Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School Statistics (CP) 2014-2015 Email prios@sthelenaunified.org LMS www.myhaikuclass.com/paige.rios/cpstatistics Twitter @shhsrios Website https://sites.google.com/site/riosshhs/ Brief Description of Course: This course will emphasize statistics as a practical discipline. The material will require students to discuss the problem and justify the method (think), to do some work by hand or technology (show), and to draw a reasoned conclusion that responds to the initial motivation for the exercise (tell). The course will examine data analysis through statistical graphs, standard deviation, sampling variability, inference, data re-expression, sample surveys and experiments, and probability distributions. Students using data from issues that students are likely to encounter in everyday life from games of chance, politics, business, social sciences, science, and sports. The pacing of the material will allow students to explore statistics through eleven modules: I. IV. VII. X. Stats and Data Analysis Modeling Non Linear Relationships II. Summarizing Data III. V. Bivariate Categorical Data and Intro to Probability VI. Probability and Inference Inference- Means VIII. Inference – One Proportions Chi-Squared IX. XI. Modeling Linear Relationships Formalizing Probability and Probability Distributions Inference – Two Proportions Course Material: • Primary Textbook: Bock, David E, Paul F. Vellemen and Richard D. DeVeaux. Stats: Modeling the World. 2nd edition; Boston: Pearson/Addison Wesley, 2007. • Students are expected to have a TI-83, TI-84+, or TI-Inspire calculator for this course. • A spiral notebook or composition book to keep notes and Stats Journals is required. • A binder or folder to keep handouts organized is also required. 2014-2015 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School Grading: Quizzes/Exams 50% Problem Sets/Stats Journals/Homework 35% In-class Activities 15% This is a college-preparatory math class different from any other completed in the past. Statisticians work on displaying and describing data so that data analysis may take place. In today’s world, we are collecting data at an unprecedented rate from the fields of commerce, medicine, sports, and education, just to name a few. The analysis of this data leads to decision making which impacts everything we do. Therefore, mathematical computation is only one piece of the puzzle in statistical analysis. Showing data in displays and written explanations of results are also used to complete analysis. This course will follow a Think-Show-Tell as we work with data. Investigative activities aid in learning the material. Students are expected to be active participants in the learning process everyday. Course Expectations All work assigned acts as an assessment of conceptual understanding. Given that, each assignment will be scored for accuracy not simply completion. Reading/Videos Students are expected to read the corresponding textbook assignment and take notes. In addition, videos posted on the LMS to provide additional examination of each chapter’s topics. 2014-2015 Problem Sets Stats Journals Each module will have corresponding problem set(s) assigned. Due dates will be listed on the problem sets. Students are encouraged to work on these each night and use them as a tool to guide study groups. Due dates for problem sets are firm. If you are absent, it is expected that you get your problem set turned in. Spiral notebooks or composition books will be used to keep notes and responses to “Stats Journal” prompts. The Stats Journals will be graded approximately once per month. Students will be responsible to keep their journals updated and complete. The LMS will be maintained for student’s to reference prompts. Quizzes and Exams Each module will have at least one quiz to assess your understanding of the concepts presented in the module. In addition, there will be a midterm (Oct 2, 2014 and March 12, 2015) and a final at the end of each semester. These exams will be cumulative exams. Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School 2014-2015 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School Pacing Module Title (end date) I. Stats and Data Analysis (Sept 18) Lessons Lesson 1.1.1: The Statistical Analysis Process Lesson 1.1.2: Types of Statistical Studies and Scope of Conclusions Lesson 1.2.1: Collecting Data by Sampling Lesson1.2.2:RandomSampling Lesson 1.2.3: Other Sampling Strategies Lesson 1.2.4: Sources of Bias in Sampling Lesson 1.3.1: Collecting Data by Conducting an Experiment Lesson 1.3.2: Other Design Considerations—Blinding, Control Groups, and Placebos Lesson 1.4.1: Drawing Conclusions from Statistical Studies II. Summarizing Data Graphically and Numerically (Oct 13) Lesson 2.1.1: Dotplots, Histograms, and Distributions for Quantitative Data Lesson 2.1.2: Constructing Histograms for MIDTERM ON October 2, 2014 Quantitative Data Lesson 2.1.3: Comparing Distributions of Quantitative Data in Two END OF FIRST QUARTER October 10, 2014 Independent Samples Lesson 2.2.1: Quantifying the Center of a Distribution—Sample Mean and Sample Median Lesson 2.2.2: Constructing Histograms for Quantitative Data Lesson 2.3.1: Quantifying Variability Relative to the Median Lesson 2.4.1: Quantifying Variability Relative to the Mean Lesson 2.4.2: The Sample Variance 2014-2015 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School III. Modeling Linear Relationships (November 13) Lesson 3.1.1: Intro to Scatterplots and Bivariate Relationships Lesson 3.1.2: Form, Direction and Strength Lesson 3.1.3: Correlation Coefficient Lesson 3.1.4: Correlation Formula Lesson 3.1.5: Correlation is