NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
2nd PROJECT WORKSHOP
25-26 April 2013
Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
Minutes
Chaired by:
Minutes by:
Status of Minutes:
Vladan Kovacevic, Eng.
Radmila Salic, M.Sc.
Final
Present
1
Name Surname
E-mail
Zeynep Gulerce, Prof. Dr.
2
Radmila Salic, M.Sc.
3
Neki Kuka, Prof. Dr.
4
Llambro Duni, Prof. Dr.
#
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
zyilmaz@metu.edu.tr
r_salic@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk
nekikuka@live.com
llduni@hotmail.com
Snjezana Markusic, Prof. Dr.
markusic@irb.hr
Ines Ivancic, Prof. Dr.
iivancic@rudjer.irb.hr
Zoran Milutinovic, Prof. Dr.
zoran@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk
Jadranka Mihaljevic, M.Sc.
mihaljevic@seismo.co.me
Marin Cavelis, Eng.
cavelis@seismo.co.me
Vladan Kovacevic, Eng.
vladan.kovacevic@seismo.gov.rs
Svetlana Kovacevic, Eng.
svetlana.kovacevic@seismo.gov.rs
Slavica Radovanovic, M.Sc.
slavica.radovanovic@seismo.gov.rs
Branko Dragicevic, M.Sc.
branko.dragicevic@seismo.gov.rs
Project Role
Institution
Country
NPD
Middle East Technical
University, Ankara
Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and
Engineering Seismology,
Skopje
Institute of Geosciences,
Energy, Water and
Environment, Tirana
Institute of Geosciences,
Energy, Water and
Environment, Tirana
Department of
Geophysics, University of
Zagreb, Zagreb
Department of
Geophysics, University of
Zagreb, Zagreb
Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and
Engineering Seismology,
Skopje
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory, Podgorica
Montenegro
Seismological
Observatory, Podgorica
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Seismological Survey of
Serbia, Belgrade
Turkey
PPD
Co-Director
Participant
Co-Director
Participant
Participant
Co-Director
Participant
Co-Director
Participant
Participant
Participant
14
???
Participant
15
???
Participant
Macedonia
Albania
Albania
Croatia
Croatia
Macedonia
Montenegro
Montenegro
Serbia
Serbia
Serbia
Serbia
Serbia
Serbia
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
Agenda points:
1.
WP-1: Improvement and Harmonization of BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue [Current Progress, Time Table and Milestones]
1.1 Improvement and Harmonization of Albania BSHAP
Earthquake Catalogue
1.2 Improvement and Harmonization of Croatia BSHAP
Earthquake Catalogue
1.3 Improvement and Harmonization of Macedonia BSHAP
Earthquake Catalogue
1.4 Improvement and Harmonization of Montenegro BSHAP
Earthquake Catalogue
1.5 Improvement and Harmonization of Serbia BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue
2.
WP-2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion
Prediction Models [Current Progress, Time Table and Milestones]
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Albania
Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Croatia
Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Macedonia
Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Montenegro
2.5 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Serbia
3.
Project Visibility
3.1 Project Web-site
3.2 Special Session SE-50EEE
4.
Equipment Purchase
5.
BiH Partner Participation in the Project
6.
Other
MINUTES
1.
WP-1: Improvement and Harmonization of BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
[Current Progress, Time Table and Milestones]
Conclusions
Decisions
1.1 Improvement and Harmonization of Albania BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
– Summary given by Prof. Dr. Neki Kuka
o Data are investigated for the earthquakes occurred within Albania,
examining for missing or duplicated events, as well as improvement of
their location and magnitude characterization.
Two catalogues of earthquakes are prepared:
1) Catalogue of Albanian earthquakes with MS≥4.5, for the time
period 58BC-2012.
2) Catalogue of the Albanian earthquakes with ML≥3.0, for the time
period 1964-31/12/2011.
o
A final comparison and verification with the earthquakes catalogues
made public in 2012, is planned for the next six-month:
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
1) SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) 1000-1899, for the
historical earthquakes.
2) ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009),
created on the request and with sponsorship of GEM Foundation.
o Proposed Improvements:
1) The events used to derive the empirical relations for ML to MW
conversion, for every country must be verified, especially the local
magnitude. For Albania and Serbia, the data used are verified.
2) Updating the regression relations using new data (CMT+RCMT, and
the relevant local magnitudes) for the period 2010-2013.
3) Defining an alternative procedure (M. Herak) to convert local
magnitudes for small events (M<4.0), because MW determinations
used to derive the relevant empirical relations were available only
for moderate size and strong earthquakes (MW≥4.0). Extrapolation
of empiric relations beyond the magnitude range of events used
for their deriving should be avoided.
4) There are a lot of eqs in the early instrumental period (and before
beginning of GCMT catalogue in 1976), where no direct
measurements of seismic moments are available, especially for
strong eqs.
