1 Supporting information Appendix S1. Materials and methods POP analysis. As detailed in Dietz et al., 2013a; Dietz et al., 2013b, brominated and chlorinated POPs were extracted from homogenized polar bear adipose tissues by accelerated solvent extraction, followed by gel permeation chromatography to remove lipids and other bioorganics, and then subject to solid-phase clean up. Final extracts were analyzed by GC-MS in electron impact ionization mode or by GC with election capture detector for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other organochlorines. Brominated POPs were analyzed by GC-MS in electron capture negative ionization mode. Concentrations of POPs were calculated on a lipid weight basis. Quality control. For fatty acids, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (Charleston, SC, USA) standard reference material (SRM) 1945 (pilot whale homogenate) and inter-day duplicate polar bear samples were alternately extracted and analyzed with each batch of 24 samples. Our 1945 values were first renormalized to the fraction of sum of the 27 FAs reported in a previous inter-laboratory QC exercise (Kucklick et al., 2010). These renormalized values were on average within 14% of the median inter-laboratory comparison values. Duplicate polar bear samples showed a precision of, on average, 4.7% (relative SD) for all dietary FAs. Although no δ13C-FA values have been assigned to 1945, we also ran this SRM by GC-C-IRMS as a precision check and to generate values to which researchers can compare in future δ13C-FA research. For 14:0, 16:0, 16:1n-7, 18:1, 20:1, 22:1, 20:5n-3, and 22:6n-3, the δ13C-FA ratios (± SD of 8 replicates) were -32.04 ± 0.41‰, -30.78 ± 0.49‰, -31.91 ± 0.78‰, -29.67 ± 0.57‰, 29.09 ± 0.60‰, -28.13 ± 0.61‰, -36.99 ±1.63‰, and -33.98 ± 1.09‰, respectively. Duplicate 2 polar bear sample runs (at 0.5 and 2.0 mg/ml total FAME) showed average precision (±SD) for 14:0, 16:0, 22:1, 20:5n-3, and 22:6n-3 of ±0.39‰ , ±0.32‰, ±0.28‰, ±1.25‰, and ±0.73‰, respectively. The average mass of these individual FAMEs in a 1µl injection volume ranged from 0.01ng to 0.15ng. Complete quality control details for contaminant analysis of 1945, duplicates and blanks with this dataset were previously reported (Dietz et al., 2013a; Dietz et al., 2013b). Sample oxidation. Polar bear % 22:6n-3 FA values were grouped and examined by subjective oxidation class. As 22:6n-3 is the longest chain and most highly unsaturated FA of those monitored, it is the FA most subject to oxidative degradation. We thus examined the range of 22:6n-3 proportions by subjective oxidation class to determine whether any polar bear FA profiles showed gross signs of oxidation (i.e., obviously low 22:6n-3) that could bias diet estimates. Additionally, in an initial run, the permutation MANOVA also included subjective oxidation class as a factor to test whether this factor significantly influenced diet estimates. Simulation exercises. Simulation studies were run to determine the robustness of the model. First, prey-on-prey modeling assessed how distinct the individual prey species FA signatures were from one another. This simulation randomly divided an individual prey species into a ‘prey’ and a ‘predator’ dataset. The ‘prey’ dataset in combination with other prey species was used to model via QFASA this ‘predator’ dataset. The random division was done 1000 times, and QFASA was re-run on each new ‘prey’ and ‘predator’ combination. Prey-on-prey modeling was done for each prey species to identify whether all prey were well distinguished dietary items based on their FA signatures. A second simulation assessed how well QFASA modeling estimated diets relative to a simulated