- Porites evermanni was less susceptible to bleaching than Porites lobata. Thus, hidden diversity
within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive
dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future
climate change. (Jennifer N. Boulay, Michael E. Hellberg, Jorge Cortés and Iliana B. Baums, Published 11
December 2013 doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1580 Proc. R. Soc. B 7 February 2014 vol. 281 no. 1776 20131580)
Deep-sea corals record dramatic long-term shift in Pacific Ocean ecosystem: Changes at the base of the
food web in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, Earth's largest contiguous ecosystem, may be linked to
warming and expansion of open ocean gyres. Long-lived deep-sea corals preserve evidence of a major
shift in the open Pacific Ocean ecosystem since around 1850, according to a study by researchers at the
University of California, Santa Cruz. The findings, published December 15 in Nature, indicate that changes
at the base of the marine food web observed in recent decades in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre may
have begun more than 150 years ago at the end of the Little Ice Age.
The December 5 issue of Nature includes an ‘insight’ section on coastal regions including the following
climate change related articles:
Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise: The future impacts of climate change on
landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will
increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early
Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm
impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding
from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include
careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence. (Jonathan D.
Woodruff, Jennifer L. Irish & Suzana J. Camargo, Nature 504, 44-52, doi:10.1038/nature12855)
Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise: Although coastal wetlands have
long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks
between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of
sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs,
sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends
largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence
transgression into adjacent uplands. (ML Kirwan & JP Megonigal, Tidal wetland stability in the face of
human impacts and sea-level rise, Nature 504, 53-60 (05 December 2013) doi:10.1038/nature12856)
The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean: The carbon cycle of the coastal ocean is a dynamic
component of the global carbon budget. But the diverse sources and sinks of carbon and their complex
interactions in these waters remain poorly understood. Here we discuss the sources, exchanges and fates
of carbon in the coastal ocean and how anthropogenic activities have altered the carbon cycle. Recent
evidence suggests that the coastal ocean may have become a net sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide
during post-industrial times. Continued human pressures in coastal zones will probably have an important
impact on the future evolution of the coastal ocean's carbon budget. James E. Bauer, Wei-Jun Cai, Peter
A. Raymond, Thomas S. Bianchi, Charles S. Hopkinson, et al., Nature 504, 61-70, doi:10.1038/nature12857)
Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change: The risk of flood disasters is increasing for
many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land
subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering
solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may
become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide
a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering
and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale. (Stijn Temmerman,
Patrick Meire, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Peter M. J. Herman, Tom Ysebaert, et al., Nature 504, 79-83,
doi:10.1038/nature12859)
Coral Reef Resilience: One of the largest and longest experiments ever done to test the impact of nutrient
loading on coral reefs today confirmed what scientists have long suspected – that this type of pollution
from sewage, agricultural practices or other sources can lead to coral disease and bleaching. A three-year,
controlled exposure of corals to elevated levels of nitrogen and phosphorus at a study site in the Florida
Keys, done from 2009-12, showed that the prevalence of disease doubled and the amount of coral
bleaching, an early sign of stress, more than tripled. However, the study also found that once the injection
of pollutants was stopped, the corals were able to recover in a surprisingly short time (within 10 months in
at a Florida site). his is good news in light of climate change related threats to coral reefs, including higher
sea temperatures and ocean acidification.
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Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News
[For FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Climate Change Library]
Could weakening winds threaten Pacific Northwest's mountain water supply? Trends in streamflow
timing and volume in the Pacific Northwest United States have been attributed to increased temperatures
because trends in precipitation at lower elevation stations were negligible. New research demonstrates
that observed streamflow declines likely are associated with declines in mountain precipitation, revealing
previously unexplored differential trends. Lower-troposphere winter (Nov-Mar) westerlies are strongly
correlated to high elevation precipitation but weakly correlated with low elevation precipitation.
