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Interim progress report
Team Cupcake (Group 3)
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Our Asks
Final
product?
Conceptual
model (process
map)
Key
takeaways
What
have we missed, what
could be cut?
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Objective
Put forth an interregional
assessment of the
preparedness and resilience of
Mediterranean nations across
intergovernmental and interpolitical relationships during a
period of extreme drought
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History of climate change and
interstate conflict
Bellagio Conference
on Climate Change,
Food Production, and
Interstate Conflict 1975
UN Millennium Summit
Climate change and its
possible security
implications 2009
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Vulnerability & Readiness
We’re interested in how this varies across the
Mediterranean
● EU, Non EU, Asia and Africa
There are already assessments of the vulnerability and
readiness at national scales
● e.g. NDGain Index
There are two particular factors we’re focusing on:
● “Adaptive capacity of the communities is often
depleted when they are in conflict zones” (UNEP,
2009)
● Membership of political unions (e.g. EU)
ND-GAIN Index of Vulnerability and Readiness
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Governance
United Nations
Comprehensive, guidance
on climate change, resource
management, and displaced
peoples
European Union
Comprehensive, guidance
on climate change, resource
management, and displaced
peoples
Middle East
League of Arab States (?)
African Union
Research, advocacy and
capacity-building for
climate change resilience
Non – EU Europe
Mediterranean
Union
“peace, stability and
prosperity”
Individual States
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Supplementary Material RCP8.5
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate
Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Supplementary Material RCP8.5
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate
Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5
Economic Impact: No Drought
3.0%
Economic losses for RCP 8.5
warming
Africa
Middle East
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Need for finer scale/sector
estimates
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Europe
% GDP
2.5%
RICE 2010
Global temperature increase
Best estimate 2.0 C
Likely range 1.4 C - 2.6 C
How these estimates would
change if a “super drought” is
superimposed?
Include the possibility of
“poverty traps” and downward
development spirals
0.5%
Social and governance
consequences
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Drought and aridity
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The Standard Precipitation Index
(SPI)

The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the actual
precipitation compared to the probability of precipitation
for various time frames. The SPI is an index based on
precipitation only. It can be used on a variety of time scales,
which allows it to be useful for both short-term agricultural and
long-term hydrological applications.

A drought event occurs any time the SPI is continuously negative
and reaches an intensity of -1.0 or less. The event ends when
the SPI becomes positive.

Each drought event, therefore, has a duration defined by its
beginning and end, and an intensity for each month that the
event continues. The positive sum of the SPI for all the months
within a drought event can be termed the drought’s
“magnitude”.
The National Drought Mitigation Center
http://drought.unl.edu/
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Southern Europe
North Africa
Middle East
European Drought Observatory
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Climate Change and Migration: Mediterranean Basin
Climate change: Exacerbate existing migration flows
Different hazards, different effects: Gradual vs. extreme changes
Important questions:
1) What are the existing migration
connections in the Mediterranean Basin?
2) What combination of circumstances
currently lead people to move there?
3) How might a severe drought
exacerbate these conditions?
4) Potential for novel migration flows?
Abel and Sander, 2014
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Potential Economic Impacts:
Drought

Two major factors in the regional economy: tourism and
agriculture

Influence of these sectors on GDP is not evenly spread out
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Agriculture influence is the highest in:
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Albania (19.5%)
Syria (17.6%)
Morocco (15.1%)
Egypt (14.5%)
Tourism influence is highest in:
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Croatia (12.1%)
Montenegro (9.8%)
Morocco (8.6%)
Tunisia (7.3%)
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Potential Economic Impacts:
Drought (cont’d)

Agriculture might represent bigger impacts as a larger
portion of the economy in more vulnerable countries

Impacts on agriculture are also easier to immediately
discern than those on tourism

There are human dimension uncertainties surrounding both
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Agriculture impact depends on land management
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Tourism impact depends on how those outside the region
respond – there is more of a lag in response
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Drought can lead farmers to transition to tourism which may
actually help conserve remaining water resources
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Maslow’s hierarchy – lowered
capacity
Desertification – removes safety and
physiological due to un-inhabitability,
un-profitability
Migration/displaced persons –
removes belonging, safety,
physiological due to life
disruption/involuntary moves
Scarcity/Economic Reduction –
removes self-actualization, selfesteem, belonging, safety,
physiological due to limited resources
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Maslow’s hierarchy – point of
intervention
Current view is that climate change can be
solved only after immediate needs (jobs,
food, education, etc) have been solved
Climate change causes problems in
areas of belonging, safety, and
physiological and should be solved for
in conjunction with other needs
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Our Asks
Final
product?
Conceptual
model (process
map)
Key
takeaways
What
have we missed, what
could be cut?