NOT Causation Lesson 3.2.1: Making Predictions with Lines Lesson 3.2.2: LSRL as a Line of Best Fit Lesson 3.2.3: Meaning of Numbers in LSRL Lesson 3.2.4: Special Properies of LSRL Lesson 3.3.1: Using Residuals to measure Good Fit Lesson 3.3.2: Using Residuals to Determine is a Line is a Good Model IV. Modeling NonLinear Relationships Lesson 4.1.1: Investigating Patterns in Data Lesson 4.1.2: Exponential Models Lesson 4.1.3: Assessing How Well a Model Fits the Data V. Bivariate Categorical Data and Intro to Probability (December 12) Lesson 5.1.1: Reasoning about Risk and Chance Lesson 5.1.2: Defining Risk Lesson 5.1.3: Interpreting Risk Lesson 5.1.4: Comparing Risk Lesson 5.1.5: More on Conditional Risks Final Exam (Third Week in December) VI. Formalizing Probability and Probability Distributions (January 29) 2014-2015 Modules 1-5 Lesson 6.1.1: Probability Lesson 6.1.2: Probability Rules Lesson 6.1.3: Simulation, Discrete Random Variables, Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School and Probability Distributions Lesson 6.2.1: Probability Distributions of Continuous Random Variables Lesson 6.2.2: Z-Scores and Normal Distributions Lesson 6.2.3: Using Normal Distributions to Find Probabilities and Critical Values VII. Linking Probability to Inference (February 20) Lesson 7.1.1: Statistics and Sampling Variability Lesson 7.1.2: Sampling from a Population Lesson 7.1.3: Testing Statistical Hypotheses Lesson 7.2.1: Two Types of Inferential Procedures Lesson 7.2.2: Distributions and Confidence Intervals Lesson 7.2.3: Distributions and Hypothesis Testing VIII. Inference for One Proportion (March 12) MIDTERM March 12 END OF THIRD QUARTER March 17 IX. Inference for Two Proportions (April 3) Lessons 8.1.1-8.1.2: Sampling Distribution of One Proportion Lessons 8.2.1- 8.3.1: Estimation of One Proportion Lesson 8.3.2: Hypothesis Testing for One Proportion Lesson 9.1.1: Sampling Distribution of Difference in Two Proportions Lesson 9.1.2.: Exploring Sampling Distribution of Difference in Two Proportions Lesson 9.2.1: Confidence Intervals for Difference in Two Population Proportions Lesson 9.2.2: Computing and Interpreting CI for Difference in Two Proportions Lessons 9.3.1-9.3.3: Statistical Tests for the Difference in Two Proportions 2014-2015 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School X. Inference for Means (May 11) Lessons 10.1.1-10.1.2: The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean Lesson 10.2.1: Estimating a Population Mean Lesson 10.2.2: T-Statistics and T-Distributions Lesson 10.2.3: CI for a Population Mean Lesson 10.3.1: Testing Hypotheses about a Population Mean Lesson 10.3.2: P-Values, One Sample T-Test Lesson 10.4.1: Inference about the Difference Between Two Population Means Lesson 10.4.2: Inference for Paired Data Lesson 10.4.3: Two-Sample T-Test XI. Chi-Squared Tests (May 29) Lessons 11.1.1-11.1.3: Chi-Square Tests for One Way Tables Lessons 11.2.1-11.2.3: Chi-Square Tests for Two-Way Tables Final Exam First Week in June 2014-2015 Modules 6-11 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School 2014-2015 Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School Unit/ Chapter III/11 Understanding Randomness Objectives -randomness and simulation design III/12 Sample Surveys -terminology of sampling -population parameters -bias in sampling III/13 Experiments and Observational Studies -identifying elements of observational studies -principles of experimental design -effects of confounding and lurking variables on experiments and obs studies. Midterm Gathering Data IV/14 Probability -random phenomena -Law of Large Numbers -disjoint vs independent -Addition, Multiplication and Complement rules IV/15 Probability Rules -General Addition and Multiplication Rules -conditional probability -independence -tree diagrams IV/16 Random Variables -creating probability models -expected values -combining means and variances IV/17 Probability Models -Bernoulli trials -geometric and binomial models -success/failure condition Midterm Randomness and Probability V/18 Sampling Distribution Models -Central Limit Theorem -mean and std dev of sample distributions -standard error V/19 Confidence Intervals for Proportions -construction of one-proportion zintervals -margin of error -interpretation of one-proportion z-interval 2014-2015 Activities Exam Exam Due Dates Statistics (CP) Syllabus Paige Rios St Helena High School Unit/ Chapter Objectives V/20 Testing Hypotheses for Proportions -null and alternative hypotheses -conditions for z-test -perform a one-proportion z-test -interpret results of oneproportion z-test V/21 More About Tests -connecting hypothesis tests and confidence intervals -P-values and statistical significance -alpha levels and critical values -Type I and II errors -power and effect V/22 Comparing Two Proportions -hypotheses for testing difference of two proportions -confidence intervals and z-tests for the difference in two proportions -conditions for testing Midterm From Data at Hand to the World at Large VI/23 Inference About Means -assumptions for t-tests and intervals -compute and interpret t-tests and t-intervals VI/24 Comparing Means -conditions and assumptions for two-sample t-test and two-sample t-interval -perform and interpret two-sample t-tests and intervals -degrees of freedom VI/25 Paired Samples and Blocks -recognize whether two groups are paired or not -perform paired t-tests and create paired confidence intervals -interpret results of paired tests VI/26 Comparing Counts (ChiSquare) -Chi-square tests of goodness of fit, independence and homogeneity. -check conditions, perform and interpret above tests Final Exam 2014-2015 Activities Due Dates Exam June 2014