United Nations Development Programme Country: Ukraine Project Document Project Title Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth in Ukraine UNDAF Outcome(s): Government of Ukraine adopts policy frameworks and mechanisms to ensure reversal of environmental degradation, climate change mitigation and adaptation, prevention and response to natural and man-made disasters Expected CP Outcome(s): Government of Ukraine adopts policy frameworks and mechanisms to ensure reversal of environmental degradation, climate change mitigation and adaptation, prevention and response to natural and man-made disasters (Those linked to the project and extracted from the CP) Expected Output(s): (Those that will result from the project) Capacity of partners strengthened to design and implement measures on climate change (CC) and Energy Efficiency at local level Implementing Agencies: State Environmental Investment Agency Brief Description The project aims to assist Ukraine in developing a long-term low carbon development strategy, focusing on achieving economic growth and avoiding concomitant increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Ukrainian government’s overall institutional capacity to design and implement climate change policies and measures will be improved by developing appropriate decisionmaking tools and analysis. Programme Period: 2012-2016 Key Result Area (Strategic Plan) ______________ Atlas Award ID: ______________ Start date: End Date November, 2011 November, 2013 PAC Meeting Date ______________ Management Arrangements NIM Agreed by (Government) Agreed by (UNDP): I. SITUATION ANALYSIS Ukraine became Party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, committing itself to stabilizing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the period of 2008-2012 at 1990 level. Due to economic decline following the break-up of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's greenhouse gas emissions are currently 54% lower than in 1990. At the same time, the Ukrainian economy remains among the most carbon intensive globally; the level of GHG emissions per unit of GDP is three times higher in Ukraine than the average for OECD countries. The trend of emission decline has already reversed, and from 2000 to 2007 Ukraine's greenhouse gas emissions increased by 12%. Ukraine's government remains optimistic about its long-term economic recovery and at the same time doubts the ability of the country to decouple economic growth and increase in emission reductions. As its submission to the Copenhagen Accord, Ukraine offered a target of 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 in comparison with 1990 as its possible commitment under a future climate change regime. In absolute terms this represents an over 70% increase from current emission levels and the least ambitious target of all post-2012 targets proposed by countries currently included in Annex I of the UNFCCC. Although Ukrainian government is aware of the lack of ambition in its target, it currently lacks the tools and resources to examine the realistic mitigation potential, analyze and evaluate potential policies and measures that could contribute to stabilisation of emissions in the country, particularly from the point of view of economic development and energy security, and to lead a broad interagency process that could result in the formulation of a long-term low carbon growth strategy. II. STRATEGY The project aims to support the Government of Ukraine in steering the country on a low emission pathway for Ukraine’s long-term economic development. To this effect, the project will strengthen the institutional capacity of Ukraine to design and implement longterm policies and measures directed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and enhancing absorption by sinks. The project goal is development of a long-term strategy of low carbon growth of Ukraine, that can be used by the Government of Ukraine to inform the formulation of its sectoral processes domestically, and internationally. The project team will pursue an integrated approach, allowing the Government of Ukraine to utilize the tools, information, and support it requires in initiating, developing and adopting a low-carbon development strategy. In particular, the project will - Develop new generation GHG models and comprehensive projections of GHG emissions; - Prepare the concept of Ukraine's low carbon growth strategy by 2020 and 2050; - Prepare enabling environment for the introduction of a domestic emissions trading scheme in Ukraine; - Improve the measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions; - Strengthen institutional capacity to implement climate change policies in Ukraine. Target group: Government of Ukraine, national scientific institutes, private sector entities, public and non-governmental organizations, people of Ukraine. 2 The project team will pursue an integrated approach, allowing the Government of Ukraine to utilize the tools, information, and support it requires in initiating, developing and adopting a low-carbon development strategy. As a foundation of a low-carbon development strategy, the team will help to develop a new generation of GHG models and comprehensive projections of GHG emissions that can be utilized by the government of Ukraine to inform its decision-making. The models and projects will be designed flexible and user-friendly to enable for analysis of NEIA to update them on a regular basis depending on the real-life economic development. Building onto and feeding into the development of GHG models will be analysis of mitigation opportunities in Ukraine, which will serve as a basis for the preparation of a draft concept of Ukraine’s low carbon growth strategy by 2020 and 2050. The concept will provide significant consideration of potential sources of financing of the low carbon development, and will elaborate specific mechanisms the government may wish to employ. As one of such elements the project will consider, and help Ukraine in designing, a domestic emissions trading scheme. Furthermore, recognizing the interconnectedness between Ukraine’s domestic policies and the international climate change policy and negotiations, the project will assist the government of Ukraine in communicating its low carbon development strategy and incorporating it in its international approaches, including its position in post-2012 negotiations. Contribution to climate change mitigation or adaptation The project activities will facilitate the setting and implementation of an ambitious vision of Ukraine’s low carbon development. It will provide specific input towards long-term mitigation policies, allowing Ukraine to take a proactive position in international negotiations on the future climate regime. Thus the project will not only assist Ukraine in reducing its emissions at a national level, but it will also enable Ukraine to provide a significant contribution towards achieving 2540% reduction in Annex I emissions by 2020. The latter would be important for facilitating successful and ambitious future global climate regime. The project will also significantly contribute to further strengthening and development of carbon markets by facilitating the introduction of an emissions trading scheme in Ukraine. Establishment of an emissions trading scheme in Ukraine will support EU's goal of creating a global carbon market by 2020 and promote the use of horizontal market mechanisms for environmental protection in the Europe and the CIS region as well as globally Contribution to economic and social development in the project region and in the country of implementation A concept of a low carbon development plan of Ukraine will be prepared in close collaboration with the government of Ukraine, setting out a vision of the country’s socioeconomic development in a carbon-constrained world up to 2020 and 2050. Besides ensuring low emission growth, the plan will also map out a strategy for attracting climate-friendly investment, incentivising low carbon businesses, and leveraging additional resources for realization of the government's emission reduction goals. 