Online Resource 14. Impact of Alternative
Social Cost of Carbon Values on Monetized
Impacts of POL3.7 Implementation
Climatic Change Article: Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change
Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the
United States
Authors: David Mills, Russell Jones, Karen Carney, Alexis St. Juliana, Richard
Ready, Allison Crimmins, Jeremy Martinich, Kate Shouse, Benjamin DeAngelo, and
Erwan Monier
Corresponding author: David Mills, Stratus Consulting Inc.,
DMills@stratusconsulting.com
As described in Online Resource 6, the U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social
Cost of Carbon (2013) provides four different social cost of carbon (SCC) estimates
on an annual basis from 2010 to 2050. The SCC estimates represent the present value
of all future impacts from a marginal change in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,
discounted back to the date of emission, but denominated in constant 2007 dollars.
Three of the SCC estimates represent the model average at discount rates of 2.5%,
3.0%, and 5.0%. The fourth SCC value is the 95th percentile of the model estimates
at a 3.0% discount rate. The interagency group included the 95th percentile estimate
to account for the risk that climate change damages may be much higher than the
damages associated with the model average SCC estimates (U.S. Interagency
Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 2010).
The tables below provide a comparison of monetized impacts of implementing the
POL3.7 emissions controls over the period 2000–2100 using these different series of
results with the emission scenarios considered (note that Table 14.1 is presented as
Table E-2 in the errata to the original article following identification of a
methodological error in the original article – it is presented here again for
completeness).
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Table 14.1 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage
Decade
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
Change in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (POL3.7 – REF, billions of metric tons)
2001–2010
(0.3)
1.1
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.2)
0.0
0.0
2011–2020
0.4
1.1
0.4
1.2
1.8
0.1
0.0
2021–2030
(0.1)
(1.0)
2.4
0.2
(0.9)
0.1
(0.0)
2031–2040
(0.3)
(0.6)
(1.9)
0.1
(1.0)
(0.0)
(0.1)
2041–2050
0.5
0.4
(0.6)
(1.4)
0.1
0.2
(0.1)
2051–2060
0.5
(1.5)
(0.2)
1.4
(1.3)
0.4
0.1
2061–2070
0.7
(1.2)
(0.5)
(3.0)
0.4
0.2
(0.0)
2071–2080
(1.2)
0.5
(0.5)
1.0
(1.4)
0.3
0.1
2081–2090
0.3
(0.8)
0.3
(1.0)
0.5
0.1
0.1
2091–2100
(0.3)
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
(1.6)
0.1
(0.6)
(0.5)
1.4
0.2
Total
IGSM-CAM average
Standard deviation (SD)
(0.5)
0.8
2
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
CAM: Community Atmospheric Model, CCSM: Community Climate System Model, IGSM: Integrated Global Systems Model, MIROC: Model for
Interdisciplinary Research on Climate.