diet. The simulation randomly divided the prey into a ‘simulation’ and a ‘prey’ dataset. The ‘simulation’ dataset was used to construct a ‘pseudo-bear’ 3 signature using arbitrarily assigned prey proportions with additional prey randomly added for noise (10%). The ‘prey’ dataset was then used to model via QFASA the ‘pseudo-bear’ diet. The random division was done 1000 times, and QFASA was re-run on each new ‘prey’ dataset. ‘Pseudo-bear’ modeling results indicated how accurately and precisely the QFASA model estimated a given EG polar bear diet. Results Potential confounding influence of oxidation on diet estimates. Proportions of 22:6n-3 in EG polar bear tissues were grouped according to subjective oxidation class (Fig. S1). In the freshest group (oxidation class 1), 22:6n-3 ranged from 3.53% to 10.41%. With the exception of one, two and six samples in oxidation classes 3, 4, and 5, respectively, 22:6n-3 ranges were within the range of oxidation class 1 samples, i.e., above 3%. This finding suggests that the EG polar bear FA signatures were not generally substantially altered by oxidative degradation. We nonetheless excluded the nine samples with 22:6n-3 values below 3% from diet analyses reducing the sample size to 301. In this set of 301 polar bears, oxidation class was also not a significant factor in the initial permutation MANOVA (p = 0.61), further confirming that our diet estimates were not influenced by potential sample oxidation. Discussion Hunting records- Limited records for Ittoqqortoormiit exist between 1983-1987 and complete total annual catch data are available only for harp, ringed, bearded and hooded seals from 1993-2008 (A. Rosing-Asvid, unpublished data). Between 1993-2008, ringed and hooded seal catches declined. Harp and bearded seal catches did not significantly change. Thus, although declines in ringed seals and lack of change in harp and bearded seals paralleled our estimated EG 4 diet trends, hooded seal catch numbers did not. It is possible that catch data does not closely reflect seal abundance and may instead reflect, for instance, changes in hunting effort. Fatty acid carbon isotopes- evidence of dietary influence- First, 13C-fractionation should result in depleted products relative to shorter chain and/or more saturated precursors due to the kinetic isotope effect. However, we found that δ13C ratios were enriched with increasing chain length in FA groups with the same degree of saturation, suggesting de novo synthesis is not the major factor. The same enrichment pattern was also reported in birds (Budge et al., 2011), but was reversed in lower trophic feeding species (Murphy & Abrajano, 1994; Bec et al., 2011; Gladyshev et al., 2012). Second, in a controlled feeding trial with eider ducks, the essential FAs 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 did not differ in δ13C between diet and consumer adipose (Budge et al., 2011). Although caution should be exercised in extrapolating these observations to polar bears, we suggest that the deviation in δ13C ratios of 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 observed between EG polar bears and ringed seals is likely due to bears consuming substantial amounts of other prey species, in agreement with QFASA-generated diet estimates. Third, changing δ13C-FA profiles (18:1 and 20:1) in the spring-summer time series, but not in fall-winter, concurs with QFASA estimates indicating change in spring-summer, but not fall-winter, diets. It is conceivable that declines in δ13C-FA could also be driven by declining δ13C of atmospheric CO2 resulting from fossil fuel emissions (the Suess effect; Francey et al., 1999). However, since only certain δ13C-FA became more depleted over time, the changes likely instead represent ecological changes. 