AP Statistics Syllabus: Course Description: From the College Board: The purpose of the AP course in statistics is to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns 2. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study 3. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation 4. Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Students who successfully complete the course and exam may receive credit, advanced placement, or both for a onesemester introductory college statistics course. Instructor Remarks: In addition to the course description offered by the College Board, you can expect to be challenged to think about Mathematics in a new way. Although theory is an important part of Statistics, the heart of what you will be expected to do this year, will be application of theory. You are expected to be an active participant in the learning process which can include lectures, discussions, presentations, guest speakers, and field trips. The course will integrate the TI-84 Calculator and Computer Programs such as Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Word extensively. Additionally, successful completion of the course will involve extensive reading and writing activities, many of which will need to be completed outside of the traditional school day. These reading and writing activities will be drawn from a number of resources such as scientific journals, online reports, news articles, etc. As you can well imagine, understanding vocabulary and using the new vocabulary in your course communication is essential. Evaluation/Assessment/Grading: Grading System: The course will use the school’s grading weighting system for AP Classes. Additionally, all practice Free Response Questions (FRQs) will be graded using the College Board’s AP Statistics Rubric (pages 29 and 30 of the AP Statistics Course Description). The formulas and charts (pages 13 through 19 of the AP Statistics Course Description) provided by the College Board for the exam can and should be used for every exam and lab. Description: Assessments (Tests, Quizzes, Labs) Homework (Including Reading Guides) Percentage: 90% 10% Laboratory Assignments: “Labs” will be an essential part of your learning for the course and will be weighted as such. When completing the labs, please remember that although the lab is meant as either an opportunity for you to discover or demonstrate competency with a new concept, you can and should relate the lab to previously learned materials. Proper grammar, spelling, and acceptable formatting are expected. “Labs” will often be holistic in nature. This means that you will have an opportunity to show competency in all aspects of the course: 1. An experiment, observation, study, survey, etc. will need to be designed and executed in a manner to minimize bias. 2. Information from a sample will be collected through techniques such as observation, simulation, experimentation, etc. 3. Data will be summarized graphically, symbolically, and with the written word using formal statistic vocabulary. 4. Inferential Statistics will be used to draw conclusions on a population when information is collected from a sample. 5. Conclusions will be written in a manner to demonstrate an understanding of the topic explored in the lab, including derivations from expected results. It is the expectation of the instructor that the quality of graded work increases as the course progresses as more statistical techniques become available to you. Reading Guides: Reading guides are extended homework assignments which allow you to preview the course material before the teacher lectures or demonstrate the material. It is essential that the guides are completed before we work on the material in class. The guides will also list the expected homework problems and other resources to enhance your understanding of the material. It is expected that you do your homework problems in the space provided on the study guide, thereby allowing you to have a great review resource as we approach the test in May. Textbooks/Online Resources: Primary Textbook and Resources: 1. Starnes, Daren S., Daniel S. Yates, and David S. Moore. The Practice of Statistics. New York: W.H. Freeman, 2012. Print. 2. "Against All Odds: Inside Statistics." Against All Odds: Inside Statistics. Annenberg Media, 2009. Web. 25 May 2010. <http://www.learner.org/resources/series65.html>. Secondary Textbooks/Resources: 1. Sternstein, Martin. Barron's AP Statistics. Barrons Educational Series Inc, 2012. Print. 