RESILIENT FARM SYSTEMS & CLIMATE VARIABILITY – What implications are relevant for my farm?
This is a Risk Management Planner for farmers, farm managers and consultants.
Using it encourages a structured approach to risk assessment and management of that risk. It encourages a strategic look to the future.
The purpose of this planner is to help you understand:


what you can do to reduce risk, and
what needs to be done to maintain farm business viability and profitability regardless of the outcome of climate variability.
It’s all about taking sensible steps that help manage the risks that arise from climate variability.
Climate variability is inevitable and a challenge in farming in the future. Indications are that we will experience greater variability in climatic conditions under Global Warming scenarios. While we can’ influence the
climatic conditions, there are things that can be done that will help to minimise the likely impact on the land, stock, and business performance. That should mean less stress and pressure on farmers through such
periods of volatility.
At the same time, by taking action to minimise these impacts, farmers will be better positioned to demonstrate sustainable resource management in action.
Farming in the future will have to incorporate factors that will impact on the farm system including climate change, increased regulatory framework, genetics and customer perceptions.
Tips for using this tool
Start by considering each Climate Change factor (1)  then move across the page to the next column to review the likely effects (2)  then, looking specifically at your farm, think how the things that can make a
difference (3) might modify the likely effect at your place.
As well as these natural features of your farm, there will be aspects of your farming system (4) that will also modify the likely effect at your place.
Note down what’s relevant for you and your farm by checking items in column 5.
Then prioritise (6), either by timing or importance, any action you need or want to take
CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS
Factors (1)
Likely effects (2)
More frequent intense
precipitation events (rain
and snow)
More high intensity rainfall events:
 ↑ risk of erosion
 ↑ reduction in pasture
production as a result of
increased slip-scar history
 ↑ risk of pasture damage
through pugging & soil
compaction
 ↑ cost to maintain access &
infrastructure
Greater unpredictability around
climatic events
↑ incidence of severe “wind-chill”
events (combination of intense
1
Things that can make a difference
(3)
LUC classes1 & the proportion they
are of the farm:
 soil type/parent material
 slope
 aspect
Placement and type of stabilising
cover
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
Sheep to cattle ratio, especially on
poorly drained soils
Selection of land management areas
most suited to grazing by cattle when
soil is wet
Active reseeding of slip scars to quickly
re-establish early colonising species
Degree of alignment between existing
farm fencing & subdivision, each LUC
class, and the opportunity to use each
area of land to its sustainable
potential
More flexible stocking/ management
systems e.g. different stock species,
age & liveweight classes, breeding v’s
finishing stock etc
Process of slip scar re-vegetation
Relocation of at-risk structures and
LUC class: Land Use Capability class – a system for classifying land based into eight classes according to its long-term capability to sustain one or more productive uses. http://www.landcareresearch.co.nz/research/soil/luc/
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
Page 1
rainfall, wind and low temperature)
Flooding –
 waterlogged soils
 pasture damage and reestablishment
 silt deposition and/or topsoil
loss
Infrastructure damage (snow &
flooding)
Community effects
 isolation (snow & flooding)
 access
 helping neighbours
Soil water infiltration capacity - extent
of landform modification2 and soil
compaction - (un-cultivated land has ↑
depressions & hollows that trap runoff; smooth cultivated land may
accelerate run-off)
facilities e.g. river & bridge crossings,
yards and farm buildings
Establishment of a hard feeding area or
feed pad to reduce soil damage and
environmental impact
Location within the catchment e.g. in
the steeper headwaters with a higher
risk of slip and erosion damage, or in
the lower reaches with higher risk of
flooding and stream bank erosion and
encroachment
Placement & design of farm
infrastructure
Maintenance of farm infrastructure
Extent and nature of river bank &
flood protection
Quality of artificial drainage of poorly
drained areas
2
Loss of feed or restricted stock
access to feed (snow & flooding)
Quantity and placement of
supplementary feed
Loss of reticulated services:
 electricity
 telephone
 transport
Availability of alternative sources and
alternative options e.g. effluent
disposal
Landform modification: modification of the land surface through cultivation, levelling and other processes which modify the natural soil profile and which can result in faster run-off and reduced retention of rainfall and infiltration of water into the soil profile
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
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Factors (1)
Likely effects (2)
More frequent
occurrence of dry spells
and longer duration of
dry spells
Less reliable spring summer &
autumn pasture growth
 ↑ variability
 ↓ seasonal and total pasture
growth

“Natural” stock water (river run and
springs) limits the use that can be
made of available forage through
summer/autumn and may limit
management options e.g.