Decreases in lower-tropospheric winter westerlies across the region from 1950-2012 are hypothesized to
have reduced orographic precipitation enhancement, yielding differential trends in precipitation across
elevations and contributing to the decline in annual streamflow. Climate projections show weakened
lower troposphere zonal flow across the region under enhanced greenhouse forcing, highlighting an
additional stressor relevant for climate change impacts on hydrology. (C.H. Luce, J.T. Abatzoglou, and Z.A.
Holden, Science, 13 December 2013, Vol. 342 no. 6164 pp. 1360-1364, DOI: 10.1126/science.1242335)
Solution to Cloud Riddle Reveals Hotter Future: Global Temperatures to Rise at Least 4 Degrees C by
2100 Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if
carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found
global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates. These findings (a first)
rely on a causal physical mechanism for models to better simulate certain cloud-relevant phenomena,
show consistent predictive skill across many climate models, and point to processes connecting low-cloud
regions to the deep tropics. (Steven C. Sherwood, Sandrine Bony & Jean-Louis Dufresne, Nature, Jan 2,
2014, Vol 505, 37, doi:10.1038/nature12829)
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LCC National Council
A National Council of interagency, tribal and non-governmental
representatives has recently been named to provide national-level
coordination and support for Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
(LCCs). See list of National Council members.
The first Council meeting will be held in DC February 4-5, 2014. The LCC
National Council will support the cooperative, large-scale conservation efforts of the LCC network by
working with them to enhance coordination among the LCCs and to identify ecological and institutional
challenges such as climate change and other landscape-scale stressors that should be addressed on the
national and international scale. Click here for more information.
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Responding to Climate Scenarios
The National Park Service has released the publication Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change: A
Handbook for Practitioners <http://climate.calcommons.org/bib/using-scenarios-explore-climate-changehandbook-practitioners>
Developed under the National Park Service Climate Change Response Strategy, this guide is part of an
interdisciplinary, cross-cutting approach to addressing climate change. The handbook describes the fivestep process for developing multivariate climate change scenarios taught by the Global Business Network
(GBN) during a series of training workshops hosted by the National Park Service in 2010 and 2011. The
authors created this guide as a reference for workshop participants who possess some familiarity with
scenario planning. The process featured in this manual is not a definitive method for building climate
change scenarios, since many valid methods exist to develop climate change scenarios. The technique
presented here is just one effective and proven approach. The handbook can be found here
<http://climate.calcommons.org/sites/default/files/CCScenarios-Handbook%20FINAL%20080113.pdf>
___________________________________________________________
Reducing Greenhouse Gases
Innovative Pilot in Canada leads the way: Provincial and municipal governments in Canada are
developing innovative methods to meet ever-increasing consumer demand by encouraging property
owners to better manage their electricity consumption. In July 2013, the City of Toronto approved a pilot
program that will give 1,000 residential and 1,000 mixed-use unit property owners access to roughly $20
million in financing for energy efficiency upgrades to their buildings. The pilot comes on the heels of
October 2012 amendments to the Municipal Act and the City of Toronto Act that allows such upgrades to
be financed by leveraging municipal funding through local improvement charges (LICs). These LICs will be
repaid using property taxes over a fixed term (i.e. 20 years) at a manageable interest rate. This incentivizes
property owners to reduce their carbon footprint by attaching the cost of the upgrades to the property
and not their mortgage, the idea being that yearly payments would be less than annual energy or water
savings. If successful, the program will be rolled out on a larger scale in Toronto and in other municipalities
across the province. Other jurisdictions such as Halifax have realized incredible successes in reducing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using similar mechanisms. (from
A new material for solar panels could make them cheaper, more efficient: Researchers announced in the
journal Nature, a unique solar panel design made with a new ceramic material points the way to
potentially providing sustainable power cheaper, more efficiently, and requiring less manufacturing time.
It also reaches a four-decade-old goal of discovering a bulk photovoltaic material that can harness energy
from visible and infrared light, not just ultraviolet light. Finally, the family of materials used is all the more
remarkable because it is comprised of inexpensive, non-toxic and earth-abundant elements, unlike
compound semiconductor materials currently used in efficient thin-film solar cell technology.