2. "Advanced Placement Statistics Exam." StatTrek. StatTrek.com, 2009. Web. 25 May 2010. <http://www.stattrek.com/AP/Overview.aspx>. Course Sequence: (Labs are subject to change) Unit Name and Number: Important Topics: Chapter 1 Exploring Data Analyzing Categorical Data Displaying Quantitative Data with Graphs Describing Quantitative Data with Numbers Describing Location in a Distribution Normal Distributions Chapter 2 Modeling Distributions of Data Chapter 3 Describing Scatterplots and Correlation Relationships Least-Squares Regression Chapter 4 Designing Sampling and Surveys Studies Experiments Using Studies Wisely Chapter 5 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation Probability Probability Rules Conditional Probability and Independence Chapter 6 Random Discrete and Continuous Random Variables Variables Transforming and Combining Random Variables Binomial and Geometric Random Variables Chapter 7 Sampling What Is a Sampling Distribution Distributions Sample Proportions Sample Means Chapter 8 Confidence Intervals: The Basics Estimating with Estimating a Population Proportion Confidence Estimating a Population Mean Chapter 9 Testing a Significance Tests: The Basics Claim Tests about a Population Proportion Tests about a Population Mean Approximate Common Assessment Name Number of and Title: Days: 12 Unit Test 15 Unit Test/Sports Statistics Lab (Chapters 1 and 2) 13 Unit Test/Vietnam Lab 19 Unit Test/Energy Drink Lab 17 Unit Test/Counting Rules Lab 13 Unit Test 8 Unit Test/Simulation Labs 10 Unit Test/Confidence Intervals through Simulation Lab 10 Unit Test/Benford's Law Lab Chapter 10 Comparing Two Populations or Groups Chapter 11 Inference for Distributions of Categorical Data Chapter 12 More about Regression Review for Exam Comparing Two Proportions Comparing Two Means 9 Unit Test/Shopping Labs Chi-Square Goodness-of Fit Tests Inferences for Relationships 8 Unit Test Inference for Linear Regression Transforming to Achieve Linearity 5 Unit Test 10 Daily Quizzes AP Stat Topic Outline Theme: Theme 1: Exploring Data: Describing Patterns and Departures from Patterns (20-30% of Exam) Overview: Statistics is the science of finding patterns in data. Often this data needs to be organized and/or summarized before any sense can be made of it. We can organize data simply by putting it in order from least to greatest. More often it makes sense to display it graphically or to summarize it by stating its "measures of center". Centers don't always tell the whole story, so measures of dispersion or rank can be used as well. Graphical displays, measures of center, and measures of dispersion can also be used to compare and contrast multiple data sets. Additionally, bivariate data can be examined on the Cartesian Coordinate plane to look for correlation; however, it is important to keep in mind, that correlation is not equivalent to causation. What will I Learn About? Book Sections A. Constructing and interpreting graphical displays of distributions of Univariate data (dotplot, stem plot, histogram, cumulative frequency plot) 1. Center and Spread 1.2 2. Clusters and Gaps 3. Outliers and Unusual Features 4. Shape 1.2 1.2 B. Summarizing Distributions of Univariate Data 1. Measuring Center: Median, Mean 2. Measuring Spread: Range, IQR, Standard Deviation 3. Measuring Position: Quartiles, Percentiles, Z-Scores 4. Using Boxplots 5. The Effect of Changing Units on Summary Measures 1.3 1. Comparing Center and Spread 1.2,1.3 2. Comparing Clusters and Gaps 3. Comparing Outliers and Unusual Features 1.2,1.3 4. Comparing Shape 1.2,1.3 1. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots 2. Correlation and linearity 3. Least-squares regression line 4. Residual plots, outliers, and influential points 5. Transformations to achieve linearity 3.1 1. Frequency tables and bar charts 2. Marginal and joint frequencies for twoway tables 1.1 C. Comparing Distributions of Univariate Data (dotplots, back-to-back stemplots, parallel boxplots) D. Exploring Bivariate Data E. Exploring Categorical Data 1.2 1.3 Technology Competencies Excel: Mean, Median, Mode, Histograms, Sorted Data TI89: Means, Medians, Modes, Sorted Data, Histograms Excel: Measures of Spreads (all) TI84: Measures of Spreads (all), Boxplots 1.3, 2.1 1.3 2.1 1.2,1.3 3.1 Excel: Linear Regression Skills TI84: Linear Regression Skills 3.2 3.2 12.2 1.1, 5.2 Excel: Bar Charts Theme 2: Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and Conducting a Study (10-15%) Overview: Data needs to be produced before it is analyzed. Data can be produced from a number of different methods including censuses, surveys, experiments, and studies. We can look at either the population information or information from a well chosen sample (one that makes every attempt to remove bias). Proper techniques must be used in order to prevent criticism of research methods and to increase reliability and validity of results. 3. Conditional relative frequencies and associations 4. Comparing distributions using bar charts 5.3 A. Overview of Methods of Data Collection 1. Census 4.1 2. Sample Survey 3. Experiment 4. Observational Study 4.1 4.2 4.2 B. Planning and Conducting Surveys 1. Characteristics of a well-designed and wellconducted survey 2. Populations, samples, and random selection 4.1 3. Sources of bias in sampling and surveys 4.1 4. Sampling methods, including SRS, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling C. Planning and 1. Characteristics of a Conducting Experiments well-designed and wellconducted experiment 2. Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignments, and replication 3. Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding 4. Completey randomized design 5. Randomized block design, including matched pair design D. Generalizability of Results and Types of Conclusions that can be drawn from Observational Stuides, Experiments, and Surveys 1.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 Excel: Random Number Generator TI84: Random Number Generator Theme 3: Anticipating Patterns: Exploring Random Phenomena Using Probability and Simulation (20-30%) A. Probability Overview: Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of random phenomena. Statisticians have a number of methods of assigning probability to events and the haphazard occurrence of events tend to disappear as we look at a large number of occurrences. The results of the large number phenomena, whether observed or theoretical, can be summarized in probability distributions of data. From these distributions, it is important to know how to find simple and compound probabilities, expected B. Combining values, and standard Independent Random deviations. Variables C. The Normal Distribution D. Sampling Distributions 1. Interpreting probability including long-run relative frequency interpretation 2. Law of Large Numbers 3. Addition Rule, Multiplication Rule, Conditional Probability and Independence 4. Discrete Random Variables and their Probability Distributions, including Binomial and Geometric 5. Simulation of Random Behavior and Probability Distributions 6. Mean (Expected Value) and Standard Deviation of a Random variable, and Linear Transformation of a Random Variable 5.1 1. Notion of Independence vs. Dependence 2. Mean and Standard Deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables 6.2 5.2, 5.3 6.1, 6.3, 5.1 TI84: Binomial and Discrete Distributions Simple Probabilities, Compound Probabilities, Expected Value, Standard Deviation 5.1 6.1, 6.2 6.2 2.2 1. Properties of the Normal Distribution 2.2 2. Using Tables of the Normal Distribution 2.2 3. Normal Distribution as a Model for Measurements Chapter 7, 8.3, 10.1, 10.2, 11.1 1. Sampling distribution of a sample proportion 7.3 Excel: Normal Distribution, Inverse of Normal Distribution TI84: Normal Distribution Commands Excel: Sampling Distributions Theme 4: Statistical Inference: Estimating Population Parameters and Testing Hypotheses (3040%) Overview: Statistical inference is the process of making conclusions using data that is subject to random variation, for example, observational errors or sampling variation. Point estimation and confidence intervals are used to estimate population parameters when only sample statistics are available. Hypothesis testing is used to determine when the differences between information observed from a sample and the information from the population are unlikely to have occurred due to chance. A. Estimation (Point Estimators and Confidence Intervals) 2. Sampling distribution of a sample mean 7.3 3. Central Limit Theorem 4. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample proportions 5. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample means 6. Simulation of sampling distributions 7. t distribution 8. Chi-square distribution 10.1 1. Estimating population parameters and margins of error 2. Properties of point estimators, including unbiasedness and variability 3. Logic of confidence intervals, meaning of confidence level and confidence intervals, and properties of confidence interval 4. Large-sample confidence interval for a proportion 5. Large-sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions 6. Confidence interval for a mean 7. Confidence interval for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired). 8. Confidence Interval for the slope of a leastsquares regression line Commands TI84: Sampling Distribution Menus, T Distribution, Chi-Square 10.2 7.1 8.3 11.1 Chapter 8, 9.3, 10.1, 10.2, 12.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 10.1 8.3 8.3,10.2 12.1 Chapters 9, 11, 10.1, Excel: Error Estimates TI84: Confidence Interval Menus 10.2, 12.1 B. Tests of Significance 1. Logic of significance testing, null and alternate hypothesis, Pvalues, one-and-twosided tests; concepts of Type I and Type II errors; concept of power 2. Large-sample test for a proportion 3. Large-sample test for a difference between two proportions 4. Test for a mean 5. Test for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired). 6. Chi-square test for goodness of fit, homogeneity of proportions, and independence (oneand-two way tables) 7. Test for the slope of a least-squares regression line 9.2 10.1 9.3 9.3, 10.2 Chapter 11 12.1 Excel: Significance Tests through Data Analysis TI84: Significance Test Menu