3/6/15 Solar Market Pathways Kickoff meeting notes:
Intro (David Hill):
 Intro to Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative
 Intro to Solar Market Pathways and our award, with subrecipients Department of Public Service
and RAP
 Overarching questions of the project:
o What would it take for VT to become a high saturation solar market?
o How does solar fit into our greenhouse gas emissions targets and comprehensive
energy goals?
o How does that translate to immediate action on in towns and communities?
 Project will engage stakeholders, conduct scenario modeling, collect feedback on modeling,
and refine models, identifying key opportunities and barriers for high market saturation.
Findings will be presented to the Public Service Board, Department, and Legislature and there
will be a public report.
Questions/Comments:
 Brief background on solar in VT: Solar in VT started at ~21¢, now ~11¢. Other large scale solar
gets 6¢.
 VT's largest projects (2MW) going in around 11 or 12 cents. 19-20 cents at the most (net
metering projects).
 How does this interact with boards workshop about net metering
o This is complimentary, not duplicative or conflicting, process. Our goal is not to do
detailed program design in each focus area. We want to illustrate viable futures of
what may go on in each of these focus areas. Ideally these markets enable more
solar and are being driven by the availability of more solar.
 Will the plan incorporate biomass and fuel switching?
o The LEAP model will include all types of energy supply.
 Are we considering workers’ rights and safety when we look at soft costs?
o This is not an existing focus area, but if it is important to the stakeholders it should
be addressed.
 How does this align with other goals and milestones set regarding similar topics throughout the
state? For example, EAN has set out decade milestones. RPCs have goals, other regional energy
planning exists.
o We intend to create an array of scenarios reflecting the energy future in VT. While
every step may not agree with other goals set throughout the state, we intend to
provide consistency with those goals, particularly the final end goals. We try to stay
consistent with the CEP. This project specifically is meant to look at what happens if
we have more than a gigawatt of solar in the next 10 years. That might not be a goal
of other plans.
 VT peak load is ~1GW. Are we looking for a nameplate rating of solar to meet VT’s peak load?
o We are looking on a total energy basis, not just electric and not just nameplate capacity.
LEAP Intro (Damon Lane):
This 3 year project will use stakeholder input to create and revise scenario modeling and plan writing.
The focus of each year will be modeling, the report, and implementation respectively. The LEAP model
balances supply and demand and each side can be as simple as one total, or as detailed as necessary.
The team will have initial scenarios for the next meeting. We will take input at the meeting for the
creation of the alpha scenario which we intend to have completed by May 19th.
Questions/Comments:
 The Total Energy Study completed a similar study with a different model, producing outputs
which fed into REMI. Do we anticipate linking to REMI?
o Will consider the link, but may not achieve REMI connection.
 Translating outputs into inputs for REMI was difficult.
o REMI is not in our scope. We are ensuring the Total Energy Study is not repeated.
There are some issues with using FACETS for our study, such as the least cost
optimization study.
o Reminder that study come out with the answer that goals are achievable and
affordable. Working toward those goals is less costly than not. We will focus on
getting more solar sooner.
 What will the scenarios cover?
o CEP is one scenario, 20% solar is another.
o Will visualize where solar will go and at what scale.
o Overall, LEAP is an accounting system which can review demand and growth, supply
side resources, etc. We will be consistent with the CEP goal of 90% renewable by
2050.
o Inputs will be based on information from the stakeholder group.
Institute for Sustainable Communities Update (Deb Perry):






ISC has 11 offices, home to a staff between 80 and 90 people. ISC has managed 99 projects
in 30 countries spanning topics including Energy, Waste Management, Sustainable
Transportation, Clean Energy, and Green Jobs
In past 6 years, more active in US - served about 500 communities
ISC is 1 of 15 SunShot awardees looking to drive down soft costs, their project is unique –
the National Coordinator of the other 14 projects.
ISC will collect best practices and strategies of awardees and disseminate widely
SunShot projects cover wide range of regional or state projects to very specific strategies.
ISC hopes to coordinate and help awardees learn from each other. Project examples include:
o
o
o

PACE Energy and Climate Center - working to harmonize the solar market in the
Northeast
SEPA (Solar Energy Power Association) - specifically focusing on community solar
scales - producing a set of models based on consumer research –
City University of New York - Researching how to integrate solar with resiliency with
a focus on lessons learned from Sandy
Methods for coordinating awardees include a website, in-person workshops and meetings,
and affinity groups (topic area focuses).

