The potential of primary forest residues as a bioenergy source: the technical and environmental constraints Author: Fanny Boeraeve Examiner: Dr. Birka Wicke Daily supervisor: M.Sc. Vasileios Daioglou Second reviewer: Dr. Pita Verweij 20-12-2012 Master’s Thesis | 7.5 ECTS | Ecology & Natural Resources 0 Management | Environmental Biology | Utrecht University - Utrecht University - The potential of primary forestry residues as a bioenergy source: the technical and environmental constraints Master’s Thesis: 7.5 ECTS Utrecht, December 20th 2012 Fanny Boeraeve (student number: 3803821) M.Sc. student Environmental Biology Track ‘Ecology and Natural Resources Management’ Supervison: Examiner: Dr. Birka Wicke - Copernicus Institute, Energy and Resources Daily supervisor: M.Sc Vasileios Daioglou - Copernicus Institute, Energy and Resources Second reviewer: Dr. Pita Verweij - Copernicus Institute, Energy and Resources Cover Photo: Martin Gebala, stock.xchng (EEA 2006) 1 Table of contents: - Chapter 1 - ................................................................................................................................3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................3 - Chapter 2 - ................................................................................................................................6 Estimations of forestry residues potential ..................................................................................6 1. Selection of studies .................................................................................................................6 2. Definitions ..........................................................................................................................7 2.2. Definition of forestry residues ....................................................................................7 2.3. The potential definition ..............................................................................................8 3. Geographical scale..............................................................................................................9 4. Methods and calculations .................................................................................................10 4.1. Methodologies ..........................................................................................................10 4.2. The factors influencing the estimate .........................................................................18 4.2.1. The methods complexity level ................................................................................18 4.2.2. The underlying databases .......................................................................................18 4.2.3. Assumptions ...........................................................................................................20 5. Summary and conclusion .................................................................................................22 - Chapter 3 - ..............................................................................................................................25 Sustainability of the removal of forestry residues ....................................................................25 1. Soil erosion .......................................................................................................................25 2. Nitrogen balance...............................................................................................................26 3. Carbon storage ..................................................................................................................27 4. Biodiversity ......................................................................................................................28 5. Summary and interrelation of the processes .....................................................................30 6. Recommended sustainable residues extraction ................................................................31 6.2. Current uncertainties ................................................................................................31 6.2. Recommended harvest restrictions ...........................................................................31 6.3. Management recommendations ................................................................................32 - Chapter 4- ...............................................................................................................................33 Conclusions and recommendations ..........................................................................................33 1. Research questions and related hypotheses ......................................................................33 2. Recommendations ............................................................................................................35 2.1. Residue extraction recommendations .......................................................................35 2.2. Further research needed ............................................................................................36 2.3. Study limitation ........................................................................................................37 References ................................................................................................................................38 Appendices ...............................................................................................................................43 2 - Chapter 1 Introduction Climate change, mainly resulting from the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration is threatening the world in many aspects. The rise of global temperature is affecting numerous species communities which see their habitat altered and their phenology disturbed. Meteorological hazards are happening more frequently and more severely than ever recorded, menacing many human populations (IPCC 2007). Human dependence on fossil fuels contributes to this by releasing large amount of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere (Asikainen et al. 2008, IPCC 2007). In a world of increasing energy demand, facing the consequences of the use of fossil fuels and its finite supply, the world’s population is challenged to find alternative energy sources (Schulze et al. 2012). In this context, renewable energies represent an interesting option as they avoid greenhouse gas emissions and show an infinite supply (EEA 2006). The implementation of renewable energies has been considerably deployed in recent years and has been encouraged by several governmental policies. For instance, European countries are mandated to rely 20% of their energy sources on renewable energy (European Union 2009) and the U.S.A. are following some strict guidelines under the ‘American Clean Energy & Security Act’ (2009). The spectrum of renewable energy sources is wide including sources such as sun, wind, water or biomass. Among them, biomass currently represent the largest resource of renewable energy. Biomass can be obtained from a variety of feedstock like forests residues, agricultural residues, energy crops or organic wastes (IPCC 2012). Because forest resources are excepted to increase (Asikainen et al. 2008, Poudel et al. 2012, EEA 2006), forestry residues are among the bioenergy sources showing prospects for providing a future substantial share of the global biomass supply (Bentsen and Felby 2012, IPCC 2012). Forestry residues are conventionally divided into three categories. Primary forest residues consist of residues gathered from silvicultural activities such as tree thinning or logging. Secondary residues include sawdust, barks, chips, etc. resulting from the wood industry. The third group, referred to as ‘tertiary residues’ represent the used wood from constructions, demolition or packaging (Röser et al. 2008, U.S. Department of Energy 2011). In particular, primary residues have been gaining growing popularity after many studies proving their large potential as a bioenergy source (EEA 2006, Greg and Smith 2010, Dymond et al. 2010). They have already become an important fuel source in northern countries such as Sweden and Finland (Röser et al. 2008). However, uncertainties remain about the estimation of primary forestry residues’ potential as an energy source (IPCC 2012). In the current body of literature, estimates of harvesting residues potential vary widely (Dymond et al.2010, Bentsen and Felby 2012). Studies assessing the potential of biomass resources rely on distinct methodologies and definitions leading to a broad spectrum of estimated values of the available biomass for bioenergy. Some reviews point to the wide range of estimations (Bentsen and Felby 2012, Rettenmaier 2010, Offerman 2010) but few attempt to find explanations of these differences. The lack of accurate estimations of the potential hampers the implementation of clear policies (Bentsen 3 and Felby 2012, Dymond et al.2010, Rosillo-Calle et al. 2007) and understanding the reasons in the discrepancies of the estimates is of primary concern. Besides the lack of clear potential assessment strategies, the bioenergy production from primary forestry residues is constrained by environmental limitations (Poudel 2012, EEA 2006). Indeed, an overexploitation of forest residues could lead to soil impoverishment and degradation which could be highly harmful to the environment and which could in turn affect further biomass extraction and bioenergy production (Rettenmaier 2010). However, little knowledge is shared on the extent of these collateral damages (IPCC 2012). Because the use of forestry residues as an energy source is believed to increase rapidly in the coming decades (Asikainen 2008), the possible environmental damages that could result from this increase are to be addressed urgently. The present report approaches these two issues by means of a literature review addressing the following research questions. How do distinct methods influence the estimation of primary forestry residues potential as a bioenergy source? Related hypothesis: o If the definition of the ‘forestry residues’ differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. o If the definition of the ‘potential’ differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. o If the geographical scope considered for the assessment of the potential differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. o If the methods and calculations to estimate the potential differ from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. What are the environmental impacts generated by the extraction of forestry residues for their conversion into bioenergy? Related hypotheses: o If forestry residues play an important role in preventing soil erosion, their extraction could lead to increased soil erosion. o If forestry residues play an important role in the forest nutrient cycling, their extraction for the use of bioenergy could endanger the ecosystem nitrogen equilibrium. o If forestry residues play an important role in the forest’s carbon pool, their extraction for the use of bioenergy could lead to a global loss of carbon stock. o If forestry residues provide habitat to some forest species (especially micro fauna), their extraction for the use of bioenergy could threaten those species. With the intention of answering the aforementioned questions and hypotheses, the report is structured under chapters following the two research questions. In the second chapter, the first research question is addressed by comparing studies according to three factors believed to play a role in the variation of estimations: (i) the geographical scale considered by the author, (ii) the definitions of the ‘potential’ and of ‘forestry residues’ and (iii) the methods used to calculate the potential. These three factors are believed to be the major causes of the 4 various potential estimations available in the literature (Bentsen and Felby 2012, Rettenmaier 2010). In the third chapter, the second research question regarding the sustainability of residues harvesting is addressed with a specific focus on soil erosion, biodiversity, carbon stocks and dynamics and nutrients productivity. The risks engendered by the removal of residues are investigated for each of these factors and values of sustainable amount of removal suggested in the literature are presented. In a fourth chapter, the research questions are answered, the hypothesis are verified and some general conclusions and recommendations are made. Throughout the whole report, the focus is on primary forestry residues only, i.e. residues from logging and, to a lesser extent, from thinning activities, as suggested by the definition of Röser et al. 2008. The first chapter is mainly focused on a European scale while the second chapter is applicable to a global scale as well as to more regional ones. 5 - Chapter 2 Estimations of forestry residues potential This chapter is dedicated to the first research question. Four studies have been selected and are compared according to three factors believed to be the major causes of the various potential estimations: (i) the geographical scale considered by the author, (ii) the definitions of the ‘potential’ and of ‘forestry residues’ and (iii) the methods used to calculate the potential. In a concluding section, the differences are summarised and the importance of each factor is discussed. 