WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
_____________________
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3)
(30.X.2015)
__________
EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs
TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING
MIAMI, FLORIDA USA
ITEM 4.2
2 TO 6 NOVEMBER 2015
ENGLISH ONLY
RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE RSMC NADI
(Submitted by RSMC Nadi)
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 2
Introduction
The Fiji Meteorological Service's area of responsibility fluctuates dependent on whether
the customer is marine, aviation or a member of the general public.
The TCOP states that RSMC Nadi, on behalf of the Fiji Meteorological Service, is
responsible for preparing marine warnings for the area between 0ºS and 25°S from 160°E to
120°W. This is slightly larger than the area detailed in the WMO Manual on Marine
Meteorological Services in regard to Fiji's responsibilities, as a preparation service under the
Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS). Under an informal arrangement, RSMC
Nadi will continue to provide marine warnings for the above area.
In accordance with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Air Navigation
Plan (ANP) for the Asia (ASIA) and Pacific (PAC) Regions, RSMC Nadi performs a dual role as
a Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) and a Meteorological Watch Office (MWO). As a
TCAC, RSMC Nadi provides aviation advisory information for the area between 0ºS and 40°S
from 160°E to 120°W and as a MWO provides warnings for international air navigation as
SIGMET messages for its Flight Information Region (FIR).
Fiji is also responsible for issuing general advisories on tropical cyclones for the same
zone enclosed by the marine warning area under its obligations as a RSMC.
Besides Fiji, RSMC Nadi also produces Special Weather Bulletins for a number of other
Pacific Island countries like Banaba, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Niue, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu under
a longstanding undertaking by the Government of Fiji.
The Tropical Cyclone Season
The Tropical Cyclone Season in the Southwest Pacific Region officially runs from 1
November to 30 April. Should tropical cyclogenesis become a possibility at some other time of
the year, Tropical Cyclone Season procedures are activated.
Definition: Tropical Cyclone
A non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters and
having a definite organised wind circulation with a maximum 10-minute average wind speed of
34 knots (63 km per hour ie gale force) or greater near the centre.
Tropical Cyclone Names
RSMC Nadi will provide identification for tropical cyclones developing in its region of
responsibility by allocating names in sequence from a list approved by the WMO RAV Tropical
Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean whenever there is
reasonable evidence that a tropical cyclone has formed.
The naming criteria adopted in the 8th Session of the WMO RAV Tropical Cyclone
Committee for the Southwest Pacific meeting in Rarotonga, September 2000, was amended in
the 9th session in Manila, Philippines in May 2002. It was further amended in the 10th Session in
Brisbane, Australia in July 2004 to read:
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 3
A non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters,
will be named whenever observations and/or Dvorak intensity analysis indicate the
presence of gale force or stronger winds near the centre which are likely to continue. It
includes systems that satisfy these criteria but have a non-classical appearance in the satellite
imagery and/or form further south than the normal formation areas.
Contingency Plan for Failures of RSMC Nadi
If a tropical cyclone with storm or hurricane force winds is likely to threaten RSMC Nadi
in the near future then RSMC Nadi should discuss the situation with the duty Lead Forecaster in
Wellington RSMC. One of the objectives of any discussions will be to decide whether or not
Nadi needs to send half-hourly check messages. If the situation does not warrant the sending of
check messages then a review time must be set for another discussion with Wellington RSMC.
Nadi needs to initiate Check Bulletins on the GTS (30min interval). Communications failure,
advise RSMC Wellington, by telephone preferably, to be prepared to take over its TCWC
functions. If no contact is established after 3 consecutive check bulletins, Wellington RSMC will
assume TCWC responsibility.
