Science-Policy Confluence Conference
Day One: Current State of the Lakes and Necessary Future Research
Framing the Issue: State of Nutrient Management and Great Lakes Water Quality—Dr. Jeffrey
Reutter
Dr. Jeffrey Reutter of the Ohio State University began with a brief overview of the state of
nutrient management and Great Lakes water quality, using Lake Erie as an example. Lake Erie
receives more sediment and nutrients than other lakes because it has “the least forest, the most
agriculture, and the second most urban-suburban land.”
Key Points




Better knowledge of surrounding land use will help scientists understand the kinds of
nutrients entering the Lakes and where they’re coming from
The “flush out rate”/”retention time” in the Western Basin of Lake Erie is only 20-50
days. If we can manage nutrient loads better, we can turn things around quickly. Other
Great Lakes’ times longer and thus slower to rectify.
Progress was made in Lake Erie during the 1970s by heavily reducing phosphorus from
point sources. We can create positive change by reducing non-point source phosphorus
runoff by changing the timing and methods of application of agricultural inputs.
More research needs to be devoted to understanding precipitation patterns, nutrient load
per acre, and the interacting factors of thermal pollution and nutrient loads.
Case Studies: Lake Erie’s Western Basin and Lake Ontario—Todd Ambs (moderator), Dr. Anna
Michalak, Elin Betanzo, Gail Hesse, Lisa Trevisan
The first panel discussed the ongoing scientific research occurring in Lake Erie’s Western Basin
and Lake Ontario. The panel aimed to explore the science behind today’s environmental
challenges and management practices in both Lakes Erie and Ontario, as well as some of the
policy options currently under consideration.
Dr. Anna Michalak of Stanford University spoke on her participation in a five-year ongoing
study of harmful algal blooms and hypoxic zones in the Western Basin. So far, scientists have
observed a record-breaking harmful algal bloom (HAB) in 2011, the single-largest hypoxic zone
in 2012 since the mid-1980s when singular modeling of dissolved oxygen began, the second
largest HAB in 2013, and the largest ice cover in 35 years in 2014. Clearly, Lake Erie has seen
many extreme events in the past five years.
Key Points

“All of this is happening within the context of a system that is very variable in and of
itself, in terms of climate, meteorology, etc. Regarding year-to-year variability,

meteorology plays a huge role, and as meteorology changes with climate change, we
need to account for those changes in our design of management strategies.”
The three main influences that contributed to the massive 2011 HAB were land use,
agricultural practices, and meteorology. All three factors found to be important in 2011
are expected to be observed more intensely in the future, indicating that this was not an
isolated event and may be observed in the future.
Elin Betanzo of the Northeast-Midwest Institute spoke on her work to determine if existing
monitoring data in the Lake Erie drainage basin is sufficient to make scientifically sound water
policy decisions.
Key Points


“If a 40% change in total phosphorus is happening in a watershed, you would be able to
detect that within 10 years of monthly sampling, but if the total phosphorus load change
within a watershed is 10%, it would take 40 or more years of monthly sampling to be able
to detect that change. At current voluntary implementation rates, we can expect a 10%
total phosphorus load reduction.” This indicates that we need to plan for at least 10 years
of monitoring, and optimize agricultural management practices to maximize water quality
change in order to minimize detection time.
It is essential to maintain and increase tributary water monitoring, increase sampling
frequency, and collect and share detailed data on management practices and other
changes to the land, nutrient sources, and climate within monitored watersheds.
Gail Hesse, Executive Director of the Ohio Lake Erie Commission, focused on the importance of
adaptive management approaches when dealing with phosphorus loads in the Great Lakes. Much
uncertainty still exists with respect to how phosphorus moves through the soil and is delivered to
the Lakes, whether phosphorus is being delivered in small quantities over a large area, from
hotspots, or both, and how weather patterns impact nutrient loads and discharge. Hesse noted
that it is essential to keep our minds open as we respond to new information, especially when it
changes our worldview. Adaptive management has thus become an important concept as we
move forward as that approach allows us to correct if we aren’t seeing expected results.
Key Points


