A runoff election probable in 2012…?
By Ipsos-Synovate: 4th November 2011
Raila Odinga still the most popular presidential candidate
If elections were to be held today, Prime Minister Raila Odinga would be the most
popular presidential candidate with 34 per cent of Kenyans indicating that they
would vote for him. A new survey conducted by Ipsos-Synovate from 15th to 23rd
October 2011 also indicates that 24 per cent of Kenyans would vote for Deputy
Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. William Ruto would garner 10 per cent of the vote,
Kalonzo Musyoka 9 per cent, Martha Karua 5 per cent, Eugene Wamalwa 2%.
Other presidential aspirants such Peter Kenneth, Raphael Tuju and others would
garner less than 2 per cent of votes.
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A run-off between Raila and Uhuru?
The New Constitution stipulates that “a candidate shall be declared President if the
candidate receives more than half (over 50 per cent plus one) of all votes cast in the
election” and these survey results indicate the probability of a run-off. Findings of
this study also indicate that a run-off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta
would be contentious - slightly more Kenyans (44 per cent) would vote for the latter
and 41 per cent would vote for the Raila Odinga. Fifteen per cent of Kenyans are
undecided about whom they would vote for and this proportion of undecided voters
would be enough to tilt the win either way.
“Who would you vote for in case of a run off between…..?”
By Total
Proportions of those undecided is too high for the run-off results below to be conclusive. The
undecided respondents have a potential to change the political landscape once they decide and
swing the vote either way. The ruling by the ICC to commit to trial or set free any of the
presidential aspirants on the Ocampo 6 list may also affect the political platform.
DK (don’t know) : NR (no response)
Ipsos-Synovate’s experience over the last 9 years of conducting political opinion
poll surveys has proven that the undecided proportion has to be less than 5 per cent
for any survey results to be conclusive.
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Support for Raila Odinga is predominantly from his strong hold - Nyanza, Western
and Coast provinces. Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters are drawn mainly from Central,
Eastern and Rift Valley and this may be an indication that his close association with
the members of the G7 alliance of Kalonzo Musyoka and William Ruto is yielding
fruit.
Kenyan’s not aware of presidential election requirements
Only 27 per cent of Kenyans are aware that a Presidential aspirant must garner at
least 50 per cent plus one of the votes to win the election. Awareness is higher in
Nairobi province (54 per cent) followed by Central Province with 37 per cent and
Nyanza 32 per cent. In all the other regions awareness is below 30 per cent.
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Voter intentions: Gain-Loss Matrix
If elections were to be held today, 49 per cent of those who voted for President
Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 elections are most likely to vote for Uhuru Kenyatta in the
2012 elections whilst 11 percent would vote for Raila Odinga.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga is likely to retain support from 62 per cent of those who
voted for him in the 2007 elections though he would lose 16 per cent of his
supporters to William Ruto.
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About the survey:
The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18+. A total nationwide
sample size of 2,000 comprising both males and females was sampled using a face
to face household methodology. The margin of error attributed to sampling and
other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 per cent margin at 95 per
cent confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates
on the target population opinion at a national level. The fieldwork for this survey was
conducted between 15th and 23rd October 2011.
For further details please contact:
Maggie Ireri
Managing Director
Ipsos-Synovate Kenya
Tel: + 254 - 20 - 4450190
maggie.ireri@synovate.com
Or
Victor Rateng
Project Manager – Public Opinion Polls
Ipsos-Synovate Kenya
Tel: + 254 - 20 - 4450190
victor.rateng@synovate.com
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