TC SEASONAL ACTIVITES
TC Activity in RSMC Nadi AOR since 2000/01 Season
No of TC
No of Hurricane
10
9
8
7
6
5
6
4
3
2
1
2
0
00’01 01’02
02’03 03’04
04’05
05’06
06’07
07’08
08’09
09’10
Figure 1 TC in RSMC Nadi Area since 2000/01 Season
10’11
11’12
12'13
13'14
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 4
2014/15 Numbered System Distribution
5
# of TD's
4
4
10/28/2015
4
4
# named systems
FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
3
2
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
0
Nov
Dec
2
1
0
Jan
Feb
1 1
0 0
Mar
Apr
May
9
Jun
Figure 2 2014/15 Numbered Systems
10/28/2015
FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
CAT 5: - PAM
CAT 4:
CAT 3: OLA
CAT 2: NIKO,SOLO
CAT 1 : REUBEN, RACHAEL
Figure 3 2014/15 TC Tracks
11
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 5
CAT 5: - IAN
CAT 4:
CAT 3: LUSI
CAT 2: KOFI, EDNA
CAT 1 : JUNE, MIKE
10/28/2015
FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
A
11
Figure 4 2013/14 Post event best track
Name
Dates
Peak Intst
(kt)
Cat
Countries Affected
IAN
03 – 12/01
110
5
Tonga
JUNE
17 – 18/01
40
1
Solomon Is, New
Caledonia
KOFI
01 – 03/03
50
2
Fiji, Tonga
LUSI
9 – 13/03
80
3
Vanuatu
MIKE
19 – 20/03
35
1
Cook Islands
EDNA
04 – 05/02
50
2
New Caledonia
14
Table 1 2013/14 Season TC Information
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 6
2.1
Tropical Cyclone Advisory for international civil aviation and coordination with
WAFCs.
We are finalising on the IBL System. The developers are also informed on our need for
Graphical TCA. Once IBL is up and running, we will issue graphical TCA's through
IBL.
Operational forecasts/advisories, watches and warnings –Requirements
FMS issues 2 tracks, the threat and the uncertainty maps. They have different time
frames.
Our SWB are 2 phases, Alerts and Warnings.
2.3
2.3.1
Improved accuracy of the forecast of TCRSMCs/TCWCs.
Unfortunately, we are yet to receive satellite images... so we are yet to undertake our
analysis for the 2014-2015 season.
RSMC Nadi Forecast Position Error
500
T+0
T + 12
450
T + 24
400
T + 48
T + 72
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
16
0
00'01
01'02
02'03
03'04
04'05
05'06
06'07
07'08
08'09
09'10
10'11
Figure 5 RSMC Nadi Forecast Position Error from 2000/01 to 2013/14 season
11'12
12'13
13'14
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 7
450
IAN
400
Individual TC Error over Time
JUNE
KOFI
LUSI
MIKE
EDNA
323.26
1314
300
235.6
222.52
200
150
100
FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
250
10/28/2015
350
50
17
0
T+0
T + 12
T + 24
T + 48
T + 72
2013/14 Individual TC forecast Error.
2.3.2
Requirements of the observational data and the NWP guidance.
CREX bulletins are issued for NWP.
Stations (Fiji)
Manual Synoptic Stations
Climate Stations (9am)
Rainfall Stations (9am)
Automatic Weather Stations
TB3 Rain Gauge
AWOS
2.4.1
Numbers
16
18
34
26
10
4
Attachment of forecasters to RSMCs during the cyclone season
- Forecasters from other NMS can be attached to RSMC Nadi provided it’s
funded.
- RSMC Nadi Mets similarly upon availability of funding can request for
attachment at
other RSMCs.
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 8
2.4.2
Training courses and workshops
4 Technical Staffs trained at Pacific Desk Hawaii, 1 currently being trained.
10 Southern Hemisphere TC workshop was held in Fiji in 2013 with the funding
from WMO.
- 11 Southern Hemisphere TC workshop in Melbourne was attended my two Fiji Mets
with the funding from WMO.
- 3 Officers currently doing WMO Class 1 met course (2 Philippines, 1 India) WMO
funded.
