Title
Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to the calibration period used for the
MORDOR rainfall-runoff model - 14:00
Speaker
P. Brigode
Session
Hw15S5 - Testing simulation and forecasting models in non-stationary conditions
Author(s)
Brigode, P. 1; Bernardara, P. 2; Paquet, E. 2; Gailhard, J. 2; Garavaglia, F. 2; Merz, R. 3; Ribstein, P. 4 1 EDF & Université Pierre et Marie Curie, France; 2 EDF, France; 3 UFZ Helmholtz Centre for
Environmental Research, Germany; 4 Université Pierre et Marie Curie, France
Abstract number
Hw15S5.03
Abstract
Several stochastic simulation methods have appeared in the scientific literature over the past two
decades. These approaches are based on the statistical analysis of flood series simulated by rainfallrunoff models which are forced by simulated rainfall and they are typically composed of a
probabilistic rainfall model coupled with a rainfall-runoff model. Usually, both of these models are
calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series, which may be subject to significant variability
and/or unstationnarity over time. This study aims at investigating the sensitivity of extreme flood
estimations to the calibration period used for the rainfall-runoff model.
After applying the workshop calibration framework, a supplementary analysis is performed. The
proposed methodology consists in a block-bootstrap experiment generating different sets of
observed series sub-samples. These sub-samples are then used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model
used within the stochastic simulation method. Finally, we compare the extreme flood estimation
obtained using the different rainfall-runoff model parameter sets.
The SCHADEX (Simulation Climato-Hydrologique pour l'Appréciation des Débits EXtrêmes) extreme
flood estimation method, developed and applied by Electricité De France since 2006 for the dam
spillway design, is used in this study. The rainfall-runoff model classically applied in the SCHADEX
method is MORDOR, which is continuous, daily, lumped and has 22 free parameters. The SCHADEX
extreme flood estimation method is applied over the Kamp at Zwettl catchment, located in the
northeastern part of Austria. This 622 km2 catchment is an interesting case study since it has
experienced dramatical floods in August 2002. The role of these extreme floods in the rainfall-runoff
model calibration process and in the resulting extreme flood estimations is investigated.