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Global Warming Packet
The global warming slowdown is real — but that’s no reason to question
climate science
By Chris Mooney February 26
It was the biggest climate change talking point of 2013 and beyond — the idea that global warming had slowed down, paused or, as
some put it, hit a “speed bump.”
The argument was widely used by climate doubters to undermine the mega-release of the U.N.’s fifth Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change report. And no wonder, for it came, to a substantial extent, from scientists themselves. The IPCC
itself acknowledged that the rate of warming from 1998 to 2012 had been somewhat slower than the rate of warming since 1951.
Ever since, climate scientists have been trying to explain why the world has seen a somewhat slower rate of warming in recent years
— and publishing multiple papers on the topic.
Now, though, a new study in the journal Science suggests that the global warming “pause” may soon run its course, and, anyway, it
seems to have been caused by natural variability in the climate system. Thus, the slowdown, such as it was, certainly is no reason not
to worry about a longer-term climate trend driven by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions.
“Our study adds additional weight to the notion that this is part of a short-term excursion that is likely to reverse in the years ahead,”
says Michael Mann of Penn State University, a co-author of the new study, whose lead author is Byron Steinman of the University of
Minnesota, Duluth.
The research focuses on a number of sources of natural variation in the Earth’s climate system, including the widely known wobble
called thePacific Decadal (or Multidecadal) Oscillation, which is characterized by swings between relatively warm tropical Pacific
Ocean temperatures and colder ones. The oscillation is similar to the El Niño-La Niña cycle but plays out on a much longer timescale
involving decades, rather than individual years.
The study found that the slowdown in global warming overall is closely tied to a “sharply decreasing” trend in this oscillation — in
which the tropical Pacific has seen a pattern of “heat burial,” characterized by relatively colder temperatures at the sea surface but
more warmth at depth. Other research has also suggested that variations in the behavior of the vast Pacific can explain the near-term
global temperature trend that some have labeled a “pause.”
“Cool Pacific temperatures have played a key role in modulating atmospheric temperature increases in the past 10 years, only partially
offset by modest warming in the Atlantic,” explains the UK Met Office Hadley Center’s Ben Booth in an accompanying
commentary published with the study.
There certainly isn’t any good news here; if anything, the researchers expect this current behavior to snap back soon enough,
increasing global warming. “Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability,
instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades,” notes the study.
“Our findings do support the notion that the pause is likely to end,” says Mann. “And perhaps 2014 does herald that at some level.” It
was, after all, the hottest year on record.
Other researchers, meanwhile, have cited other forms of natural variability to help explain the so-called pause, such as an uptick in
volcanic eruptions, whose atmospheric plumes can lead to a cooling effect by scattering sunlight away from the planet.
The upshot of it all, for those following the climate debate, may be this: We argue, day in and day out, about the meaning of each new
piece of science that has some bearing upon what is really, in the end, a policy debate. Thus, when the “pause” showed up, it quickly
became a political tool even before its scientific meaning was understood.
But that’s just a bad way of doing things, especially in light of how complex the climate system is — driven by both human-caused
factors and also natural variability that isn’t completely understood. There will always be surprises, and they’ll have to be studied. But
none of these are likely to undermine the central conclusion of climate research, which is that the globe is warming and we’re causing
it.
Yes, the rate will change. Yes, the oceans will cycle, the volcanoes belch, the sun fluctuate. But throughout it all, we’ll still have a
problem to deal with.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/26/yes-global-warming-has-slowed-down-a-little-and-yes-you-should-stillworry/
http://climatechange.procon.org/
Global Warming: An Overview
By: Driscoll, Sally, Flynn, Points of View: Global Warming, 2015
Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s average temperature that occurs naturally or, as theorized in recent years, is
induced by human activity. Most discussions on global warming today cite a correlation between an increase in global temperature
and the increase in carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. Human activity
increases the amount of these gases in the atmosphere and, as a result of the greenhouse effect, increases the earth’s temperature. As
the earth’s temperature rises, glaciers melt, ocean levels rise, and unusual weather patterns occur. Scientists warn of the loss of
ecosystems and the endangerment of human lives and communities as a result of climate change.
The ozone layer also plays a critical role in global warming. The ozone layer refers to an upper layer of the earth’s atmosphere
containing a high concentration of ozone gas that absorbs ultraviolet radiation that is potentially harmful to humans. Scientists have
made the case that CFCs, which were nonexistent until the twentieth century, are responsible for depleting the ozone layer.
The National Academy of Scientists and other international groups agree that global warming is occurring. Scientists who disagree
cite the discipline of climatology as being too new to be able to deliver accurate data. Others believe some data has been skewed to
conform to popular opinion or that data that rejects the notion of global warming has been ignored or underreported.
