Title: A framework for assessing the impacts on ecosystem services of energy provision in the UK: An example relating to the production and combustion life cycle of UK produced biomass crops (Short Rotation Coppice and Miscanthus) Author names and affiliations: Andrew Lovett, Trudie Dockerty: University of East Anglia Eleni Papathanasopoulou, Nicola Beaumont: Plymouth Marine Laboratory Pete Smith: University of Aberdeen Corresponding Author: Prof. Andrew Lovett, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ. Tel: 01603 593126. Email: a.lovett@uea.ac.uk Abstract To fully assess the sustainability of energy from home-grown biomass, the whole productioncombustion life cycle of the crops needs to be considered across a broad range of ecosystem service indicators. A sustainability framework needs It needs to consider impacts within the UK and beyond arising across the life cycle. This paper presents a framework for making such an assessment using data collected by two different literature summary techniques but processed using the same qualitative scoring system, recording matrices and graphical presentation of results. It illustrates what is known about the impacts on ecosystem services of UK produced biomass crops (Short Rotation Coppice and Miscanthus), suggesting a lack of research relating to upstream, operational and downstream elements of the energy life cycle, and a focus on the growth-cycle of the crops. The specific results obtained are sensitive to choices made in the literature review process, but the approach is useful in its ability to summarise a large amount of data and applicability to other energy feed-stocks, enabling a comparison of ecosystem impacts between energy systems. Keywords: ecosystem services, biomass crops, energy life cycle, impact analysis, sustainability appraisal Article Type: SI: 2014 RCUK IBC Manchester Highlights Presents a framework to assess ecosystem service impacts across life cycle stages The technique is applied to UK and global impacts of UK produced biomass crops Results suggest a research focus on the growth-cycle of crops Less research has been conducted on upstream, operational and downstream impacts The approach enables a comparison of ecosystem impacts between energy systems A framework for assessing the impacts on ecosystem services of energy provision in the UK: An example relating to the production and combustion life cycle of UK produced biomass crops (Short Rotation Coppice and Miscanthus) 1. Introduction Proposals to achieve decarbonisation of the future UK energy supply are set out in the government’s carbon plan [1]. The government has not set explicit targets for particular energy sectors, but aims to develop a low carbon technology combination with a focus on three main sources - renewable power (primarily wind and biomass), nuclear power, and coal and gas-fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS)[1]. In relation to future electricity generation, the focus is on three main low-carbon sources - renewable power (primarily wind and biomass), nuclear power, and coal and gas-fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS)[1]. The power sector gave rise to 27% (156 MtCO2-e) of UK total greenhouse gas emissions by source in 2010 and the expectation of the plan is that by 2050 emissions from this sector need to be close to zero, despite a rising demand for electricity of between 30% and 60%[1]. The government has not set explicit targets for particular energy sectors, but aims to develop a low carbon technology combination involving CCS, renewables and nuclear sources[1]. Potential future power generation mixes recently reviewed by the government’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) are shown in Figure 1; these indicate that energy from biomass is set to play an increasing role in future energy pathways for the UK. Figure 1 goes here. Studies have demonstrated that greenhouse gas (GHG) savings can be achieved through the addition of biomass crops to the energy mix by their replacement of fossil fuels -e.g. [2] [3] - and this has influenced government policy and financial support aimed at increasing biomass production [4] [5]. Various appraisals have been undertaken to both assess the impacts of increased biomass crop planting – e.g. [6] [7] - and develop means of assessing sustainability e.g. [8] [9]. To fully assess the sustainability of energy from home-grown biomass, the whole life cycle of the crops needs to be considered across a broad range of ecosystem service (ES) indicators. Such an evaluation also needs to consider both impacts within the UK and those elsewhere in the world arising across the lifecycle. Previous attempts to quantify the ecosystem service impacts of energy infrastructure include studies where a) single ecosystem service impacts (e.g. climate regulation) are examined for a particular life cycle stage (e.g. feedstock growth; [3]), b) multiple ecosystem service impacts are examined for a particular life cycle stage [11] single ecosystem service impacts are examined across multiple life cycle stages [12]. In this study, we outline a framework to assess multiple ecosystem service impacts across multiple life cycle stages. 1.1. Objective The research described in this paper was undertaken as part of the Energy and Environment Theme of the UK Energy Research Centres (UIKERC) Phase 2 programme [10]. It sought to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with a range of energy technologies (namely, gas, nuclear, wind and biomass) relevant to potential future pathways for the UK. A key requirement was to develop an approach that would be replicable across any energy system to enable eventual comparison and evaluation of ecosystem impacts between them. This paper describes the processes undertaken in the development and application of the methodological framework for the assessment, using home-grown biomass as an illustrative example, and provides a critique and evaluation of the approach with suggestions for further refinement. 