APPENDIX 3 2014-15 ESTIMATED OUTCOME INCLUDING MARCH QUARTERLY REPORT Key Issues Information on the Estimated Outcome was not presented in the 2014-15 Budget Papers due to the timing of the 2014-15 Budget on 28 August 2014 shortly after the publication of preliminary outcomes information for 2013-14 (on 12 August 2014). With the return of the Budget to the May preceding the Budget year, Estimated Outcome information is again presented in this Budget Paper. The Estimated Outcome information presented in this appendix reflects financial estimates available to Treasury at the time of the finalisation of the Budget Papers and includes agency assessments of funding requirements, current estimates of State taxation and information available from the Australian Government and Government Businesses. This appendix also meets the information requirements for a March Quarterly Report as specified in Section 26C of the Financial Management and Audit Act 1990. It presents financial results for the nine months ending 31 March 2015 for the General Government Sector and the Consolidated Fund. The estimated General Government Net Operating Balance for 2014-15 is a $186.2 million deficit, a $99.4 million improvement from the 2014-15 Budget estimate of a $285.6 million deficit. The actual General Government Net Operating Balance for the nine months to 31 March 2015 is a $139.1 million deficit. 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 179 INTRODUCTION This appendix presents the 2014-15 Estimated Outcome which is based on agency assessments of indicative additional funding requirements or potential savings and revised whole-of-government revenue estimates. The latest available information prior to the finalisation of the 2015-16 Budget Papers is used to form the Estimated Outcome. Estimates are determined using information from a number of sources including the latest State taxation estimates and advice from the Australian Government, Government Business Enterprises, State-owned Companies and agencies. Detailed information on the final Outcome for 2014-15 will be published in: the Preliminary Outcomes Report, required to be published by 15 August 2015 in the event that the preliminary outcomes result differs materially from the Estimated Outcome published in this appendix; the Treasurer's Annual Financial Report, which will be tabled in Parliament by 31 October 2015; and agency Annual Reports, which will be tabled in Parliament by 31 October 2015. This appendix also meets the information requirements for a March Quarterly Report as specified in Section 26C of the Financial Management and Audit Act. It presents financial results for the nine months ending 31 March 2015 for the General Government Sector and the Consolidated Fund. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with applicable Australian Accounting Standards including AASB 1049 Whole of Government and General Government Sector Financial Reporting. Preparation of the Report requires the application of estimation methods in accordance with the principles of AASB 134 Interim Financial Reporting. GENERAL GOVERNMENT INCOME STATEMENT Table A3.1 provides details of the Estimated Outcome for 2014-15, compared to the 2014-15 Budget estimates. 180 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report Table A3.1: General Government Income Statement 2014-15 Revenue from Transactions Grants Taxation Sales of Goods and Services Fines and Regulatory Fees Interest Income Dividend, Tax and Rate Equivalent Income Other Revenue Less Expenses from Transactions Employee Expenses Superannuation Depreciation Supplies and Consumables Nominal Superannuation Interest Expense Borrowing Costs Grant Expenses Other Expenses Equals NET OPERATING BALANCE Plus Other Economic Flows Included in Operating Result Gain/(Loss) on Disposal of