It is essential to have an adaptable monitoring system that can track changes as they
occur, as what we decide is beneficial today may change tomorrow, especially in the face
of variable climatic conditions.
We must create more opportunities for collaborative analysis and exchange. Bringing
different disciplines together to educate each other on what is happening can inform
policy change. To be effective we need to be open to new information as it presents itself.
In other words, we must focus on a “conversation with a center, not sides.”
Lisa Trevisan of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change discussed the
sources of nutrients in Lake Ontario and their impacts. The main nutrient stressors there are from
growing urban centers on the lakes’ north shore, high population density, urban storm water
pollution, sewage treatment plants, and agricultural activity. Due to these anthropogenic
influences, Cladophora, a genus of green algae, is increasingly colonizing north shore beaches
and shoreline.
Key Points



Nutrient-related problems often pose economic questions: How do we handle necessary
infrastructure expansions? How do we support the agricultural community while limiting
non-point source runoff? Answering these questions will result in more effective
solutions for all parties involved.
Further research on Cladophora, specifically, is necessary. A few research questions
proposed included: determining which nutrient sources drive the overabundance of
Cladophora, determining if controlling local to regional nutrient inputs to the nearshore
would decrease the presence of Cladophora, and understanding why Cladophora is still
abundant in seemingly low nutrient areas.
Going forward, other research and management needs include: quantifying and predicting
the biological response of reduced external loads, undertaking source modeling and
quantification of the effectiveness of best management practices, and identifying source
watersheds where targeted actions would lead to measurable and achievable nutrient
reductions.
Case Studies: Lake Michigan’s Green Bay and Lake Huron’s Saginaw Bay—Dr. Nancy
Tuchman (moderator), Dr. J. Val Klump, Dr. Kevin Fermanich, Michelle Selzer, Dr. Craig Stow
This panel discussed the ongoing scientific research occurring in Lake Michigan’s Green Bay
and Lake Huron’s Saginaw Bay. The panel aimed specifically to understand the causes of the
dead zone in Green Bay and what is needed to prevent it, the challenges facing Saginaw Bay, a
designated Area of Concern, as well as some policy options currently under consideration.
Dr. J. Val Klump of the School of Freshwater Sciences at the University of WisconsinMilwaukee spoke on monitoring the hypoxic zone in Lake Michigan’s Green Bay.
Key Points


“It’s taken decades to impair it and it will take decades to repair it.”
“Green Bay is stratified largely by an exchange with Lake Michigan. So its cool Lake
Michigan water which flows in along the bottom, as it flows south it’s flowing over these
very organic-rich sediments, and the oxygen is gradually being sucked out of it. As a
result, you get this southward flow, this hypoxic water becoming more and more hypoxic
as it moves south. So the conditions for dead zones, or hypoxia, in Green Bay are very

intimately tied with the circulation and hydrodynamics of this system.” The impacts from
this system: very few organisms able to withstand these low levels of dissolved oxygen.
Climate change represents a large unknown in solving the problem of the Green Bay dead
zone. “Our goal is to develop a set of integrated models—hydrodynamic models,
biogeochemistry models, watershed loading models—and ask the question: under a
changed climate, what would the management practices be that we can put in place today
with the goal of a 50% reduction in nutrient loading and hold up under changing climate
conditions?”
Dr. Kevin Fermanich of the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay continued the discussion of
nutrient loading in Lake Michigan’s Green Bay.