5 Table S1 Average (± SE) FA profiles (mass % of total FAME) for adipose tissues of East Greenland polar bears collected from 1984-2011 (n = 301a). FA (‘dietary’)b mean ± SE FA (‘dietary’)b mean ± SE Saturated FA (SFA) Polyunsaturated FA (PUFA) 12:0 0.05 ± 0.0 16:2n-6 0.03 ± 0.00 0 13:0 0.02 ± 0.0 16:2n-4 0.10 ± 0.00 0 14:0 3.69 ± 0.0 16:3n-6 0.34 ± 0.00 3 iso15:0 0.24 ± 0.0 16:3n-4 0.10 ± 0.00 1 anti15:0 0.07 ± 0.0 16:4n-3 0.12 ± 0.00 0 15:0 0.24 ± 0.0 16:4n-1 0.07 ± 0.00 0 iso16:0 0.10 ± 0.0 18:2Δ5,11 0.07 ± 0.00 0 16:0 7.59 ± 0.0 18:2n-7 0.07 ± 0.00 8 7Me16:0 0.22 ± 0.0 18:2n-6 1.59 ± 0.01 0 iso17:0 0.11 ± 0.0 18:2n-4 0.06 ± 0.00 0 17:0 0.14 ± 0.0 18:3n-6 0.11 ± 0.00 0 18:0 1.94 ± 0.0 18:3n-4 0.06 ± 0.00 5 20:0 0.08 ± 0.0 18:3n-3 0.54 ± 0.01 18:3n-1 0.03 ± 0.00 Monounsaturated FA (MUFA) 0 14:1n-9 0.09 ± 0.0 18:4n-3 0.78 ± 0.02 0 14:1n-7 0.04 ± 0.0 18:4n-1 0.09 ± 0.00 0 14:1n-5 0.82 ± 0.0 20:2n-9 0.07 ± 0.00 1 15:1n-8 0.01 ± 0.0 20:2n-6 0.27 ± 0.00 0 15:1n-6 0.05 ± 0.0 20:3n-6 0.10 ± 0.00 0 16:1n-11 0.30 ± 0.0 20:4n-6 0.21 ± 0.00 0 16:1n-9 0.51 ± 0.0 20:3n-3 0.07 ± 0.00 1 11.3 ± 0.1 16:1n-7 20:4n-3 0.41 ± 0.01 7 16:1n-5 0.054 ± 0.0 20:5n-3 2.33 ± 0.07 0 17:1 0.21 ± 0.0 21:5n-3 0.33 ± 0.00 0 18:1n-11 4.45 ± 0.0 22:4n-6 0.07 ± 0.00 6 24.0 ± 0.1 18:1n-9 22:5n-6 0.08 ± 0.00 0 5 18:1n-7 4.51 ± 0.0 22:4n-3 0.07 ± 0.00 4 18:1n-5 0.36 ± 0.0 22:5n-3 4.59 ± 0.07 0 20:1n-11 3.51 ± 0.0 22:6n-3 6.29 ± 0.07 6 11.4 ± 0.1 20:1n-9 8 14.5 ± 0.12 ∑SFA 20:1n-7 0.607 ± 0.0 1 66.11 ± 0.21 ∑MUFA 22:1n-11 3.11 ± 0.1 0 19.07 ± 0.19 ∑PUFA 22:1n-9 0.68 ± 0.0 2 15.56 ± 0.18 ∑n-3 (omega-3) 22:1n-7 0.07 ± 0.0 0 ∑n-6 (omega-6) 2.863 ± 0.01 a Initially 310 polar bear samples were included. However, 9 were removed to ensure no confounding influence of oxidation on the FA dataset (Appendix S1, Fig. S1). b The bolded values indicate ‘dietary’ FAs, those that were used in the QFASA modeling. 6 Table S2 Sample sizes by year and sex/age class for adipose tissues of East Greenland polar bears collected from 1984-2011. Yeara All bears Adult females Adult males Subadults 1984 9 4 0 5 1986 7 1 0 6 1987 4 0 0 4 1988 5 0 0 5 1989 7 0 2 5 1990 14 4 4 6 1991 5 2 0 3 1992 18 2 7 9 1993 20 4 3 13 1994 12 1 4 7 1995 14 2 4 8 1996 8 0 2 6 1998 1 0 0 1 1999 27 7 7 13 2000 35 8 9 18 2001 13 4 1 8 2002 1 0 0 1 b 2003 9 2 1 5 2004 b 10 1 4 4 2005 4 1 1 2 2006 17 3 9 5 b 2007 11 3 4 3 b 2008 12 5 5 1 2009 20 3 9 8 2010 8 2 4 2 2011 b 10 0 2 7 a Year was considered as February-December plus January of the following year. b The sample size for “all bears” is one more than the sum of the individual sex/age classes as one bear from each of these years was not identified by sex/age class. 7 Mass % DHA by Freshness Class 22:6n-3 (mass % of total FAME) 12.00 12 10.00 10 8.008 6.006 4.004 2.002 0.000 0 11 22 33 44 55 6 Subjective oxidation class Fig. S1 Percentage of 22:6n-3 in individual East Greenland polar bear adipose FA signatures, assigned according to visual extent of oxidation (subjective oxidation class) on a 1 to 5 scale: 1 = white/fresh (n = 135); 2 = mainly white/slight yellow tinge (n = 49); 3 = white-yellow (n = 52); 4 = mainly yellow/slight white tinge (n = 43); 5 = yellow/sometimes a bit dry (n = 23). The dashed line indicates a cut-off point; samples with 22:6n-3 values below this line did not fall within the range of 22:6n-3 values found for the freshest samples (subjective oxidation class 1), and were thus considered to have potentially biased FA signatures due to FA oxidation. These 9 samples were not included in subsequent diet analysis reducing the total sample size to 301. Abbreviations used: FAME; fatty acid methyl ester. 