1. Selection of studies In order to have comparable studies, only assessments of European potentials were taken into account. Moreover, only studies estimating the theoretical and the technical potentials and using a resource-base approach were chosen. The focus is of this report is on current assessment rather than on studies assessing future potentials. Within the studies fitting those criteria, four have been selected because they represent a wide range of estimates and because they rely on distinct methodologies allowing interesting comparison. The study of Böttcher et al. (2010) is of specific interest because it relies on the recommended standardised method from the handbook of Vis et al. (2010). This handbook is the result of a several studies carried out by ‘Biomass Energy Europe’ which have compared many European assessments and thereof provides the best practices for the estimation of biomass potentials (Vis et al. 2010). This handbook recommends two types of methodologies: one statically-based and one spatially-based. In the study of Böttcher et al. (2010), these two methodologies lead to significant different estimations (Table 1). The study of Verkerk et al. (2011) shows the interesting trait to rely on a model suggested by the ‘European Forest Institute’ which has been utilized by several studies. For instance, the report of Mantau et al. (2010), the official report of the European Commission to assess the potential of forests, relies as well on this model. Incorporating a study based on this method will thus give insights into the assessment provided by a widely used methodology. The two last studies, of Asikainen et al. (2008) and Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) were chosen because being recent and comparable with the two previous ones in terms of geographical scope and assessment goals. Table 1 provides the overview of the estimations the four studies provide. The conversion into PJ/year has been done using the conversion factors supplied in Appendix 1. The spread of the estimations is already striking. 6 Table 1: Summary of estimations of potential for forestry residues as bioernergy source available in the current literature Potential in PJ/yr Reference Asikainen et al. 2008 Verkerk et al. 2011 Bottcher et al. 2010 (statistical) Bottcher et al. 2010 (spatial) Ericsson and Nilsson 2006 theoretical technical 2527.2 2390.544 3229 550.8 720 1186 621.29 590 1170 Ratio techn/th 22% 30% 37% 50% 2. Definitions 2.2. Definition of forestry residues The definition of forestry residues represents the basis of the study of their potential, yet no consensus exists on a common terminology (Bentsen and Felby 2012, Röser et al.2008). This small survey illustrates how much the definitions of forestry residues vary (Table 2). From one study to another, different tree component are included under the term “forestry residues”. Branches and tree tops seem to be commonly included into the potential. This is probably because of their large amount left on site after harvesting while being of negligible value for the timber industry, hence representing a considerable value for the bioenergy industry (Dymond et al. 2010). The other tree components represent a less obvious value as a bioenergy source because being less abundant and being sometimes restricted by harvest or implementation issues. For instance, due to the scattered distribution and the small size of needles and leaves, these may prove to be difficult to harvest. The removal of stumps involves their extraction out of the ground which requires supplementary machinery and leads to soil disturbance (EEA 2006). The harvesting of undergrowth tree unsuitable for the timber industry requires their identification and their location ahead of the harvesting. A precommercial thinning, if not already implemented, is often complicated to put in practice (Verkerk et al. 2011b). Complementary felling is defined by the additional felling assumed to be available when the net annual increment is higher than the harvest. From this estimation, the percentage of corresponding residues is estimated using allocation factor. The incorporation of these extra elements into the assessment of forestry residues potential depends on the authors assumptions and decisions and will thus always vary from one study to another. The intensity with which the extra components taken into account can influence the potential estimation depends on the amount of potential energy these elements add to the estimation. It is likely that including complementary felling, early thinning and undergrowth trees will affect more seriously the estimate than the extra energy from leaves and stumps. Indeed, previous studies have shown that early thinning could bring an equal amount of biomass than residues from logging activities (U.S. Department of Energy 2011) while Böttcher et al (2010) state that the harvesting of stumps is negligible in most European countries. Taking this into account, Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) including both undergrowth trees and early thinning are expected to show a higher estimation while Verkek et al. 2011, only including leaves and needles is predicted to have a lower estimation. Indeed, the estimation of Verkerk 7 et al. 2011 is among the lowest ones, however, the estimation of Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) is even lower (Table 1). In overall, it is assumed that the amount of biomass considered under the term ‘residues’ increases from Verkerk, Asikainen, Böttcher to Ericsson and Nilsson, however, this is not represented in the estimations, pointing to the importance of other factors influencing the assessed values. In this review, only the elements referred to as ‘residues’ were taken into account into the potential. Certain studies assess the potential of other elements that have not been indicated in the Table because being categorised as a separate source of biomass by the author. For instance, Asikainen et al.(2008) and Verkerk et al.(2011a) both assess the potential of stumps, but consider them separately from the ‘residues’. The way these elements of residues are assessed also vary from one study to another. Some have grouped all components together while others have calculated the potential separately for each. Böttcher et al.(2010) as calculated the sumps and the complementary felling apart from the branches, tree tops and leaves. Asikainen et al.(2008) has estimated a potential for each component separately, unlike Verkerk et al.(2011a) Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) who calculated everything together. Table 2: residues included under the term ‘forestry residues’. ‘Undergrowth trees’ refers to tree too small for commercial purposes, ‘early thinning’ refers to precommercial thinning and ‘complementary felling’ refers to extra felling assumed to be available when the net annual increment is higher than the harvest. Reference Asikainen et al.2008 Verkerk et al.2011a Böttcher et al.2010 Ericsson & Nilsson 2006 2.3. branches tree top x x x x x x x x needles/ leaves x x stumps undergr. early trees thinning Compl. felling x x x x x The potential definition The literature differentiates various types of potentials according the type of restrictions taken into account (Röser et al. 2008). That is to say, an economic potential includes economic constraints; a technical potential, the technical ones, etc. The classification vary form one author to another. For instance, Bentsen and Felby (2012) suggest a categorization with the hierarchy ‘theoretical>technical>economic>sustainable’ while the IPCC’s report (2012) suggests a three levels categorization including the theoretical, the technical and the economical potentials. Studies assessing different types of potential supply great differences in their potential estimates (Dymond et al.2010, Rettenmaier 2010). For this reason, the present work only includes two types of potential in order to allow comparison. The most widespread estimated types of potential have been chosen for this study, namely the theoretical and the technical potential. The theoretical potential refers to the maximum possible energy production from residues, not including any restrictions, whereas the technical potential refers to a more realistic estimation by including some technical restrictions (Bentsen and Felby 2012, IPCC 2012). However, even within one type of potential, definitions differ from one publication to another (Röser et al.2008, IPCC 2012) which is believed to contribute to distinct estimates (Rettenmaier et al.2010, Bentsen and Felby 2012). Among the four papers studied in this 8 research, the theoretical potential did not show distinct definition. The differences are more striking for the technical potentials (Table 3). Some authors include different aspects within the technical term such environmental and social ones. Moreover, each of these aspect is not addressed in the same way; various restrictions are applied even when referring to a similar aspect. Inevitably, the amount of restrictions taken into account influences the final estimation. Instinctively, it can be assumed that more restrictions are taken into account, the lower the potential estimation will tend to be. From this postulate, the four studies could be classified from the assumed lower estimate to the highest as follows: Verkerk, Böttcher, Asikainen, Ericsson. As for the definition of residues, the assumed classification does not match reality, underlying the existence of other factors influencing the potential estimations. In addition to including various aspects and restrictions, the studies vary between each other by the way they quantify the restrictions. One same restriction can lead to completely different results if calculated and estimated differently. The way these restrictions are implemented belongs to the methods used and is therefore discussed in section 2.4. which illustrate how importance this aspect is. Table 3: summary of the different aspects and restrictions included under the tern ‘technical potential’ in the four publications studied. Source Asikainen et al.2008 Aspect technical Verkerk et al.2011 technical environmental Böttcher et al.2010 social technical Ericsson & Nilsson 2006 environmental environmental sub-aspects site suitability to harvest recovery rate recovery rate soil bearing capacity soil productivity soil protection water protection biodiversity protection forest owneship harvesting technique infrastructure accessibility processing technique spatial confinement natural reserves soil productivity 3. Geographical scale Differences in the geographical scope impede reliable comparisons (Bentsen and Felby 2012). Even if the four studies considered all assess European potential, it is known that European level studies differ in the countries taking into account (Rettenmaier 2010). The studies reviewed in this research all include the EU27 as geographical scale with the exception of 9 Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) who include the EU 15, the ACC101, Belarus and Ukraine (Table 4). In other words, their study differs from the three others by including Belarus and Ukraine and excluding Cyprus and Malta. This results in a difference of forested area of 17 469 000 ha (FAO 2005) which is likely to affect the estimations. Despite this large spatial scale difference, the potential prediction of Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) is among the lower ones (Table 1). This points to the importance of other factors influencing the estimations which are discussed below. In the case of Ericsson and Nilsson (2006), it is expected that that these factors lead to a strong underestimation since their study supplied one of the lowest estimate despite including a much larger area. In general, studies related to European assessments are likely to differ mostly across the time scale in relation to the countries included in the European Union when the research is carried out. For instance, the present EU consists of 12 more countries than eight years ago. Hence, a research assessing the potential of the EU in 2004 is not comparable to a research done in 2012. Table 4: Geographical area considered Reference Asikainen et al.2008 Verkerk et al.2011a Böttcher et al.2010 Ericsson and Nilsson 2006 Geographical scope EU27 EU27 EU27 EU15+ ACC10 + Belarus and Ukraine 4. Methods and calculations In this section, a first part is devoted to the summaries of each of the methodologies used by the four studies and a second part focuses on the differences between the methodologies and on how these could affect the potential estimations. 