S.K. Patil & Associates 1403 Coventry Lane Munster, IN 46321 Tel/Fax: 219.922.1033 Cell: 574.210.5876 sakharam@skpatilassociates.com sakharam@sbcglobal.net www.skpatilassociates.com S. K. Patil and Associates Modified Starch Products, Derivatives & Markets – A Strategic Review - 2015 By: S K Patil & Associates, Inc. March 2015 Confidential Do Not Copy or Distribute Disclaimer: Although the information and data contained in this report have been produced and processed from sources (including the originator of this report) believed to be reliable, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, completeness, legality or usefulness of any information contained herein 1403 Coventry Lane, Munster, IN 46321 (219) 922-1033 Cell 574 210-5876 sakharam@skpatilassociates.com sakharam@sbcglobal.net www.skpatilassociates.com 1 2 MODIFIED STARCH PRODUCTS DERIVATIVES & MARKETS – A STRATEGIC REVIEW MARCH 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. REPORT DESCRIPTION ................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. MARKETS COVERED .................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. III. STARCH A BRIEF REVIEW OF STARCH CHEMISTRYERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. STARCH EXTRACTION PROCESS A BRIEF REVIEW ............. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. STARCH CHEMISTRY (BRIEF) ......................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. IV. STARCH & MODIFIED STARCH ............................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. WHY USE STARCH? AND WHY MODIFY STARCH? ............. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. SELECTED STARCH MODIFICATIONS ............................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. ADDITIONAL NEW PRODUCTS FROM STARCH PROCESSING INDUSTRYERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. D. CROSS-LINKING ........................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. E. ESTERIFICATION – HYDXYPROPYLATION ......................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. F. VISCOSITY MEASUREMENT TO DETERMINE EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL MODIFICATIONSERROR! BOOKMARK NOT V. REVIEW OF FUNCTIONS AND APPLICATIONS ... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. FUNCTIONS OF UNMODIFIED AND MODIFIED STARCHES IN FOODS A BRIEF REVIEWERROR! BOOKMARK NOT B. FUNCTIONS OF UNMODIFIED AND MODIFIED STARCHES IN INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS A BRIEF REVIEW ................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. STARCHES IN PAPER AND PAPER BOARD, USA A BRIEF REVIEWERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. VI. GLOBAL & US MARKETS OVERVIEW .................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. GLOBAL MARKET SITUATION AND SIZE ............................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. STARCH UTILIZATION BY FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL MARKET SECTORSERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. US MARKET SIZE ......................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. D. BRIEF SNAP SHOT OF US MARKET SITUATION STARCH DERIVED PRODUCTS FROM CWM INDUSTRY ......................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. E. MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS – US PLAYERS ...................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. VII. FUTURE WET MILL CAPACITY PERSPECTIVE, ANTICIPATED STARTUP DATE FOR NEW CAPACITY, PRODUCT MIX. .................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. CAPACITY UTILIZATION ISSUES - CARBOHYDRATE REFINING OPTIONSERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 3 B. FUTURE WET MILLING CAPACITY PERSPECTIVE BASED ON PRIMARY AS WELL AS SECONDARY SOURCES AND OUR INSIGHTS COMBINED WITH BI (BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE).ERROR! BOOKMAR C. NEW POTENTIAL CAPACITY ........................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. D. POTENTIAL CHANGES AND MARKET LEVERS .................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. E. OPPORTUNITIES AND MARKET OUTLOOK ......................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. VIII. MODIFIED FOOD STARCH & MARKET SEGMENTSERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. FOOD SEGMENT NEEDS & DESIRABLE PROPERTIES ......... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. IX. WAXY STARCH CHARACTERIATICS & MARKETS ............................................... 4 X. MODIFIED STARCHES BY APPLICATIONS AND FOOD & INDUSTRIAL MARKET SEGMENTS .................................................................................................... 5 A. MODIFIED STARCH VOLUMES IN KEY FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS – US & GLOBAL ...... 5 B. MODIFIED STARCH DATA BY SEGMENT: VOLUME, VALUE, MARGINS AND FUNCTIONS FOR SEGMENTS ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. NEW PRODUCTS .......................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. D. INDUSTRIAL STARCHES – GLOBAL BY MAJOR SEGMENTS .. