December 2014

1. GENERAL
1.1 Confirmed data from the October 2014 School Census has now been collated.
This commentary gives a summary of the key trends in pupil numbers across the County.
1.2 The accompanying tables show pupil numbers for all primary, middle, secondary and special schools. For mainstream schools the data in the accompanying tables are organised into secondary school planning areas as they appear in the Schools Organisation Plan. The actual roll for each mainstream school is compared with the forecast number on roll published in
February 2014 * 1 . Special schools, pupil referral units and nursery classes attached to primary schools are shown in separate tables.
Key Points:
♠ An overall increase in primary aged pupils for the fifth year running;
♠
The largest reception year group seen in Somerset schools since the 1970’s;
♠ Another fall in secondary aged pupil numbers (years 7-11) the 11th year in succession that numbers have fallen;
♠ An overall increase in total pupil numbers in mainstream schools;
♠ A higher than average level of net migration in the primary age groups;
♠ A significant increase in the number of pupils in the LA’s special schools.
2. COUNTY SUMMARY TRENDS
2.1
Primary aged pupils: (pupils from Reception to Year 6, including pupils in middle schools). Pupil numbers at October 2014 stood at 39425 - 736 higher than in October 2013 (a 1.9% increase). This is now an established trend of increases in primary aged pupils in mainstream schools – the fifth successive year of increase. The rise in 2014 is in line with the forecast total - the actual total is 125 more than the forecast total – an under-forecast of 0.3%. This increase means that the number of primary aged pupils has risen by 2644 since
October 2009, a gain of 7.2%.
2.2 Secondary aged pupils : the total for secondary aged pupils in year groups 7 to
11 (including middle school pupils in years 7 and 8) was 25071 – a fall of 317 pupils (1.25%) from 2013. This fall is in line with the forecast trend with the actual number 38 less than the forecast total – a difference of 0.2%. Secondary school pupil numbers rose consistently throughout the 1990s, and levelled out in the period 2003-2005; they are now in a period of decline which is forecast to bottom-out in 2015-16.
2.3 Post-16 pupils : In school 6 th forms at October 2014 there were 2219 pupils on roll – an increase of 80 pupils from 2013, (and only 6 more than the forecast total). 6th form pupil numbers in Somerset have increased by 417 since 2008 boosted by additional school-based 16+ provision (a rise of 23.1%).

2.4 Total Mainstream Roll (Reception to Year 13): In all primary, middle and secondary schools the actual number of pupils on school rolls was 66715: an increase of 499 pupils from 2013 (a rise of 0.75%). The actual total is 93 less than the forecast total - a difference of 0.2%, which lies well within the +/- 0.50% margin for error that is the traditionally accepted target for such forecasts.
2.5 Total Mainstream, Nursery and Special Provision: With the addition of pupils on the roll of special schools, PRUs and nursery classes attached to schools, the total for all Somerset schools is 67950 an increase of 611 since
2013.
2.6 Migration* 2 : Net-migration in Somerset schools can vary considerably from year to year. In the year since the October 2013 Census there has been a larger than average net gain from migration in the primary age groups, whilst in the secondary age groups there was a small net loss which is below the average of recent years. By its very nature migration does not occur evenly and the county trends set out in the table below hide considerable local variation:
County Net Migration
Primary
Net Migration 2013 to 2014
Forecast
+167
Actual
+254
Average
2007-2014
+156
Secondary +20 -8 +11
2.7 First Admissions: The number of pupils in the reception year in primary schools stands at 5844 – which is 38 more than the forecast figure. More significantly, the number of first admissions in 2014 is above the previous high of the early-1990s and is around the level last seen the mid-1970s. With the number of reception pupils forecast to remain high over the next few years there will continue to be pressure to provide additional places for primary aged pupils as the total roll increases.
2.8
The National Context: Whilst there are always subtle variations at a local level the trends seen in Somerset generally reflect the national changes in pupil numbers.
3 AREA DATA
3.1 The majority of areas of the County are witnessing the general trend of rising primary age pupil numbers although for some it is more evident than in others.
The 2014 Census shows that there have been particularly large increases in the
Bridgwater area (+220) and the Taunton area (+215). These increases are spread across several schools as part of a planned expansion of provision, but even where there is not the increase across the planning area there can be local pressure points.
3.2 At secondary level (including middle schools) the most significant gain has been
+63 in the Bridgwater schools (although this includes a gain of 43 from the entry of an additional year group at Brymore). The biggest loss is of 78 pupils in the
West Somerset middle/secondary schools where past falls in the birth-rate are now impacting on the secondary age groups.

6.
4. SPECIAL SCHOOLS AND PUPIL REFERRAL UNITS *4
4.1 The number of pupils on the roll of the 8 Somerset LA maintained special schools at the Census date was 515 which is a significant increase since 2013.
Forecasts are not produced for individual special schools although an overall total is calculated for inclusion in the overall LA total: the actual total is 56 more than forecast, and 57 more than the October 2013 actual roll. This increase in the special school roll is quite exceptional and is spread across a number of schools.
4.2 The total roll of the four Somerset pupil referral units* 4 at the time of the Census was 55 pupils, which compares to 63 at the corresponding point in the 2013.
5. PUPIL ROLL FORECASTS
5.1 The 2014 October Census roll data will form the base figures for revised forecasts of school population for 2015 and beyond. With the actual number of pupils generally in line with that which was forecast, it can be expected that the trends that were set out in the 2013 forecasts will continue.
5.2 For any schools/area where the 2014 actual data is significantly higher or lower than the forecast data, this is likely to mean that the revised forecasts can be expected to appear higher/lower as a result. It is hoped that publication of the new forecasts will take place in early next year.
FURTHER INFORMATION
6.1 The number on roll data for October 2014 is taken from the DFE School Census
- full supporting data and further information is available on request. Please refer to the accompanying technical notes on the next page and the explanatory notes which are included with the tables of data.
6.2 The tables of data showing the number on roll information are available in a separate document [iPostID3944].
TONY VERRIER
Information Officer
Performance Management & Information Team
Tel: 01823 355961
Team email: PMIT@somerset.gov.uk

Technical Notes/Sources
* 1 The actual number on roll data is returned as part of the October 2014 School
Census undertaken on behalf of the Department for Education (Census Date
2.10.2014). The 2013 School Population Forecast data is available from the following links:
Part 1 - Commentary & Analysis
[iPostID2968]
* 2
Part 2 Forecast Data
[iPostID2965]
Migration is calculated as the net difference of all changes between school year groups from one year to the next. It excludes pupils joining at first admission, transfer to/from secondary school at year 7, and pupils reaching the end of statutory school at year 11. This means that as well as being a reflection of moves into and out of the area, the migration figure includes the net gain/loss of all pupils who have left/joined the school roll for any reason (eg transfer to/from independent school, parents opting to home educate etc).
3 For the purpose of the analysis of number on data at County level, the roll is split between the primary and secondary. This means that the roll of middle schools is divided between the two sectors at year 6/7 rather than reflecting the secondary status of the schools.
4 To avoid double counting dual registered pupils are only counted at their main enrolment. For example, the data shown for PRUs excludes dually registered pupils who are taught at a PRU yet remain on school roll. They are therefore shown against the school totals.
PMIT_ACV/Somerset Schools Number on roll Report
– Oct 2014 School Census.doc
9 December 2014