4.1. Methodologies Asikainen et al.2008 The theoretical estimation of the forest residue potential was based on national round wood removal statistics from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (Appendix 2). From those national values, the share of biomass for residues was estimated from biomass ratio dependent on species groups (Table 5). The theoretical potential included an extra input of residues from annual growing stock surplus. This surplus is defined as the difference between net annual increment and fellings. 25% of the total annual change rate was estimated to be available for energy production. 1 The ACC10 consists of: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (Ericsson and Nilsson 2006). 10 Table 5: Proportion of biomass components used in the volume estimation of forest fuel potential. The components within the red frame are the components considered as ‘forestry residues’ by the author (Modified from Asikainen et al.2008). The technical potential was then calculated by applying restrictions the theoretical potential. It was assumed that 75% of the clear cut areas and 45% of the thinning areas were technically available for supply. Recovery rates were assumed to be 65% in mechanized cutting and 50% in manual cutting. The manual cutting was assumed to lead to lower recovery rate than mechanized cutting because it scatters the residues while mechanized cutting can involve the stacking of the residues. Just as the theoretical estimation, complementary felling was assumed to bring an extra residue income. 25% of the annual change rate surplus was assumed to be available. Verkerk et al.2011a Their estimation of maximum theoretical availability of forest residue biomass is based on a spatial approach using the European Forest Information SCENario model (EFISCEN) which simulates the global availability of the whole forest biomass (Figure1). The input data of this model consists of national forest inventories and is summarised in Appendix 4. The model is an area-based matrix model (van Brusselen 2012). A distinguish matrix is established for each country (Verkerk et al.2011a), hence, the ‘forest type’ from Figure 1, in this case refers to one country. Each matrix consists of 60 age classes and 10 volume classes (van Brusselen 2012) and this way describes the state of the forest over age and volume classes based on the data gathered (Verkerk et al.2011a). 11 Figure 1: EFISCEN matrix model used by Verkerk et al.2008 and Mantau 2010 to estimate forest biomass potential as energy source. In the case of Verkerk et al.(2008) data regarding the forest types were collected per region within each countries. Source: van Brusselen et al.2012. The following assumptions were included in the running of the model: Age-limits for thinning and final felling are based on conventional harvest management that can be found in the handbooks of Nabuurs et al.2007; The amount of harvest loss during felling was estimated from UNECE/FAO (2000) databases; The volume of residues was estimated from the stem wood volumes according to allocation factors previously suggested by Vilén et al.2005, Romano et al.2009, Mokany et al.2006 and Anderl et al.2009. To estimate the technical potential, the constraints were quantified and combined into a matrix layer. The resulting matrix layer was applied to a European forest map to calculate the restriction per country. Afterwards, the overall technical potential was assessed by combining the theoretical potential with the average reduction factor for each region. The constraints and their extraction rates are summarised in Table 6. Datasets about soil traits, slopes and protected areas required to implement the restrictions are listed in Appendix 5. Explanations regarding the constraints and why they are assumed to lower the potential are listed in Appendix 6. Only the constraint ‘private holding’ is explained here because of its less straightforward interpretation: this constraint results from the assumption that small privately owned forest are less likely to be harvested because of the high transaction costs the owner would have to bear. This assumption is associated with previous studied that showed that the size of forest holdings is positively correlated with wood harvesting. Data on size-classes of private forests was obtained from ‘Schmithüsen and Hirsch 2009’. 12 Table 6: Constraints applied by Verkerk et al. 2011 and the corresponding assumed restriction rates. Annoted ‘1’information is based on personal communication with Karl Stampfer. (modified from Verkerk et al. 2011). Type of constraint Site productivity Soil and water protection: Slope Restriction rate Not a constraining factor 67%on slopes up to 35%; 0% on slopes over 35%, unless cable-crane systems are used Soil and water protection: Soil depth 0% on Rendzina, Lithosol and Ranker (very low soil depth) Soil and water protection: Soil surface texture 0% on peatlands (Histosols) Soil and water protection: Soil compaction 0% on soils with very high compaction risk risk; 25% on soils with high compaction risk; not a constraining factor on other soils Biodiversity: protected forest areas 0%; not a constraining factor in areas with high or very high fire risk Recovery rate 67% on slopes up to 35%; 0% on slopes over 35%, but 67% if cable-crane systems are used (Cable cranes are applied in Austria, Italy, France, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania1) Soil bearing capacity 0% on Histosols, Fluvisols, Gleysols and Andosols Forest private holding Forest holdings < 1 ha: extraction rate of 50%; Forest holdings ≥ 5 ha: extraction rate of 85%; Forest holdings ≥ 80 ha: extraction rate of 96% Böttcher et al.2010 Böttcher et al.(2010) follows the methods suggested by the BEE handbook (Vis et al.2010) in which both a statistical and a spatially method are recommended. For each of these methods, the potential is first calculated per country before being summed up to get the European estimation. 1) Statistical approach The input data was gathered from national inventories provided by EUROSTAT, UNECE, FAO and from The Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE)(Table 7). The corresponding Tables are listed in the Appendices. 13 Table 7: Sources of the data used by Böttcher et al.(2010) for the estimation of the potentials (Böttcher et al.2010). The corresponding Tables are provided in the Appendices. The theoretical potential is calculated following the equations below. The theoretical potential of logging residues (Equation 1) and the theoretical potential of stumps (Equation 2) separately before being summed up (Equation 3). The potential of total logging residues depends on the industrial removals and potential of energy stemwood removals. Each of the factors of these equations have been calculated or measured by previous studies. The data used for each of these factors are listed under various Tables available in the Appendices and referred to in Table 7. (Equation 1) (Equation 2) (Equation 3) In these equations: i = tree species/tree species groups x= country x y = year y THP_LRx,y = theoretical potential of logging residues at maximum utilization rate (m3/year) IRWremi,x,,y = industrial roundwood removals (m3/year) THP_SWi,x,,y = theoretical stemwood potential (m3/year) Hlx,y = harvest losses BEFi,x,y = crown biomass expansion factor THP_Syx = theoretical potential of stumps for energy use (m3/year) BEFSi,x,y = stump biomass expansion factor (the factors usually range between 0.14-0.23 and do not include the stemwood) 14 NAIx,y = net annual increment of wood (m3) THP_PFRx,y = total theoretical potential of primary forestry residues (m3/year) In line with the reasoning for the theoretical potential, the technical potential consists of the sum of the technical potential of logging residues and the technical potential of stumps. The technical potential moreover includes reduction factors for different constraining criteria (RFc1,2,…for criteria 1,2, etc.) and recovery rates (RR and RS). The restriction factors, the recovery rates and other factors leading to further restrictions or surplus are listed, along with their quantifications in Table 8. (Equation 4) (Equation 5) (Equation 6) TCP_PFRx,y = TCP_LRx,y + TCP_Sx,y (Equation 7) In these equations: TCP_TLR = technical potential for total logging residues IRWremi,x,,y = industrial roundwood removals (m3/year) Hlx,y = harvest losses BEFi,x,y = crown biomass expansion factor TCP_SWx,y = technical stemwood potential for energy use (m3/year) TCP_LR x, y = technical potential of logging residues (m3/year) RFc1,2,…nx,y = reduction factors for different constraining criteria 1, 2,… RR = recovery rate of logging residues (0-1) RS = recovery rate of stumps (0-1) Table 8: Properties included in the theoretical potential estimation of Böttcher et al. (2010) and their corresponding quantifications and sources. Property Recovery rate of above ground forest residues Recovery rate of stumps Estimated rates Source 50% simplified from EEA 2007, Asikainen et al. 2008 20% (40% for Finland and Sweden) underestimation from Asikainen et al. 2008 with adjustement to silvicultural, harvesting practices and species distribution per country Surplus from complementary fellings (including stemwood and residues) Böttcher’s estimate, based on a guess with the idea that parts of the compl. felling will benefit the timber industry Restriction to ensure sustainability 70% (of total complementary fellings estimates) 5% Surplus from unrecorded harvest 5% Böttcher’s estimate, based on a guess Böttcher’s estimate, based on a guess willing to include stand biomass, dead wood, biodiversity and carbone stock increases 15 2) Spatially-explicit method The method consists of integrating a forest area map with the national inventories, the net annual increments, the biomass expansion factors and several constraints. The following datasets are being used: Forest map: o Forest/non-forest map 2000, aggregated to 1km resolution; (BEE data handbook) Soil maps: o European soil database, 1km resolution: soil type , soil depth, soil texture (BEE data handbook) o Map on soil susceptibility to compaction, rasterized to 1km resolution (BEE data handbook) Elevation: o GTOPO30 Digital elevation model – slope data, 1km resolution (BEE data handbook) Protected areas: o World Database of Protected Areas, rasterized to 1km resolutio n (http://www.wdpa.org/ ) o Nationally designated protected areas, rasterized to 1km resolution (European Environment Agency, http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps /data/nationally-designated-areas-national-cdda-4 ) o Natura 2000 EUNIS database, rasterized to 1km resolution (BEE data handbook) Forestry statistics: o MCPFE 2005 country-level statistics on forest area, net annual increment, biomass and annual fellings (BEE data handbook) o Compilation of NFI statistics on forest area and net annual increment at regional level from the national forest inventories of the different European countries Other: o Country-level data on biomass compartments as output from EFISCEN model (European Forest Institute, http://www.efi.int /portal/completed_projects/efiscen/) 1. European map of semwood and average net annual increments In this first step, a map of Europe based on remote sensing was first calibrated to forestry statistics and then multiplied with statistical data on net annual increment (NAI) per hectare. 2. Integration of harvesting constraints Constraints (Table 9) were integrated under a map which consisted of the representation of local extraction rates resulting from the combination of all constraints at 1km resolution. Constraint maps were created for stemwood, residues and stumps separetly. For area where no constraints were applied, the maximum extraction rate of forest residues was applied (65%). 