Non-Financial Assets Movement in Investments in GBEs and SOCs Movements in Superannuation Liability Other Gains/(Losses) Equals Operating Result 2014-15) ) Budget) $m) 2014-15) Estimated) Outcome) $m) 2014-15) March YTD) Actual) $m) 3 027.5) 983.2) 3 094.3) 998.4) 2 357.7) 743.7) 354.1) 103.3) 15.9) 357.0) 92.9) 18.2) 248.7) 76.8) 9.5) 342.9) 136.8) 4 963.7) 369.1) 150.6) 5 080.6) 268.9) 123.4) 3 828.6) 2 137.0) 268.3) 287.0) 2 193.2) 289.3) 287.3) 1 671.2) 219.7) 215.5) 1 083.9) 1 053.5) 726.7) 283.1) 11.0) 1 148.3) 30.5) 5 249.3) 268.2) 10.9) 1 126.8) 37.6) 5 266.8) 200.7) 7.9) 914.4) 11.5) 3 967.7) (285.6) (186.2) (139.1) 11.3) 16.0) (0.2) (347.8) (140.1) ....) ....) (176.8) (513.2) 1 414.7) (208.7) 1 081.8) ....) (111.3) (111.6) (798.8) 895.6) (250.7) 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 181 Table A3.1: General Government Income Statement 2014-15 (continued) 2014-15) 2014-15) 2014-15) Estimated) March YTD) Budget) Outcome) Actual) $m) $m) $m) 340.7) 274.8) 206.1) 3.8) 344.5) (12.9) 261.9) 35.8) 241.9) (454.3) 1 157.6) (8.8) (285.6) (186.2) (139.1) Less Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets Purchases of NonFinancial Assets Less Sale of NonFinancial Assets Less Depreciation 400.8) 290.5) 138.0) 32.6) 287.0) 81.2) 40.5) 287.3) (37.3) 35.8) 215.5) (113.3) Equals FISCAL BALANCE (366.8) (148.9) (25.8) Plus Other Economic Flows - Other Movements in Equity Revaluations of NonFinancial Assets Other Non-Owner Movements in Equity Equals Comprehensive Result KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES NET OPERATING BALANCE 182 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report REVENUE VARIATIONS Total revenue for 2014-15 is estimated to be $5 080.6 million, $116.9 million above the Budget estimate of $4 963.7 million. The major revenue variations are described in Table A3.2. Table A3.2: Major Revenue Variations Revenue Item Variance from Budget Grants: $66.8 million higher General Purpose Payments Specific Purpose Payments National Partnership Payments $37 million higher $26.7 million higher $4.3 million higher Taxation $15.2 million higher Fines and Regulatory Fees $10.4 million lower Reasons The increase in General Purpose Payments (GPP) funding is a result of GST revenue being revised upwards by $37 million to reflect the revisions made by the Australian Government. This primarily reflects: a residual adjustment of $14.7 million in GST revenue paid to Tasmania in 2014-15, as a result of higher than anticipated GST receipts in 2013-14; and an adjustment as a result of higher than anticipated GST receipts in 2014-15. The increase in Specific Purpose Payments reflects increases in: Students First education reforms funding of $22.6 million; and National Health Reform funding of $4.1 million due to revised activity levels. The increase in National Partnership Payments primarily reflects increases in grants relating to Healthcare ($19.6 million); Community Services ($13.4 million); and Environment ($8.5 million). These have been partially offset by a reduction in grants for Infrastructure in 2014-15 reflecting a change in rail funding in accordance with matching requirements and revised cash flows for road funding. The increase in Taxation primarily reflects an increase in estimated Conveyance Duties of $20.7 million, which is partially offset by a decrease in Payroll Tax of $6.6 million. The reduction in Fines and Regulatory Fees primarily reflects a reclassification of revenue relating to the Asbestos Compensation Fund from Fines and Regulatory Fees to Other Revenue ($8.2 million). 