2. Materials and methods A matrix framework (spreadsheet) was developed to represent elements of the life cycle of biomass used in the production of electricity, and encompassing a broad range of ecosystem services. Each cell in this matrix represent the potential areas of environmental impact. The approach developed was based on a review of available information and published research. Two different techniques for capturing evidence of impacts the evidence were employed, but a single process was used for recording and analysing the data. A flow chart illustrating the processes undertaken is shown in Figure 2. The text that follows describes the development of each of the key constituents in turn. Figure 2 goes here 2.1. Construction of broad life cycle table for biomass In order to consider which points in the energy production-combustion life-cycle might impact on ecosystem services it was necessary to scope out and construct a generalised life cycle table that would encompass key steps in not only the growth and processing of the crops but also in the provision and operation of power production plant. A table was devised (Box 1 in Figure 2) from a broad literature search and the processes identified were divided into four key stages following the format of IPCC [13] (Figure 9.7, p.730). That is – upstream (infrastructure provision), fuel cycle (extraction/ production and processing of feedstock), operation (power production) and downstream (decommissioning). In relation to the infrastructure element, the study focussed on the impacts associated with the key materials used in construction, namely – steel and concrete and their constituents. Table 1 shows the energy life cycle stages and processes for which quantification of local and global impacts was attempted. The end two columns make a distinction between local impacts (i.e. occurring within the UK) and global impacts (i.e. occurring outside of the UK but related to the UK use of this form of energy). The table features 31 lifecycle stages, 30 of which were relevant at the local scale and 6 at the global scale. Table 1 goes here 2.2. Ecosystem impacts Ecosystem services (ES) are commonly defined as the outputs of ecosystems from which people derive benefits [14]. There are several classifications of ES - e.g. [15] [16]. This study drew on the CICES classification [17] with the addition of a further category of supporting services, producing the second table referred to in Figure 2 (box 2). Table 2 gives a full list of the twenty seven categories of ES used in this study, which are divided into four broad groupings - supporting (processes and functions), provisioning (nutrition, water, materials, energy), regulation and maintenance (wastes, flow; physical, chemical and biotic environment) and cultural (use and intrinsic value). Table 2 goes here 2.3. Impact matrices and scores Tables 1 and 2 were combined to produce an impact grid or matrix in which each cell represented a possible area of impact. Table 3 shows the general format of this matrix. The actual matrix (spreadsheet) included the 31 lifecycle stages (rows) shown in Table 1 and the 27 ecosystem indicators (columns) shown in Table 2 giving a total of 837 potential impact data points. Table 3 goes here The next process (Box 3, Figure 2) was to develop a scheme to score the impacts which were to be recorded within each matrix. These were assigned according to a simple qualitative classification indicating whether the impact was negative (-- significant or - moderate), positive (++ significant or + moderate), none or negligible (0), conflicting (-/+); whether an impact was not applicable (n/a), or where there were no data (n/d). The process for determining the impact classification is described below. 2.4. Process for evaluating impact classification The techniques for evaluating within UK (local) impacts and global impacts were different. Assessment of global impacts derived from a ‘broad-brush’ approach based on researcher knowledge and an appraisal of internet-based searches of published and generally available information. The local assessment was based on a detailed, structured systematic literature review. The following Section (2.4.1) describes the process undertaken for the systematic review. The procedure for determining and allocating scores to both the local (UK) and global matrices, is discussed in Section 2.4.2. 2.4.1. Local (within UK) impact evaluation Systematic reviews are widely used in health research and are becoming more common in environmental studies -e.g. [18]. Implementing such a review typically involves five main stages. The first step requires the research question to be stated and search terms relevant to each of its elements (e.g. relating to the energy technology, ecosystem service etc.) to be determined. These terms are then inputted to the selected search engines in order to perform the database searches. Articles sourced from these searches are then examined against a list of inclusion criteria to determine whether they are relevant. All articles deemed suitable are then reviewed in full, impact type and classification extracted, and results summarised. Important advantages of the systematic review process concern replication and comparability, but the experience of conducting such reviews in this study highlighted a number of important issues that need to be recognised. These include: Which databases should be included? Citation databases enable searches for references to previously published works cited by authors in their bibliographies. However, not all publications are included in these databases. It may take several years before new journals are considered suitable for inclusion in a reputable database and, in addition, books and other types of publication are generally not included. As an example, the IPCC reports, which provide an important synthesis of research relating to climate change and energy use, are not present in Web of Science or the other databases examined in this study. Such contrasts can give rise to differences in coverage within and between disciplines. For example, databases such as Web of Science and Scopus tend to be more comprehensive in their coverage of medical and science research than social sciences or humanities [19]. The choice of databases is inevitably governed by practicality: the greater the number of search engines included, the larger the number of articles to be sourced and appraised. In this study, searches were based on ISI Web of Science (core data source), Scopus and GREENfile articles from 1993 onwards (i.e. last 30 years), in English. In addition, the grey literature database ‘Open Grey’ was consulted but on examination was deemed unsuitable as test searches did not reveal