3. Calculation of biomass expansion factors (BEFs) The calculation of BEFs was based on MCPFE and EFISCEN data. 16 4. Applying harvesting constraints and BEFs First, the constraint map for stemwood was multiplied with the map created in the first step to derive the amount of stemwood potentially available for sustainable harvest. Next, this map was multiplied with the calculated BEFs to calculate the associated biomass amount in residues. This last map was finally multiplied to the harvesting constraints map of residues, to derive the potentially available sustainable amount of biomass from forest residues. Table 9:constraints and extraction rates applied with underlying data sets Ericsson and Nilsson 2006 The straightforward assessment of Ericsson and Nilsson relies on forest biomass growth only including exploitable forests. Data were gathered from international statistics of the Temperate and Boreal Forest Resource Assessment (Appendix 7). The potential harvest of residues was deduced from a residue to stemwood ratio. This ratio was assumed to vary according to the tree species, tree type and tree age. No ratio’s list per species, tree type or tree age are available in the paper and the resulting assumed ratio is provided directly. For the calculation of the theoretical potential, ratios of 0.3 and an 0.2 were hypothesised for 17 coniferous and deciduous trees respectively. As for the technical potential, also including the constraint of nutrient depletion, ratios were presumed to be 0.15 and 0.1 respectively. Ericsson and Nilsson do not elaborate more on how they conclude such ratios. They only mention ‘Savolain and Berggren 2000’for the stemwood ratios but do not refer to other studies for the restriction from nutrient depletion. 4.2. The factors influencing the estimate This section attempts to evaluate the reasons of the different estimations in regards to the methodologies used (for simplification, the four studies will be referred to the names of their first author(s), avoiding the date and the conventional ‘et al’). Comparisons are made between the four studies, and when available, with other research from the literature. The previous section showed that methodologies differ in essence in many aspects. More specifically, these four research differ in complexity, in the use of various databases and in the assumptions made by the authors. These three main factors are discussed below. 4.2.1. The methods complexity level Some research show simple guidelines such as the ones of Ericsson and Asikaienen while the two others show more complex methodologies. Verkerk relies on a model including mortality, regeneration, growth and aging. Böttcher relies on complicated equations and on accurate mapping involving many constraints. The complexity of the estimation does not necessary mean that it is the most accurate. When requiring many data to fulfil each requirement one has often recourse to averages and default values when data is missing at the region or the country level. However, these proxies are frequently inaccurate (Vis et al 2010). Conversely, the present work showed that very simplistic methodologies could lead to inaccurate estimations. Ericsson and Nilsson’s estimation relies on a relatively randomly-set harvesting ratio that undeniably underestimate the potential since their study embrace a wider definition of residues (2.2.1), of geographical scope (2.3), includes fewer restrictions (2.2.2) but still shows the lowest estimate (Table 1). As a conclusion, it is likely that a good estimation will find a good balance between a not too complicated method in order to minimise the use of averages and default values and a not too simplistic method in order to avoid rough and non-representative assumptions. The decision about the level of details to incorporate in the estimation will also depend on the aim of the work. In general, policy makers tend to prefer simpler assessments whereas fundamental research will favour highly detailed data and methodologies (Rosillo-Calle et al. 2007). 4.2.2. The underlying databases Estimations can be based on distinct data which could lead to distinct estimates. First, it can be based either on the felling’s, on the stand biomass’ or on the NAI’s statistics. Böttcher (statistical) and Asikainen rely on felling statistics while the others rely on standing biomass statistics. However, Verkerk and Ericsson only consider forest available for wood supply therefore probably using input values close to the ones derived from felling statistics. This could not be verified since felling statistics are reported in volume (Mm3) and the standing biomass in area covered (1000 ha). It is acknowledged that felling statistics are often leading to underestimations as not all harvests are recorded (Böttcher et al. 2010). On his side, Böttcher (spatial) uses NAI’s statistics. This source of data represents a more accurate picture 18 of the current biomass state as it includes gross increments and natural losses and helps in establishing sustainable harvesting rates since fellings should not exceed the NAI (Böttcher et al. 2010). Furthermore, data referring to the same matter can still show substantial differences if being gathered from distinct databases. For instance, Verkerk and Ericsson both rely on standing biomass data but have gathered the information from distinct sources. Verkerk’s estimation depends on national inventories data while Ericsson’s estimation has leaned on international estimation form the Temperate and Boreal Forest Resource Assessment (TBFRA 2000) (Appendix 7). The difference between the two datasets is considerable in certain countries such as in Portugal Finland and Poland (Table 10). The difference for Portugal is particularly striking as Verkerk considers an area that is ten times larger than the area considered by Ericsson. Summing up all the countries’ areas, the total difference results in more than 17.000.000 ha proving how the use of distinct datasets can influence the estimations. The urgent need for harmonised European national inventories has already been mentioned in previous work (Vis et al. 2010). In this case, the data of Ericsson, shows the lowest area value therefore expected to give lower estimates. However, the two supplementary countries that are taken into account in their study should be considered: adding up the forested area from Belarus and Ukraine from the FAO (2005) database, the difference of 17.653.000 is lowered and results in a difference of 184.000 ha. To sum up, when referring to the FAO (2005) data the study of Ericsson shows an study area larger than the others of 17.469.000 ha (2.3), while when referring to the datasets used in the respective studies, Ericsson shows a study area smaller of 184.000 ha. This clearly underlines how the use of distinct datasets may affect the estimation of the potential. The reliability of the datasets is believed to be more accurate for the data of TBFRA (2000) on which Ericsson relies because consisting of national inventories that have been adjusted to fit conventional international definitions (TBFRA 2000) whereas Verkerk’s data rely on national inventories which have different inventory measurements and different forest definitions (Vis et al. 2010). This type of comparison is not valid for Böttcher and Asikainen as they both rely on the same felling’s statistics from the Forest Resource Assessment report of the FAO (2005). However, their potentials are highly different to each other which points to other factors than the input datasets influencing the estimations. 19 Table 10: Comparison of the input datasets used by Verkerk and Ericsson (in 1000 ha). Data of Verkerk come from national inventory while data of Ericsson come from TBFRA 2000. The difference consists of the subtraction of the value from Ericsson by the value of Verkerk. Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Total difference: Verkerk 3349 587 3646 2667 473 2048 18550 13872 10382 1859 626 5408 3141 1939 71 360 6309 20267 6211 1909 1159 10476 22647 Ericsson 3352 639 3124 2559 440 1932 20675 14470 10142 1702 580 6013 2413 1686 86 314 8300 1897 5617 1706 1035 10479 21236 2202 2108 Difference Percentage 3 0% 52 8% -522 -17% -108 -4% -33 -8% -116 -6% 2125 10% 598 4% -240 -2% -157 -9% -46 -8% 605 10% -728 -30% -253 -15% 15 17% -46 -15% 1991 24% -18370 -968% -594 -11% -203 -12% -124 -12% 3 0% -1411 -7% -94 -17653 -4% 4.2.3. Assumptions Differences also derive from the assumptions made by the authors. In the four papers studied, only Verkerk includes restrictions for the estimation of the theoretical potential, according to the tree age (derived from the assumption that young tree are not thinned or felled). In this regard, the theoretical estimation of Verkerk is supposed to lead to lower estimations than the other studies. All four publications have relied on allocation factors (or biomass expansion factor) to deduce from the harvesting volumes, or standing biomass, the proportion of forestry residues. These allocation factors rely on assumptions put forward by the authors and are thus variable from one study to another. Ericsson suggests a 30% proportion of biomass of residues for coniferous and 20% for deciduous. These slightly similar from those of Asikainen who assumes a 32.4% for pine trees and 21.8% for broadleaved trees (Table 5). For comparison, the reference values suggested by the European Commission (EC 2011) of 18% for broadleaves and 28% for pines and the allocation factor suggested by Rosillo-Calle et al. 20 (2007) is of 40%. Even if the differences fluctuate around the same percentages, these factors have been mentioned in previous work to have a major effect on major estimates (Dymond et al.2010) and are thus to be taken into account. Comparison with the study of Böttcher and of Verkerk are not feasible because they do not provide the values of the factors they relied on. Since biomass expansion factors are critical for the potential estimations, dedicated studies should address this heterogeneity found in the literature to gain more accurate insights into the actual allocation factors (Berndes et al.2003). In addition, assuming allocation factors according to such large tree groups is a rough estimate as large differences of tree component exists between tree species and development stage (Röser et al.2008). The aforementioned differences among the estimation of theoretical potentials are directly affecting the estimation of the technical potentials as they are calculated from the theoretical ones. For the technical potentials, the differences are moreover influenced by the various restrictions taken into account (Table 3). In addition, the quantification of each of the restriction is highly dependent on the the assumptions the authors have emitted. For instance, both Böttcher and Asikainen take into account the extra biomass available from complementary felling. However, Böttcher assumes 70% of complementary felling to become available for energy purposes while Asikainen assumes 25% to be available. The recovery rates are also subject to assumption. Within the four cases studied, Asikainen and Böttcher both refer clearly to such restrictions. Asikainen supposes that 65% of the residues are recovered in case of mechanical harvest and 50% in case of manual harvest. As for Böttcher, a 50% recovery rate is assumed above ground residues not making differences between types of harvest but assuming distinct recovery rate for stumps being 20% (40% in Finland and Sweden). In the case of Verkerk’s study, a recovery rate of 67% is assumed. As another point of comparison, the book of Rosillo-Calle et al. (2007) refers to 25% of the residues to be recoverable. Surprisingly, Ericsson’s research do not include recovery rates, which is likely to influence the estimation towards an overestimation. Böttcher does also not include a recovery rate in its spatial approach, but because applying strict restrictions and a maximum allowed extraction rate, it is likely that his estimation does not lead to an overestimation. The involvement of slopes or not and the quantification of their restriction depends from one study to another. Between the four studies, only Verkerk and Böttcher (spatial estimation) include this parameter. Both of them assume a 0% extraction rate on slopes steeper than 35%. Above that limit, Verkerk allows a 67% extraction rate while Böttcher relies on 65%. Verkerk and Böttcher (spatial estimation) both rely on many aspects to include environmental restrictions. They both assume a 0% extraction within protected areas and on peatlands. Verkerk includes the restriction of soil depth by implementing a 0% harvest on soil types known for their shallow properties. On his side, Böttcher relies on stricter restriction separating restrictions of soil depths from restrictions from soil types. As a result, Böttcher estimation is much more restricted, in terms of soil type than Verkerk (Table 11). 