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 183 Table A3.2: Revenue Item Dividend, Tax and Rate Equivalent Income Other Revenue 184 Major Revenue Variations (continued) Variance from Budget $26.2 million higher $13.8 million higher Reasons The increase in Dividend, Tax and Rate Equivalent Income is primarily due to higher than budgeted Income Tax Equivalents from Tasmanian Networks Pty Ltd of $15.5 million reflecting revised financial forecasts given greater certainty in the Company's operations since its establishment and the outcomes of the capital structure review of the State-owned electricity businesses; and from Aurora Energy Pty Ltd of $7.1 million reflecting revised customer retention relative to the 2014-15 Budget estimate. The increase in Other Revenue primarily reflects: a reclassification of revenue relating to the Asbestos Compensation Fund from Fines and Regulatory Fees to Other Revenue ($8.2 million); and additional revenue of $2.4 million in the Tasmanian Health Organisations reflecting additional funding from various medical professional colleges for the Training More Specialists Program. 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report EXPENSE VARIATIONS Total expenses for 2014-15 are estimated to be $5 266.8 million, $17.5 million above the Budget estimate of $5 249.3 million. The major expense variations are described in Table A3.3. Table A3.3: Expense Item Employee Expenses Superannuation Major Expense Variations Variance from Budget $56.2 million increase $21 million increase Reasons The increase in Employee Expenses primarily reflects: Department of Health and Human Services reallocation of $8.1 million in expenses from other expense items to Employee Expenses to better align with expected expenditure patterns; Tasmanian Health Organisations - $15.6 million reflecting the Employee Expenses portion of an additional $30 million above Budget expenditure; $7.5 million from the reallocation of the Election Commitment for Rebuilding Health Services from the Department of Health and Human Services; $5 million for employee separation costs; and $4.9 million reflecting the Employee Expenses portion of additional Australian Government funding for the Tasmanian Health Assistance Package; Department of State Growth - additional expenditure of $7.5 million for employee separation costs; and the impact of delays in the timing of employee separations compared to budgeted employee savings. The increase in Superannuation expense reflects the most recent actuarial estimates of the Superannuation liability. 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 185 Table A3.3: Major Expense Variations (continued) Agency Supplies and Consumables Variance from Budget $30.4 million decrease Reasons The decrease in Supplies and Consumables primarily reflects a reduction in Finance-General due to lower than expected costs for the Tasmanian Risk Management Fund ($14 million); cash flow adjustments for the parliament square project; and the amortisation of the Treasurer’s Reserve ($10 million). Nominal Superannuation Interest Expense $14.9 million decrease The decrease in Nominal Superannuation Interest Expense reflects the latest actuarial projection of the Government’s Superannuation liability. Grant Expenses $21.5 million decrease The decrease in Grant Expenses primarily reflects: Finance-General - the deferral of expected payments under the Tasmanian Forest Agreement from 2014-15 to 2015-16 ($8.5 million); Department of State Growth - savings of $11 million have been achieved as a consequence of the International Shipping election commitment no longer being required given the extension of the Tasmanian Freight Equalisation Scheme for international exports being shipped to mainland ports. Future year savings have been redirected to fund rail infrastructure; and the deferral of expected payments for the Academy of Creative Industries and Performing Arts ($7.4 million) and Regional Revival Fund - Craggy Ridge project ($3.4 million) from 2014-15 to 2015-16. These decreases have been partly offset by additional Australian Government grants to Non-Government Schools under the Students First education reforms of $14.4 million. Other Expenses 186 $7.1 million increase The increase in Other Expenses primarily reflects the expenditure of the proceeds of sale from the Hayes Prison Farm of $2.1 million and an increase in Other Expenses relating to the Asbestos Compensation Fund of $2 million to better reflect expenditure patterns in the Department of Justice. 