paddocks that can be grazed by
cattle; co-grazing lambs and cattle
Create more flexible stock policies
↑ grazing pressure on pastures:
 ↓ clover content
 ↓ dense sward & more
weeds
 ↑ pasture pests
 ↓ pasture persistence
Use of nitrogen to boost pasture
growth, when conditions are
favourable, to lift feed reserves
↑ frequency of dry/drought seasons
↑ prevalence of “back-to-back”
rainfall events
Development of hydrophobicity
(water repellence) in soils (poor
infiltration after prolonged dry)
Pastures experiencing dry
conditions and high summer
temperatures
Things that can make a difference
(3)
Maintain nitrogen and soil fertility
levels to ensure high water use
efficiency of plants
Water harvesting & irrigation on high value LUC classes of land on the farm
Extent of stock water storage and
reticulation
Deeper rooting forages:
 chicory
 lucerne
 plantain
 sub clover
Supplementary feed
Extent and design of tree fodder
resources
Programmed lime application to
reduce the impact of hydrophobicity
Best practice parasite management
plan:
 using more effective
treatments (products)
 preventive treatment of young
stock to manage parasite
challenge
 targeted selective treatment
(TST)
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action))
More flexible stocking/ management
systems e.g. different stock species,
age & liveweight classes, breeding v’s
finishing stock etc
Opportunity to avoid over-grazing with
sheep through the driest period on atrisk land management areas, aspect,
and pasture type
Pasture renovation to introduce
species/cultivars with superior
performance & quality under dry
conditions, or alternatively when
irrigated
Use of plants more suited to both
persistence and production in the
environment
Selection of livestock genetics most
suited to perform in your local
environment
Ability to operate summerfallow/deferred grazing in high growth
periods to enable recovery of at-risk
areas of the farm
Provision of summer supplementary
feed and feeding systems
Water harvesting and storage
Irrigation
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
Page 3
Factors (1)
Likely effects (2)
Increase in average
temperature
Fewer cold days and more hot
days
(+10C by 2040 & 20C by 2090)
Pasture quality declines earlier in
the spring/early summer
Things that can make a difference
(3)
Extent & nature of shade & shelter
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
Planting of trees for shade
Resilient pasture systems
This is an incremental
effect – but planning and
action needs to occur
now if the benefits are to
accrue in 10-15 years
time.
↑ grazing pressure on pastures:
 ↓ clover content
 ↓ dense sward & more
weeds
 ↑ pasture pests
 ↓ pasture persistence
Optimal soil fertility
Grazing management skillsto maintain
pasture quality
Timing of sowing of new pastures to
minimise risk (late-March for Black
Beetle)
↑ increased C4 grasses (kikuyu,
paspalum)
↑ evapotranspiration3
Opportunity to prioritise allocation of
low-risk forage to susceptible stock
↑ prevalence of mycotoxins in
pasture e.g. zearalenone
↑ & earlier build-up of facial
eczema through summer
Factors (1)
History & selection pressure for FE
resistance
Selection of livestock genetics most
suited to perform in the local
environment – breeding a flock that
incorporates facial eczema resistance
for example
Change of lambing and mating dates
Use of pasture plants more suited to
both persistence and production in the
environment – including possible
adoption of better performing
genetically modified material
Use of alternative forage species
Different management required for C4
grasses, lucerne and other dryland
legumes
Water harvesting and storage
↑ prevalence of pasture pests e.g.
black beetle, crickets
Irrigation
↑ risk of fly strike
Managing the risk of melanoma and
heat stress in people working outside
↑ incidence of Haemonchus in
areas currently marginal for
infection
Likely effects (2)
Things that can make a difference
(3)
Increase in CO2
concentration of
atmosphere
Positive benefit on pasture growth
Soil Olsen P, sulphur & pH levels
Results in lower pasture quality
Extent & timing of N use
(up from 380 ppm. today to 475
ppm. by 2030)
Require more nitrogen and
phosphate to achieve the same
quality of pasture production
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
Higher annual application rate of
phosphate & sulphur fertiliser to
compensate for progressive nutrient
limitation
Change in grazing management
approach – shorter grazing interval,
increase stocking rate
Enhanced opportunity to conserve feed
surplus (difficult in hill country 
increasing stocking rate)
3
Evapotranspiration: the sum of evaporation from the soil and surface of vegetation and transpiration from vegetation to the atmosphere. In effect, the total amount of moisture lost from the soil each day that needs to be replaced by either rainfall or irrigation if soil moisture level is to be maintained.
