Assignment 2
Presentation Due Due: Monday 11th March in Class
Question 1. The following table contains information about the weather in London.
Using the table construct a knowledge base of rules that can be used to predict the
weather. Discuss the uncertainty in this knowledge and how you represent this
uncertainty in VP Expert. Use this information to construct VPExpert rules with
certainty factors to predict the weather. Discuss the rules obtained and construct
experiments to determine how good your solution is (how many rules does it contain,
how meaningful are the rules and how often does it produce a correct or reasonably
correct forecast and how often is the forecast a bust). Don't use data mining tools or
IDX algorithms. Try to extract 'expert type' rules.
Day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Min
Temp
9.4
4.2
7.6
5.7
3
4.4
4.8
1.8
2.4
5.5
3.7
5.9
3
5.4
8.8
2.4
4.3
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
5.6
5.7
2.9
5.8
3.9
3.8
5.8
6.7
4.5
4.6
Max
Temp
11
12.5
11.2
10.5
12
9.6
9.4
9.2
10.2
12.7
10.9
10
11.9
12.1
9.1
8.4
10.8
11.1
8.4
7.9
7.3
14
14
13.9
16.4
17
18.3
15.4
8.8
9.6
9.6
Rain
17.5
4.1
7.7
0
0
0
4.6
5.5
4.8
4.2
4.4
4.8
0
4.8
8.8
3
0
4.2
5.4
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.2
0
4.8
3.2
Sun
Hours
3.2
6.2
1.1
4.3
9.5
3.5
10.1
7.8
4.1
3.8
9.2
7.1
8.3
1.8
0
3.1
4.3
6.6
0.7
0.1
0
6.8
8.8
9.5
10.3
9.9
8.3
7
4.2
8.8
4.2
Actual
Weather
rain
rain
rain
dry
dry
dry
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
dry
rain
rain
rain
dry
rain
rain
rain
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
rain
dry
rain
rain
Forecast
Weather
rain
rain
rain
dry
dry
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
dry
rain
rain
dry
rain
rain
rain
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
dry
rain
rain
It is quite acceptable to introduce terms such as "low" "medium" and "high" to
describe for example, daily temperature. This could make the rules that you extract
more "expert like", i.e., meaningful.
Question 2.
A doctor explains the following:
A doctor explains the following to a knowledge engineer: "A sore throat and chest
congestion together usually indicate allergic rhinitis. Chest congestion, nasal
congestion and a sore throat together are often an indication of pneumonia. Chest
congestion and nasal congestion without the sore throat can also indicate pneumonia.“
He goes on to say: "Antihistamines are always effective against allergic rhinitis while
erythromycin is very effective to treat a strep throat if the patient is not allergic to it.
A decongestant is frequently recommended for nasal congestion in the presence of
high blood pressure. Penicillin is always used to treat pneumonia unless the patient is
allergic to it, in which case tetracycline is used except when the patient is allergic to
both penicillin and tetracycline and then only if the patient is critical penicillin is
always used".
Discuss the uncertainty in this knowledge. Construct a rule base representing this
uncertain knowledge. Run test cases.