3 Implementation of a low carbon development plan is expected to contribute significantly to economic and social development of Ukraine by creating green jobs, promoting energy efficiency and energy security, and improving access to a variety of financial resources to stimulate the country's low carbon growth, including carbon markets and market-based mechanisms. Further effects of the project Since its inception, the State Environmental Investment Agency has consistently strived to advance the climate policy in Ukraine and to bring the benefits of the carbon markets to the Ukrainian economy. Currently, Ukraine is one of the leaders in hosting emission reduction projects among UNFCCC Annex I countries. The project will continue the positive trend of increasing Ukraine’s institutional capacity with regards to climate policy and carbon markets and thus will: - enable Ukraine’s sustainable economic development through design and implementation of policies promoting the country's economic growth without growth in greenhouse gas emissions; - promote the use of market-based instruments for environmental protection in Ukraine, the CIS region, and globally; - improve Ukraine's adaptability to the consequences of climate change; - continue to raise awareness of climate change in Ukraine; - contribute to an ambitious post-2012 climate protection agreement. Securing sustainability after completion of support (long-term project financing, management and institutional integration) The State Environmental Investment Agency of Ukraine is a direct beneficiary of the project. The project corresponds to and supports implementation of climate change policy priorities of Ukraine. The project's sustainability and long-term financing of follow-up activities will be ensured by the capacity and operations of the NEIA as a governmental institution subordinated to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and financed from the national budget of Ukraine. All outputs of the project will be handed over to the government on their completion to allow full access, updating, and modification according to the evolving needs and circumstances of the government of Ukraine. Duplicability of results, prominence and multiplier effect Successful development and implementation of a low carbon growth strategy for Ukraine will serve as a proof of concept and will allow disseminating Ukraine’s experience to other countries in the region. The methods used in the process of developing the low carbon growth strategy can be replicated; the lessons learned from the project will be shared with neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the efforts of Ukraine to establish an emission trading scheme will serve as a test case and over time will facilitate successful development of domestic and regional greenhouse gas markets. This would support and contribute to the promotion and deployment of horizontal market-based mechanisms both in the former Soviet Union and beyond. The experience learned from this process will be transferable to other countries with similar level of economic development, in particular among middle-income developing countries. 4 Innovative character (technological, economic, methodological, institutional) The project is first of a kind in the former Soviet Union which comprehensively addresses post-2012 climate change regime and capacity building needs. Ukraine is the only country in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the only country in the former Soviet Union outside of the EU that is actively pursuing the possibility of using an emissions trading scheme as a long-term greenhouse gas mitigation policy. Should the project go ahead, Ukraine would also be the only country in the CIS engaged in the elaboration of a comprehensive long-term low carbon development plan. The project's approach of using an integrated vertical of environmental policy tools, such as monitoring of emission reductions, modelling of emission forecasts, harnessing carbon markets and preparation of long-term climate policies on their basis has not been applied previously on a similar scale in the former Soviet Union. III. PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES The Project activities will consist of four components: 1. New generation models and comprehensive projections of GHG emissions The project will develop new generation models and comprehensive projections of GHG emissions with a view to increase the understanding of the country’s emission trends and develop new and effective policies for building a low carbon economy. To this purpose the project will: 1.1 Carry out a detailed sectoral analysis of Ukraine's greenhouse gas emissions, with the view of identifying specific emission trends and analysing their causes, including: 1.1.1 Identification and selection of sectors and subsectors 1.1.2 Analysis of historic emission trends and factors that have contributed to their development 1.1.3 Identification and analysis of main emissions drivers 1.1.4 Analysis of linkages between economic development, development of the identified sectors and the growth of respective sectoral emissions 1.2 Carry out sectoral economic analysis 1.2.1 Development of the specific fortcasting models of certain sectors Ukrainian economy, depending on their respective contribution to national GHG emission levels (energy, heat supply, etc) 1.3 Incorporation of available sector-specific Marginal Abatement Cost curves NEIA will provide project team amd Responsible Partner with the sector-specific Marginal Abatement Cost curves developed within the framework of complementary project financed by EBRD. 1.4 Develop new generation of greenhouse gas models that will be suited for sectoral emission modelling and can be adjusted regularly based on updated bottom-up information about sectoral and installation-level emissions. This will include: 5 1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 1.4.4 Review of existing projections/models, assessment of existing forecasts Elaboration of