many useable references, and none of these were readily accessible. Due to the time it would have taken to obtain copies of documents, it was decided that this was not a viable source to include. What types of research articles should be considered (e.g. observational, experimental, modelling, meta-analyses or reviews)? To enable comparison with other energy systems examined in the wider UKERC study, a decision was taken to include only empirical studies conducted in the field or in the laboratory , i.e. observational or experimental research. Decisions on scope reflected researcher judgement, library advice and the time available to complete the reviews. To assess the effect of expanding these boundaries the analysis for biomass was extended to include ecosystem service impacts identified in modelling studies, and meta-analyses (of which there are many in relation to evaluating environmental impacts) along with review articles. Table 4 shows the contribution of each database and each study type category to the research results. Although Web of Science returned the majority of articles, the analysis indicates that including other databases does extend coverage, particularly with GreenFILE in the case of biomass. The inclusion of modelling studies, meta-analyses and review articles has the benefit of allowing more search results to be included in an analysis, but because the same basic research may be cited in more than one modelling study or review article it can give rise to some double counting. Just over 61% of all articles found for biomass were modelling or review articles. The potential for double counting has not been addressed in Table 4 as this broader analysis was simply for comparative purposes. All subsequent results presented in this paper are based only on experimental/ observational studies unless otherwise mentioned. Table 4 goes here How should search terms be defined? Additional issues arise over the construction of search terms used to query a database. The descriptions of the ecosystem services under examination (Table 2) provided the basis for the terms included. Refinement of search terms was iterative. Finding the ‘goldilocks zone’ of search terms (not too wide as to include unwanted references; not too tight as to exclude wanted references) is an art-form in itself. 2.4.2. Determining scores and allocating scores to the matrices Evaluating the evidence on impacts (whether for the local impacts through systematic review or global impacts from the general literature) inevitably involves some judgement on the part of the researcher undertaking the review. Benefits (e.g. regarding greenhouse gas amelioration) may be relative (e.g. gas is ‘better’ relative to coal; biomass is ‘better’ relative to gas or peat). In addition, an article may indicate a general direction of impact, but it is difficult to decide whether the impact is ‘significant’ (i.e. + + or - -) or ‘moderate’ (i.e. + or -). For example, according to a paper by Christian and Riche [20, p.131] “The results show that Miscanthus, once established, can lead to low levels of nitrate leaching and improved groundwater quality compared to arable crops.” In this case the score allocated was a ‘+’ for moderate water quality regulation during the growth cycle. As a rule, unless a publication mentioned ‘significant’ either in words or statistically, the impact was scored as ‘moderate’. Throughout the review of articles care was taken to score only the impacts reported in a study and not inferred consequences. However, where an article mentioned some impact that fell within the scope of the study the result was added to the matrix even if this information was not the focus of the paper. For some research it was quite straightforward to identify to which cell in the matrix a score should be assigned (e.g. the Christian and Riche example given previously). However, for the local matrix, the vast majority of the research relating to biomass was concerned with the growth cycle of the crop (i.e. within the ‘fuel-cycle’ part of the energy life cycle table). This concentrated focus of research into the same specific areas of the matrix gave rise to a further complication as different pieces of work could reach contrasting conclusions regarding impacts, and hence scores, so a further process was needed to allocate a final score in the matrix. Wherever possible the score was based on the modal value (i.e. the most frequently occurring value) - as indicative of a consensus view, but if there was a wide range of scores the final assignment represented the range of views (e.g. - / +). 3. Results Impact classifications from the systematic review or general literature search were recorded in the relevant (local or global) impact matrix spread sheet. The numbers of individual cell scores were then summed for each of the four broader life cycle and ES categories, reformatted as percentages and used to generate graphs. A full description of the process for summarising the data and creating the graphs is given in Appendix A (Supplementary Materials). Dockerty et al. [19]. Figure 3 shows the results of (a) the local assessment of impacts on ecosystem services occurring within the UK as indicated by the systematic literature review and (b) global impacts on ecosystem services as indicated by the ‘broad-brush’ approach. Figure 3 goes here An obvious difference between Figure 3a and Figure 3b is with respect to the proportions of the matrices receiving scores other than ‘inconclusive’. Table 5 illustrates the narrow focus of research reported by the local systematic review in that although the local matrix had 810 potential data points (cells), impact scores from observational or experimental research were only found for 12 of these. (Table 5 shows that data for 59 cells would have been populated had the analysis included modelling studies and reviews). This means that the vast majority of cells in the local matrices/graphs are recorded as ‘inconclusive’. The global impacts summary (Figure 3b) has fewer ‘inconclusive’ scores than the local summary due to the ability of the compiler to assess impacts from a wider and more general knowledge base than permitted by the systematic review. Table 5 goes here 3.1. Local impacts Figure 3a illustrates that no upstream local impacts were identified from the literature review but there will inevitably be impacts associated