8 Fatty acid composition (mass % of total FA) 14.00 14 12.00 12 10.00 10 8.008 6.006 4.004 2.002 0.000 22:6n-3 22:6n-3 22:4n-6 22:4n-6 21:5n-3 21:5n-3 20:5n-3 20:5n-3 20:4n-3 20:4n-3 18:4n-3 18:4n-3 18:2n-6 18:2n-6 16:4n-1 16:4n-1 16:3n-4 16:3n-4 22:1n-9 22:1n-9 22:1n-11 22:1n-11 20:1n-7 20:1n-7 20:1n-9 20:1n-9 20:1n-11 20:1n-11 9 Fig. S2 Selected dietary fatty acids (average mass % ± SE) in the blubber of polar bear prey from Greenland and neighboring regions grouped by species and collection location/year: bearded seal (black bars; left to right: Davis Strait (1994-2003), South Greenland (2011)), harp seal (striped bars; left to right: Davis Strait (1994-2002), Greenland Sea (1999), Denmark Strait (2001)), hooded seal (white bars; left to right: Davis Strait (1993-2001), Greenland Sea (1999), Jan Mayen (2001), Denmark Strait (2001)), narwhal (crosshatched bars; left to right: Baffin Bay/Foxe Basin/Lancaster Sound (1999-2001), East Greenland (2010)), ringed seal (grey bars; left to right: Davis Strait (1994-2000), East Greenland (2002-2006)) and walrus (checkered bars; left to right: Foxe Basin (1993-1996), East Greenland (2011)). Greenland Sea, Denmark Strait and Jan Mayen, Davis Strait, Baffin Bay, Foxe Basin and Lancaster Sound data are from previous studies (Thiemann et al., 2008a; Thiemann et al., 2008b; Falk-Petersen et al., 2009). Only the proportions of the dietary fatty acids which were published in these earlier studies are presented. 10 All bears-all years 1.000 100 (a) 0.800 80 0.600 60 47.5 30.6 0.400 40 16.7 0.200 20 4.5 0 0.000 0.7 0.0 All bears-all years 100 1.000000 (b) 80 0.800000 60 0.600000 40 Percent prey contribution to bear FA signature 0.400000 38.4 37.1 14.7 20 0.200000 9.2 0.6 0 100 0.0 All bears-all years 0.000000 1.000000 (c) 80 0.800000 60 0.600000 0.400000 40 39.0 35.2 14.9 20 0.200000 10.2 0.6 0 1.000000 100 0.000000 0.0 All bears-all years (d) 80 0.800000 0.600000 60 40.1 40 0.400000 33.2 14.9 11.2 20 0.200000 0.6 0 100 0.0 All bears-all years 0.000000 1.000000 (e) 80 0.800000 54.0 60 0.600000 6.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 Narwhal Walrus 20 0.200000 Bearded seal 35.0 Hooded seal 40 0.400000 0 Harp seal Ringed seal 0.000000 11 Fig. S3 Influence on East Greenland polar bears diet estimates, generated by QFASA from adipose tissues collected from 1983 to 2011, of spatiotemporal variation in prey library using (a) all available prey from Greenland and neighbouring regions, (b) only Greenland prey, as available, (c) only Greenland prey, as available, and only ringed seal from 2002, (d) only Greenland prey, as available, and only ringed seal from 2004, (e) only Greenland prey, as available, and only ringed seal from 2006. Italicized numbers above each bar indicate the mean dietary contribution. Error bars represent ± SE of individual polar bear diet estimates. 12 1.00 100 1.00 (a) Ringed seal Percent prey contribution to bear FA signature 0.80 80 0.80 0.60 60 0.60 0.40 40 0.40 0.20 20 0.20 0 0.00 1.00 1001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0.80 80 2005 0.00 1980 2010 1.002015 (c) Hooded seal 0.60 0.40 40 0.40 0.20 20 0.20 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 0.00 1980 2015 1980 2005 2010 2015 (d) Bearded seal 0.80 0.60 60 0.000 1980 (b) Harp seal 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 Fig. S4 Percent contribution to East Greenland polar bear yearly mean (●) and individual (○) diets from fall-winters of 1986-2009 of the following prey species: (a) ringed seal (overall mean 47.6%), (b) harp seal (30.4%), (c) hooded seal (16.4%) and (d) bearded seal (5.2%). 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