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report OTHER ECONOMIC FLOWS - INCLUDED IN OPERATING RESULT Other economic flows - Included in the Operating Result is estimated to be an inflow of $1 081.8 million in 2014-15, which is $1 595 million higher than the 2014-15 Budget of a $513.2 million outflow. The major changes are detailed in Table A3.4. Table A3.4: Other Economic Flows - Included in Operating Result Variations Item Movement in Investment in GBEs and SOCs Variance from Budget $207.7 million higher Reasons The increase in the Movement in Investment in GBEs and SOCs primarily relates to additional impairment, undertaken in 2013-14, of electricity generation assets. This lowered the opening balance for the equity investment by $134.7 million and thus reduced the revaluation decrement for 2014-15. There is also an anticipated increase of $73 million in net assets for the PNFC Sector held at 30 June 2015. Movements in Superannuation Liability $1 414.7 million higher The increase in the Superannuation Liability reflects the latest actuarial valuation. The increase primarily reflects the difference between the discount rate applied by the State Actuary, in accordance with Australian Accounting Standard AASB 119 Employee Benefits, for financial reporting purposes and the estimated long-term bond rate which is used for Budget purposes. 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 187 NET ACQUISITION OF NON-FINANCIAL ASSETS Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets for 2014-15 is estimated to be negative $37.3 million, $118.5 million below the Budget estimate of $81.2 million. The major variations in the Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets are described in Table A3.5. Table A3.5: Major Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets Variations Item Variance from Budget Reasons Purchases of Non-Financial $110.3 million decrease The decrease in Purchases of Non-Financial Assets Assets primarily reflects revised cash flows for: Department of Education of $13.9 million including Brooks High School ($7.9 million), New Town High School ($2 million) and Year 7-12 Implementation ($1.4 million); Department of Health and Human services of $62.5 million including the Royal Hobart Hospital Redevelopment ($31.4 million), Statewide Cancer Services ($8.3 million), Housing projects ($6 million) and Glenorchy and Kingston Community Health Services facilities ($4.4 million); and Department of State Growth mainly reflecting timing changes in the Roads Program. Actual Expenditure to 31 March 2015 on Purchases of Non-Financial Assets is significantly below pro rata estimated expenditure. This is primarily due to the timing of expenditure by the Department of Health and Human Services relating to the Royal Hobart Hospital Redevelopment and the Department of State Growth in relation to the Roads Program. This expenditure is now reflected in the 2015-16 Budget and Forward Estimates. Sale of Non-Financial Assets $7.9 million increase The increase in Sale of Non-Financial Assets primarily reflects the sale of the parliament square site as part of the parliament square project ($8.3 million). 