The MW proxy values can be obtained using regression relations
between MW and MS, or between MW and mb from the ISC-GEM
catalogue.
In order to provide the most reliable magnitude value for every earthquake in
the catalogue, in case of several magnitude estimates available for a single
earthquake, Prof. Kuka proposed priority order for MW values.
1.2 Improvement and Harmonization of Croatia BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
– Summary given by Prof. Dr. Ines Ivancic
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Brief introduction about Croatian Earthquake Catalogue (CEC), its
completeness, magnitude determination, earthquake database (and
queries), the CEC BSHAP format.
Magnitude revision yielded new calibrating functions for local
magnitudes (ML and MWA). Magnitudes were recalculated with new
calibrated function for local magnitudes in the period 2005 – 2011.
The correspondence between the three magnitudes is close to 1:1
relationship, enabling easy conversion from ML to MW.
A procedure for routine computation of moment magnitude using
spectra of local and regional earthquakes has been established.
Croatian Earthquake Database is a significant effort towards data
organization and usability.
The completeness of the Croatian earthquake catalog has been
investigated.
Duplicate events were removed.
Reference list was verified and updated with respect to BSHAP source
codes.
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
1.3 Improvement and Harmonization of Macedonia BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue – Summary given by Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic
o
o
o
o
o
Brief introduction about Macedonian Earthquake Catalogue and its
completeness
BSHAP Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
For testing purposes overall BSHAP (final version) catalogue was
examined in order to be defined and tested earthquake hazard
parameters. This approach allows to utilize the historic part of
catalogue, or equivalently, the largest, historic events.
(2) Assumptions (tests) were used:
- Historical events 510BC to 1150AD ignored, catalogue starts from
AD 1150
- Part 1: extreme (the largest events, within time span BC510 –
1150AD; Part 2: complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until
2010AD)
Results were produced in terms of:
- Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years)
- Distribution of Mean Activity rate (Lambda) for Mw=4.0
- Distribution of G-R b-value
- Distribution of Mmax
Test (3) on-going: Alternative division of the catalogue (longer historic
catalogue -510 - 1400 and -510 - 1830)
Planned activities:
Test with:
- Different mesh sizes (used 1 degree)
- Different node radiuses (used 250 km)
- Influence of pre and aftershocks on the seismic hazard parameters;
- Comparison with results obtained from the declustered earthquake
catalogue.
1.4 Improvement and Harmonization of Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue – Summary given by Jadranka Mihaljevic, M.Sc.
o
o
Brief introduction about Montenegro Earthquake Catalogue, its
completeness, magnitude determination
Sensitivity Analysis
1.5 Improvement and Harmonization of Serbia BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
– Summary given by Svetlana Kovacevic, Eng.
o
o
o
Brief introduction about Serbian Earthquake Catalogue, its
completeness, magnitude determination
Preparation of the catalogue
All available data are processed in program “Potres” using most reliable
data. Local and regional velocity models are used and tested to fit the
best solution and minimum correction.
Earthquake Catalogue M>=3.0 is prepared.
- >880 earthquakes Io>=5 in macroseismic catalog are processed for
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
BSHAP II, ~600 events in total are added to Catalog
o It was proposed ~4.560 events with Io=3-4 in macroseismic catalog to
be checked, many of them having usefull informations which enables
assessment of magnitude and focal depth.
Actions
Responsible
Deadline
BSHAP-1 catalogue should be updated by reflecting any change
after 2010 (the only update is required by Croatia in this
Croatia
15 May 13
meeting)
Finalized BSHAP-1 catalogue should be compared to the ISCAlbania
01 July 13
GEM catalogue for large events for any discrepancies
Updates to the BSHAP-1 catalogue for 3.0>M>3.5 earthquakes
and any earthquakes occurred between 2010-2012 should be
Croatia
15 Aug 13
put together using 15 km buffer zones around national borders
Neighbors should check the buffer zones and send updates to
All
01 Sep 13
Croatia
After the catalogue is finalized, declustering and completeness
Serbia
01 Nov 13
check should be performed
Method of updating the catalog in the future should be
Macedonia
01 Sep 13
proposed
2. WP-2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion Prediction Models
[Current Progress, Time Table and Milestones]
Conclusions
Decisions
Summary given by Radmila Salic, M.Sc.
Overall dynamic plan and milestones was presented for the activities related to
the WP-2. Completed, on-going and delayed phases were discussed.
o
Presented was overall inventory data base
2.1 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Albania – Summary given
by Prof. Dr. Llambro Duni.
o
o
o
Brief introduction about Albania strong motion network.
Strong motion data collected
Activities during the first 6 months period
- The inventory of the Albanian Strong Motion Network (ASMN) is
completed.