with the construction of power stations that were not identified by this method. The vast majority of studies related to the growth cycle of the crop (i.e. only one or two stages within the fuel cycle category), though spanning a reasonably broad number of ES impacts. The main beneficial impacts relate to supporting ecosystem function/atmospheric regulation, with the addition of biodiversity, soil, water quality and pest and disease control benefits over conventional agricultural land uses. Negative impacts were reported on water availability and there were mixed views on the contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to bio-remediation. Interestingly, it notable that the negative scores for cultural ecosystem indicators are associated with the built infrastructure, which corresponds with the findings of a recent UK study of public attitudes to energy crops [21]. Figure 4 provides a comparison (based on the additional studies shown in Table 5) to illustrate how the results would be influenced by the inclusion of modelling studies and reviews. These add scores relating to greenhouse gas emission savings compared to other energy systems and others regarding issues of land-take, the food vs fuel debate and cultural concerns such as visual impacts. Figure 4 goes here 3.2. Global impacts The global matrix includes information relating to upstream impacts concerning construction materials and activities (concrete and steel production), and further details relating to fuel cycle impacts (e.g. greenhouse gas emission benefits and provisioning ecosystem service benefits). There are no global operational impacts as greenhouse gas emissions from combustion of the crops in UK power stations are treated as local impacts offset by growth of the crops. Downstream positive impacts relate to improved water availability when converting land back to conventional agriculture compared to biomass crops. (This factor was not recorded from the literature review, hence is missing from figure 3a but would equally apply to the UK). 3.3. Research consensus Scores allocated to a particular cell in the local impact matrix could be based on a single study, or might be the consensus view (modal score) from several references. The degree of agreement on the magnitude and direction of impact between studies (i.e. % of studies contributing to the modal score) can provide some insight into how certain the body of research is regarding that particular impact but using such an indicator can also mask some impacts. One example was in terms of atmospheric regulation services where the overall greenhouse gas benefits of biomass crops resulted in predominantly positive scores. However, the subsequent modal assignment masked research on volatile organic compound emissions from Miscanthus and short rotation coppice willow [22] which indicates negative impacts. Table 6 provides consensus data for the experimental/observational studies that contribute to the results shown in Figure 3a. In the case of the cell that represents regulating/bioremediation ecosystem service indicators there were a relatively large number of studies (11) investigating the bioremediation potential of short rotation coppice. These studies varied in scale, duration, method and detail, with contrasting findings. Consequently there were a wide range of scores with relatively few (18%) sharing the modal value. In other cases where an assessment could be made the degree of agreement was rather higher, typically 50-80%. Table 6 goes here 4. Discussion The discussion that follows firstly provides further commentary on issues relating to the approach and then on its utility in evaluating ecosystem service impacts for energy systems. 4.1 Evaluation of method: ‘broad-brush’ approach or systematic review? As previously indicated the global matrices are more likely to include a score for some impacts because they are based on a broader literature search plus researcher interpretation. However, as there was no standard for what could or could not be included there is potentially more subjectivity in the scoring than in the local matrix, so although the approach provides a greater amount of information this could be at the expense of confidence in its accuracy. It is also important to note that the method as implemented here does not allow the degree of consensus on impacts to be evaluated (except potentially through confirmation of scores by expert reviewers). The main benefit of using a systematic review approach is in providing a framework that is transparent and replicable. As the large gaps in Figure 3a illustrate however, the methodology for a systematic literature review does not necessarily produce a comprehensive assessment. The articles identified by this form of investigation are influenced by what is included in the search terms and also by what literature is actually present in a particular database. Overall the approach is wellsuited to discrete areas of research asking quite specific research questions, but it is harder to ensure comprehensive data capture when considering a broad topic such as examined here, comparing the impacts of multiple life cycle elements across 27 ecosystem services. Systematic literature review based solely on observational or experimental data makes obvious sense for health related studies, where this approach is widely used, in order to gather 'evidencebased' results. For environmental science and the evaluation of environmental impacts the experience of this study is that such a focus can be too narrow, particularly in terms of the types of impacts identified. In much environmental research the 'precautionary principle' is an important concept and it is common for relatively small numbers of experimental/ observational studies to be scaled up through modelling techniques to assess potential overall impacts. Without the inclusion of modelling studies it is quite possible for local matrices to be under-represented with respect to '+' or ‘-‘ scores as illustrated by the differences between Figure 3a and Figure 4. For example, greenhouse gas savings are generally assessed in the literature through statistical/modelling work rather than observation or experimental research. A final point about both matrices is that whichever technique was used to assess and score the literature, the results depend on how the framing categories, in this case