21 Table 11: Allowance rates applied by Böttcher and Verkerk to the distinct soil types. Cells were no percentage are shown are soil to which the author does not apply restrictions. Böttcher Verkerk Histosol Fluvisol 0% 0% - Böttcher Verkerk Acrisol 33% - Gleysol Andosol Rendzina Lithosol Ranker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rodzoluvisol Podzol Arenosol Planosol Xerosol 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% - At last, the soil compaction criteria is also addressed differently by the two authors. Both assume a 0% extraction rate to soil known as ‘very highly susceptible to compaction’ but Verkerk allows a 25% extraction on soils categorised as ‘highly susceptible’ while Böttcher remain on a 0% assumption. The statistical approach of Böttcher addresses environmental restriction in a less detailed way by assuming a general 5% restriction. 5. Summary and conclusion The comparison of the four studies illustrates how much the assessment of forestry residues potential can vary from one study to another (Table 1). Basic aspects such as the definition of forestry residues or the definition of the potential considered both show no consensus amongst the studies. Furthermore, the geographical scope varied between the studies even though it was referred to as being similar in first instance (‘European assessment’). Even a difference of two countries only has shown to provided considerable distinct area. Although showing great differences, those factors showed to be of secondary importance compared with the influence of the ‘methodology’. Particularly, the origin of the data (the database used) and the assumptions made by the authors to quantify the restrictions seem to have an important impact on the estimation, sometimes even overtaking the influence of the definitions or the geographical scale. The definition of residues showed that it was dependent on the assumed biomass behind each component. For example, while both Böttcher and Asikainen include complementary felling, one assume a much higher biomass income from it than the other one. Similarly, the effect of the geographical scope considered seemed mainly depend on the databases used. While Ericsson includes more countries into his analysis, the use of a distinct database lower this difference considerably. Another clear illustration is the definition of the potential. In the end, the amount of restrictions taken into account influences less the estimation than their quantification. Indeed, Verkerk and Böttcher (spatial) both relying on many restrictions show higher technical potential than Asikainen and Ericcson relying on a single limitation (Table 12). This is likely to be the consequence of the author attempting to avoid overestimations while not taking many constraints into account. This assumption can however not be generalised; Böttcher (spatial) who includes a single sustainability criteria assumes a relatively low restriction of 5% and therefore supplies a relatively high estimation. As a conclusion, the potential estimated is highly dependent on the assumptions made by the authors on how they decide to quantify certain restriction. The discrepancies between the studies highlight the need for common and standardised guidelines towards comparable methodologies. Further studies should aim at establishing such harmonisation. The study of 22 Vis et al. (2010) is a good example of what further studies should aim at. From a review of 17 European assessment studies, they conclude the best assessment strategies and suggest some reference databases. Further research assessing the potential of forestry residues should rely on such suggestions. 23 Table 12:Summary of the factors differing between the four studies and susceptible to lead to distinct potetntial estimation. NA: non applicable. Potential estimations are in PJ/year. ‘Percentage of theoretical’ is the percentage of the theoretical potential that the technical potential represents. Asikainen Residue definition Amount of restrictions Geographical scale result of the diff. geogr. Databases result of the diff datab. Allocation factors Complementary felling Recovery rate Protected area Slope Soil depth Soil texture Soil compaction Overall sust. Restriction Extra from unrecord. harvest Theoretical etimate Technical estimate Percentage of theoretical 2 EU27 FAO 2005 + 32.4% - 21.8% 25% 65% - 50% NA NA NA NA Verkerk + 7 EU27 Bottcher (stat) ++ 1 EU27 Bottcher (spat) ++ 6 EU27 Ericsson +++ 1 EU27 +17.469.000 ha National inventories FAO 2005 FAO 2005 TBFRA 2000 + ? 70% 50% NA + ? 70% 0% 0% <35°: 65%; >35°: 0% -17.653.000 ha 30% - 20% NA 0% NA NA <40cm: 33% NA NA 0% peatland 0% on highly and very highly sensitive NA ? NA 67% 0% <35°: 67%; >35°: 0% 0% on shallow soil types 0% peatland NA NA NA 25% on highly and 0% on very highly sensitive NA NA NA 5% NA NA NA NA +5% NA NA 2527.2 550.8 22% 2390.544 720 30% 3229 1186 37% 621.29 1170 590 50% NA 24 - Chapter 3 Sustainability of the removal of forestry residues In the following chapter, the second research question regarding the sustainability of residues harvesting is addressed with a specific focus on soil erosion, biodiversity, carbon stocks and dynamics and nutrients productivity. The risks engendered by the removal of residues are investigated for each of these factors and values of sustainable amount of removal suggested in the literature are presented. At the end, a summary is presented with the relations existing among those factors. 1. Soil erosion The numerous studies of Pimentel on soil erosion state that forestry residues play a protective role against erosion (Pimentel et al. 1995, Pimentel 1998). Erosion results from the exposure of soil to rain and wind and this exposure is enhanced when the cover of residues is removed (Pimentel 1998, EEA 2006). The consequences of soil erosion are multiple: a decrease of soil productivity, of nutrients availability, of water holding capacity and of biodiversity are the most commonly cited examples (Pamela et al. 2009, Pimentel 1998, EEA 2006). In the light of the above consequences, it is believed that forestry residues removal can impact severely the soil health in terms of erosion, even if some research (Pamela et al. 2009) believe in a minor impact only. In order to lessen the negative impacts, many advices are put forward in the literature and are enumerated below. In general, it is highly recommended to leave the roots and the stumps on site as this leads to high soil disturbance and higher risks of soil erosion (Lal et al. 2011, EEA 2006, Stupak et al. 2011, Walmsley et al. 2009). Moreover, it is widely recognised that soil erosion is influenced by the soil steepness (Pimentel 1998, EEA 2006, Lal et al. 2011). Thresholds for suitable harvest according to slope intensity are though not commonly agreed upon. For instance, the European Energy Agency considers slopes of more than 25° unsuitable (EEA 2006) while the Minnoseta guidelines have set the slope limit to 35° (Lal et al. 2011). In fact, thresholds should be site-specific and set according to the other soil characteristics (Lal et al. 2011). Indeed, besides the influence of slopes, soil sensitivity to erosion depends on the soil type (texture, organic composition, structure, depth, etc.) and the soil elevation (Pimentel 1998, EEA 2006, Lal et al. 2011). Fine texture soils with low organic content and weak structural development are believed to be subject to higher erosion rates (Pimentel 1998) and should thus be harvested less intensely. Shallow soils where harvesting should be avoided have been determined by the Wisconsin guidelines to be those where bedrock is within 20 inches to the surface (Lal et al. 2011). High altitude soils (> 1500 m) have been considered unsuitable by the European Energy Agency (EEA 2006). 25 Besides the soil characteristics, the harvesting infrastructures such as the roads and the heavy machinery used impact negatively the soil erosion (Lal et al. 2011, EEA 2006). Consequently, the area occupied by the infrastructures should represent only a small proportion of the total harvesting area. Minnoseta and Wisconsin have set this limit to be 3% of the total area, while the Missouri guidelines allow up to 10% of the area to be occupied by infrastructures and impacted by machineries (Lal et al. 2011). 2. Nitrogen balance In forests, nutrients are being recycled in a theoretically closed cycle. Organic nutrients are decomposed into inorganic nutrient by fungi and saproxylic species. Inorganic nutrients are then uptaken by the living biomass and contribute to the tree growth and thus to the generation of new organic matter. The organic matter will then be available again to decomposers via tree falls for example. This cycle, together with the fluxes from atmospheric depostion and leaching results in a relatively steady state in element storage (Röser et al. 2008). However, additional fluxes from harvesting can disturb the balance of the ecosystem. To ensure sustainability of the ecosystem, management practices need to be set in order to result in balanced fluxes. A compensation of the removal of biomass could be done through an input of fertilisation (Röser et al. 2008). The way each of the four fluxes are influenced by the extraction of removal is discussed below. In the scope of this work, only the nutrient nitrogen is discussed as it is believed to be the one critical to tree growth (Peckham and Gower 2011, Eisenbies et al. 2009). Harvesting In comparison with other parts of the tree, residues, and especially foliage, needles and stumps, contain a high percentage of nutrients and thus of nitrogen. Therefore, the removal of residue undeniably results in a removal of nutrients (Sullivan et al. 2011, U.S. Department of Energy 2011, EEA 2006, Eisenbies et al. 2009, Röser et al. 2008). However, the amount of nitrogen removed from the site is difficult to estimate as it depends on the harvest practice, the tree species and the tree age. That is to say, a more intensive harvesting will lead to a higher loss of nitrogen (Peckham and Gower 2011, Eisenbies et al. 2009), and depending on the tree species and the tree age, the amount of Nitrogen in the residues will be higher or lower leading to proportional losses (Eisenbies et al. 2009, Röser et al. 2008). Leaching In general, biomass harvesting will enhance the nutrients leaching process but this is highly dependent on the site nitrogen availability. Nitrogen saturated soil tend to show significant nitrogen leaching whereas nitrogen limited sites do not (Röser et al. 2008). Nonetheless, nitrogen-depleted sites are more sensitive to nitrogen loss and therefore still require attention. Some argue that sites showing high nitrogen load could benefit from residue removal (EEA 2006, Börjesson 2000). Nitrogen availability depends partly on soil temperature; low temperatures restrict the availability of nutrients because of the slow decomposition rates. Thus, it can be assumed that the impact of residue removal will be greater in countries and regions showing cooler climate. Besides soil temperature, other indicators can be referred to assess the site sensitivity. Soil presenting low pH usually show low nutrient availability and are therefore more responsive to biomass harvest (EEA 2006, Börjesson 2000, Röser et al. 26 2008). More shallow soils are also believed to result in greater leaching rates (Röser et al. 2008, Lal et al. 2011). To these indicators of soil sensitivity, Röser et al. (2008) add the indicators of soil mineralogy and texture, though not making clear in which way they influence the sensitiveness. Atmospheric deposition Atmospheric deposition happens on at the canopy level as well as at the ground level. Deposition rates are influenced by many factors. For instance, it is positively correlated to strong winds, complex landscape structure and polluted areas (Röser et al. 2008). Sitespecific deposition rates are of great interest as it gives insight into the amount of nitrogen that could counterbalance the loss from residue removal (EEA 2006, Börjesson 2000). Börjesson (2000) has estimated that 5% of the nitrogen present in residues could potentially return to the forest via atmospheric deposition. However, it is questionable whether the return is still be valid when residue are burnt away from the harvesting place. Fertilisation To compensate the loss of nitrogen the fertilisation is a widespread method in the U.S.A. (U.S. Department of Energy 2011) and is highly recommended, especially for nitrogen-poor sites (EEA 2006, Eisenbies et al. 2009, Röser et al. 2008). Many suggestions mention the use of ashes, though no nitrogen is supplied this way since it is all transferred into gaseous nitrous oxide (Börjesson 2000, Röser et al. 2008). The amount of fertilisers to be applied to the site is highly dependent on the site characteristics and on its sensitivity to nitrogen and other nutrients loss. Recommendations Due to the high site-specify of the nitrogen content and response to removal, estimations of sustainable harvest rates should be based on site-specific studies (Röser et al. 2008). For instance, Eisenbies et al.