- Continuous real-time data transmission via satellite communication
(Intelsat) to the monitoring center in Tirana is provided in this
period for three CMG-5T strong motion sensors collocated in
existing seismic stations, Peshkopia (PHP), Korça (KBN) and
Tepelena (TPN).
- During this period a project aiming implementation of the GPRS
technology for ten Guralp CMG-5TD standalone accelerograph
systems has been also undertaken. The intention is to establish
their remote control and continuous real-time data transmission.
The project is under way. Several tests have been done and the
results are very promising.
- Efforts are undertaken to start the determination of the ground
type VS30 parameter for our BB and SM stations using geophysical
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
methods.
o Future actions
- Put in operation the GPRS technology for the remote control and
continuous real-time data transmission of the CMG-5TD systems.
- Using the BSHAP2 funds for Albania, to be bought two additional
Nanometrics Trident digitizers, in order to install two of the five
remained CMG-5T sensors in two other VSAT stations, sharing
existing seismographic satellite technology (Nanometrics – Canada)
used in these seismic stations. This solution will further improve
the real time strong-motion data collection and dissemination,
making them available also for the other partners in the BSHAP2
project, and beyond.
2.2 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Croatia – Summary given
by Prof. Dr. Snezana Markusic.
o
o
o
Overview of strong motion data collection in Croatia
Croatian Strong Motion Data Base was presented
- Contains 101 records with magnitudes ranging 1.9 to 6
- Locations of earthquakes recorded by accelerographs perched on
Croatian territory – mostly in the Central and Southern Dalmatia
and in Bosnia and Herzegovina
- The accelerometric databank for Croatia was improved by adding
all known information about stations (former and present)
Future Plans
- To procure two Guralp strong-motion instruments - their most
likely locations are the western part of Zagreb, and Bakar, small
town close to Rijeka
- Currently are carried out talks with the authorities in Zagreb, in
order to establish an earthquake early warning system (it is known
that Zagreb faces a significant hazard and risk)
- To create new Croatian Seismological map - due to obsolescence of
existing map (Kuk, 1987) and needs to adapt the European
regulations → it was one of our plans, but has recently been
achieved
As addition were presented the efforts of the Croatian partner in developing
the Seismic Hazard Map for Croatia which complies with EuroCOD 8
requirements. Also were presented some investigations related to the
microseismic noise measurements towards investigation of the amplification of
the local soil.
2.3 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Macedonia – Summary
given by Radmila Salic, M.Sc.
o
o
o
Compilation of available strong motion data (IZIIS archive)
Macedonia strong Motion Network
- Ohrid 3D Strong Motion Array
Strong Earthquake Ground Motion Data (for the territory of Former
Yugoslavia), 1975-1983
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
o
Following Steps:
- Inventory of Strong Motion Accelerogram Records
- Preparing of input files for processing
- Training on agreed software for processing
2.4 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Montenegro – Summary
given by Marin Cavelis, Eng.
o
o
o
o
Brief introduction about strong motion network for Montenegro
Montenegro Strong Motion recording history
Montenegro Strong Motion data base was presented
Transformation in to WGS coordinates of IZIIS accelerometers that
have been installed in Montenegro in period 1976-1985
2.5 Compilation of Available Strong Motion Data for Serbia – Summary given
by Vladan Kovacevic, Eng.
o
o
o
o
o
Brief introduction about Serbia monitoring networks and
instrumentation
Data Exchange Protocol
Brief introduction about Serbia strong motion network, disposition and
instruments
Serbian strong motion data base
Planned activities
- Increasing number of strong motion instruments
- Increasing number of seismological BB stations
- Linking all strong motion instruments by Internet with national
seismological centres
Actions
Draft flat file including metadata should be compiled
Compiled flat file should be compared with available public
datasets for missing information + some statistics should be
provided
Possibilities of collaboration for digitization and processing
should be explored
Candidate GMPEs should be selected (first pool-anything
available globally and regionally)
Site characterization data should be added
Raw data format should be decided
3.
Responsible
Deadline
Macedonia
15 May 13
Macedonia
01 July 13
Turkey
15 Aug 13
Turkey
15 Sep 13
All
15 Aug 13
Macedonia
01 Sep 13
Project Visibility
Conclusions
Decisions
Summary given by Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce
3.1 Project Web-site
Was presented the new launched project web site, its concept and
organisation.
http://www.wbalkanseismicmaps.org/
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
3.2 Special Session SE-50EEE
Further to the project promotion was discussed the special session on the
project which will be held under the International Conference on
Earthquake Engineering (29 to 31 May 2013) in Skopje, Macedonia.