Most scientists agree that global warming is the result of human activity. Opponents argue that the correlation between higher levels
of greenhouse gases and the earth’s warming trend do not necessarily mean that greenhouse gases are causing the trend. Many see
warmer temperatures as part of the normal fluctuations that occur over long periods of time. They also cite the ability of naturally
occurring volcanic eruptions to cause temporary changes in weather patterns and levels of gases in the atmosphere.
The body of research on global warming undertaken during the twentieth century has resulted in numerous governmental policies that
affect individuals, business, and industry. Environmental regulations and their effect on businesses have increased the controversy
surrounding global warming.
Understanding the Discussion
Climatology: Climatology is the scientific study of climate. Climatologists study the weather of a specific region over a given time
period. The study of ancient weather conditions is called paleoclimatology. It examines the weather of past millennia by analyzing
natural evidence that remains in soil, tree rings, and ice cores. Historical climatology focuses on the weather conditions throughout
human history, or, more specifically, the climate of the last few thousand years. A study of the number of hurricanes in a given region
over the past one hundred years, for example, would be an example of historical climatology.
Environmental Regulation: State and federal statutes intended to protect the environment, wildlife, and land; prevent pollution and
the over-cutting of forests; save endangered species and conserve water; and develop and follow general plans and prevent damaging
practices.
Fossil Fuels: Depletable energy sources such as oil, natural gas, and coal, which were formed organically millions of years ago.
Greenhouse Effect: The natural ability of the atmosphere to trap solar energy in amounts that provide temperatures adequate to
sustain life. According to data from NASA (the National Aeronautics and Space Administration), the earth’s average temperature in
2013 was 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 degrees Celsius), which they report was approximately one degree warmer than twentiethcentury averages. Increased levels of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide trap more energy as it radiates
from the planet’s surface, raising the global temperature of air and ocean water.
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): With the exception of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are synthetic, greenhouse gases are naturally
occurring gases found in the atmosphere that can absorb electromagnetic radiation and, with the exception of ozone, are dispersed
throughout the atmosphere. The gases include carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, ozone, and nitrous oxide.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2): A gas that occurs naturally and is produced by the burning of fossil fuels (most notably in cars and other
vehicles) and by deforestation.
Kyoto Protocol: An agreement ratified by over 160 nations that have agreed to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions. Named for
Kyoto, Japan, where the agreement was signed in 1997.
Ozone (O3): A poisonous gas that occurs naturally in the stratosphere. It forms a thin layer approximately ten to twenty-five miles
above the earth’s surface that helps to block ultraviolet radiation.
Ozone-Depleting Substances: Defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as any chemical that breaks
down under ultraviolet light and releases chlorine or bromine atoms. These include CFCs, halons, methyl bromide, carbon
tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform.
History
The foundation of contemporary research on global warming was established in the nineteenth century. Scientists noted the ability of
gases in the atmosphere to create a greenhouse effect and discovered the correlation between the level of carbon dioxide and the
earth’s temperature. They also noted the increase in carbon dioxide during the Industrial Revolution.
The invention of Freon in the late 1920s played a significant role in the history of global warming. This colorless gas comprised of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) ended up cooling almost every refrigerator manufactured from the 1930s onward and helped spark the air
conditioning industry. In the late 1940s, it was found to make an excellent propellant for aerosol cans. Insecticides, hair spray,
deodorants, and household cleaners were just some of the widely-used products containing CFCs.
In 1974, Dr. Mario Molina, a researcher in the chemistry department at the University of California, theorized that CFCs were
destroying the ozone layer. After several years of additional research by the National Academy of Sciences, the United States banned
the use of CFCs in most aerosol cans.
Other scientific studies have shown a relationship between the use of fossil fuels and an increase in carbon dioxide. The number of
automobiles on the road increased with the post–World War II population boom; in the 1950s most cars were large and inefficient, and
leaded gasoline was the norm. However, the smog that hung over cities was attributed mostly to industry. In 1963, the United States
passed the first Clean Air Act, which set emissions standards for industry but not for vehicles.
In 1965, geophysicist Roger Revelle of the President’s Science Advisory Committee Panel on Environmental Pollution warned of the
possibility of global warming from the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. During the next few decades,
scientists from many disciplines, including biology, physics, meteorology, climatology, chemistry, and geology, contributed research
that demonstrated significant changes were taking place and made dire predictions.
In response, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program established the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to assess the data and identify options that might slow down or stop global warming. The
IPCC became the most influential group on the issue.