Conceptual approach to GHG model (predesign) Building of sectoral model shell Development of interfaces with economic and sectoral growth projections, MAC curves, GHG effects of low carbon growth strategies and policies 1.4.5 Development of reconciliation/alignment approach vs empirical data 1.4.6 Model testing and refinements 1.4 Prepare comprehensive projections of GHG emissions by sources and their sequestration by sinks for the periods up to 2020 and up to 2050 with and without implementation of climate change policies and measures: - business-as-usual - taking into account policies as measures as identified in the low carbon development strategy 1.4.1 Description of business as usual (BAU) scenario including sensitivities 1.4.2 Run of BAU projections based on mainstream assumptions and sensitivities 1.4.2 Development of 2020/2050 projections based on selected assumptions regarding climate change policy 1.5 Organize stakeholder consultations and broad outreach on the findings 1.5.1 Organizing stakeholder consultations to inform about the findings and assumptions of the model 1.5.2. Providing training to NEIA and local consultants on the use of the model Point Carbon will provide the international expertise on GHG modelling and analysis and will be supported in it by local expert teams. UNDP Ukraine will be in charge of organizing stakeholder consultations and outreach, as well as in charge of hiring the local experts for the task. The models will be handed over to the government on completion of the project to enable the government to update greenhouse gas projections regularly based on the up-to-date scenarios of the country’s socio-economic development. 2. Development of low carbon development plan Building on the outputs of the modelling work, the project will assist the Government of Ukraine in identifying and prioritizing a set of comprehensive integrated long-term greenhouse gas mitigation policies and measures that could serve as a foundation of a broad policy framework for achieving low carbon growth. The project will work closely with national stakeholders in assessing priorities, emission reduction potential and feasibility of a range of possible actions and initiatives directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing absorption by sinks, and will provide specific recommendations with regards to their implementation. Specifically the project will carry out: 2.1 Identification of policies and measures for low carbon growth that can be implemented in Ukraine. 2.2 Assessment of the mitigation potential of identified policies and measures 6 2.3 Provision of support for low carbon policy analysis through short analytical papers on economic analysis of policy options 2.4 Impact assessment of identified policies and measures at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels; development of BAU economic scenarios of Ukraine’s development to 2020 and 2050, including but not limited to official government forecasts and development strategies. 2.5 Analysis of alternative schemes to finance different strategies with special reference on proceeds from Post Kyoto Instruments 2.6 Provision of short-term, ad hoc expertise and consulting to decision-makers and key stakeholders for current topics on the political agenda 2.7 Preparation and presentation of the concept of a low carbon development plan of Ukraine setting out a vision of the country’s new development path up to 2020 and 2050. The concept will be prepared in close collaboration with the various branches of the government of Ukraine, allowing for its comprehensive consideration, feedback and follow-up. We anticipate strong participation of local consultants to be able to resolve specific issues that might arise out of the consultation process. 2.8 Assistance to the Government of Ukraine in carrying out a broad stakeholder consultation process, including high-level consultations, to support the development of the concept, involving relevant ministries, government agencies, and civil society organizations. Implementation of Package 2 envisages close collaboration between Point Carbon, DIW, and UNDP. As the leading expert organization, Point Carbon will coordinate the preparation, formulation and presentation of low carbon emission strategy document. Point Carbon will be supported by DIW expertise in economic analysis, while UNDP will serve as a convener of the stakeholder process. 3. Preparing for introduction of a domestic emissions trading scheme The government of Ukraine has identified emissions trading as one of the top priorities for its climate change mitigation policy. The project will assist the government in preparing the groundwork for the eventual introduction of an emissions trading system in Ukraine. This will involve 3.1 Supporting relevant legal and regulatory analysis, legislative proposals, provide necessary analytical support to enable their submission to the parliament of Ukraine 3.1.1 Review of the current legislative proposals 3.1.2 Assessment of adequacy, identification of inconsistencies, assessment of improvement potential of the current legislative drafts 3.1.3 Analytical response to feedback from stakeholder consultations 7 3.2 Carrying out broad stakeholder consultations with regards to the concept and potential design of the domestic emissions trading scheme in Ukraine; 3.2.1 Preparing a consultation paper or a series of papers as a basis for a broad consultation process about the main features and implications of an emissions trading system. The paper will include various issues selected in agreement with the Ukraine government, including but not limited to presentation of design options, process issues, economic impacts, international linking, etc. 3.2.2 Organizing and contributing content at two stakeholder consultation meetings and one open meeting with public. 3.2.3 Compiling and structuring the main responses from the consultation process 3.3 Preparing analysis to inform the development of the scheme's main elements, such as its goals and objectives, aggregate and sectoral caps, approaches and methods of installation-level allocation, MRV standards and other; The current legislative proposals only partially address the critical issues and legislative provisions required to set up an emissions trading program. While we do not expect that the legislative process would result in a decision regarding the set up of the ETS, which could be covered through government regulations, it would be well informed by a structured and analytical approach to design of market based mechanisms as well as an elaboration of the process steps required to plan and implement such markets. 3.3.1. Preparing a roadmap to establishing an emission trading scheme. The roadmap will establish the required activities and milestones in the process of establishing an emission trading program including, but not limited to identification of required research, data collection, modelling and studies, establishment of appropriate governance and regulatory structures, options for linking with international programs, stakeholder consultations, legislative proposals, detailed regulations, implementation processes. The roadmap should also provide an indication of the stages of the regulatory process required for the adoption and operationalisation of a domestic ETS, prioritisation of issues that need to be adopted by law and issues that can be resolved through direct government resolutions. 