http://www.se-50eee.org/
Title: Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
Conveners: (To be decided soon)
Number of oral presentations: 6 (additional poster presentations might be
expected)
Oral presentations (tentative):
- Overview of the project activities and future work (to be presented
by Dr. Zeynep Gülerce, Turkey)
- BSHAP Earthquake catalogue and improvements (to be presented
by Slavica Radovanovic, Serbia)
- Croatian Fault-plane solutions (fps) database and re-calibration of
magnitude scales for the Croatian seismographic network (to be
presented by Dr. Marian Herak, Croatia)
- Strong Ground Motion Network and Database (to be presented by
Radmila Salic, Macedonia)
- Seismic Source Characterization (to be presented by Jadranka
Mihaljevic, Montenegro)
- Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Western Balkans (to be
presented by Dr. Neki Kuka, Albania)
Actions
Responsible
Participation on SE-50ECEE Special Session to Be Confirmed
SE-50ECEE Paper
4.
Deadline
Project CoDirectors
ASAP
Prof. Gulerce
12 May 13
Equipment Purchase
Conclusions
Decisions
Each Partner Country declared the equipment to be purchased:
-
Albania: (2) Nanometrics Trident Digitizers (budget: 8,000 euro)
Croatia: (2) Guralp accelerographs (budget: 8,500 euro)
Macedonia: (4) Guralp accelerographs (budget: 16,000 euro)
Montenegro: (2) Geotech accelerographs + 1 high resolution
recorder + equipment (budget: 16,000 euro)
Serbia: (1) Kinemetrics Digitizer + (1) Kinemetrics BB seismometer.
Installation, site preparation, instrument testing and connection to the national
seismological network is not included in these budgets.
A little increase in the budget might be expected since BiH equipment budget is
cancelled (to be agreed additionally).
Actions
Request for quotation for instruments to be send to the Vendors
5.
BiH Partner Participation in the Project
Responsible
Prof. Gulerce
Deadline
ASAP
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
Conclusions
Decisions
Summary given by Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce
Many efforts were put in place to resolve the BiH Partner Participation in the
project:
-
Contacts to NATO SfP Office Representatives Ms. Deniz Berdan and
Mr. Eyüp Turmus (September/October 2012)
NATO SfP Office Representative level discussions with BiH NATO
delegates (November 2012)
NATO BiH delegate efforts (Until February 2013)
Desicion of NATO SfP Office (February 2013) :
-
BiH Co-director Mr. Hrvatovic will be hired as independent expert.
Possible Outcomes:
-
Equipment budget of BiH might be added to equipment budget of
other participants (16.000 euro)
Remaining budget might be used for contribution (time and
travels) of Mr. Hrvatovic (or other expert/experts)
WP3 leader country is agreed to be Montenegro (Mr. Hrvatovic will
be contributing as independent expert)
Re-schedule of workshops and meetings
There is possibility to be hired additional experts that might contribute to the
project (to be discussed and agreed).
Actions
Contact with Prof. Hrvatovic for the Consultancy
Proposals for possible independents consultants (if any)
6.
Responsible
Prof. Gulerce
Project CoDirectors
Deadline
ASAP
ASAP
Other
Conclusions
Decisions
6.1 Project Coordination: Planned WG Meetings and Workshops
Summary given by Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce
-
-
Workshop for Earthquake Catalog Compilation Croatia (September
2013); final
Two Meetings for the Accelometric Databank in Montenegro
(2013) and Macedonia (2014)
Seismic Source Characterization Workshop in Montenegro (January
2014)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Meeting in Albania (May
2014)
Closing workshop in Turkey (September 2014)
6.2 Training for Young Scientists
o
Training on Strong Motion Data Processing and Filtering in Turkey
- Prof. Dr. Sinan Akkar and his team
- Young scientist who will perform data processing and filtering
(ideally one person from each country)
- Possible in Summer 2013 (one week training)
NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
o
Training on PSHA Software and Sensitivity Analysis in Albania
- Prof. Dr. Neki Kuka and Jadranka Mihaljevic
- Young scientist who will perform PSHA runs (one young scentists
from Turkey will be trained and perform sensitivity )
- Possible in Summer 2013 (two week training)
6.3 Additional Presentations
As contribution to the workshop (2) addittional presentations were given
not dirrecly related to the project.
-
-
Distant Deep Earthquake Impact on Seismic Hazard in Serbia, by
Slavica Radovanovic, M.Sc.
ADSHRA Integrated system for seismic risk management, Prof. Dr.
Zoran Milutinovic
Actions
Responsible
Dates to be proposed for the 3rd Project Workshop to be held in
Prof. Markusic
Croatia
Dates to be proposed for Training on Strong Motion Data
Prof. Gulerce
Processing and Filtering in Turkey
Dates to be proposed for Training on PSHA Software and
Prof. Kuka
Sensitivity Analysis in Albania
Deadline
31 July 13
31 May 13
31 May 13