WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
___________________________________________
RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
RA I/TCC-20/Doc. 8.2
(21.VIII.2012)
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TWENTIETH SESSION
ITEM 8.2
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE
3 TO 7 SEPTEMBER 2012
Original: ENGLISH
LINKAGE WITH WMO REGIONAL PROJECTS
Storm Surge Watch Scheme
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document will report on the progress of and present issues related to the
Storm Surge Watch Scheme of RA I TCC including the possible implementation of
the Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (CIFDP) in possible
cooperation with SWFDP in the region.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Tropical Cyclone Committee is invited to note the progresses of the Storm Surge
Watch Scheme and comment on the proposed activities to be carried out to implement/improve the
storm surge advisory and CIFDP activities in the Committee region.
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Appendix:
Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session
RA I/TCC-20/Doc. 8.2, p.2
DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN GENERAL SUMMARY
8.2
Storm Surge Watch Scheme
Background
8.2.1
Climate change is a major threat to sustainable growth and development in Africa.
Its impacts are most evident to coastal and marine communities, on the account of frequent severe
storms, relating coastal inundation and sea level rise that cause major economic impacts and
population shifts. Coastal countries in RA I, including those in the South and East African coasts
suffer in particular from recurrent coastal inundation by storm surges. There have been the
ongoing requests from the region for technical support and training, as well as the recent dialogue
at the Climate Change workshop and the effects on African Coastal communities (August 2011,
South Africa).
8. 2.2
WMO has made continuing efforts to provide support for technical development and
training opportunities in the Regions of concern, and for strengthening the Region-oriented
activities. In order to provide up-to-date information for storm surge forecasting, the JCOMM guide
to Storm Surge Forecasting (WMO-No.1076) was published, and its Dynamic Part
(http://www.jcomm.info/SSguide) is being continuously reviewed by the JCOMM Expert Team on
Waves and Coastal Hazards Forecasting Systems (ETWCH). Related training activities are being
extended for the benefit of all Members exposed to coastal risks, for example, the 8 th JCOMM-TCP
training workshop on storm surge and wave forecasting is planned to be held for the forecasters
and operator of the NMHSs and scientists in African coasts (19-24 November 2012. See
paragraphs under item 6.6).
Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP), a multidisciplinary
approach towards an integrated SSWS
8. 2.3
Furthering the effort to assist the Members in building capabilities to provide
operational forecasting/warning services not only for storm surges but also for coastal inundation
causes by multiple factors (e.g. storm surges, waves, tides, hydrological flooding), JCOMM in
cooperation with CHy has initiated the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration
Project (CIFDP), aiming to provide an example of cooperative work as a strategy for building
improved operational forecast and warning capability for coastal inundation, combining extreme
waves, surges and river flooding events that can be sustained by the responsible national
agencies. The project focuses on two fundamental aspects of the operational services in NMHSs,
in support of the national coastal disaster management:
(1)
Institutional cooperation (at national level) for operation;
(2)
support to develop (a) technical solution(s) for coastal inundation forecasting, to be
operated by the responsible national agencies, and responding to national
requirements.
8. 2.4
It should be noted that the initiation and successful implementation of CIFDP is
depending on strong engagement and leadership of the national agencies, and to be realized at
national level with support and guidance provided by WMO. The outcome (a demonstrated
operational forecasting/warning system) and developed procedure in each national project will
make direct contribution to the regional SSWS in terms of providing guidelines and best practice
for technical and institutional coordination.
8. 2.5
The concept and established framework of CIFDP starting from the NMHSs,
concept, implementation plan and its technical recommendation (Forecast System Concept for
CIFDP) can be found at http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP, or at the direct link to each reference
document as following:
RA I/TCC-20/Doc. 8.2, p.3
(1)
Project Concept:
http://www.jcomm.info/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docI
D=8918
(2)
Implementation Plan (2012 update):
http://www.jcomm.info/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docI
D=8881
(3)
Technical Recommendation (2012 update):
http://www.jcomm.info/index.php?option=com_oe&task=viewDocumentRecord&docI
D=8917
8. 2.6
Currently two national CIFDP sub-projects are being implemented in Bangladesh
(Bay of Bengal) and in Dominican Republic (Caribbean). Two other sub-projects are under
consideration for Fiji (South Pacific) and Indonesia (North Pacific / South China Sea) in order to
improve the forecasting and warning capability of NMHSs on coastal inundation caused by waves,
storm surges and hydrological flooding, following the recommendations made at the SSWS Action
Group meeting in 2008.
8. 2.7
The Committee noted that the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
(SWFDP) in the southern Africa region has reached the Continuous Development Phase (Phase 4)
defined by CBS, which represents a degree of project maturity to take action for ensuring long-term
sustainability and for seeking synergies with other related programmes. The Committee is invited
to:
(1)
consider the potential benefit of developing national sub-project(s) of CIFDP as an
extension(s) to the successful SWFDP-southern Africa implementation, such as the
use of regional forecasting guidance products made available through the RSMC
Pretoria (see also item 8.1), and;
(2)
decide on the course of actions for the future development, starting from reaching a
national agreement with other national agencies for disaster management, to ensure
the future forecasting products would become a part of an end-to-end operational
coastal disaster management system.
Figure 1.
Key players in the implementation of the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting
Demonstration Project (CIFDP): reviewed by the Steering Group of the April 2012,
and endorsed at 4th session of JCOMM, May 2012.
RA I/TCC-20/Doc. 8.2, p.4
Figure 2.
Conceptual diagram of forecast systems recommended for coastal inundation
forecasting: consolidated by the Steering Group of the WMO Coastal Inundation
Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP), April 2012
Extended Participation of African Scientists in Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
8. 2.8
The 8th JCOMM-TCP training workshop on storm surge and wave forecasting is
planned to be held in Nairobi, Kenya, from 19 to 24 November 2012. This series of workshop is
organized by the joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology (JCOMM) in collaboration with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) of WMO, with
a view to enhancing capacities of the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NMHSs)
for reduction of marine hazards to complement broader disaster preparedness and mitigation
activities. Noting the emerging issue of recurrent coastal inundation by storm surges particularly in
the South and East African coast, the eighth Workshop is convened with a regional focus on South
and East African countries, and aims to directly contribute to the development of the Storm Surge
Watch Scheme (SSWS) of WMO.
8. 2.9
Africa is emerging in the domains of marine meteorology and oceanography, and
now ready to face a number of challenges to human security through marine scientific research.
Many African countries have indicated their readiness to contribute to climate research and
operational oceanography. In this context, the Co-president of JCOMM made a request to discuss
the related issues to the capacity development, and in parallel to the extended participation of
African Members in these domains, at the second session of the African Ministerial Conference on
Meteorology (AMCOMET, 15-19 October 2012). The specific actions proposed to RA I members,
which are directly related to the work of TCC and JCOMM, are as following:
1)
setup an operational storm surge forecasting procedure to protect coastal and
ocean communities, through the active participation in related training as well as
activities for technical development (see above paragraphs 8.2.8 and 8.2.7);
2)
participate in the global effort to develop storm surge climatology /dataset,
coordinated by JCOMM, initiating national storm surge climatological data collection.
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