188 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE SHEET Table A3.6: General Government Balance Sheet 2015) 2015) 2015) ) Estimated) March YTD Budget) Outcome) Actual $m) $m) $m) 1 041.1) 1 136.4) 1 554.1 77.7) 62.2) 52.9 4 331.7) 4 404.7) 4 539.8 14.7) 17.7) 16.1 Receivables 304.3) 334.8) 363.8 Other Financial Assets 755.2) 698.1) 796.6 6 524.8) 6 653.9) 7 323.2 Land and Buildings 5 829.6) 5 800.0 5 765.1 Infrastructure 4 634.4) 4 449.3 4 357.9 Plant and Equipment 231.2) 246.3 259.7 Heritage and Cultural Assets Assets Financial Assets Cash and Deposits Investments Equity Investment in PNFC and PFC Sectors Other Equity Investments Non-Financial Assets 485.0) 478.5 466.1 Investment Property 11.9) 18.7 11.6) Intangibles 35.1) 44.9 37.3 Assets Held for Sale 10.9) 7.9 9.2) Other Non-Financial Assets 36.9) 30.8 32.0 11 274.9) 11 076.4 10 938.8 17 799.7) 17 730.2) 18 262.0 Total Assets Liabilities Borrowings Superannuation Employee Entitlements Payables Other Liabilities Total Liabilities NET ASSETS 930.6) 834.5) 1 149.6 5 448.0) 5 338.4) 6 735.8 561.7) 578.9) 579.9 91.0) 111.5) 106.9 408.7) 379.3) 400.0 7 439.9) 7 242.6) 8 972.1 10 359.7) 10 487.6) 9 289.8 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 189 Table A3.6: General Government Balance Sheet (continued) 2015) 2015) 2015) ) Estimated) March YTD Budget) Outcome) Actual $m) $m) $m) Accumulated Funds 5 434.6) 5 730.7) 4 601.6 Asset Revaluation Reserve 4 925.2) 4 756.9) 4 688.2 10 359.7) 10 487.6) 9 289.8 10 359.7) 10 487.6) 9 289.8 (915.1) (588.8) (1 648.9) 5 246.8) 4 993.5) 6 188.7 (188.3) (364.1) (457.4) Equity Total equity KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES NET WORTH1 NET FINANCIAL WORTH2 NET FINANCIAL LIABILITIES3 NET DEBT4 Notes: 1. Net Worth represents Total Assets (both Financial and Non-Financial) less Total Liabilities. 2. Net Financial Worth represents Total Financial Assets less Total Liabilities. 3. Net Financial Liabilities represents Total Liabilities less Financial Assets, excluding Equity Investment in the PNFC and PFC Sectors. 4. Net Debt represents Borrowings less the sum of Cash and Deposits and Investments. 190 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report GENERAL GOVERNMENT CASH FLOW STATEMENT Table A3.7: General Government Cash Flow Statement 2014-15) 2014-15) 2014-15) ) Estimated) March YTD Budget) Outcome) Actual $m) $m) $m) Cash Flows from Operating Activities Cash Received from Operating Activities Grants Received 3 027.5 3 092.1 2 356.2 Taxation 983.4 998.6 740.1 Sales of Goods and Services 353.8 362.9 242.5 Fines and Regulatory Fees 103.3 92.9 76.0 Interest Received 16.1 18.4 8.8 Dividend, Tax and Rate Equivalents 576.7 576.9 451.9 Other Receipts 305.9 319.9 250.2 5 366.7 5 461.7 4 125.7 (2 128.6) (2 187.8) (1 666.4) (397.3) (427.3) (315.9) (1 097.3) (1 070.7) (716.6) (10.8) (11.0) (1.4) (1 148.4) (1 127.2) (898.8) (199.8) (205.4) (140.2) (4 982.1) (5 029.3) (3 739.3) 384.6 432.4) 386.4 (400.3) (290.1) (138.0) 36.8 44.7 35.8 (363.5) (245.4) (102.2) Equity Injections (42.8) (30.1) (31.4) Net Advances Paid (20.6) (13.8) (7.2) (63.4) (43.9) (38.6) Cash Payments for Operating Activities Employee Entitlements Superannuation Supplies and Consumables Borrowing Costs Grants and Subsidies Paid Other Payments Net Cash Flows from Operating Activities Cash Flows from Investing Activities Net Cash Flows from Non-Financial Assets Purchases of Non-Financial Assets Sales of Non-Financial Assets Net Cash Flows from Financial Assets (Policy Purposes) Table A3.7: General Government Cash Flow Statement (continued) 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 191 2014-15) 2014-15) 2014-15) ) Estimated) March YTD Budget) Outcome) Actual $m) $m) $m) 0.7 .... 0.2) 0.7 .... 