(2009), estimated from a literature review a 50% harvesting rate of available residues in Southern yellow pine plantations of the U.S.A. In general, few similar studies are available, and even fewer incorporate a long-term estimations (Eisenbies et al. 2009). On the other hand, since it is commonly agreed that foliage needles and stumps contain the highest nitrogen content, it is often recommended to leave those on the site (Eisenbies et al. 2009, EEA 2006 Börjesson 2000, Röser et al. 2008). 3. Carbon storage The use of biomass as a source of energy is generally assumed to be carbon neutral because the CO2 emitted during its combustion is believed to be equally absorbed by growing biomass (Cherubini et al.2011, Schulze et al.2012, Palosuo et al.2001). This assumption however neglects two major consequences of the use of forest residues. First, it omits the much higher rate of CO2 emissions from biomass burning than the carbon sequestration rate into plant biomass (Börjesson 2000). The result of this rate difference between emission and sequestration of carbon is a temporary accumulation of CO2 into the atmosphere that is believed to influence the climate (Körner 2003, Cherubini et al.2011, Repo et al.2011). The impact of such accumulation is unclear as studies all show different 27 estimations of resulting emissions (IPCC 2012). Nevertheless, some studies state that even if emission from forest residues may exceed the ones of fossil fuels in the first years, this tendency is likely to turn around or level out with time as the emitted carbon is slowly being re-absorbed by the growing biomass (McKechnie et al.2011, Repo et al.2011, Börjesson 2000). In order to ensure the inversion of this tendency over time, harvesting rate should not exceed biomass growth in order to allow biomass growth to counterbalance the emission from the use of residues. While there is a growing interest to increase harvest frequency and intensity (Peckham and Gower 2011), studies investigating the sustainable threshold of biomass extraction rate are crucially lacking in the literature. Some suggest that this threshold vary between forest type showing different growth rate (Cherubini et al.2011, Peckham and Gower2011, IPCC 2012). Therefore, further studies should focus on assessing sustainable extraction rates of residues according to the biomass growing rate of specific forest types. Secondly, it neglects the loss of carbon entering the soil carbon stock of the forest through decomposition. The overall carbon balance of a forest is divided into carbon stored into the living biomass and the carbon soil stored in the ground. Fluxes of carbon happen between those two pools by litterfall, natural fellings, logging residues, etc. (EC 2011, Palosuo et al.2001). The removal of residues therefore directly affect the soil carbon storage of the forest (IPCC 2012, Repo et al.2011, Palosuo et al.2001, Peckham and Gower2011, Börjesson 2000). Soil organic carbon is proved to be play a major role in cation exchange, water holding, soil structure and root penetration (Pamela et al. 2009). Previous studies considering this decline of soil carbon stock by harvesting residues, showed that these account for more than 80% of the total carbon emissions from the use of forest residues (Palosuo et al.2001, Repo et al.2011). In other words, the decline in soil carbon is greater than the direct emitted CO2 from the burning of the residues. This is due to the intrinsic trait of soil humus which stores about three times as much carbon as contained in CO2 (Körner 2003). On the other hand, some research argues that harvesting forestry residues could be an opportunity to improve forest health and decrease the risk of fire in forest showing biomass overstock. A harvesting of residues through thinning operations or sustainable silviculture practices may prove to increase the forest health by accelerating its growth and soil carbon storage while decreasing its chances of fire to globally result in CO2 emissions reduction (U.S. Department of Energy 2011, IPCC 2012, Pamela 2009). According to a recent research of Poudel et al.(2012), climate change will enhance forest biomass production by 33% in the next century, which would increase this opportunity in the future. Under the simulation of such biomass increase, Poudel et al.(2012) proved that an increase in harvesting intensity in two counties of Sweden (Jamtland and Vasternorrland) can be simultaneous to an increase in standing biomass and soil carbon stocks, and to a reduction of net carbon emissions. However, this is not taking into account the potential loss of forest growth consequent to less nutrient available from residue harvesting, discussed in the previous sections. 4. Biodiversity It is commonly agreed that the removal of forest residues represents a risk for the biodiversity present in the forest (EEA 2006, IPCC 2012, Sullivan et al.2011, Dalhberg et al. 2011, U.S. Department of Energy 2011, Lal et al. 2011, Verkerk et al. 2011b). The main reason of this is a change of habitat. Some claim a habitat homogenisation and fragmentation resulting from 28 residue harvesting and contributing to biodiversity loss (EEA 2006, Lal et al. 2011, Pamela et al. 2009). Overall, all studies agree that the main risk lies in habitat loss through the removal of deadwood (IPCC 2012, EEA 2006, Lal et al. 2011, Verkerk et al. 2011b, Dalhberg et al. 2011) and some even refer to deadwood as a biodiversity indicator (MCPFE 2012, Verkerk et al. 2011b, Schuck et al. 2005, Humphrey et al.2005a, Stockland et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2005). On the other hand, Pamela et al. (2009), conclude from a state-of-the-art of the literature that collecting forestry residues will have minor impact on the biodiversity compared to other bioenergy sources because of the feedstock being located on existing forest land. In order to ensure sustainable wood removal, one could thus refer to this deadwood indicator. However, this is subject to some critics because the biodiversity of an area results from complex biotic and abiotic factors and not of a single factor such as deadwood amount (Humphrey et al. 2005b, Lal 2011, U.S. Department of Energy 2011) and because the amount of natural deadwood vary according to forest type (Hahn et al. 2005, Humphrey et al. 2005b). Besides the risks of habitat removal or modification, Röser et al. (2008) mention other dangers which are believed to have great impacts although there have been understudied. First, the dispersal of species may be decreased due to habitat fragmentation which could lead to population isolation, loss of genetic brewing in turn leading to higher risks of species extinction. This aspect, though often not mentioned, probably has a great impact as insects and other animals dependent on woody residues show short distances dispersal. Second, the removal of residues changes the intensity of sun exposure. Many species have specific relationships to sun exposure and could therefore be endangered. Thirdly, residue represent a protection for underground species such as worms, which are often ignored in the current literature. Fourthly, the harvesting of the residue often involves the stacking of the residue into piles before transportation. These piles produce odours detectible to insects tracking substrates to lay their eggs on. The impact of the removal of those piles for the transportation of residues towards their burning site is certainly disastrous as it involves the extinction of several insect generations at the same time. Last, but not least, the higher trophic effect is too often neglected. Indeed, if insects populations are threatened, the animal populations feeding from those, such as birds, are likely to be endangered as well. Recommended extraction rates to ensure biodiversity vary from one study to another, according to several assumptions made and according to the site-specificity. For instance, Dahlberg et al. 2011, conclude from a model that an extraction rate of 70% of Swedish residues would lead to a loss of habitat for 50% of the species present in the forest but they assume that this would be sustainable because no Red-list species are included and because forestry activities will increase over the years replenishing the habitats with residues. Börjesson (2000) refers to an allowed 90% of total residues to be extracted in Sweden. Another example is the review of Lal et al. (2011) comparing different guidelines adopted by several countries. In Finland, 70% extraction is allowed, while in the U.S.A., according to the State, the recommended extraction rate vary from 90% in Pennsylvania to 67% in Missouri (Lal et al. 2011). On a European level, the study of EEA (2006) favours the retaining of 5% of residue on site for biodiversity purposes. 29 In addition to restricted harvest rates, other recommendations are being proposed in the literature. Some suggest to leave large diameter tree dead wood on site in order to provide a habitat counterbalancing the loss of residues (EEA 2006). The efficiency of such techniques is however subject to doubts since previous studies have shown that species were highly specified to residue types and sizes (Verkerk et al. 2011b). Another recommendation made by EEA (2006) is to avoid harvesting in areas hosting protected species from the IUCN red list and Natura 2000. This may prove to be a more adequate suggestion than avoiding harvest in nature reserve as previous work has shown that reserves rarely showed the highest biodiversity (Scott et al. 2001). Another type of advice was formulated by Sullivan et al. (2011) who showed that constructing piles of woody debris significantly helped maintaining biodiversity on site after residue harvest. 5. Summary and interrelation of the processes Figure 2: Effect of residue removal the balances of forest ecosystems. Arrows indicate the movement of elements, perpendicular lines indicate an inhibition or decrease, red elements are changes resulting from the removal of residues outside the ecosystem. a. Atmospheric deposition of carbon dioxide (CO2) and gaseous nitrogen (Ng). b. Natural fall of residue brings organic carbon nitrogen to the soil. c. Organic matter is decomposed by fungi and microfauna into inorganic compounds. d. Inorganic compounds are uptaken by plant’s roots and contribute to biomass growth. e. Sun exposure decreases decomposition rate. f. Natural leaching of nutrients. Although mentioned above separately for clarity reasons, these four processes are closely related to each other. Figure 2 summarises the abovementioned processes and how they interact with each other. By interacting with each other, they form a well balanced ecosystem resulting a steady state (black arrows). The extraction of residues outside the ecosystem may break this natural balance in several ways (red arrows) : 1. Less organic carbon and nitrogen are deposited to the ground The consequence of a decreased input (b.) undeniably results in a decreased decomposition (c.) and a decreased of available inorganic matter and thus of nutrient uptake (d.). This is believed to lead to lower tree growth (Röser et al. 2008, Pamela et al. 2009). 30 2. The protective cover of residues decreases The removal of the protective layer enhance the exposure of soil to sun, wind and rain. An exposure to sun is believed to lead to lower decomposition rate (Röser et al. 2008). Furthermore, the enhanced exhibition to wind and rain leads to increased erosion rates. This in turn, positively affects the runoff of nutrients via leaching (f.). Lower nitrogen soils leads to lower pH and acidic soil lead to less nitrogen availability starting a negative feedback loop. Moreover, the extraction of residues consists of an extraction of many species substrates and habitat, many of which are decomposing species (e.g. saproxylic species).The overall consequence is a lower nitrogen availability, reinforcing the consequence mentioned in ‘1’ and affecting negatively biomass growth. 3. More carbon dioxide and gaseous nitrogen is released into the atmosphere The burning of biomass results in releases of nitrogenous and carbonic gasses. These are assumed to be partly or completely reabsorbed by tree biomass (a.). The percentage of this recycling by living biomass is however subject to uncertainties as biomass uptake is a much slower process than the gasses emissions from the combustion (Körner 2003, Börjesson 2000). Moreover, if the removal of residues results in decreased biomass growth as assumed under the points 1 and 2, this may lead to lower carbon dioxide uptake (EEA 2006). 