3.3.2 Preparing a design options discussion document. This document will inform the government of Ukraine in terms of their understanding and assessment of an emissions trading program as a greenhouse gas abatement policy instrument. The document will outline the design of a cap and trade program and discuss the range of design options as well as discuss a number of critical choices governments need to make during the design and implementation of a trading program. Such critical decisions include, but are not limited to the role of emission trading in relation to other greenhouse gas reduction policies, the coverage of the program in terms of gases and covered sectors, the allocation methodologies, the tightness of the cap, safety valves, role of carbon credits such as CDM, linking to international programs. The document will discuss the various options and relate choices to various criteria such as implications for the stakeholders, efficiency of program, ease of regulation, etc . 3.4 Assessing data needs and facilitating improvement of installation-level data collection to inform the development of the national allocation plan; 8 3.4.1 Identification of data needs in support of the planning and modelling of an emissions market including data needs of optional allowance allocation methodologies 3.4.2 Analyze the proposal for a national GHG monitoring system and assess the adequacy of proposed MRV regulations for the support of the emissions trading program. Suggest appropriate amendments. 3.4.3 Identify existing sources of data and required improvement in data access and reporting 3.4.4 Provide specific suggestions for improvement of the legislative and regulatory framework supporting GHG reporting from potential covered sectors/entities 3.5 Providing economic assessment of proposed domestic ETS 3.5.1 Run GHG market model to analyse effects of emission trading program such as carbon prices, reductions. 3.5.2 Run sensitivity analyses of selected design options 3.5.3 Provide input from emission market modeling to macro economic modeling 3.6 Assessment of possibilities for linking the ETS in Ukraine with other FSU countries, particularly Kazakhstan 3.6.1 Prepare a briefing paper exploring potential and assessing issues and opportunities for linking the ETS in Ukraine with emerging ETS systems in other FSU countries, particularly Kazakhstan 4. Capacity building and climate policy support The project will carry out additional supporting activities to strengthen the overall institutional capacity for change policy implementation in Ukraine. In particular, the project will support Ukrainian government in the application of project findings in international policy processes and intersection of domestic carbon policies and international climate negotiations. The project will also support engagement of other branches of government by assisting their participation in UNFCCC negotiating sessions, brining representatives of at least 3 different agencies, in addition to NEIA, e.g. Office of the President, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Energy. In addition, the project will work on engaging also representatives of the Parliament in the international negotiating process. A small part of the project budget is reserved in order to improve the measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions, in particular by building capacity to implement 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines and to address recommendations of UNFCCC Expert Review Teams, contributing towards the monitoring of the project’s performance. Specifically the work tasks under package 4 will include: 9 4.1 Strengthening the overall institutional capacity for climate change policy implementation in Ukraine. 4.1.1 Outreach activities with the aim to create broader official and political engagement in climate change negotiations. The project team will work on ensuring participation of representatives of at least 3 different agencies, in addition to NEIA, in the UNFCCC process, e.g. Office of the President, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Energy and their appropriate briefing before the sessions. In addition, the project will work on engaging also representatives of the Parliament in the international negotiating process. 4.1.2 Advice on institutional capacity building and application of project findings in international policy processes 4.1.3 Technical support to the government on issues of intersection of domestic carbon policies and international climate negotiations 4.1.4 International outreach of Ukraine’s climate change policies, presentation of Ukraine’s low-carbon development strategy. 4.2 Improve the measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions Improve capacity to implement 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines and to address recommendations of UNFCCC Expert Review Teams on GHG inventories, contributing towards the monitoring of the project’s performance. 5. Monitoring of low carbon policies Post-project monitoring of implementation of low carbon measures and their effectiveness. 10 IV. RESULTS AND RESOURCES FRAMEWORK Intended Outcome as stated in the Country Programme Results and Resource Framework: Government of Ukraine adopts policy frameworks and mechanisms to ensure reversal of environmental degradation, climate change mitigation and adaptation, prevention and response to natural and man-made disasters Outcome indicators as stated in the Country Programme Results and Resources Framework, including baseline and targets: Indicator: # of active green investment schemes (GIS)and energy efficient (EE) projects Baseline: in 2010 (0 GIS and 250 EE- projects) Target: 100 GIS and 500 EEprojects Applicable Key Result Area (from 2012-16 Strategic Plan): Core Area III – Environment and climate change Partnership Strategy Project title and ID (ATLAS Award ID): INTENDED OUTPUTS Specify each output that is planned to help achieve the outcome. For each output, include a baseline with associated indicators and targets to facilitate monitoring of change over time. Each output shall ultimately become a Project ID in Atlas. Output 1 New generation models and comprehensive projections of GHG emissions Baseline: Indicators: OUTPUT TARGETS FOR (YEARS) Use this column for more complex projects where an output takes more than one year to produce. INDICATIVE ACTIVITIES List activity results and associated actions needed to produce each output or annual output targets. Each activity result shall ultimately become an Activity ID in Atlas. Targets (year 1) Identification and selection of sectors for sectoral GHG analysis Analysis of historic emission trends and factors that have