Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments in Buzzards Bay, MA
Speaker Name(s):
Category:
Affiliation:
Contact Information:
Lisa McStay
Coastal Resiliency Topics
RPS ASA
lisa.mcstay@rpsgroup.com,
55 Village Square Drive
Wakefield, RI 02879
(401)-789-6224
RPS ASA has recently partnered with coastal communities in Buzzard’s Bay, MA on a series of new coastal
resiliency studies funded by the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. These efforts include
work for the City of New Bedford and neighboring towns of Acushnet and Fairhaven to examine vulnerability
of infrastructure and natural resources to sea level rise and changing storm intensity, and an ongoing study
for the nearby town of Mattapoisett to quantify potential impacts of future climate changes to critical water
and wastewater infrastructure. Data generated by these studies will further the municipal, state, and federal
government’s understanding of public infrastructure vulnerability and help municipalities plan for future
storm events.
The assessment approach includes: (i) inundation mapping, with consideration of potential interactions
between sea level rise, increased storm intensity, and precipitation changes that could compromise water
quality infrastructure and coastal protection within Buzzard’s Bay, (ii) damage assessment using FEMA’s
HAZUS model, and (iii) a suite of interactive online tools for viewing inundation maps, damage statistics and
storm surge hydrographs at critical locations. Predictions of coastal inundation are performed using RPS
ASA’s StormTools system, a suite of numerical models being developed as a web service to automate model
setup and execution. StormTools provides wide spread accessibility of high resolution numerical models to
user-selected areas of interest and can be used both to access model predictions for a study area and, at a
more sophisticated level, to perform simulations using models and associated databases that reside on the
web. For Buzzard’s Bay, NOAA's SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model was used to
estimate storm surge elevations and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes
affecting the region. The SLOSH module of StormTools was used to develop an ensemble of synthetic
hurricanes (60,000+) to examine the effect of potential changes in hurricane wind speed, forward speed,
radius of winds, track, landfall, and changes in sea level associated with future climate change projections.
The study for the New Bedford region considers flooding impacts associated with the potential failure of the
hurricane barrier. SLOSH model results were processed in StormTools to identify the worst-case inundation
scenarios and compare those to storm surge inundation from historic events.
In New Bedford, the vulnerability analysis showed that hurricane barriers around New Bedford Harbor
become compromised by Category 2 hurricanes with 4-foot SLR and Category 3 hurricanes at current mean
higher high water (MHHW). Municipalities can use a water quality infrastructure adaptation project
adaptation matrix developed in the report to prioritize projects which will protect critical water quality
infrastructure from storm-related damages. Recommendations include adding on-site generators, checking
for buoyancy, and flood-proofing doors, electrical systems and air intakes at vulnerable structures.
Speaker Bio:
Lisa McStay – Ocean Engineer, RPS ASA
Ms. McStay is an Ocean Engineer with Applied Science Associates (dba RPS ASA). She holds a BS in Ocean
Engineering from the University of Rhode Island and has a broad engineering background. Since joining RPS
ASA in September 2010, she has been primarily involved in various types of coastal hazard studies and
climate change related projects including studies related to inundation, coastal flooding, and numerical
modeling of storm surge for a range of clients. Additionally, Ms. McStay has been involved in numerous
coastal risk assessments including sea level rise, storm surge, wave, seiche, and tsunami effects for various
major industrial facilities.