In 1970, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) amended the Clean Air Act and set limits for vehicle emissions in
response to data that showed vehicles were responsible for roughly 80 percent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The Clean Air
Act was further amended in 1990 to address new environmental concerns such as toxic pollutants and acid deposition.
In 1992, representatives from 170 countries met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference on Environment and Development,
commonly referred to as the “Earth Summit.” The goal of this meeting was to ensure that all industrial nations shared responsibility
for global warming and other environmental issues. The 1992 Earth Summit produced a treaty called the Convention on Biological
Diversity that specified conservation strategies, species protection, ecosystem oversight, environmental restoration, and economic
incentives for environment-friendly policy and actions. The Convention on Biological Diversity requires each member government to
develop a self-implemented strategy and plan of action for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity in their country.
Perhaps the most widely known global initiative is the Kyoto Protocol, which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) took up in 1997. The United States, under the administration of President Bill Clinton, agreed to this treaty and to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 percent. The US Senate blocked the ratification of the treaty and introduced the Hagel-Byrd
Resolution, which stressed the importance of economic priorities and the belief that developing nations, including China and India,
should also be required to participate in the Kyoto Protocol, which exempted developing nations because their per-capita emissions
levels were considered low. Ultimately, the United States, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, supported but did not ratify
the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol resulted in numerous associated environmental gains including the creation of the European
Climate Change Program in 2000 and the development of a pro-climate alliance across all decision-making levels of the European
Union system.
Environmental regulation focusing on ending global warming has been criticized by business interests for ignoring production
processes and for being expensive and excessive. Critics argue that environmental regulation has traditionally focused on “end-of-the
pipe” solutions (such as emissions or waste control) rather than addressing the basic processes that created the initial environmental
problem.
Global Warming Today
According to the EPA, the global temperature increased between 0.7 and 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 to 0.8 degrees Celsius) during
the twentieth century. There is speculation that global warming was related to the heat wave in Europe in 2003, which killed more
than 25,000 people. Global warming has also been cited as a potential cause of severe hurricanes and other strong weather systems
throughout the world. The IPCC predicts that in another hundred years, the earth could be 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.
In US politics, Democrats and the Green Party generally support legislation that they believe will curb global warming. This includes
tighter emissions caps for industry, more fuel-economy in vehicles, and stronger government sponsorship for research and
development of renewable energy sources. Republicans tend to oppose these efforts, citing economic concerns that include higher
energy costs, a decrease in jobs, and the potential for an economic depression. However, some bi-partisan legislation has been passed
in the US that aims to improve automobile efficiency.
In 2001, President George W. Bush withdrew the US from the Kyoto Protocol, and instead called for voluntary reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions. Opponents of the president’s actions included the Sierra Club, the World Wildlife Fund, the Union of
Concerned Scientists, Greenpeace, and others. Some of these groups have joined forces with Massachusetts along with eleven other
states and three major US cities in suing the EPA to uphold the federal Clean Air Act and require greenhouse gas emissions to be
regulated.
Upon taking office, US president Barack Obama pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent by 2050. He also promised
to invest billions in the development of new energy sources and energy-saving technologies. However, he was unable to get a cap-andtrade bill through the Senate. By late 2010, President Obama stated that fossil fuel reform and carbon emissions regulations would
likely be accomplished through a series of legislative acts as opposed to one large piece of legislation. Although the United States
never became a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, American officials have agreed in principle to an outline of a successor agreement
that is continuing to take shape as of February 2011. In June of 2013 President Obama outlined his Climate Action Plan, which was
designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, help sustain forests, encourage alternate forms of energy, and increase studies of actual
climate changes. As of 2014, the United States, China, and India stated that they would not ratify any pact that would legally force
them to limit the amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
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Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJj0JlcFKzY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_eJdX6y4hM
Non-Fiction Articles:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/26/yes-global-warming-has-sloweddown-a-little-and-yes-you-should-still-worry/
http://climatechange.procon.org/
http://web.b.ebscohost.com/pov/detail/detail?sid=0287fc87-b8cd-40b7-84e6b8862a3cfdff%40sessionmgr110&vid=1&hid=109&bdata=JnNpdGU9cG92LWxpdmU%3d#db=pwh&AN=2325
3610
Images:
https://livingsmall.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/global_warming.jpg
http://www.mindmapart.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/science-of-global-warming-sharon-and-janegenovese.jpg
http://www.truthdig.com/images/made/images/cartoonuploads/globalwarming_590_443.jpg
https://whatisnewinecomaterials.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/glacier-before-and-after.jpg
Graphic or Chart:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/63ebb3b9d99f862528ef19f8aeaf6d8015af81db.gif
http://www.geographypods.com/uploads/7/6/2/2/7622863/_124194829.jpg