Table 14.2 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage, valuation using the average SCC discounted at 3%
Decade
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
Discounted monetized values for projected changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (POL3.7 – REF, billions US$ 2005 use of the average SCC
discounted at 3%)
2001–2010
($42)
$141
($8)
($37)
($26)
$0
($2)
2011–2020
$49
$138
$49
$155
$226
$12
$2
2021–2030
($12)
($130)
$289
$25
($103)
$8
($0)
2031–2040
($32)
($65)
($197)
$12
($111)
($2)
($8)
2041–2050
$49
$36
($44)
($140)
$16
$22
($9)
2051–2060
$45
($124)
($11)
$104
($105)
$29
$4
2061–2070
$54
($76)
($29)
($199)
$31
$12
($0)
2071–2080
($69)
$40
($28)
$59
($67)
$17
$5
2081–2090
$16
($39)
$16
($44)
$24
$5
$4
2091–2100
($14)
$12
$28
$45
$55
($0)
$2
3
Table 14.2 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage, valuation using the average SCC discounted at 3%
Decade
Total
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
$44
($67)
$65
($20)
($61)
$103
($2)
IGSM-CAM average
$8
SD
$60
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
4
Table 14.3 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage, valuation using SCC discounted at 3%, 95th percentile estimate
Decade
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
Discounted monetized values for projected changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (POL3.7 – REF, billions US$ 2005 using the 95th
percentile SCC)
2001–2010
($117)
$390
($23)
($101)
($71)
$1
($4)
2011–2020
$146
$421
$121
$439
$677
$34
$7
2021–2030
($35)
($388)
$879
$77
($313)
$25
($0)
2031–2040
($100)
($202)
($609)
$37
($343)
($6)
($24)
2041–2050
$153
$113
($137)
($434)
$50
$68
($28)
2051–2060
$142
($388)
($35)
$330
($332)
$93
$11
2061–2070
$170
($243)
($92)
($631)
$97
$39
($1)
2071–2080
($221)
$126
($89)
$187
($216)
$54
$16
2081–2090
$52
($125)
$51
($143)
$77
$15
$12
2091–2100
($44)
$38
$89
$145
$179
($1)
$6
Total
$147
($258)
$155
($94)
($195)
$322
($4)
IGSM-CAM average
($49)
SD
$192
5
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
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Table 14.4 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage, valuation using the average SCC discounted at 2.5%
Decade
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
Discounted monetized values for projected changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (POL3.7 – REF, billions US$ 2005 use of the average
SCC discounted at 2.5%)
2001–2010
($66)
$221
($13)
($57)
($40)
$0
($2)
2011–2020
$76
$210
$79
$240
$346
$18
$4
2021–2030
($18)
($199)
$448
$39
($160)
$13
($0)
2031–2040
($51)
($103)
($311)
$19
($175)
($3)
($12)
2041–2050
$79
$59
($74)
($224)
$23
$35
($14)
2051–2060
$75
($203)
($19)
$176
($175)
$49
$6
2061–2070
$90
($133)
($51)
($341)
$52
$21
($0)
2071–2080
($122)
$67
($50)
$103
($123)
$30
$9
2081–2090
$30
($71)
$28
($82)
$43
$9
$7
2091–2100
($25)
$24
$54
$86
$107
($0)
$4
$67
($128)
$91
($42)
($102)
$172
$0
Total
IGSM-CAM average
SD
($23)
$98
7
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
8
Table 14.5 POL3.7 impacts on carbon storage, valuation using the average SCC discounted at 5%
Decade
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 1)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 13)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 14)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 26)
IGSM-CAM
(WIND = 28)
MIROC
CCSM
Discounted monetized values for projected changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (POL3.7 – REF, billions US$ 2005 use of the average
SCC discounted at 5%)
2001–2010
($16)
$52
($3)
($13)
($9)
$0
($1)
2011–2020
$13
$31
$26
$51
$56
$3
$1
2021–2030
($3)
($33)
$70
$6
($25)
$2
$0
2031–2040
($7)
($15)
($44)
$2
($25)
($1)
($2)
2041–2050
$10
$7
($7)
($29)
$5
$4
($2)
2051–2060
$8
($22)
($1)
$16
($17)
$5
$0
2061–2070
$9
($10)
($3)
($28)
$5
$2
($0)
2071–2080
($9)
$6
($3)
$7
($7)
$2
$1
2081–2090
$2
($4)
$2
($5)
$3
$0
$0
2091–2100
($1)
$1
$2
$4
$4
($0)
$0
$5
$13
$38
$12
($11)
$18
($2)
Total
IGSM-CAM average
$11
SD
$18
9
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
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References
U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon (2010) Technical support document: Social
cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis under Executive Order 12866
U.S. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon (2013) Technical support document:
Technical update of the social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis under Executive Order
12866. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/social_cost_of_carbon_for_ria_
2013_update.pdf. Accessed 5 August 2013
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