0.2) Net Cash Flows from Financial Assets (Liquidity Purposes) Net Purchase of Investments Net Cash Flows from Investing Activities (426.2) (289.3) (140.7) ( 229.5) (315.2) (0.1) (229.5) (315.2) (0.1) (271.2) (172.1) 245.6) Cash at Beginning of the Year 1 312.4 1 308.5 1 308.5 Cash at End of the Year 1 041.1 1 136.4 1 554.1 384.6 432.4) 386.4 (363.5) (245.4) (102.2) 21.0) 187.0) 284.2) Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities Net Borrowing Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash Held KEY FISCAL AGGREGATES Net Cash Flows from Operating Activities Plus Net Cash from Investments in Non-Financial Assets Equals CASH SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) 192 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report CONSOLIDATED FUND Table A3.8: Consolidated Fund Outcomes 2014-15 2014-15 2014-15 Estimated March YTD Budget Outcome Actual $m $m $m General purpose payments 1 911.4 1 948.4 1 449.7 Specific purpose payments 423.4 445.9 397.4 72.1 72.6 54.5) 0.1 0.1 ....) 2 407.0 2 467.0 1 901.6 Taxation 862.4 877.6) 665.1 Receipts from government businesses 601.8 601.5) 465.1 Departmental fees and recoveries 90.1 89.0) 70.1 Recoveries of State debt charges 0.1 0.1) ....) Sale and rent of government property 5.0 5.0) ....) 31.3 31.3) 19.3 135.0 163.1) 96.9 1 725.7 1 767.6) 1 316.5 3.3 3.5) 2.4) 3.3 3.5) 2.4) 4 136.0 4 238.1) 3 220.4 Appropriation Act 3 423.5 3 447.5) 2 607.1 Reserved by Law 297.9 327.9) 239.1 3 721.3 3 775.5) 2 846.2 159.2 149.6) 82.9 159.2 149.6) 82.9 3 880.6 3 925.0) 2 929.1 255.4) 313.1) 291.4) Recurrent receipts Australian Government sources National Partnership Payments Other Grants and Subsidies State sources Resource rents and royalties Other recurrent receipts Capital receipts State sources Other capital receipts Total Receipts Less Expenditure Recurrent services Works and services Capital Investment Program Total Expenditure CONSOLIDATED FUND SURPLUS 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 193 Table A3.9: Consolidated Fund Expenditure by Agency 2014-15 2014-15 2014-15 Estimated March YTD Budget Outcome Actual $m $m $m 1 093.7 1 109.1) 896.2 16.5 13.1) 1.8 1 110.1 1 122.2) 898.0 494.5 529.2) 359.9 494.5 529.2) 359.9 1 108.7 1 123.9) 804.5 7.9 7.4) 0.6 1 116.6 1 131.3) 805.2 7.6 7.8) 5.6 7.6 7.8) 5.6 2.4 2.4) 1.8 2.4 2.4) 1.8 132.0 134.8) 104.6 6.0 6.0) 3.7 138.0 140.8) 108.3 6.4 6.6) 5.0 6.4 6.6) 5.0 5.8 6.1) 4.7 5.8 6.1) 4.7 17.6 18.4) 14.5 17.6 18.4) 14.5 7.1 7.4) 5.7 7.1 7.4) 5.7 Education Recurrent services Works and services Finance-General Recurrent services Health and Human Services Recurrent services Works and services House of Assembly Recurrent services Integrity Commission Recurrent services Justice Recurrent services Works and services Legislative Council Recurrent services Legislature-General Recurrent services Ministerial and Parliamentary Support Recurrent services Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions Recurrent services 194 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report Table A3.9: Consolidated Fund Expenditure by Agency (continued) 2014-15 2014-15 2014-15 Estimated March YTD Budget Outcome Actual $m $m $m 3.4 3.6) 2.7 3.4 3.6) 2.7 2.1 2.0) 1.3 2.1 2.0) 1.3 183.8 184.3) 144.6 0.5 0.5) ....) 184.3 184.8) 144.6 79.3 80.8) 64.8 1.1 1.1) .... 80.4 81.9) 64.8 128.6 129.6) 100.5 8.5 4.8) 1.3 137.2 134.4) 101.8 Recurrent services 384.0 364.9) 284.8 Works and services 117.5 115.5) 74.8 501.5) 480.4) 359.7) 2.2 2.2) 1.7 2.2 2.2) 1.7 24.6 24.6) 15.3 24.6 24.6) 15.3 37.5 37.7) 27.7 1.3) 1.3) 0.6) 38.8) 39.0) 28.3 3 880.6 3 925.0) 2 929.1 Office of the Governor Recurrent services Office of the Ombudsman Recurrent services Police and Emergency Management Recurrent services Works and services Premier and Cabinet Recurrent services Works and services Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment Recurrent services Works and services State Growth Tasmanian Audit Office Recurrent services Tourism Tasmania Recurrent services Treasury and Finance Recurrent services Works and Services TOTAL 2014-15 Estimated Outcome Including March Quarterly Report 195