Understanding Ocean Acidification: The Oceans & Carbonate Chemistry
CO2 and Carbonate Saturation
If the IPCC best-case scenario for atmospheric CO2 comes true over the next 100 years, what are the implications for ocean acidity and coral reef development?
The pCO2sw graph below shows that surface ocean waters in the Caribbean study area have experienced increased concentrations of dissolved CO2 over the last 15 to 20 years. If atmospheric CO2 continues to rise, what effect might that have on water pH and on the concentration of dissolved materials needed by marine life to form skeletons?
In this activity, you will use the online carbonate simulation to investigate the impact of changes in
dissolved CO2 and water temperature on pH and carbonate concentrations over time.
1. Visit www.dataintheclassroom.org and click on the Ocean Acidification module link.
2. Follow the link to “Carbonate Simulation.”
3. This simulation is set up with inputs for time in years, change in surface water temperature, and change in CO2 concentration just above the air/water contact. Set the time to 100 years and leave the other two inputs set to their default “0” values. Click Play. You should see that, if the CO2 level remains at the default 368 ppm level, pH and dissolved carbonates (carbonate and aragonite) remain stable. The graphs “flat line.”
4. Let us see if water temperature has an effect. Select 50 years for “Time.”

Understanding Ocean Acidification: The Oceans & Carbonate Chemistry
5. To isolate the variables, pick a number for Δ CO2 and leave that constant while you vary the change in water temperature. For now, use “50” for the “Δ CO2” input.
6. Now try different “Δ Temp” settings and run the simulation. Record the observed data in the table below.
7. Now repeat the process, except this time hold the “Δ Temp” constant at + 0.5 °C and vary the “Δ CO2“ value. After each trial, click Reset and run the simulation a second time with the same settings. Watch the animated coral and animated chemical equations in the lower right window. Record the observed
“Calcification” value in the table. The calcification rate displayed in this simulation is an approximation of the corals' calcification efficiency based on 100% efficiency in the year 1880, which was the beginning of the Industrial Era. A calcification rate of 67% means that an organism is only 67% as efficient at precipitating aragonite at that time as it was in 1880 when atmospheric CO2 levels were much lower.
8. Finally, try approximating three of the IPCC model-based scenarios for CO2 change in Earth’s atmosphere. First look at the A1B “middle of the road” scenario. Click on the “View IPCC projection
(A1B)” link at the bottom of the simulation to set the inputs. Click Play. Fill in your observations in the table below

Understanding Ocean Acidification: The Oceans & Carbonate Chemistry
9. Now run the B2 “environment” driven scenario. Use the input values in the table and click Play.
Record your observations in the table.
10. Finally, run the A2 “economics” driven scenario and record your observations. Our simulator cannot show the effects of the “worst case” IPCC scenario (A1F1). In that “economic” scenario, our simulation would need to have an input of just over 553 ppm for Δ CO2.
1. Which has a greater effect on pH, change in temperature or change in CO2? Which has a greater effect on carbonate and aragonite concentration?
2. In the simulation, you observed the carbonate equation as the concentrations of ions changed over time. Describe the changes in the equation over time in trials run with high Δ ppm CO2.
3. Below a pH of 7.40 to 7.66, coral organism are unable to build their skeletons quickly enough to maintain a coral reef. Look at your data table. In any of these three scenarios, does the pH of seawater reach this pH level in 100 years?
4. Describe what you observed about calcification in the three scenarios. What other values decrease as
CO2 levels increase?