the life cycle elements and ecosystem service indicators, have been defined. This is particularly relevant when translating the scores into the types of graphical representations shown in Figures 3 and 4. The underlying assumption in the percentage calculations is that each individual impact cell is of equal importance. However, this is unlikely to be the case. 4.2. Usefulness of the approach The definition, population with assessment scores, and summary in graphical form, of a matrix covering a comprehensive suite of ecosystem service indicators, against a broadly structured energy life cycle, provides a straightforward means of presenting a very large amount of data. Despite the limitations described, the approach taken enables the direction and types of ecosystem impact to be identified in particular areas of an energy life cycle. The example of biomass presented here using the systematic literature review approach highlights large areas of the life cycle that have not been examined in relation to environmental impacts, particularly with respect to potential impacts associated with infrastructure. However, expecting studies specific to the infrastructure of energy from biomass may be unrealistic, and the insights provided by the ‘broad brush’ approach may be the best available means of plugging the gaps. A benefit of the systematic review over the ‘broad brush’ approach is in highlighting where research effort has been focussed and what is the degree of consensus within specific research areas. Repeating the local and global reviews swapping the approaches may be a useful next step. In addition, a major benefit of the approach is the ability to compare multiple energy systems. Figure 5 shows results of applying the technique to natural gas. This generation system shows a much stronger signal with respect to negative impacts compared to biomass although again large areas of the local graph illustrate no evidence of ecosystem impact evaluation in much of the life cycle. Further comparative assessments are given in Dockerty et al. [19]. 4.3 Ecosystem impact findings As previously mentioned, the 34 research papers that contributed to the systematic review were confined to the fuel-cycle element of the biomass energy life cycle, and largely focussed on impacts arising from the growth cycle of the crop. The 11 papers on bioremediation included papers on the use of SRC to mitigate groundwater quality of landfill leachate [A], municipal wastewater [B], metals and arsenic on brownfield sites e.g. [C], [D]. Many of these were small-scale or of short duration, and findings ranged from positive to negative, that is, overall a mixed view, reflected in Figure 3. There were 10 papers concerning biodiversity impacts. A paper suggesting benefits to farmland birds during the establishment phase of a Miscanthus crop that would tail off as the plants became more established (Bellemy et al 2009) was given a +/- score. Other papers reported benefits of both SRC and Miscanthus to birds (e.g. Fry and Slater 2011, Sage et al 2010) and invertebrates (e.g. Semere and Slater 2007, Reddersen 2001), with low-intensity management and untreated headlands benefiting other wildlife (Semere and Slater 2007b). Hence the ‘lifecycle maintenance / habitat and gene pool protection’ indicator was allocated a positive score. Three papers reported the potential of biomass crops regarding carbon storage (atmospheric regulation indicator) but as previously mentioned, this category also included papers reporting volatile organic compound emissions from Miscanthus crops (Copeland et al 2012 , Crespo et al 2013). The carbon storage potential of the crops also equates to increased organic matter in soils and hence a positive score for the pedogenesis and soil quality regulation indicator. 5. Conclusions Both the ‘broad brush’ approach and systematic review have benefits and limitations, consequently it is probably better to regard them as complementary rather than stating that one produces the most correct/accurate results. As previously mentioned, a clearer understanding might be gained by having the local and global results on equal terms. That is, from also applying the broad-brush method at the local scale and the systematic review at the global scale. Important insights from this exercise concern the influence of how the parameters of systematic reviews are defined and the concentration of literature on particular elements of the overall life cycle. Either approach is relatively quick compared to an in-depth literature review but it is difficult to be certain all salient facts have been captured. The importance for some environmental impacts of considering modelling studies and review papers as well as observational or experimental research is also apparent. Additionally, there is the outstanding issue of the equal weighting of impacts across processes and the need to develop more effective weighting systems based on intensity and exposure of impacts. There are alternative approaches that could be employed for this kind of analysis. For example a Rapid Evidence Review [23] using a ‘review of reviews’ process could be investigated to ensure a more inclusive set of studies from which to draw conclusions. This could be particularly relevant given the importance of reviews by national and international organisations in the energy and climate change arena. Multi-criteria analysis or multi-criteria mapping approaches could be used to weight the ecosystem service impacts in trade-off analysis [24] [25] [26]. Bayesian Belief Networks could be used to value the effects of the ecosystem impacts for trade-off analysis based on monetary valuation. It is possible that benefit transfers could be used too, and potentially, it might be possible to utilise the valuation of impacts from other studies to help support decisions on alternative energy scenarios. Overall, in relation to biomass, most is known about the ecosystem impacts associated with the growth cycle of the crop (i.e. the fuel-cycle part of the energy life cycle). Less is known about the local upstream, downstream and operational impacts specific to this energy type. Although this study has focussed on home-grown biomass, in future, fuel cycle impacts will depend on whether there is a shift towards imported biomass materials and where such feed-stocks originate. If this is the case, the global component of this analysis will be of greater interest in assessing the ecosystem service impacts of UK use of this energy type, and its overall sustainability. Hence the overall approach presented in this work provides a useful addition to methods for sustainability appraisal. Acknowledgements The research presented in this paper drew upon work undertaken in the UKERC project ‘Assessing the global and local impacts on ecosystem services of energy provision in the UK’ (N/GOO7748/1). References [1] HM Government, The Carbon Plan: Delivering our low carbon future. London: Department of Energy & Climate Change. 