contributed to their development Identification and analysis of main emissions drivers Analysis of linkages between economic development, development of the identified sectors and the growth of respective 1 2 3 Carry out a detailed sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, with the view of identifying specific emission trends and analysing their causes Sectoral Economic Analysis development of the specific forecasting models of certain sectors Ukrainian economy (energy, heat supply, etc), including incorporation of available sector-specific MAC curves Develop new generation of greenhouse gas models that will be suited for sectoral emission modelling and can be adjusted regularly based RESPONSIBLE PARTIES SEIA, UNDP, Point Carbon, DIW Econ INPUTS USD 741,000 sectoral emissions Review of existing projections/models, assessment of existing forecasts Forecasting models of certain sectors of Ukrainian economy, including incorporation of available sectorspecific MAC curves Conceptual approach to GHG model – predesign Sectoral model shell Development of interfaces with economic and sectoral growth projections, MAC curves, GHG effects of low carbon growth strategies and policies Development of reconciliation/alignment approach vs empirical data Model testing and refinements Description of business as usual (BAU) scenario including sensitivities Run of BAU projections based on mainstream assumptions and sensitivities 4 on bottom-up information about sectoral and installation-level emissions Prepare comprehensive projections of GHG emissions for the periods up to 2020 and up to 2050 with and without implementation of climate change polices and measures; 1) business as usual, 2) taking into account policies and measures as identified in the low carbon development strategy. 5 Targets (year 2) 2020/2050 projections based on selected assumptions re climate change Stakeholder consultations on the findings and assumptions of the model 12 Training for NEIA and local consultants 1. Identification of policies Output 2 Development of low Targets (year 1) measures for low carbon growth carbon development strategy mitigation policies and Baseline: Indicators: measures are identified and evaluated mitigation potential of identified policies and measures is assessed series of analytical papers providing shortterm, ad hoc expertise and consulting to decision-makers and key stakeholders development of economic scenarios of Ukraine’s development to 2020 and 2050 assessment of macroeconomic and sectoral impact of identified policies and measures assessment of financing options for implementing Ukraine’s low carbon strategy and its elements initial stakeholder consultations on the elements of the low carbon strategy Targets (year 2) formulation of the concept of a low carbon development plan of Ukraine Comprehensive stakeholder consultations, including high-level Follow-up analysis and 2. Assessment of the mitigation potential of identified policies and measures 3. Provision of support for low carbon policy analysis through short analytical papers on economic analysis of policy options 4. Impact assessment of identified policies and measures at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels; development of BAU economic scenarios of Ukraine’s development to 2020 and 2050, including but not limited to official government forecasts and development strategies. 5. Analysis of alternative schemes to finance different strategies with special reference on proceeds from post-Kyoto instruments 6. Provision of short-term, ad hoc expertise and consulting to decisionmakers and key stakeholders for current topics on the political agenda 7. Preparation and presentation of the concept of a low carbon development plan of Ukraine setting out a vision of the country’s new development path up to 2020 and 2050. 8. Assist the Government of Ukraine in carrying out a broad stakeholder consultation process to support the development of the concept, involving relevant ministries, government agencies and civiel society organizations 13 SEIA, UNDP, Point Carbon, DIW Econ USD 1,285,200 based on the feedback received from consultations Output 3 Preparing for Targets (year 1) introduction of a domestic review of the current legislative proposal emissions trading scheme Baseline: Indicators: consultation paper roadmap to establishing an emission trading scheme design options discussion document identification of data needs analytical support to estimate implications of a preliminary emission trading proposal carbon market modelling of emission trading system input from analysis of emission trading to macroeconomic modelling Targets (year 2) organize and present at stakeholder meetings compile results of stakeholder meetings discussion paper on findings of the stakeholder consultation process recommendations for the establishment of an national GHG monitoring system input to legislative/regulatory actions to improve data access analysis of design options – interaction 1. Support relevant legal and regulatory analysis, legislative proposals, provide necessary analytical support to enable their submission to the parliament of Ukraine. 2. Carrying out broad stakeholder consultations with regards to the concept and potential design of the domestic emissions trading scheme in Ukraine 3. Preparation of analysis to inform the development of the scheme's main elements, such as its goals and objectives, aggregate and sectoral caps, approaches and methods of installation-level allocation, MRV standards and other. 4. Support in developing a national allocation plan 5. Economic assessment of proposed domestic ETS 6. Assessment of possibilities for linking the ETS in Ukraine with other FSU countries, particularly Kazakhstan 14 SEIA, UNDP, Point Carbon, DIW Econ USD 761,600 with economic modelling assessment of the possibilities of linking Ukrainian ETS with other FSU countries, particularly Kazakhstan legal and regulatory analysis of specific hurdle issues within the legislative proposals Output 4 Capacity building and Targets (year 1) climate policy support Baseline: Indicators: participation of representatives of Ukrainian agencies other than NEIA in UNFCCC negotiating sessions. technical analysis on issues of intersection of domestic carbon policies and international climate negotiations advice on application of project findings in international policy processes organizing of side events at UNFCCC sessions promoting the project and Ukraine’s climate change policies 1. Strengthening the overall institutional capacity for climate change policy implementation in Ukraine. 