- Talks are underway for another officer to attend the BOM course next year.
-
2.5
Support to operational forecasters
2.5.1
-
Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
RSMC Nadi is so grateful to WMO for these guidances, especially on the SWFDDP
Project. While RSMC Nadi finds that Global Guidances forecast of Wind Intensity and
Pressure is reasonable well, it tends to struggle on the radial extent of the Gale Force
and Higher winds. RSMC Nadi kindly request if this could be improved upon.
2.5.2
WMO/TCP Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website
Mets have just been made aware of this and they are going through it.
2.6
2.7
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Competencies
RSMC Nadi awaits WMO TCP on this, especially on the Development of tool kits.
Application of Common Alert Protocol (CAP) to TC warnings.
There hasn't been much movement in CAP.
2.8 Standardization of procedures and harmonized practices in TC forecasting operations and
post-analysis
TC Directive. Updated every year, one month before the start of TC season but at
times it extends to within the 1 month.
2.10
Review of terminology/classification of tropical cyclones.
No changes proposed from our area.
Case Study Severe TC Pam
Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, the third TC that formed in the RSMC Nadi area during
the 2014-2015 season affected Vanuatu severely. It was the most severe and strongest cyclone
to come very close as well as make landfall on one of Vanuatu’s islands.
A tropical Low formed on the 6th of March 2015, some 800 Kilometres northeast of
Torres Group. At that time the central pressure of the system was 997hPa with winds at the
centre at 30 knots. Favorable conditions at the surface and upper level allowed the system to
develop and intensify; the system was named “Pam” at 0600UTC on the 9th of March 2015. At
that time, the system was 600 kilometres northeast of Banks, with winds at the centre at 35
knots, and the central pressure of 995hPa.
TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (3), p. 9
Pam intensified into a CAT 2 system at 2100UTC on 9th March when it was about 245
kilometers north-northeast of Anuta. Pam continued to intensify and was upgraded to a CAT 3
system at 0900UTC on 10th March when it was about 160 kilometer north-northeast of Anuta.
Pam intensified further into a CAT 4 system at 0900UTC, on the 11th of March, as it
moved closer to the northern islands of Vanuatu. The system took a south southwest direction,
moving very close to Vanuatu. It became a CAT 5 system at 0900UTC, on the 12th of March, as
it took a south southwest path, to the east of Penama province.
The closest distance from the category 5 system to the islands within SHEFA province
was 30 kilometres east northeast of Shepard’s group, and 45 Kilometres east of Port Vila. After
Efate, the system track southwards, then south southeast. It then made landfall on Erromango
at 1800UTC on the 13th of March 2015. It was 20 kilometres west of Tanna at 2100UTC on the
13th of March 2015.
Damages
At its peak, the central pressure of the system was 900hPa, with winds at the centre
estimated at 250 KM/HR. Based on the analysis at the time of the warnings, the islands that
received 250 km/hr of winds were Pamma, Ambryum, Epi, Efate Offshore Islands, Shepards
Group, Efate, Tanna and Erromango.
Based on the analysis track, sever tropical cyclone Pam caused widespread and severe
damage on Pamma, Ambryum, Epi, Efate Offshore Islands, Shepards group, Efate, and the
southern islands, in particular Tanna and Erromango.
The National Disaster Management Office indicated the following in its initial assessments:
Over Malampa province, on the island of Pamma, 50 - 90% of buildings were destroyed.
Over Shepard’s Group, 60 to 70% of houses were destroyed. A few villages had all their
buildings destroyed.
On Efate, 70% of buildings were destroyed. In Port Vila, the capital of Vanuatu, 70% of
buildings were damaged; water was out for one day in most areas, and light was out for a period
of one to four days.
Over Tafea province, in particular Tanna and Erromango, between 70 to 80% of
buildings were destroyed. In some villages on these two islands, everything was destroyed.
A total of 11 lives were lost during the passage of Pam.