Do Warmer Seas Make Stronger Hurricanes?
Hand-out for Teachers
Source: http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fairprojects/project_ideas/OceanSci_p005.shtml?from=Home#summary
Overview:
We've all heard that hurricanes draw their immense power from warm ocean waters. Of
course, many factors contribute to the formation and growth of a hurricane, but can we
expect to find that the warmer the water, the stronger the hurricane will be? This project
shows you how to use online data archives to investigate this question.
Grade Level:
Late middle school, high school
Time Required:
-Depends on how many storms are investigated
-Could take several days
Student Learning Objectives:
The goal of this project is to test the hypothesis that warmer seas make stronger
hurricanes. You will collect historical data on hurricane strength and sea surface
temperature to see if these two variables are correlated.
Science Education Standards Addressed:
State Standards:
Earth and Space Science 4B- Interpret the patterns in temperature and precipitation that
produce the climate regions on Earth and relate them to the hazards associated with
extreme weather events and climate change (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, El Niño/La Niña,
global warming).
MS 8th grade Inquiry 1D— Analyze evidence that is used to form explanations and draw
conclusions
Next Generation Science Standards
Common Core Standard
CCSS.ELA-Science and Technical Subjects-- Compare and contrast the information
gained from experiments, simulations, video, or multimedia sources with that gained
from reading a text on the same topic.
Material Needed:
-Computer Lab with internet
Extensions:
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More advanced students can do further analysis to examine the statistical significance of
the correlation using the linear regression technique. For comparison, you might want to
also look at the correlation between central pressure and wind speed (should be strongly
correlated). See the Science Buddies project Which Team Batting Statistic Predicts Run
Production Best? for an example of statistical correlation analysis using a spreadsheet
program.
The hurricane data in your table was collected every six hours, or four times in each 24hour period. Does the peak intensity of each hurricane tend to occur at different times of
day or at the same time of day? What does this tell you? The buoy data also includes air
temperature. What is the correlation between hurricane strength and air temperature?
In addition to water temperature, the data buoys also collect information on wave height,
air pressure, wind direction, and wind speed. Many other projects are possible using this
data. For example: how far away from the hurricane center is wave height affected? How
does this vary with the strength of the storm (minimum pressure at the center)? How does
the wind direction change as the hurricane passes through?
One problem with the buoy data used in this project is that there are relatively few buoys.
This means that the temperature data is often collected at a point distant from the
hurricane. You may want to measure the distance More advanced students can use highresolution satellite data for sea surface temperature measurement. The data set begins in
2002, and is available from http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/. You will have to learn how
to access the data from the instructions on the page.
How does the amount of time a hurricane spends over warm water affect its strength? Do
hurricanes with longer tracks over warm water grow stronger than hurricanes with shorter
tracks over warm water?