6. Recommended sustainable residues extraction 6.2. Current uncertainties While most authors acknowledge the environmental risks of residue removal (Verkerk et al. 2011b, Röser et al. 2008, EEA 2006, IPCC 2012, Sullivan et al.2011, Dalhberg et al. 2011, U.S. Department of Energy 2011, Lal et al. 2011, Repo et al.2011, Palosuo et al.2001, Peckham and Gower2011, Börjesson 2000, Eisenbies et al. 2009), many of them still conclude that the impact is likely to be minor (EEA 2006, Eisenbies et al. 2009, Börjesson 2000, Pamela et al. 2009). For reliable results, studies should incorporate the many aspects mentioned above and their interrelations. Because of the high spatial heterogeneity research should carried out per regions and management strategies should follow regional recommendations. An exemplary illustration of such study is the report of European Energy Agency (2006) which incorporates a classification of extraction thresholds according to the site suitability (Appendix 8). Moreover, as the processes cited above happen throughout large time scale, studies assessing the impact should an equivalent time frame or longer. Though, few studies are completed on long term scales. 6.2. Recommended harvest restrictions In general, there seems to be a common agreement that stumps, roots and foliage should be left on site. They represent a high nutrient value and a broad species habitat and substrate. Stumps and roots removal moreover leads to damaging erosion consequences (Röser et al. 2008, EEA 2006, Walmsley et al. 2010). Furthermore, in order to ensure the longevity of the pre existing equilibrium, it is believed that pre existing residue should not be removed, in other words, the extraction should only concern the extra residues resulting from the logging activities or the precommercial thinning. 31 6.3. Management recommendations Some argue that harvesting should take place during the cooler period (Röser et al. 2008, Eisenbies et al. 2009). This recommendation is made under the assumption that soil nitrogen is less available and thus less subject to leaching at that period. Moreover, the risk of species endangerment from the exportation of residue piles hosting insect eggs and would not take place in this non-breeding period. Rotation cycles should be implemented after studies investigating the time required for each of the above-discussed processes to recover. Peckham and Gower (2011) investigate the recovery of both carbon and nitrogen natural recovery after residue harvesting. Ideally, harvesting should not take place before retrieving the natural state in order to prevent nutrient depletion in the longer term. 32 - Chapter 4Conclusions and recommendations In first instance, the research questions are answered and the related hypotheses are verified according to the information gathered through the present literature review. In a second section, educated recommendations based on the present work are offered to ensure sustainability of residues extraction. The current gaps in literature impeding accurate assessment of sustainable and technically feasible potential are presented along with the limitations of the present work. 1. Research questions and related hypotheses Research question 1: How do distinct methods influence the estimation of primary forestry residues potential as a bioenergy source? There are substantial differences among the methods used by distinct studies. The definitions, the geographical scope, the level of details, the databases and the assumptions about the quantifications of the restrictions are all factors influencing the final estimation. From the four studies the present work focused on, the underlying databases and the assumptions regarding the quantification of the restrictions appear to have the greatest influence on the estimate. Related hypotheses: If the definition of the ‘forestry residues’ differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. The definition of forestry residues is believed to influence, among other factors, the potential’s estimation. This is because depending on the definition used, the author includes more or less biomass in his estimation. The extent to which this influences the final outcome is dependent on the underlying assumptions concerning the availability and the recovering rates which influence the amount of biomass of each of the residue’s components. If the definition of the ‘potential’ differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. The definitions of the theoretical potential does not differ between the studies considered in this report whereas the technical potential definitions differ in the restrictions considered. The intensity of the influence is dependent on the assumptions lying behind the restrictions and their quantification. In other words, a potential considering many restrictions does not necessarily lead to a lower estimate. If the geographical scope considered for the assessment of the potential differs from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. Relying on distinct geographical scales is likely to influence the potential estimation if leading to large surface differences. In this case, this difference was counterbalanced by the use of distinct database. Hence, relying on distinct geographical scale may influence the estimation, but the final result of the estimation is also dependent on other factors. 33 If the methods and calculations to estimate the potential differ from one study to another, this can lead to distinct assessment of the potential. The application of distinct methodologies, and especially the utilisation of distinct databases and restriction quantifications, influence greatly the potential’s evaluation. On several occasions, these factors showed to have a stronger influence than the factors mentioned in the previous research questions. Research question 2: What are the environmental impacts generated by the extraction of forestry residues for their conversion into bioenergy? The environmental impacts resulting from the removal of forestry residues are multiple and interdependent: biodiversity, carbon balance, soil erosion and nitrogen balance of the ecosystem are all factors affected by the removal of residues, but the extent to which they are affected by the removal of residues ultimately also depend on how the other factors are being affected. Because of the interrelation between those factors, the impact on one of them often showed to increase the impact on another one. Natural ecosystems represent a complex, but rather steady equilibrium. The harvesting of residues means a disturbance of this natural balance. Related hypotheses: If forestry residues play an important role in preventing soil erosion, their extraction could lead to increased soil erosion. The removal of forestry residues increase soil exposure to wind and rain, hence, contribute to higher erosion rates. The consequences are multiple and include: a decrease of soil productivity, of nutrients availability (via increased leaching), of water holding capacity and of biodiversity. The extent to which the soil erosion occurs following the harvest of residues is dependent on the harvest practice and the soil characteristics. It is commonly agreed that the removal of stumps and roots has the greatest impact. If forestry residues play an important role in the forest nutrient cycling, their extraction for the use of bioenergy could endanger the ecosystem nitrogen equilibrium. Removing residues from the forest involves a new flux of nitrogen outside the ecosystem and thus unbalance the natural nitrogen cycle. The extent to which the nitrogen cycle is endangered is unclear as the impact of nitrogen removal is sitedependent and may be counterbalanced by natural nitrogen atmospheric deposition or by artificial fertilisation. If forestry residues play an important role in the forest’s carbon pool, their extraction for the use of bioenergy could lead to a global loss of carbon stock. The forest’s carbon storage consist of two main pools: the soil’s carbon pool and the carbon stored into the standing biomass. Forestry residues constitute an important share of the soil’s carbon pool and their extraction are therefore expected to affect this store. The impact of residues extraction on the standing biomass is unclear and seem to depend on future biomass growth due to climate change and on the proportion of CO2 that is returned to the biomass after the burning of the residues. If forestry residues provide habitat to some forest species (especially micro fauna), their extraction for the use of bioenergy could threaten those species. 34 Because deadwood is a main habitat and substrate to many species, the removal of forestry residues, depending on the harvest intensity, may decrease those species population sizes. Besides the fact that residues are a source of deadwood and thus of habitat, their removal may have other impacts, such as the extinction of several generations by removing residues piles serving as insect’s nursing home or indirect impacts on higher trophic levels. 2. Recommendations 2.1. Residue extraction recommendations Some advices are encountered repeatedly in the literature and should thus be interpreted as unavoidable restrictions. It is widely documented that stumps and roots should remain on site to (i) avoid soil erosion, (ii) maintain a proportion of the soil’s carbon pool, (iii) sustain a balance of nitrogen in the soil and (iv) to maintain the habitat they provide to certain species. Foliage and needles are also recommended to be left on site because of their high nitrogen (and other nutrients) content. In addition, some authors advise a harvest during the cooler period in order to lower the impact on nitrogen soil balance and on the biodiversity. This is of particular relevance for countries harbouring a distinct cooler period, such as northern countries, and when the harvest of residues involves residue stacking into piles, of which the removal during the warm period is fatal to large species populations including several generations. The investigation of the two research question has allowed to estimate the most appropriate methodology in order to assess the residue’s potential while ensuring environmental sustainability and technical feasibility. The first research question points to a crucial lack of commonly agreed restrictions to ensure sustainability. The factors investigated in the third chapter all showed to be of primary importance for the environment sustainability and should be considered when assessing the potential. These factors also showed to be highly sitedependent. Therefore, sustainable extraction thresholds should be established per site. The third chapter also illustrated the interrelation of these factors which is thus recommended to be included in the assessment. For instance, the impact of slopes depends on the soil type and soil deepness. In order to incorporate the site-specificity and the overlapping of distinct restrictions, it is assumed that a spatially-based approach would provide a most reliable estimate. Indeed, a spatial approach, such as the ones of Böttcher et al. 2010 and Verkerk et al. 2011 include site-specific restrictions and combine them into one ‘restriction map/matrix’ that is then applied to the ‘theoretical potential map’. The existence of spatial databases about soil type, soil elevation, etc. allow to apply many restrictions faster than with a statistical approach where calculations are to be made per country/region before being summed up. Because including many restriction factors in a statistical approach is highly time-consuming, such approach tend to include less restrictions, which presents the risk to be less representative. As for the quantification of each of the restriction, there exists currently no empirical references, which hampers accurate estimations of sustainable and technically achievable potential. When choosing from suggested extraction rates in the literature, one should prioritise site-specific studies since ‘sustainable harvests’ have different rates in different sites. Moreover, preference should go to studies including a long term scale to allow 35 consideration of the ecosystem’s resilience (i.e. the capacity to return to the natural state after the harvesting). It is of primary importance to extract residues at a rate that allows the forest biodiversity, nitrogen cycle, carbon stock and soil litter to recover. To allow this, the main recommendation made is to leave pre-existing residues on site and to restrict the harvest to the newly made residues. For