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
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OTHER FACTORS IMPACTING ON THE FARM SYSTEM
Factors (1)
Likely effects (2)
Livestock Gnetics
High performance stock
(high scanning &
lambing %; high daily
liveweight gain targets;
high BW & PW dairy
herd)
Genotype (traits of the chosen lines of
stock)
Appear to have more issues
 High relative feed demand
 Body condition is critical to
performance
Longevity
 ↑ replacement rate
 Teeth wear
Higher wastage
 Facial eczema
 Viral pneumonia
Winter shearing
 Reliability of feed provision
 ↑ in winter feed demand
Factors (1)
Changing Central and
Local Government
Regulation
Things that can make a difference
(3)
Likely effects (2)
ETS liability
Increasing levels of afforestation
Increasing cost of doing business
through regulations, rules, levies
and taxes
Alternative forage systems
Changing Central and
Local Government
4
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
Selection of livestock genetics most
suited to perform in the local
environment – seeking genotype X
environment performance3
Shelter
Level of flock genetic resistance to FE
Using flock sires from flocks with a high
RamGuard4 Flock Status rating
Prioritising high performance or high
risk stock to the best quality LUC
classes, aspect & altitude areas
across the farm
Things that can make a difference
(3)
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
Managing financial risk through off-set
and sale up to “safe-to-trade” level of
carbon sequestered in trees
Forest establishment or tree planting to
provide carbon sequestration, joining
the ETS, claiming carbon credits and
sale of carbon credits up to “safe-totrade” level
Reducing sources of wastage within
the business
Identifying sources of “wastage”
through the on-farm production system
and opportunities to reduce “wastage”
and improve productivity
Greater competition for water
resources
Investment in water storage and water
harvesting
Tension between urban and rural
understanding and engagement
Regionally, changing land use
patterns and competition for
resources e.g. land, water, access
Increasing constraint on land use
and availability of water, and land
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Grazing management
Feeding level & post-grazing residual
Achieving improved productivity (level
of outputs/level of inputs)
Tension between perceptions and
realities
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
Improving the level of understanding
around land use activities
Securing necessary access/takes for
essential business (stock and domestic
RamGuard: A Sheep Improvement Ltd. brand for rating flocks that have been breeding for facial eczema resistance - http://www.sheepimprovement.co.nz/Home.aspx
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
Page 5
Regulation
and water management practices
water) through formal consent
Caps, limits and rules on inputs
and/or outputs. Permitted activities
become consented activities
Changing dynamic between
pastoral land use and forestry
Greater restriction/limitation on
water availability and use
Local investment in and
development of water storage and
water harvesting
Increasing level of distrust,
apprehension and reducing level of
transparency in relationships
Factors (1)
Changing customer
perceptions
Animal welfare & farm
Likely effects (2)
Things that can make a difference
(3)
Farming needs to demonstrate that Feedback and verification through a
it is being practiced in a sustainable quality assurance process
manner and that the food and
outputs are produced in a manner
that is enduring:
 Soil nutrients are being
maintained
 Food is safe
 Transparency and
traceability is evident
 Food is healthy
 Production systems
involving livestock enable
natural behaviours and
characteristics to occur
What might it mean for my farm
system (4)
What’s relevant
for me (5)
Action Plan (6)
(add date of intended action)
Nutrient budget to enhance nutrient use
efficiency
Achieving quality assurance
certification
Evidencing that farm inputs are based
on demonstrated need
Review of livestock policies and land
use practice to ensure “best fit” for your
environment
Farmers need to feel valued
members of society, be recognised
as contributing to societies’ needs,
and be valued for the effort and
contribution they make meeting
people’s needs and caring for their
environment
Improving the level of societal
understanding around land use, safe
and wholesome food supply,
environmental management, and
community interdependencies that are
needed in a robust and functional
society
Being involved in initiatives that
improve understanding of the
contribution and issues farming brings
to a balanced and informed society or
community
Provision of animal requirements:
Feedback and verification through a
Achieving quality assurance
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
Page 6
management
shade, feed, water and protection
from predators
quality assurance process
Enabling livestock to demonstrate
natural behaviour
Understanding the practical
implications, and contributing to
reviews, of animal welfare codes of
practice
Able to evidence that animal
treatments and interventions are
based on demonstrable need
Changing land use
Urban sprawl 
horticulture  dairy 
deer/sheep/beef
certification
Evidencing that farm inputs are based
on demonstrated need
Review of livestock policies and land
use practice to ensure “best fit” for your
environment
Impact of increasing regulation of
dairy farming on other farming
systems (flow-on of increased
regulation)
Finishing land less available for
sheep and beef farming
Increased opportunities for contract
grazing, on farm diversification
A resource developed through the Climate Change Technology Transfer Programme
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