Restore America’s Estuaries Submits First Greenhouse Gas Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass
Restoration to Verified Carbon Standard: On Dec 5, Restore America’s Estuaries submitted “Greenhouse
Gas Accounting Methods for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration” to the Verified Carbon Standard to
begin the approval process. This ground-breaking methodology opens the door for all tidal wetland and
seagrass restoration projects that meet the eligibility conditions to calculate net greenhouse gas benefits
and receive carbon credits. “This global methodology sets the stage to connect coastal restoration and
carbon finance. We expect it will stimulate coastal wetlands carbon projects around the world, from
mangroves and seagrass of the Coral Triangle to rebuilding tidal marshes here in the U.S.,” said Jeff Benoit,
President of Restore America’s Estuaries. Coastal blue carbon refers to the role of coastal wetlands (tidal
marshes, seagrass meadows and mangroves) in contributing to the global carbon cycle. Coastal wetlands
sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in the form of biomass and soil carbon.
Though only representing 2% of the world’s surface area they sequester 50% of the carbon that is
transferred to marine soils and sediments. Coastal wetlands are under threat and represent one of the
highest rates of loss for any ecosystem globally. At current rates, within 100 years most of the world’s
coastal wetlands will be lost. In the United States losses are increasing as well. Restoration of coastal
ecosystems brings benefits that support the livelihood of local communities, improve fisheries, reduce risk
of flooding, provide future climate change adaptation benefits, and reverse ongoing greenhouse gas
emissions from converted wetlands.
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young
People, Future Generations and Nature This paper assesses climate impacts of global warming using
ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. The authors use Earth’s measured energy imbalance,
paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define
emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young
people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ~500 GtC fossil fuel emissions
and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which
humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ~1000 GtC, sometimes associated with
2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous
consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean
heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel
emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting
intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that
would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down
emissions from conventional fossil fuels. (Hansen J, Kharecha P, Sato M, Masson-Delmotte V, Ackerman F,
et al. (2013) Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect
Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLoS ONE 8(12): e81648.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648)
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Climate and Weather Reports and Services
The Office of the Washington State Climatologist issues a monthly newsletter that summarizes the WA
climate for the previous month, includes a precipitation and temperature outlook, and also includes a
brief summary of an interesting aspect of the weather or climate of WA, among a few other sections: See
www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter for copies and to join the listserv.
The latest edition features a review of the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Northwest weather.
PNW Climate Outlook: This quarterly report from the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research
Consortium (CIRC) provides a seasonal wrap up of relevant regional issues along with an outlook for the
coming season in Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Western Montana. To subscribe send an email to John
Stevenson.
Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard: this website provides up to date climate and weather data
and forecasts/outlooks for the Great Basin including temperature, precipitation, drought, snowpack and
hydrologic information. (Some of the information includes the entire western U.S.) The Dashboard is a
joint effort amongst the Western Regional Climate Center, California and Nevada Applications Program,
the USDA Farm Service Agency and the Great Basin LCC.
NOAA Climate Connection E-Newsletter: Free monthly e-newsletter designed to increase climate literacy
and communication capacity for NOAA and its partners. Subscription requests can be sent to
NOAAClimateConnection@noaa.gov. Click here to view the June 2013 NOAA Climate Connection enewsletter.
NOAA’s State of the Climate Monthly Update
NOAA Monthly Drought Outlook: The monthly drought outlook complements the weekly drought
condition updates via the U.S. Drought Monitor. See this site.