the particular case of biodiversity, it is recommended to avoid areas hosting rare species. The IUCN Red List Species and, at the European level, the Natura 2000 species represent a good overview of rare species. The use of such lists is believed to be more relevant than restrictions to nature reserves which have been shown to host low amounts of protected species. Moreover, it is commonly accepted that a certain amount animal’s substrates and habitats should be left on site. Deadwood of distinct sizes and some piles of residues are often put forward as effective solutions to maintain species diversity and sustainable abundance. Regarding the database used, the of NAI databases shows the advantage to give insights into the forest biomass state which can then be interpreted into corresponding carbon/biomasssustainable extraction rates. At present, it is unclear how much the removal of residues affect the biomass and carbon content of a forest: on the one hand some studies state that it would induce reduced tree growth and would thus decrease the carbon stock, and on the other hand, some studies claim that this will be largely compensated by increasing carbon uptake from increase global CO2 levels. Relying on NAI database would clarify these points and would provide an straightforward way to ensure sustainability by preventing harvests exceeding NAI. Furthermore, the use of felling statistics is acknowledged to lead to an underestimation and should thus be avoided. To sum up, it is highly recommended to leave on site: the stumps, the roots, the leaves, the needles, some deadwood of various sizes and some piles of residues. The harvest is advised to take place in the cooler period, and should be prevented in areas hosting protected species. Extraction rates should be set according to many, rather than too few, factors and the spatial variation of these factors is to be taken into account. To do so, spatially-based approaches are recommended. These are believed to represent a more realistic potential estimation because including many factors, their site specificity and their overlapping with other restrictions. Lastly, it is suggested to rely on NAIs databases and to not implement harvests exceeding NAIs, and to avoid felling statistics which are believed to lead to an underestimation. 2.2. Further research needed The aforementioned recommendations are however lacking theoretical knowledge on several aspects which will impede their implementation. To allow accurate and representative potential estimation and to allow the drawing of reliable assumptions concerning a sustainable extraction rates, the following research are currently lacking in the literature and should be addressed urgently: Knowledge is acquired about which factors are limiting sustainable harvest, but little is known about the amount of residue that should stay on site to ensure sustainability of these factors. Research is needed to quantify accurate extraction rates to avoid relying on rough estimations likely to lead to bias. Assessing site-recovery rates could become introduced within national forest inventories or could be assessed by means of remote sensing techniques in order to fill this gap in. 36 The current body of literature includes little long term studies assessing the long term impacts of forestry removals. Such studies are of primary concern to provide sustainable harvest rates. Although it is suggested to rely on NAI statistics, the conversion from NAI into biomass data is lacking increment-biomass informations, impeding the biomass expansion factors to be determined accuratly. Because this type of statistics is known to provide more accurate data on how to sustainably harvest a forest, this gap is necessary to be addressed. Despite that researchers are advised to rely on spatially-based assessment methodologies, the available spatial data are often of poor accuracy; soil and forest maps are of poor resolutions. Future effort should be put in place to improve those datasets. National inventories are not comparable to each other because relying on distinct methodologies and assumptions. Further studies should be carried out in an attempt to provide harmonised databases by adjusting country-level inventories to international datasets. 2.3. Study limitation The present work, although carried out within a certain time restriction is believed to provide a good overview of the present literature concerning the assessment of European forestry residue potential and on which factors to integrate to sustainably harvest residues. However, this time limitation prevented the comparison of more studies in the scope of the first research question, and restricted the amount of environmental factors addressed within the third chapter. Regarding the first research question, it is likely that more robust conclusions could be drawn from comparing a larger amount of studies. As for the second research question, it has to be kept in mind that water protection is often hampered by the removal of residues and that other nutrients play an important role within ecosystems (e.g. K+ and Ca2+) although these have not been addressed in this study. 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(2010) Stump harvesting for bioenergy – a review of the environmental impacts, Forestry, 83, pp. 17-38 42 Appendices Appendix 1: Conversion factors used for the conversion of original estimates into a singular unit Conversion factor 1kg wet weight= 10,06MJ 1kg dry weight= 15,48MJ Reference Böttcher et al. 2010 Böttcher et al. 2010 Average wood density= 0,4t/m3 de Wit et al. 2010 Appendix 2: Extent of forests and other wooded land in 2005 in Europe (Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005). Land area Country/area 1000 ha Albania Andorra Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Channel Islands Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Faeroe Islands Finland France Germany Gibraltar Greece Holy See Hungary Iceland Ireland Isle of Man Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Monaco Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation San Marino Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Ukraine United Kingdom Total Europe Other wooded land Forest % of land area Other land with Total tree cover Inland water Total area 1000 ha 1000 ha 1000 ha 1000 ha 1000 ha 794 29,0 261 1.685 - 135 16 35,6 - 29 - 0 2.875 45 3.862 46,7 118 4.293 - 113 8.386 7.894 38,0 914 11.940 - 12 20.760 667 22,0 27 2.334 - 25 3.053 2.185 43,1 549 2.339 - 47 5.120 3.625 32,8 27 7.411 - 36 11.099 1 4,1 0 18 0 n.s. 19 2.135 38,2 346 3.111 - 62 5.654 2.648 34,3 0 5.080 96 159 7.887 500 11,8 136 3.607 - 66 4.309 2.284 53,9 82 1.873 - 284 4.523 n.s. 0,1 - 140 - 0 140 22.500 73,9 802 7.145 177 3.367 33.814 15.554 28,3 1.708 37.748 269 140 55.150 11.076 31,7 - 23.819 - 808 35.703 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3.752 29,1 2.780 6.358 - 306 13.196 0 0 0 n.s. - 0 n.s. 1.976 21,5 0 7.235 95 92 9.303 46 0,5 104 9.875 8 275 10.300 669 9,7 41 6.179 - 138 7.027 3 6,1 0 54 0 n.s. 57 9.979 33,9 1.047 18.385 - 723 30.134 2.941 47,4 115 3.149 29 255 6.460 7 43,1 0 9 - 0 16 2.099 33,5 77 4.092 62 262 6.530 259 87 33,5 1 170 - 0 n.s. 1,1 0 32 - 0 32 0 0 0 n.s. n.s. 0 n.s. 365 10,8 0 3.023 0 765 4.153 9.387 30,7 2.613 18.625 - 1.751 32.376 9.192 30,0 - 21.437 - 640 31.269 3.783 41,3 84 5.283 - 48 9.198 329 10,0 31 2.928 - 96 3.384 6.370 27,7 258 16.359 - 852 23.839 808.790 47,9 74.185 805.875 4.698 18.690 1.707.540 n.s. 1,6 0 6 - 0 6 2.694 26,4 808 6.698 269 17 10.217 1.929 40,1 - 2.879 32 93 4.901 1.264 62,8 44 706 24 13 2.027 17.915 35,9 10.299 21.730 - 655 50.599 27.528 66,9 3.257 10.377 1.353 3.834 44.996 1.221 30,9 67 2.667 - 174 4.129 906 35,8 82 1.543 - 40 2.571 9.575 16,5 41 48.319 907 2.435 60.370 2.845 11,8 20 21.223 24 203 24.291 1.001.394 44,3 100.925 1.157.788 8.044 37.611 2.297.719 43 Appendix 3: Removals of wood products between 1990 and 2005 in Europe (FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005). Country/area Albania Andorra Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Channel Islands Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Faeroe Islands Finland France Germany Gibraltar Greece Holy See Hungary Iceland Ireland Isle of Man Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Monaco Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation San Marino Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Ukraine United Kingdom Total Europe 1990 2000 2005 Total Total Total Industrial roundwood Wood fuel 1000 m³ o.b. 1000 m³ o.b. 1000 m³ o.b. 1000 m³ o.b. 1000 m³ o.b. % of growing stock 626 157 168 24 144 - - - - - 0,2 - 17.318 16.834 20.127 15.858 4.269 1,7 - 7.367 8.568 7.323 1.245 0,6 4.352 3.526 4.368 3.768 600 2,5 4.773 4.326 4.139 2.993 1.146 1,1 3.400 3.778 4.200 3.075 1.125 0,7 - - - - - - 2.287 4.062 4.950 3.662 1.288 1,4 13.030 15.860 17.274 16.317 957 2,3 2.023 2.099 1.807 900 907 2,4 3.206 11.164 9.602 7.502 2.100 2,1 - - - - - - 47.203 60.603 64.295 59.095 5.200 3,0 55.621 58.330 51.475 33.443 18.032 2,1 42.177 48.818 60.770 54.497 6.273 - - - - - - - 2.979 2.221 1.842 438 1.404 1,0 - - - - - - 5.945 5.902 5.528 3.421 2.107 1,6 n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. 1.789 2.778 2.819 2.797 22 4,3 - - - - - - 9.877 10.031 9.600 3.800 5.800 0,7 4.820 11.574 11.500 10.580 920 1,9 21 21 21 16 5 1,2 3.651 6.171 7.727 5.881 1.846 1,9 - 230 139 135 4 0,5 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - 1.518 1.147 1.200 860 340 1,8 12.475 10.304 9.219 7.631 1.588 1,1 23.617 29.882 33.015 31.692 1.323 1,8 11.922 10.590 11.123 10.433 690 3,2 - 62 65 31 34 0,1 17.218 14.285 17.300 11.418 5.882 1,3 336.527 152.316 180.000 129.400 50.600 0,2 - - - - - - 3.806 3.002 2.600 1.301 1.299 0,8 5.545 6.150 6.732 6.372 360 1,4 2.978 2.547 3.153 2.622 531 0,9 18.517 17.965 17.689 15.741 1.948 2,0 58.140 70.570 76.780 68.740 8.040 2,4 5.345 6.421 6.958 5.664 1.294 1,5 - 927 927 162 765 1,5 13.590 12.231 14.820 6.660 8.160 0,7 7.152 8.471 8.895 8.630 265 2,6 44 Appendix 4: Forest inventory data used in the EFISCEN model (Verkerk et al.2011) Appendix 5: Datasets on which Verkerk et al. (2011) relied on to apply restrictions to estimate the technical potential. Constraint Site productivity Soil surface texture Soil depth Soil bearing capacity Soil susceptibility to compaction Slope Natura 2000 sites Fire weather index Reference of dataset EC, 2006b EC, 2006b EC, 2006b EC, 2006b Housková 2008 USGS 1996 EC 2009b M. Moriondo pers. commun. 45 Appendix 6: Explanations of the constraints taken into account by Verkerk et al. (2011). Appendix7: Forest available for wood supply. Data used by Ericsson and Nilsson (2006) (TBFRA 2000). 46 Appendix 8: Sustainable extraction thresholds according to site suitability (EEA 2006). Appendix 9: Table 14 from Böttcher et al.(2010) report. List of net annual increment used for the potentials estimations. 47 Appendix 10: Table 15 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Determination of harvesting loss fraction used for the potential estimates. 48 Appendix 11: Table 16 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Determination of harvesting loss fraction used for the potential estimates. 49 Appendix 127: Table 17 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Trends of removals of wood products partly derived from FAO (2010). 50 Appendix 13: Table 18 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Trends in removals of wood products from forest in 2005 – EU 27 – based on FRA 2010 Annex 3 Table 13 and other data sources. 51 Appendix 84: Table 19 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Growing Stock on Forest and Other Wooded Land by forest type and country [1000 ha] Source: MCPFE 2005. 52 Appendix 159: Table 20 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Industrial roundwood consumption, Forest Product Statistics from the Forestry and Timber Section, UNECE. 53 Appendix 16: Table 24 of Böttcher et al.(2010) report. Area of Forest and Other Wooded Land 2005 [1000 ha] Source: MCPFE 2007 54 Appendix 10: Thesis schedule Task Tot. hours We. 46: 13-16 November Week 47: 19-23 November Week 49: 26-30 November Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Week 50: 3-7 December Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Week 51: 10-14 December Week 52: 17-21 December Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Mon. Tues. Weekly meetings 6 Carry out preliminary literature review Write introduction 9 14 Draw hypotheses 1 Literature review 48 Write 1st RQ 64 Edit 1st draft 2 Submit 1st draft 0 Edit 1st draft 24 Write 2nd RQ 56 Edit 2nd Draft 8 Submit 2nd Draft 0 Edit 2nd Draft 24 Submit last version 0 Total time (not including meetings) 256 Total ECTS 9 (256/28) 55 56