Their team includes the Rocky Mountain Institute and RAP
Focus Areas:
Incentives (Suzanne Elowson):
 There are other levers besides cash in hand incentives that allow people to move toward
solar.
 The Federal Tax Credit (ITC) expires in 2016.
Questions/Comments:
 The solar adder is a big issue in VT, as is land use for placing solar. Both interact with the
grid.
 Need to clarify incentives and financing for whole-building approaches, retrofits, etc.
o Especially whole building retrofit approaches
o Financing tools (no $ down, cash flow positive)
o What is the bridge from now (2016 ITC expiration) to 2025?
 Social equity concern for those who can’t use federal tax credit
 Hard for small local companies being approach for Power Purchase Agreement. Want to
keep $ local, access local financing.
 Need to address different costs for different funding approaches, including CEDA in the MidAtlantic, PBI in NY, etc.
 Need to add wholesale cost perspective and add wholesale market experience to the team.
 Need to include legislature as stakeholders, provide specific messaging and framing
particularly as it relates to regulating utilities.
Net metering (Carl):
 What combination of solation installation makes sense for VT (20%) given where we are
now and our options for transitioning?
o Customer sited
o Utility scale
o Community solar
o How much in each bucket/tranche?
 And, what rates to achieve from that decision?
 Will define guidelines and principles for good tariff design
o Will depend on the needs of the utility system, and what value solar brings relative
to those needs
 Looking at alternatives
o 2 way distribution
o Tariffs as complement to net metering
Questions/Comments:
 How does this intersect w/Act 99 net metering hearings? Or in January 16 (Legislature acts
on Act 99 info)
o DPS is looking to close the comment period at the end of May, and issuing draft
rules by the beginning of summer - this will be the law of the land and set in stone
for 2017-2020.
o SMP can provide input to legislature’s review of PSB process in January.
 Broader tariff issues exist with high penetrations of solar. If there are broad rate design
issues, broad tariff (not specifically for distributed generation) redesign could put everyone
on the same rate, could facilitate or create barriers to deployment.
EV (Dave Roberts)
 Light duty and heavy duty vehicles (LDV and HDV) account for 50% of GHG emissions and
10-20% of total energy use in VT. This project will focus on LDV because of lack of HDV
alternatives.
 Given that VT average Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 11-12k miles/person/year, focus group
will integrate land use and transportation ideas.
 Group could target market segments and market uptake strategies (leasing, etc.)
 Potential to work with auto dealers to educate sales staff, use marketing expertise.
 For model, consider many levers:
o Rate of adoption
o Fleet turnover
o Economic levers
 Energy Savings
Questions/Comments:
 Understand impact of charging infrastructure and increased demand on grid
 How does this interact with CNG and LNG as alternative vehicle fuel?
 Note that VLITE incentive expired, no state funds exist for incentives.
Heat Pumps (Peter Schneider)
 Focus group will consider new technologies, load curves, trends, electric heating, and
DR/remote response opportunities.
Questions/Comments:
 Can’t ignore shell improvements as customers shift to mini-splits
 Understand solar as a key piece of DR concerns as heat pump use grows.
 Concern that the efficiency of the product drops when electricity is the most expensive (very
cold weather).
o


Look at 80 questions in recent PSB process, as efficiency falls off at times wholesale
markets are strained
There is concern that advertised savings are over inflated. There is a need independent info
on true costs to consumer
Note that when looking at scenarios and modeling - the big difference is between space
heating and central heating systems. Heat pumps are space heaters, not central heating
systems.
HP modular housing (Peter Schneider)
 Many homes build requiring only one heating system
 Last year, 20 Vermod homes were installed
 20% of housing stock carries a HUD label
 How can we work with other manufacturers to increase production? How do we work with
communities with varying permit structures to increase uptake?
 What does uptake look like? What does associated load curve look like when solar offsets
winter heating to obtain net zero?
Questions/Comments:
 The key issue for HP Modular housing is upfront costs. Should continue to work on on-bill
financing over 30 yrs (mortgages vs chattel loans).
Smartgrid/DR (Ethan Goldman)
 Understanding the smart grid means understanding information flows related to DR storage,
load shifts, etc. Depends upon communication standards to some extent.
 Update on the state of the smart grid: VT has 90% penetration of smart meters which
communicate in ~15 minute intervals. Potential exists to communicate rates back to the
meters from the utility, however, no way in place for customers to get data from the meter.
Ideally, the meters would provide more fine-grained data for managing loads.
 Systems for pairing devices to meters are also underdeveloped.
 Some customers still concerned about opt-out opportunity and security.
 ISO NE rule change allows wholesale energy prices to go negative
o If storage allows us to sell solar to the grid after dark, value proposition of solar
increases. At times we can get $.42/kwh
 Modeling should include grid balancing services and frequency regulation
Storage (Damon Lane/Nick Lange)
 Vital to the solar picture. Even a few hours of storage can change the value and reliability of
solar.
 There is a presumption that we need better distribution centers as distributed generation
increases. Who is paying for this 21st century grid?
 How much storage do we need? What are the different elements?
o
These questions will be addressed in later runs of the model, after the baseline
is established.
Closing



Thank you for good attendance, interest, and a great start to the discussion
David reiterates that groups will work together and there will be close communication.
Might have some groups meet together.
Reminder: March 24th, 6-8pm, room 11, solar siting public hearing at state house. Senator
Bray wants to reassure people they are planning on taking public testimony on this issue.
Room 11 at state house - press release will be going out next week.