2. Improve the measurement, reporting and verification of greenhouse gas emissions, in particular by building capacity to implement 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines and to address recommendations of UNFCCC Expert Review Teams Targets (year 2) presentation of Ukraine’s low-carbon development strategy internationally timely and satisfactory resolution of the recommendations of UNFCCC Expert 15 SEIA, UNDP, Point Carbon USD 244,800 Review Teams on GHG inventories Output 5 Monitoring Targets (year 1) implementation Baseline: Indicators: monitoring report on implementation of low carbon measures and their effectiveness 1. Post-project monitoring of implementation of low carbon measures and their effectiveness. Targets (year 2) monitoring report on implementation of low carbon measures and their effectiveness - 16 SEIA, UNDP, DIW Econ USD 54,400 V. MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS Project Organisation Structure Project Board Senior Beneficiary Executive Senior Supplier Government of Ukraine State Environmental Investment Agency UNDP, BMU Project Assurance UNDP Project Manager Project Support Responsible Party Responsible Party Project Team Point Carbon DIW Econ Locally Recruited Experts Implementation of the project will be guided by UNDP Programme and Operations Policies and Procedures (POPPs) under the National Execution modality, as is the norm for the programmes and projects supported by the United Nations system. The UNDP Executive Board (former Governing Council) has highlighted that the execution of the projects by the governments is an effective way to build capacities and promote the institutions sustainability (UNDP Governing Council decisions 90/21 and 91/27). National execution is considered to be the norm since it is expected to contribute most effectively to: Greater national self-reliance by effective use and strengthening of the management capabilities, and technical expertise of national institutions and individuals, through learning by doing; Enhanced sustainability of development programmes and projects by increasing national ownership of, and commitment to development activities; Reduced workload and integration with national programmes through greater use of appropriate national systems and procedures.) Please see the standard Project Management Arrangements adopted for this particular project below. Two types of the participatory bodies are envisaged under this modality: Project Board (PB), which is a project governing body mandatory under UNDP POPPs. The Project Board approves project work plan and authorises project revisions as necessary. This group contains three roles: 1) Executive (role represented by NIP) that holds the project ownership and chairs the group, 2) Senior Supplier (role represented by UNDP and BMU) that provides guidance regarding the technical feasibility of the project, and 3) Senior Beneficiary (role represented by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine or any other state body duly authorized by the Government of Ukraine for coordination of the international technical assistance) that ensures the realization of project benefits from the perspective of project beneficiaries. Potential members of the Project Board are reviewed and recommended for approval during the Local Project Appraisal Committee (LPAC) meeting. PB meets every six months on the initiative of the National Project Director (NPD). The Project Steering Committee (PSC), an advisory body that will be established for the project to give advice and guide project implementation, chaired by the National Project Director. The PSC will consist of representatives of all key stakeholders and will ensure the inclusion of community level interests. Potential PSC participants will be NEIA, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Environment, UNDP, BMU as well as Point Carbon and DIW-Econ in a capacity of the Responsible Parties. The PSC will monitor the project’s implementation, provide guidance and advice, and facilitate communication, cooperation, and coordination among stakeholders and other project partners. At the initial stage of project implementation, the PSC may, if deemed advantageous, wish to meet more frequently to build common understanding and to ensure that the project is initiated properly. MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENT This project will be implemented under Country Programme Action Plan 2012-2016 as the Nationally Implemented (NIM) Project with the State Environmental Investment Agency as the National Implementing Partner (NIP). The NIP shall be responsible for the overall management of the project, primarily with regard to the responsibility for the achievement of the outputs (results), impact and objectives from the side of the Government of Ukraine. Similarly, the NIP will be accountable to UNDP for the use of project resources. NIP mechanism of project implementation ensures a principal role of the state in the project activities and national ownership for the projects results with the UNDP, Project Team and Responsible Partners (Point Carbon and DIW Econ) providing expert and technical support without substitution of the national structures/mechanisms. The ultimate responsibility in the NIP for managing the project will be placed on a senior Government official who shall be designated as the National Project Director (NPD). It is expected that the NPD will devote significant part of the working time on the project. Duties and responsibilities of the NPD are described by the NPD Handbook. In the fulfilment of its responsibilities to achieve the results, the NPD will get support from the Project Board (PB). The authority of the NPD will be delegated to the Project Manager (PM) for day-to-day implementation management. When guidance is required by the Project Manager (PM), including recommendation for UNDP and NIP on approval of project revisions, the PB is responsible for making on a consensus basis management decisions for a project. Project reviews by PB are made at designated decision points during the running of a project, or as necessary when raised by the Project Manager. This group is consulted by the Project Manager for decisions when PM tolerances (i.e. constraints normally in terms of time and budget) have been exceeded. Page 18 The Project Manager has the authority to run the project on a day-to-day basis on behalf of the Project Board within the constraints laid down by the Project Board. The Project Manager is responsible for day-to-day management and decision-making for the project. The Project Manager’s prime responsibility is to ensure that the project produces the results specified in the project document, to the required standard of quality and within the specified limits of time and cost. Project implementation will be governed by provisions of the Project Document and UNDP POPPs. The project will utilize a direct payment modality. Governance of the Project will be supported through annual work planning as well as reporting and monitoring the delivery of results and impact on the basis of the results framework. The annual work plans as well as progress reporting will be the responsibility of the project management and will be approved by NPD in close consultation with UNDP. The work plan will be implemented upon its endorsement by NIP and UNDP. The endorsed work plan will serve as an authorization to the Project Manager to disbursement of funds and project implementation. Implementation responsibility will be put on the