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. XI. RESISTANT STARCH - INGREDIENT SITUATIONERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. INTRODUCTION ............................................................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. DEFINITION .................................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. C. RESISTANT STARCH – PROPERTIES ............................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. D. RESISTANT STARCH APPLICATIONS AND PROCESSING ISSUEERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. F. RS & SDS PATENTS .................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. XI. STARCH PRODUCTS OPPORTUNITIES .............. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. STARCH PRODUCTS AND DEVELOPMENTS...................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. BIOTECHNOLOGY (MODIFIED STARCHES, EFFECT ON YIELD AND PRODUCTION COSTS)ERROR! BOOKMARK C. POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT USING BIOTECHNOLOGYERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED D. HIGHER-VALUE STARCH PRODUCTS ............................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. XII. SELECTED STARCH RESEARCH/TECHNOLOGY PUBLICATIONS AND PATENTS ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A. STARCH & MODIFIED STARCH SELECTED RESEARCH PAPERSERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. B. MODIFIED STARCH SELECTED PATENTS, 2003 TO 2011 . ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. XIII. SUMMARY ............................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. XIV. REFERENCES ....................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 4 Abstract This expanded 2015 report has comprehensive information on various modified starches, market segments along with review of modified starches manufactured worldwide. This report has new chapters on Future Wet Mill Capacity and New Starch Capacity Perspective (chapter VII) and a brand new addition (chapter IX) Waxy Starch Characteristics and Perspective. There is also information on the modified starch manufacturers in the US, their market share along with the prices. Report provides details of modifications, applications and markets worldwide. We have provided critical data on the modified starches by applications and market segments. Modified starch and other derivatives are key drivers of profitability of major starch players engaged in modified starches. Description of the capabilities of each US manufactures along with their position in the market is very useful. Global list of modified starch manufacturers is also provided. Besides new chapters VII and IX; chapter VI is now enhanced to include modified starch distribution by modification. Chapter is an enhanced breakdown of present global perspective and market segment breakdown by food and industrial markets. Several additional data is also provided including market share of all US players. The position of specialty and commodity starches along with margin effects on the starch players in the US. Global markets food and industrial markets are much diversified and there is further fragmentation within each market sectors. This is also complicated by the fact of food and industrial preferences that are regional and the industrial practices, products preferences by consumer require that these products are tailored to fulfill the functional needs. As this recession ends and it will; the opportunities for starch processing industry going forward remain very bright in view of strong growth of developing economies and rising population with higher incomes and demands on many food and industrial products. 2013/14 has been good year for all industries including starch derivatives and modified starches. Record corn crop enhanced margins due to low corn costs and very little new capacity. Modified starches are utilized in hundreds or even thousands of food, industrial, biofuels, bioplastic applications. Unmodified starches have limited usage die to its inherent weakness of hydration, swelling and structural organization. To enhance viscosity, texture, stability among many desired functional properties desired for many food and industrial applications, starch and their derivatives are modified by chemical, physical and biotechnology means. Practically every category of food utilizes the functional properties of starch to impart some important aspect of the final product. Unmodified starches have limited usage due to its inherent weakness of hydration, swelling and structural organization. To enhance viscosity, texture, stability among many desired functional properties desired for many food and industrial applications, starch and their derivatives are modified by chemical, physical and biotechnology means. Report provides excellent detail analysis of food and industrial market segment s and distribution of how the utilization remains dynamic depending on consumer and processing industry segments. There is more information to clearly understand the total picture of modified starch derivatives markets and the industry domain. Value added opportunities of modified starches and their multiple derivatives