“The ‘veins’ of Green Bay are fed by man’s land uses,” with the dairy industry and
concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) playing a significant role in
contributing phosphorus, primarily from manure, to the Green Bay watershed. Point
sources contribute about 20% of runoff nutrients, whereas agricultural sources contribute
about 50%.
Inconsistent funding cycles have created fragmented data collection.
Moving forward, it is critical that watershed managers and stakeholders devise
comprehensive management plans. “We have high [nutrient] concentrations, especially
during risky times of the year, and we need to figure out ways to reduce that. Our current
nutrient management planning process of the phosphorus risk index will not get us there.
So we need to look at ways to move us in the right direction, not only during events, but
also during seasons when we have poor weather conditions for applying manure.”
Michelle Selzer of the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) spoke on Lake
Huron’s Saginaw Bay watershed and Michigan’s Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOC) program.
Key Points



Michigan has 14 AOC sites, each with several beneficial use impairments (BUIs),
including eutrophication. The entire Saginaw Bay is an AOC with nine BUIs remaining
of 12 originally listed in 1987.
In 2006, the Michigan state legislature withdrew DEQ rulemaking authority to update
Water Quality standards. Therefore, a narrative approach is used which makes
management much more difficult.
Michigan water quality rules establish that all Michigan waters are designated and
protected for eight specific uses, including “other indigenous aquatic life and wildlife.”
Saginaw Bay is currently listed as “insufficient information” in terms of making a use
determination for the Other Indigenous Life designated use. More research is needed to
list waterbodies in the watershed and the bay as impaired for the Other Indigenous Life
designated use.

While nutrient runoff is often traced back to agriculture, “farmers are offering solutions
that we can bring back to policy makers. They want to be involved.”
Dr. Craig Stow of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory discussed the long history of environmental problems in
Saginaw Bay; eutrophication is only one. Dr. Stow remarked how to properly convey scientific
data, even in situations of uncertainty, to policymakers.


Gaps in monitoring data, often due to inconsistent funding, impede understanding; it is
difficult to observe patterns in a dataset that has periods without monitoring data.
Due to the uncertain climatic changes on the horizon, “environmental decision-making is
decision-making under uncertainty.” However, “uncertainty is not an excuse to not do
anything, we always know enough to at least do something.” Armed with plenty of
scientific data to act now, Dr. Stow suggested that “we need a long-term political will to
solve some of these problems.”
Evening Program—Susan Hedman
The evening concluded with remarks from Susan Hedman, U.S. EPA Region V Administrator
and Great Lakes National Program Manager, who discussed what the EPA is currently doing to
reduce nutrient loading in the Great Lakes.
Key Points



“During the past five years, we’ve made a lot of progress on the combined sewer
overflow problem. The consent decrees that Region V has finalized in just the last year
will prevent over 73 billion gallons of raw sewage from entering our waters each year.”
“To facilitate green infrastructure investments, during the past several years, EPA has
been setting aside 20% of Clean Water State Revolving Fund capitalization grants for
green infrastructure projects. Green infrastructure projects are not just a tool to be used to
address combined sewer overflows. These projects also produce other benefits, such as
creating parkland, reducing the urban heat island effect, and preventing urban runoff,
which typically contains nitrogen, and phosphorus from fertilizers, and pet and yard
waste, and is a significant source of nutrient loading in densely populated areas around
the Great Lakes.”
“To encourage Great Lakes shoreline cities to expand green infrastructure, to reduce
urban runoff, EPA has started to offer Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funding to
supplement local initiatives in green infrastructure that promote Great Lakes water


quality. Last year, EPA awarded shoreline cities grants totaling just under $7 million to
16 cities.”
“In Illinois, EPA increased oversight of state CAFO permitting and enforcement. In
2011, EPA Region V developed a formal work plan designed to help Illinois EPA
strengthen these programs. As a result of our increased oversight, Illinois has improved
standard operating procedures for permitting and enforcement, developed an inventory of
CAFOs across the state and has increased the number of CAFO inspections.”
“During the past four years, since the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was launched in
2010, EPA has been able to significantly expand its funding for nutrient control projects.
In fact, we’ve tripled it in agricultural areas in the Great Lakes Basin. So far, we’ve used
about $250 million from the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative for projects in impaired
Great Lakes watersheds, and to support science and monitoring associated with that
work.”