Project Manager in close partnership with the NIP in terms of ownership and UNDP – in terms of advisory support. CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS AND RESPONSIBILITY OF PARTNERS UNDP will keep overall responsibility for the implementation of the project. UNDP will undertake the administrative management of the project, contracting of the local consultants as well as organization stakeholder consultations, including high-level meetings, with the Ukrainian government. Point Carbon will lead the substantive management of the project. In terms of the project staff, UNDP will hire a Project Manager; Point Carbon will supply the project’s Chief Technical Advisor. BMU-nominated experts DIW Econ will act as a partner responsible for the economic analysis in the project. Implementation of the project will be guided by UNDP Programme and Operations Policies and Procedures (POPPs) under the National Implementation modality. The National Environmental Investment Agency in the capacity of the National Implementing Partner (NIP) shall be responsible for the overall management of the project, primarily with regard to the responsibility for the achievement of the outputs (results), impact and objectives from the side of the Government of Ukraine. Similarly, the NIP will be accountable to UNDP for the use of project resources. Point Carbon and DIW Econ will act as the Responsible Parties liable for the respected components of the project. The funds for the Responsible Parties will be allocated in the annual budgets and will be realised by tranches under the special individual agreements against delivery of agreed outputs. UNDP POPPs defines Responsible Party as “partners that have been engaged by the implementing partner to carry out activities within a project. If designated as implementing partner, a competitive process must be undertaken, but it is not considered a procurement action (the Local Project Appraisal Committee reviews the proposal to designate the responsible party and verifies its competitiveness)”. Page 19 VI. MONITORING FRAMEWORK AND EVALUATION In accordance with the programming policies and procedures outlined in the UNDP User Guide, the project will be monitored through the following: Within the annual cycle On a quarterly basis, a quality assessment shall record progress towards the completion of key results, based on quality criteria and methods captured in the Quality Management table below. An Issue Log shall be activated in Atlas and updated by the Project Manager to facilitate tracking and resolution of potential problems or requests for change. Based on the initial risk analysis submitted (see annex 1), a risk log shall be activated in Atlas and regularly updated by reviewing the external environment that may affect the project implementation. Based on the above information recorded in Atlas, a Project Progress Reports (PPR) shall be submitted by the Project Manager to the Project Board through Project Assurance, using the standard report format available in the Executive Snapshot. a project Lesson-learned log shall be activated and regularly updated to ensure on-going learning and adaptation within the organization, and to facilitate the preparation of the Lessons-learned Report at the end of the project a Monitoring Schedule Plan shall be activated in Atlas and updated to track key management actions/events Annually Annual Review Report. An Annual Review Report shall be prepared by the Project Manager and shared with the Project Board. As minimum requirement, the Annual Review Report shall consist of the Atlas standard format for the QPR covering the whole year with updated information for each above element of the QPR as well as a summary of results achieved against pre-defined annual targets at the output level. Annual Project Review. Based on the above report, an annual project review shall be conducted during the fourth quarter of the year or soon after, to assess the performance of the project and appraise the Annual Work Plan (AWP) for the following year. In the last year, this review will be a final assessment. This review is driven by the Project Board and may involve other stakeholders as required. It shall focus on the extent to which progress is being made towards outputs, and that these remain aligned to appropriate outcomes. Page 20 VII. LEGAL CONTEXT This project document shall be the instrument referred to as such in Article 1 of the SBAA between the Government of (country) and UNDP, signed on (date). Consistent with the Article III of the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement, the responsibility for the safety and security of the executing agency and its personnel and property, and of UNDP’s property in the executing agency’s custody, rests with the executing agency. The executing agency shall: a) put in place an appropriate security plan and maintain the security plan, taking into account the security situation in the country where the project is being carried; b) assume all risks and liabilities related to the executing agency’s security, and the full implementation of the security plan. UNDP reserves the right to verify whether such a plan is in place, and to suggest modifications to the plan when necessary. Failure to maintain and implement an appropriate security plan as required hereunder shall be deemed a breach of this agreement. The executing agency agrees to undertake all reasonable efforts to ensure that none of the UNDP funds received pursuant to the Project Document are used to provide support to individuals or entities associated with terrorism and that the recipients of any amounts provided by UNDP hereunder do not appear on the list maintained by the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1267 (1999). The list can be accessed via http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/committees/1267/1267ListEng.htm. This provision must be included in all sub-contracts or sub-agreements entered into under this Project Document. Page 21 VIII. ANNEXES Annex 1: Risk Analysis. Risk Rating Mitigation approach The low carbon development strategy does not recieve sufficient backing of the wider Ukrainian government. Medium The project foresees a wide stakeholder consultation strategy, with a flexibility to react on issues raised by other ministries and agencies. The engagement of other ministries will be ensured through creation of a an advisory project panel soon into the start of the project. Various stakeholders show lack of initiative to cooperate Low The involvement of key representatives from relevant agencies and organizations at an early stage will help strengthen the legitimacy of policy and institutional reforms. Lack of data to carry out quality estimations and forecasts Low Ukraine regularly submits National Inventory Reports to UNFCCC and has a record of GHG emissions from 1990 to 2008. Additionally, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine provides comprehensive statistical data. Lack of engagement of the industry in the ETS elaboration Low A great number of Ukraine’s