2011. [2] Styles D. Jones MB. Miscanthus and willow heat production - An effective land-use strategy for greenhouse gas emission avoidance in Ireland? Energy Policy 2008; 36(1): 97-107. [3] Don A., Osborne B., Hastings A., Smiba U., Carter MS., Drewer J et al. Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon. Global Change Biology Bioenergy. 2012; 4: 372-391. Available from: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01116.x [4] Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, Department for Trade & Industry, Department for Transport (2007) UK Biomass Strategy. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London. 2007. [5] Department of Energy & Climate Change, Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, Department for Transport. UK Bioenergy Strategy. Department of Energy & Climate Change, London. 2012. [6] Karp A, Haughton AJ, Bonham DA, Lovett AA, Bond AJ, Dockerty TL, Sunnenberg G, Finch JW, Sage RB, Appleton KA, Riches AB, Mallott MD, Mallot VE, Cunningham MD, Clark S, Turner MM. Perennial Energy Crops: Implications and Potential. In: Winter M, Lobley M, editors. What is Land for? The Food, Fuel and Climate Change Debate. London: Earthscan. 2009. [7] Smith P, Taylor S, Lovett A, Taylor G, Firth SK, Finch J, Morison J, Moran D. Spatial mapping of Great Britain's bioenergy to 2050. Global Change Biology Bioenergy. 2014; 6(2): 97-98. [8] Bond A, Dockerty T, Lovett A, Riche AB, Haughton A J, Bohan DA, Sage RB, Shield I F, Finch JW, Turner MM and Karp A. Learning how to deal with values, frames and governance in Sustainability Appraisal. Regional Studies 2011; 45(8):1157-1170. DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2010.485181. [9] Haughton AJ, Bond AJ, Lovett AA, Dockerty TL, Sünnenberg G, Clark SJ, Bohan DA, Sage RB, Mallott MD,Mallott VE, Cunningham MD, Riche AB, Shield IF, Finch JW, Turner MM, Karp A. A novel, integrated approach to assessing social, economic and environmental implications of changing rural land-use: a case study of perennial biomass crops. Special Issue: Journal of Applied Ecology. 2009; 6(2): 315-322. Link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01623.x [10] Hinton L, Holland R, Ashley M, Carter Silk E, Thomas A, Tickner R, Hooper T, Wegg T, Beaumonth N, Cazenave P, Papthanasopoulou E, Scott S, Torres R, Austen M, Barrett J, Hiscock K, Eigenbrod F, Lovett A, Smith P, Taylor G. Bridging the Gap between Energy and the Environment. Highlights from a sysnthesis of research conducted within the UKERC Energy & Environment Theme. The UK Energy Research Centre; January 2014. [11] Rowe, R.L., Street, N.R., Taylor, G. Identifying potential impacts of large-scale deployment of dedicated bioenergy crops in the UK. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2009; 13: 271-290. [12] Wiedmann, T.O., Suh, S., Feng, K., Lenzen, M., Acquaye, A., Scott, K., Barrett, J.R. Application of hybrid life cycle approaches to emerging energy technologies – the case of wind power in the UK. Environmental Science and Technology 2011; 45: 5900-5907. [13] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2012. [14] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Washington D.C: Island Press. 2005. [15] de Groot RS, Wilson MA, Boumans RMJ. A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecological Economics 2002; 41: 393-408. [16] Fisher B, Turner RK, Morling P. Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making. Ecological Economics. 2009; 68: 643-653. [17] Haines-Young R, and Potschin M. (CICES Version 4: Response to consultation. Available at http://cices.eu, Centre for Environmental Management, University of Nottingham. 2012. [18] Collaboration for Environmental Evidence. Guidelines for Systematic Review and Evidence Synthesis in Environmental Management, Version 4.2. 2013. Available at http://www.environmentalevidence.org/Documents/Guidelines/Guidelines4.2.pdf. [19] University of Washington Libraries. Scopus and Web of Science comparison chart. 2014. Available at http://libguides.hsl.washington.edu/scopus. [20] Christian DG, Riche AB. (1998) Nitrate leaching losses under Miscanthus grass planted on a silty clay loam soil. Soil Use and Management 1998; 14(3); 131-135. [21]Dockerty, T., Dockerty, Tim., Lovett, A., Papathanasopoulou, E., Beaumont, N.,Wang, S. & Smith, P. Interactions between the Energy System, Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital. UKERC Working Paper. London, UK. UK Energy Research Council (UKERC). 2014. [21] Dockerty T, Appleton KJ, Lovett AA. Public opinion on energy crops in the landscape: Considerations for the expansion of renewable energy from biomass. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 2012; 55(9): 1134-1158. [22] Copeland N, Cape JN & Heal MR. Volatile organic compound emissions from Miscanthus and short rotation coppice willow bioenergy crops. Atmospheric Environment 2012; ( 60): 327-335. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.065 [23] What is a Rapid Evidence Assessment? Accessed from http://www.civilservice.gov.uk/networks/gsr/resources-and-guidance/rapid-evidenceassessment/what-is (28/07/14) [24] Davies G, Prpich G, Strachan N, and Pollard S. UKERC Energy Strategy under Uncertainties: Identifying techniques for managing uncertainty in the energy sector. London: UK Energy Research Council; 2014. UKERC Report UKERC/WP/FG/2014/001. UKERC [25] Stirling A. Science, precaution, and the politics of technological risk – Converging implications in evolutionary and social scientific perspectives. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2008: 1128: 95 – 110. [26] Stirling A. Keep it complex. Nature. 