NOAA Climate Portal: http://www.climate.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org
The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2012
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DOI Climate Science Update
Director of Pacific Islands Climate Science Center Selected: David Helweg has been selected as
the first permanent director of the U.S. Department of the Interior's Pacific Islands Climate
Science Center, headquartered at the University of Hawai'i, Manoa. The center is one of eight
regional DOI Climate Science Centers <https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/> established and managed by
the U.S. Geological Survey, to provide federal, state and local land managers access to the best
science available on climate change and other landscape-scale stressors of the nation's natural
and cultural resources. The news release can be found here
2013 Wrap Up: Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell announced on December 18th that Interior’s
eight regional Climate Science Centers are awarding nearly $7 million to universities and other
partners for research as part of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan to reduce carbon
pollution, move our economy toward clean energy sources and begin to prepare our
communities for the impacts of climate change. The 50-plus studies, conducted with Fiscal Year
2013 funding, will focus on how climate change will affect natural resources as well as
management actions that can be taken to help offset such impacts. The research will help guide
managers of parks, refuges and other cultural and natural resources to plan how to help species
and ecosystems adapt to climate change. Each CSC worked with states, tribes, federal agencies,
LCCs, universities, and other regional partners to identify the highest priority management
challenges in need of scientific input, and to solicit and select research projects. To learn more
about the funded projects and view the national and regional press releases, please visit this site
____________________________________________________________
List Servers
ClimateNews-- is a snapshot from British Columbia’s Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource
Operations, provides new and emerging climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in the natural
resource sector. Contact: katharine.mccallion@gov.bc.ca
Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)
Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington)
EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter
LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website)
OneNOAA Science Webinars
North Pacific LCC Listserve – North Pacific Tidings - important news and announcements; and NPLCC Climate
Science Digest - new science/information affecting natural and cultural resources.
NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): send email danielle_larock@fws.gov
Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) (British Columbia)--PICS Climate News Scan is a weekly summary
of the major climate-change related science, technology, and policy advances of direct relevance to the BC
provincial and the Canadian federal governments and more generally to businesses and civil society
PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: send email to kathy@uoregon.edu
US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates
FWS Resources and Tools
FWS Pacific Region employees can access journal articles and publications archived at the Region’s Climate
Change Sharepoint site (links below). The Region's Climate Change Science Synthesis document uses these
new findings. (The blog is used to highlight changes made to the document.)
> Home Page
> Read this report in Word/Find previous reports
> Document library (journal articles, reports, etc., updated weekly)
> Best available climate change science-- R1 synthesis (updated weekly)
> Blog (provides updates on new journal articles, R1 examples on use of climate science in decision
making, etc.)
> Use of Climate science: Regional examples
FWS Climate Change Response: How do partnership efforts such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy fit into the Service's overall
response to accelerating climate change? How is our agency reducing its carbon footprint? What is our
agency doing now to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife and plants? Learn more
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Natural systems and landscapes are impacted by increasing land
use pressures and widespread resource threats amplified by a rapidly changing climate. These changes are
occurring at an unprecedented pace and scale. By leveraging resources and strategically targeting science
to inform conservation decisions and actions, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network
of partnerships working in unison to ensure the sustainability of America’s land, water, wildlife, and
cultural resources. Learn more
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy: The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy will provide a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and sciencebased practices—for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, habitats and
associated ecological processes across geographic scales. Learn more
FWS Climate Change Information Toolkit: A key part of the Service's climate change strategy is to inform
FWS staff about the impacts of accelerating climate change and to engage partners and others in seeking
collaborative solutions. Through shared knowledge and communication, we can work together to reduce
the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats. Here are some resources that
can help.
Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in
partnership with the National Park Service and with input from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
developed a kit for use when talking with the public about how climate change is affecting our nation's
wildlife and public lands. Learn more .
Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series: The FWS and National Wildlife
Federation have developed a series of web conferences to increase communication and transfer of
technical information between conservation professionals regarding the growing challenges of climate
change. Learn more
(FWS employees only)
NCTC Climate Change Resource Library: The NCTC Climate Change Resource Library provides selected
citations to peer-reviewed journal articles, documents, books, theses, presentations, and Websites on the
effect of climate change on North American fish, wildlife and habitats. FWS employees can access the
library here
For more information on how the Service is working with others to conserve the nature of America in a
changing climate, visit http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/