Economically Optimal Use of Discrete Inputs AAE 575 Paul D. Mitchell Many inputs are discrete: Tillage system used: Conventional tillage, conservation tillage or no till Hybrid type planted: 100 day corn or 105 day corn Pest control: Bt or non-Bt, RR or non-RR crop, seed treatment or no seed treatment How do you choose the economically optimal use of discrete inputs? Calculus no longer works! Method: Calculate net returns (profit) for each level or type of discrete input and choose the input that gives you the highest return (Super) Simplified example: Bt and non-Bt corn Production Function: yield with Bt trait = 175 bu/ac, yield without Bt trait = 170 bu/ac Cost: Bt seed costs $110/ac and non-Bt seed costs $100/ac Price of corn = $7.00/bu and other costs of production = $600 noBt pYnoBt SeedCostnoBt K noBt 7.00(170) 100 600 490 Bt pYBt SeedCostBt K Bt 7.00(175) 110 600 515 Make more money with Bt under these price and yield assumptions, so choose Bt trait. With only two levels (Bt or non-Bt), very much like a Partial Budget Analysis (Google it, it’s very simple) More general Suppose have treatment t and net returns with this treatment system are: t PYt Ct K Suppose have a base treatment (no control or the “base” or “standard” system to compare to): 0 PY0 K Can then calculate the change in profit for using the new treatment t t t 0 PYt Ct K ( PY0 K ) PYt Ct K PY0 K t P(Yt Y0 ) Ct PY Ct If want to know what it takes for the gain in profit to be positive, then PY Ct 0 C Y t , which looks a lot like MP > r/P P To find the optimal system, choose the treatment t that has the largest profit t* max t t 0,..., T Tillage (Multiple levels or types of the discrete input) Fall Plow (FP): moldboard plow and disk in fall, then disk and field cultivate and plant in spring Fall Chisel (FC): chisel plow in fall, then disk and field cultivate and plant in spring Reduced Tillage (RT): disk and field cultivate and plant in spring No-Till (NT): no till plant in spring Yield: assume varies by tillage system: YFP, YFC, YRT, and YNT Cost: also varies by tillage system CFP, CFC, CRT, and CNT Net Returns: t = PYt – Ct – K, where t = {FP, FC, RT, NT} is the tillage system FP = PYFP – CFP – K, FC = PYFC – CFC – K, RT = PYRT – CRT – K, NT = PYNT – CNT – K Plug in the yield and cost numbers and see which one has the highest net returns Multiple Inputs: Mix of Discrete and Continuous Method: For each level or type of the discrete inputs, have to optimize the amount of the continuous input. General model: Yield depends on X and Z inputs where X is a continuous input and Z is a discrete input with levels Za, Zb, Zc, ..., or Y = f(X, Z) Profit: p(X, Z) = Pf(X, Z) – rX – c(Z) – K, where c(Z) = Ca if Z = Za, Cb if Z = Zb, … Solution Process 1) Set Z = Za and use calculus to find optimal level of X, given Z = Za. Define this as X*(Za). 2) Substitute this X*(Za) back into the profit function and calculate profit, given that X = X*(Za) and Z = Za. Define this as *(X*(Za), Za) = a. 3) Repeat steps 1 and 2 for each level of Z to find a, b, c, … 4) Optimal Z is the Z that that gives the highest Example to Illustrate Problem set #2: Negative exponential production function for corn yield and nitrogen, with the Ymax and 0 parameters depend on the hybrid maturity and/or the tillage system Base model: Y ( N ) Ymax 1 exp(0 1 N ) Multiple Inputs: Y ( N , t , m) Ymax (m) 1 exp(0 (t ) 1 N ) , where t denotes the discrete tillage system used and m denotes the discrete corn hybrid maturity planted 0FP if fall plow (t FP) FC 90 Ymax if plant 90 d corn (m 90) if fall plow (t FC ) t 0 0RT Ymax 95 Ymax if plant 95 d corn (m 95) 0 if fall plow (t RT ) 0NT if fall plow (t NT ) How we wrote this for estimation using dummy variables: y ymax90 D90 ymax95 D951 exp(0 FC DFC 0 FP FFP 0 NT DNT 0 RT DRT 1N ) Given the tillage system and hybrid maturity, we know Ymax and 0, and then the optimal N rate is found by setting MP = r/p and solving for N: PYmax 1 exp(0 1 N ) rN K FOC: 1PYmax exp( 0 1 N ) r / p . Solve for N: N r ln 1 P1Ymax 1 0 1 SOC: satisfied as long as 0 and 1 are negative Each combination of tillage and hybrid maturity determine Ymax and 0, then use the optimal 1 r 0 solution N ln to find the yield Y and profit associated with each hybrid 1 P1Ymax 1 maturity and tillage system. Note that we have two discrete inputs: tillage t and maturity m Assume price and cost parameters Parameters P ($/bu) r ($/lbs) C_90 ($/ac) C_95 ($/ac) C_FC ($/ac) C_FP ($/ac) C_NT ($/ac) C_RT ($/ac) K ($/ac) 7.50 0.65 35 40 100 130 35 60 600 Based on these parameters, for each hybrid maturity and tillage system, can calculate Ymax and 0, then use these to calculate N*, Y*, costs, and * Maturity 90 90 90 90 95 95 95 95 Tillage Ymax beta_0 beta_1 N* Y* FC 126 -0.573 -0.026 119 122 FP 126 -0.849 -0.026 108 122 NT 126 -0.427 -0.026 124 122 RT 126 -0.667 -0.026 115 122 FC 165 -0.573 -0.026 129 162 FP 165 -0.849 -0.026 119 162 NT 165 -0.427 -0.026 135 162 RT 165 -0.667 -0.026 126 162 N Cost 77.17 70.16 80.86 74.77 84.10 77.09 87.79 81.70 Seed Cost 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Till cost 100 130 35 60 100 130 35 60 K 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Pi 104.95 81.96 166.27 147.36 389.09 366.10 450.40 431.49 With these prices and costs, optimal hybrid maturity is 95 days, optimal tillage is no-till and optimal N rate is 135, generating a yield of 162 bu/ac and profit of $450.40/ac Max **** -