Characterization of Drought and its Assessment over Sindh-Pakistan
during 1951-2010
Shahzada Adnan1,2
1. Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology
(CIIT), Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
2. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Abstract:
Drought is one of the complex meteorological disasters which strengthen both temporally
and spatially. Iteffects water resources, agriculture, livestock and socioeconomic pattern of the
region with passage of time. Its prediction is difficult, but it can be monitored on the basis of the
climatology and its distribution over a region. In this study, we provide a high spatial and
temporal drought climatology, using the past 60 years (1951-2010) gridded data (0.5°x0.5°) of
precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatological Center (GPCC) and soil moisture
from the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC). This study helps in explaining the time, duration,
intensity and frequency of the drought periods over Sindh province in Pakistan. The
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using a fitted Gamma distribution and Run Methods is
calculated from Regional Drought Identification Model (REDIM) on 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months
basifor stationary and regional analysis. The results show a strong temporal correlation between
precipitation departures, SPI and soil moisture. The long-term data shows that the vulnerability
depends upon monsoon (July-September); contributes 72% and 82% of annual precipitation in
upper and lower Sindh respectively. The annual and seasonal analysis shows that MannKendall
and Sen’s Slops Methods have a direct relationship between them and no significant change
observed in the precipitation. The category classification criteria are defined to monitor/forecast
drought in Sindh. The regional analysis tells that 1969, 1974, 1987 and 2002 were the most
severe historical drought years, ever experienced in Sindh, with ten districts highly vulnerable to
drought(Tharparkar is the most). Hence, this climatological study provides useful information to
disaster management agencies and forecasters for assessing both the regional vulnerability of
drought and its seasonal predictability in Pakistan.
About the Speaker:
Shahzada Adnan did MS in Meteorology from CIIT, Islamabad. He Joined Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD) in 2005 and is working as a Meteorologist.Now, He is
conducting PhD research on “Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought and its Characteristics
over Pakistan”. Mr Adnan has published more than Sixresearch articles in peer reviewed
journals and conference proceedings. He is the project coordinator of many PMD Early warning
Projects on droughts/floods with UNDP,WFP,SLMP,ACTED,SMRC and World Bank. His
areas of interests are climate change and variability, climate and weather extremes and regional
meteorological drought and its teleconnection and alternate energy sources.He presented his
research work at many national and international conferences, workshops and seminars. He is
reviewer of many renowned International peer-reviewed journals of the American Institute of
Physics (AIP), Springer, SciTechnol and Elsevier.
Date: 27 November, 2014
Time: 3:30 PM - 4:30PM
Venue: Department of Meteorology, Old Bio-Sciences Campus
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad
Contact: muhammad_latif@comsats.edu.pk