large scale industrial companies own facilities in the EU, and operate under EU ETS. There already exists significant understanding of the carbon market and an expectation that development of a domestic emissions trading market is inevitable in the future. Lack of expertise and capacities limit the success of project processing Low UNDP Ukraine successfully operates substantial portfolio of projects, has clear procedures and expert data-bases enabling the involvement of the most talented national and international expertise for its projects. Annex 2: Implementing partners 1. Implementing partner Name Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company Institution Private sector Postal code, town/city Akersgata 55, 0180 Oslo, Norway Country Norway Legal form Public Limited Company Non-profit status: Total staff 200 Staff for the project 12 Year established 2001 Turnover [€/year] 21 million Experience in the region [years] target yes 3rd floor no 6 years Experience of activities relevant for the project 9 years [years] Expertise and experience relevant for the project Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company is a world-leading provider of independent news, analysis and consulting services for European and global Page 22 power, gas and carbon markets. Point Carbon’s comprehensive services provide professionals with market-moving information through monitoring fundamental information, key market players and business and policy developments. Point Carbon has had an office in Ukraine since 2004, working on climate change policy and carbon market developments. Function/role in the proposed project Point Carbon will contribute to the project through its unrivalled experience in mathematical and economic modelling, forecasting methodologies, identification and assessment of mitigation policies, advice on establishment of an emissions trading scheme, as well as support in the UNFCCC negotiations. Page 23 2. Implementing partner Name DIW econ GmbH Institution Private Sector Postal code, town/city 10117 Berlin Country Germany Legal form GmbH Non-profit status: Total staff 13 Staff for the project 6 Year established 2007 Turnover [€/year] 1200000 Experience in the region [years] yes no target 13 Experience of activities 13 relevant for the project [years] Expertise and experience relevant for the project see "projects" Function/role in the proposed project Economic analysis, support with evaluation of policies and measures Annex 4: Carbon Monitoring The project will not result in direct emission reductions. The goal of the project is to enable Ukraine to design long-term low carbon development policies, which will result in reduction of emissions on the national level. Exact level of emission reduction potential will be discovered over the course of the project. Ukraine is an Annex I country and reports its emission reductions and absorption by sinks on an annual basis. In addition, the project envisages a small budget to allow Ukrainian experts to improve the quality of GHG reporting. Upon conclusion of the project, a monitoring report on the implementation of low-carbon measures and their effectiveness will be delivered to BMU. Annex 5: Terms of Reference for Steering/Advisory Committee To ensure effective, transparent and participatory development of the low Carbon Growth Strategy of Ukraine, political will to support and implement the strategy from the side of Ukrainian Government and policymakers as well as wide involvement the Ukrainian national authorities to the project activities an Advisory Committee on the Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth in Ukraine project will be established 1. The Committee will be formed by representatives of the following institutions: a. State Environmental Investment agency of Ukraine b. Secretariat of Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine c. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine d. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine e. Ministry of Energy of Ukraine f. The Ministry of Transport and Communications of Ukraine g. The Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine h. The Ministry of Regional Development and Construction of Ukraine i. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine (Department of Rural Development) j. The Ministry of Housing and Communal Services of Ukraine k. The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine l. The National Agency of Ukraine for Efficient Use of Energy m. Administration of the President of Ukraine n. Verhovna Rada (Parliament), o. BMU p. United Nations Development Programme, Ukraine q. European Union Delegation Office, Ukraine r. World Bank s. EBRD Should the need arise, representatives of other institutions, organizations and enterprises can be invited to participate in the Steering/Advisory Committee. 2. In compliance with main goal of the Project, the Advisory Committee will: Initiate and provide a platform for the a high-level policy dialogue on the low carbon growth of Ukraine Serve as a vehicle to enlist high-level governmental support to the development of the low carbon growth strategy; Strengthen the existing policy dialogue mechanisms in the government, insure interagency cooperation and explore other consultative mechanisms for low carbon growth of Ukraine; Insure project policy advise and recommendations integration to the relevant national policies and strategies; Assist in elaboration of draft legislation and other documents related to project implementation and its coordination with relevant national programmes; Coordinate and facilitate the participation of line ministries, relevant government and nongovernment agencies Ensure that regional and local authorities are duly informed about the project and benefited from its resultsfully authorized to participate. 3. The Advisory Committee is entitled to: Hear regular reports on Project implementation; Charge its members with assignments related to drafting of relevant legislation; Involve experts from governmental agencies and local authorities, upon consent of their superiors; Issue recommendations to the national executive and elected institution as per implementation of the Project. 4. The Advisory Committee is co-chaired by a Chairperson who is appointed by the Government of Ukraine and UNDP Ukraine on a rotation basis. UNDP Ukraine will coordinate and guide the committee’s activities. 5. Regular meetings of Steering Committee are held as frequently as needed and at least twice a year. 6. Meetings are chaired by Chairperson. 7. Decisions of Steering Committee taken within the limits of its competences have a nature of a recommendation and are obligatory for the review by national and local governments, as well as other enterprises, institutions and organizations. Page 28 8. Organizational, information, technical and financial support to the activities of Project Steering Committee is provided by the Project, UNDP and National Implementation Partner (NEIA). Project Management Unit acts as Secretariat of the Steering Committee. Page 29