2010; 468(23/30 December 2010): 1029 – 1031. FIGURES Figure 1: Scenarios of current and potential future power generation mixes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Onshore wind Offshore wind Biomass /other renewables Renewables (all) Nuclear CCS CCC (2012) CCC (2013) CCC (2030) CCC (2030) CCC (2030) CCC (2030) Current Updated Ambitous Ambitous Ambitous Higher abatement nuclear renewables CCS energy scenario efficiency Gas CCGT Coal Derived from: Column 1 CCC (2013b); Column 2 CCC (2010); Columns 3 – 6 CCC (2013a). Committee on Climate Change. The Fourth Carbon Budget. Reducing emissions through the 2020s. (2010). London: Committee on Climate Change. (December 2010). Committee on Climate Change Fourth Carbon Budget Review – technical report. Sectoral analysis of the cost-effective path to the 2050 target. (2013a). London: Committee on Climate Change. Committee on Climate Change. Next steps on Electricity Market Reform – securing the benefits of low-carbon investment. (2013b) London: Committee on Climate Change. (May 2013). Figure 2: Overview of methodology Figure 3: Impacts on ecosystem services of biomass (Miscanthus/short rotation coppice willow) production and use in the UK a) Local impacts (within the UK) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Inconclusive (uncertain, not known, no data) 50% Conflicting impacts 40% Significant negative (detrimental) impact Moderate negative impact 30% No (or negligible) impact 20% Moderate positive impact 10% Significant positive (beneficial) impact UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE OPERATION Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Supporting Provisioning 0% DOWNSTREAM Method for local chart: systematic literature review - 30 lifecycle stages (observational/experimental studies only) (b) Global impacts (occuring outside of the UK but relating to UK use of this energy type) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Inconclusive (uncertain, not known, no data) Conflicting impacts 50% Significant negative (detrimental) impact 40% Moderate negative impact No (or negligible) impact 30% Moderate positive impact 20% Significant positive (beneficial) impact 10% UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE OPERATION Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Supporting Provisioning 0% DOWNSTREAM Method for global chart: researcher knowledge / broad internet infomation search - 6 lifecycle stages. Local Global Upstream Fuel Cycle Operation Downstream Total Matrix Matrix Local Local/Global * 7 3 5 1 8 0 5 1 25 5 25 5 Global 1 0 0 0 1 11 6 8 6 31 c) Life cycle stages Total 31 30 5 1 6 * these appear on both matrices Figure 4: Biomass systematic review including modelling and review papers Local impacts (within the UK) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Inconclusive (uncertain, not known, no data) 50% Conflicting impacts Significant negative (detrimental) impact 40% Moderate negative impact 30% No (or negligible) impact Moderate positive impact 20% Significant positive (beneficial) impact 10% UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE OPERATION Cultural Regulating Supporting Provisioning Cultural Regulating Provisioning Cultural Supporting Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting 0% DOWNSTREAM Method for local chart: systematic literature review - 30 lifecycle stages (all studies i.e. including modelling and reviews) Figure 5: Impacts on ecosystem services of natural gas production and use in the UK a) Local impacts (within the UK) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Inconclusive (uncertain, not known, no data) Conflicting impacts 50% Significant negative (detrimental) impact 40% Moderate negative impact 30% No (or negligible) impact 20% Moderate positive impact Significant positive (beneficial) impact 10% UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE OPERATION Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting 0% DOWNSTREAM Method for local chart: systematic literature review - 42 lifecycle stages (observational/experimental studies only) b) Global impacts (occuring outside of the UK but relating to UK use of this energy type) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Inconclusive (uncertain, not known, no data) Conflicting impacts 50% Significant negative (detrimental) impact 40% Moderate negative impact No (or negligible) impact 30% Moderate positive impact 20% Significant positive (beneficial) impact 10% UPSTREAM FUEL-CYCLE OPERATION Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting Cultural Regulating Provisioning Supporting 0% DOWNSTREAM Method for global chart: literature review / broad internet information search - 27 lifecycle stages. TABLES Table 1: Lifecycle table for energy production from UK Biomass Table 1: Life Cycle Process Table for Biomass Level 2 Process Matrix Rows Level 1 Lifecycle stage Level 3 Process – detail Local and/or Global Impact? Local (UK) Upstream (i.e. (1) construction of CHP power stations in the UK (2) construction of biomass processing facilities in the UK) Resource extraction 1 2 3 Material manufacturing 4 5 6 Component manufacturing 7 8 Fuel Cycle (i.e. fuel production and processing in the UK) Construction – (1) CHP power stations (2) biomass processing facilities Resource production 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Processing 16 Delivery to site Operation (i.e. CHP generation in the UK) 17 Combustion (generation of heat/power) 18 19 Concrete – quarrying sand and gravel [sea-bed] + transport [by sea] Concrete – quarrying limestone + transport Steel – mining of iron ore, coal, flux materials (e.g. limestone) and alloys (e.g. manganese) + transport [by land / sea] Concrete – cement production + transport Concrete – concrete production + transport Steel – steel production (70% new steel/blast furnace + 30% recycled steel/electric arc furnace) + transport [by land / sea] Concrete – component production + transport Steel – component production (e.g. girders, reinforcing rods, cables, nuts & bolts etc) + transport [by land / sea] Concrete + transport Steel + transport [by land / sea] Construction processes Source of Misc./SRC planting material Ground prep & planting Growth cycle treatments/ management Harvesting + transport Processing Misc./SRC to chips/pellets for direct combustion + transport Road haulage to power station Combustion of Misc./SRC chips/pellets to generate heat & power [via moving grates and fluidised bed direct combustion technologies and steam turbine or Organic Rankie Cycle (ORC) turbines for thermal energy. Heat accumulators accommodate variance in heat demand b] Combustion of Misc./SRC derived secondary fuels e.g. syngas [integrated within CHP process] Global YES e NO i YES d NO i NO c YES a, c YES d NO i YES NO YES c, j YES c YES YES YES j YES YES YES NO NO YES NO YES YES f YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO Maintenance 20 Operations 21 22 23 24 25 Downstream (i.e. decommissioning of CHP power stations in the UK and reversion of land to previous use). Dismantling Decommissioning 26 27 28 29 Disposal and recycling 30 31 Maintenance of plant & machinery + performance monitoring (efficiency and environmental standards) On-site storage Noise (ambient/exhaust) Liquid effluent management [boiler blow-down/turbine washing/pipe flushing and drain effluent containing suspended solids and chemicals. Requiring consent for discharge to public sewage system or containment and removal from site b] Management of other pollutants (e.g. oils/lubricants and other chemicals used to service machinery) Ash disposal from solid biomass fuels Steel / concrete - CHP power plant & biomass processing facilities Steel / concrete - CHP power plant & biomass processing facilities Reversion of infrastructure land to previous/new use Reversion of crop production land to agriculture Concrete (approx. 30% of UK aggregates come from recycled sources – transported/crushed – uses water) k Steel (highly recyclable – approx. 30% of UK steel comes from recycled sources) l YES NO YES YES NO NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES YES YES NO YES NO Based on Figure 9.7 Generalised lifecycle stages for an energy technology (p 730 IPCC, 2012 Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation). References a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j. k. l. IPCC, 2012 Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation, p 730 http://chp.decc.gov.uk/cms/ Iron and Steel Industry Activities Map (this project) source of data www.mrdata.ugs.gov http://www.globalcement.com/magazine/articles/706-the-british-cement-industry-in-2011-and-2012 http://qsr2010.ospar.org/media/assessments/p00434_Sand_and_Gravel_Summary_Assessment.pdf Nicola Yates & William MacAlpine, IACR, Rothampsted (pers com by email 07/08/13) Verhoest & Ryckmans (2012) Industrial Wood Pellet Report, LABORELEC / PellCert IEE/10/463/S12.592427 Sjoding & Panzarella (2013) Biomass CHP – How To - An Introduction, IDEA’s 26th Annual Campus Energy Conference, San Diego, California, February 21, 2013 http://www.northwestcleanenergy.org/NwChpDocs/Biomass%20CHP%20How%20to%20IDEA%20campus%2002 %202013.pdf Highley, D E (2005) The role of imports to UK aggregate supply, British Geological Survey http://www.celsauk.com/ (Cardiff based recycled-steel manufacturer) http://www.greenspec.co.uk/greening-of-concrete.php (recycling of concrete) http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-steel/ Table 2: Categories of ecosystem services Supporting Level 1 Regulation of Physico-Chemical Environment Flow Regulation Energy Non-food Biotic Materials Water Supply Nutrition Level 2 Description 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Processes and functions (e.g. nutrient cycling, photosynthesis) Terrestrial plants and animals for food Freshwater plants and animals for food Marine plants, algae and animals for food Water for human consumption Water for agricultural use Water for industrial and energy uses Plant and animal fibres and structures Chemicals from plants and animals Genetic materials Biomass based energy Renewable abiotic energy Bioremediation Dilution, filtration and sequestration Air flow regulation Water flow regulation Mass flow regulation Atmospheric regulation Water quality regulation Pedogenesis and soil quality regulation Noise regulation Lifecycle maintenance, habitat and gene pool protection Pest and disease control (incl. invasive alien species) Non-extractive recreation Information and knowledge Spiritual & symbolic Non-use Level 3 Description 1 Matrix Columns Source: based on the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES, Version 4.1; HainesYoung and Potschin, 2012), with the addition of a ‘Supporting’ category. Intellectual Representations of Ecosystem s (of environmen tal settings) Physical/ Experiential Use of Ecosystems (environmental setting) Regulation of Biotic Environment Regulati on of Biophysical Environment Cultural Regulation and Maintenance Provisioning Table 3: General example of framework used to assess energy supply options Ecosystem Services Life Cycle Stages Regulation and Maintenance Supporting (processes and functions) Provisioning (nutrition, water, materials, energy) Cultural (wastes, flow, physical, chemical & biotic environment) (use and intrinsic value) Upstream (infrastructure provision) Fuel Cycle (extraction/ production and processing of feedstock) Operation (power production) Downstream (decommissioning) Table 4: Summary of number of articles found by database and study type for biomass Study Type Databases queried Web of Science Scopus GreenFILE Total Articles Lab experiment - - 3 3 Field experiment 20 2 7 29 Observational study 2 - - 2 Meta-analysis - - - 0 Modelling study 23 1 10 34 Review 8 1 11 20 All Articles 53 4 31 88 Percentage of Total 61 4 35 100 Table 5: Matrix dimensions and papers contributing to Biomass systematic review Matrix characteristics Number Total life cycle stages identified (global and local) 31 Overall matrix size (no. of cells) 837 Local life cycle stages subject to systematic review 30 Number of cells relevant to systematic literature review 810 Experiment/observation studies Number of articles found 34 Number of scores from articles 43 Number of cells populated 12 All studies (i.e. including modelling studies and reviews) Number of articles found 88 Number of scores from articles 202 Number of cells populated 59 Table 6: Biomass systematic review: multi-reference score consistency Percentage Life Cycle Stage/ ES Group Consensus Impact Score Total No. of Scores Process-function - 1 Process-function -/+ 4 Water - 1 Energy 0 1 Bioremediation -/+ 11 Dilution wastes 0 1 Atmospheric Reg. + 5 60% Soil quality + 5 80% Water quality + 1 Reg. Biotic Env + 10 80% Pest/disease + 2 100% Process-function - 1 ES Type Agreement Fuel Cycle Supporting Provisioning Regulating Downstream Supporting Total no. of scores 43 50% 18%