along with the contribution of biotechnology remain very bright going forward. Examples of selected chapters: IX. WAXY STARCH CHARACTERIATICS & MARKETS This chapter is a presentation of waxy corn, waxy starches and waxy maltodextrins in the US. A. Waxy maize corn key points: Waxy corn is different from typical dent corn because it contains 98-100% amylopectin starch versus 75% in commodity corn. Elite yellow dent hybrids are converted through traditional 5 breeding methods to waxy corn hybrids. Most of the waxy corn acreage is yellow waxy with a small amount that is white waxy. Newer waxy hybrids are reported to be more competitive with dents in yield. The market has been is relatively stable and currently stands at approximately 500,000 acres (202,000 hectares). Waxy maize is grown under contract. 2014 waxy corn grower received premiums of $0.35 per bushel ($5.90 - $11.81 per MT.) The majority of the contracted acres are located near U.S. domestic processing facilities unless the grain is destined for the export market. A few major companies dominate the starch production for food and industrial uses. Most waxy corn production occurred in Indiana near Hammond, Lafayette, Indianapolis and Madison. Production also occurred in central Illinois, Kansas City to northwest Missouri, southwest Iowa and eastern Iowa, southern Minnesota, southern Michigan and a little in Nebraska, Ohio and Kentucky. $0.30 – Figure 35: Modified waxy by modification (mainly for food except cationic), USA 2014 Table 22: Examples of certain food modified searches in food segments, does not include all modified starches USA Food Modified Waxy Starch Volumes and Estimate Price – 2014 USA Food Modified Waxy Starch Volumes and Estimate Price – 2014 Application/Segments Products by Modification Volumes Global ** (mm lbs) (mm lbs) Prices Est. USA Growth (avg. $/cwt) USA * X. MODIFIED STARCHES BY APPLICATIONS AND FOOD & INDUSTRIAL MARKET SEGMENTS A. Modified starch volumes in key food and industrial segments – US & global Tables 21 & 22 in the following pages include information (volume, margins, growth, etc.) on Modified Starch information. The information (volume, margins, growth, etc.) on Modified Starch is estimated from the sources: CRA, USDA-ERS and Census Bureau Shipment report, and market shares of major consumer products companies such as GM, Sara Lee, Kraft, etc. During the period 2010 thru 2012 we estimated the market of 35% for US, 35 % for EU and 30% for Asia and ROW (rest of the world). During 2013/2014 we have now revised these values to be 30 % for US, 30 % for EU and ~ 40 % for 6 ROW (rest of world) because of strong growth in the BRIC countries and the remaining rejoins that are growing ~ 4 to 5 % annually as the income rise and the demands for process foods rise. We also utilized individual regions trade and public reports using our search capabilities. The slowdown in 2012 is expected to reduce the growth in China to ~ 4- 5 % compared to 5 – 6 % during previous 5 yrs. Table 1: Examples of certain food modified searches, does not include all modified starches, 2014 estimates USA Food Modified Starch Volumes and Estimate Price – 2014 Products by Modification Application/Segments Volumes Global ** (mm lbs) (mm lbs) Prices Est. USA Growth (avg. $/cwt) USA * Table 27: Modified food starch volumes aggregate of Table 22 to 29 selected segments, includes corn, wheat, potato and tapioca Table 21 A: Modified food starch volumes aggregate of Table 22 to 29 selected segments, includes corn, wheat, potato and tapioca USA Food Modified Starch Volumes and Estimate Price – 2014 Products by Modification Application/Segments Volumes Global ** (mm lbs) (mm lbs) Prices Est. USA (avg. $/cwt) USA * Table 2: Modified Starch Bakery Segment Global 2013/14 (US 30%, EU 30%, Asia, ROW 40%) Waxy -30%; Wheat - 30%; Potato 20%; Tapioca - 20%. 2013/14 estimates Starch Function in Blue Market Segment Market size Size in GPM* Gro wth** % Mm $ % Mm lbs Unmet needs Prod. Barrier Players Geography Frag ment ation To Suppliers Food Entry Vol. Includes pre gels in certain segments For &$ Starch Manufacturer s 7 Bakery -Total 675 385 50 3-4 (Starch Function: Moist. Control High fiber, low Cal, shelf stability, wholegrain microwave Very high Quality, Texture, control moist migration Shelf stability to high National, Cargill, Staley/ Global players with many small Benefit Amylum, local players And cost Roquette driven Avebe, Low Visc. Clarity CPI Taste, texture Other Gelatinization T) Table 3: USA - Modified Corn Starches in Bakery Segment US 75% waxy, 2013/14 estimate Market Segment Market size Size in GPM Grow th * Unmet needs % Mm $ % Prod. Barrier Players Geography Fragme ntation To Suppliers Food Mm lbs Manufactur ers 1 Entry Vol. Includes pre gel For &$ Starch Bakery -Total 225 150 50 Functions: Same as Table 4 S K PATIL & ASSOCIATES, INC. MUNSTER, IN 46321 219-922-1033 sakharam@skpatilassociates.com 2-3 High fiber, low Cal., shelf stability, microwavable Very high Improve. Texture, control moist migration Low to high National, Cargill, Staley/Amy lum, Penford Roquette Avebe, CPI other March 2015 Global players with many small local players 8 sakharam@sbcglobsl.net www.skpatilassociates.com