Final Draft : Ver. 27 April 2015
3rd Regional Workshop on
“Risk Sensitive Investment Planning”
Focusing on Probabilistic Risk Assessment
28 – 30 April 2015 – Bangkok, Thailand
Venue: Swissotel Nai Lert Park, 2 Wireless Road ▪ Bangkok 10330 ▪ Thailand
Agenda
Background and Context
In order to assist countries in enhancing their capacities in risk sensitive investment planning,
UNISDR has initiated a programme to support countries in estimating their disaster risks and
optimize their investment plans to tackle these risks. With the above context a one day regional
workshop was organized in Bangkok on 25 April 2014 and the initiative of risk sensitive public
investment planning through sound risk information and evidence base was discussed with six
countries in the Asian region. Followed by the inception meeting in April, a second three day
regional workshop was organized on 15-17 October 20141. This regional workshop discussed
and reviewed practical tools, steps, methodologies and enabling factors that can allow a country
to generate a comprehensive risk profile on which optimal investment decisions can be based. It
also focused on how to optimize the use of this information to make sound DRR investment and
planning decisions.
The risk sensitive investment planning programme mainly focuses on four components as below:
Component 1: The development of national disaster loss databases that will generate the
necessary information for risk estimation, and will inform public investments in CCA and DRR.
Component 2: The initial estimate from the above process will be complemented with an
analytical assessment of catastrophic risk (flood, cyclone, landslide, drought and other climaterelated hazards, as well as geological origin hazards such as earthquake, volcanic eruptions and
tsunami). This will provide the basis for calculating how much risk a country must retain and
how much it could share through insurance mechanisms or other means. It will also provide
insights on how much the country should be investing in climate change adaptation and disaster
risk reduction and what an optimal portfolio of risk management investments could look like.
Component 3: A review of existing investments in climate change adaptation and risk reduction including the development of mechanisms to track investments - that will pave the way for
inclusion of DRR/CCA considerations in the countries investment
planning system. This will build on the risk estimations and optimal risk management portfolios
identified above.
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Please see the workshop report in annex
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Component 4: Broad sharing of the knowledge and information generated in the course of the
above process.
Towards implementation of the Component 2 above, three regional workshops are proposed as a
next step in the initiative and towards developing national disaster risk profiles through
probabilistic risk assessment.
A first 3-day workshop was held in Bangkok on 15 – 17 October 2014, which the main objective
of this workshop was to: enhance the understanding of the data requirements and methodological
processes required for assessing risk from natural hazards in a probabilistic way; familiarize with
risk information and data formats and the use of the results; initiate building the base of data for
start developing national risk profiles; facilitate the identification and consolidation of a focal
point for disaster risk information in each country.
As a next step on the component of capacity building on probabilistic risk assessment, a second
regional workshop on component 2 will be organized in Bangkok, Thailand, on 28 – 30 April
2015. The main objective of this 3-day workshop is that the participants share experiences and
issues in collecting and organizing exposure data and that at the end of the workshop participants
are familiarized with the concepts of hazard modeling and its representation through event-based
approaches, probabilistic risk assessment and its representation through hands-on sessions.
Profiles of the participants:
This work shop will be important for risk information producers (mainly technical from the
government and technical consultants). It is desirable that participants that assisted to the first
workshop can participate in the second regional workshop to ensure the continuity and the
complete capacity building. The two different profiles of participants required for this event are
Profile A: Technical personnel (government staff) producing, storing and maintaining risk
information. This should be personnel from the main DRR agencies that will be the main
referent for the decision makers when they need new or existing risk information. The profile
of these participants should have the following characteristics:
- Background in either civil or environmental engineering, architecture, geography,
urban planning, agricultural engineering, statistic, mathematic, environmental or
earth sciences;
- Experience in GIS\mapping;
Other characteristics that would be preferred in the profiles of the participants are:
- Experience with computer modelling
- Experience in the areas of hydraulic, hydrology, meteorology, geology
- Experience in quantifying flood and drought hazards
Profile B: The group of existing technical consultants, who are in charge of data
collection and processing.
Each country is requested to identify at least 2 participants; one from category A and one from
category B(already existing).
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AGENDA
Day 1: 28 April 2015
8.30-9.00 Registration of participants
9:00 – 9:30 Welcome and overview of the work plan and workshop’s objectives – Sujit Mohanty
Format: Introduction of the participants and communication of the workshop’s
objectives
9:30 – 10:15 Reflections from ‘2nd Regional Workshop on Risk Sensitive Investment Planning’
and briefing on overall initiative of “Risk Sensitive Investment Planning”
Format: Presentation
10:15 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 - 12:30 
Advances in the data gathering process – Mabel Marulanda
Format: Data gathering review for exposure information
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch
Overview of probabilistic modelling
14:00 – 16:00 
Overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodology, components and main
uses – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Theoretical presentation. Hazard representation. Characteristics of
exposure and vulnerability. Risk assessment mathematics. Examples of uses of risk
outcomes for risk management purposes.
16:00 – 16:15 Coffee break
16:15 – 17:15 
Vulnerability modeling – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Theoretical presentation. Definition of vulnerability. Main characteristics of
exposed elements that influence their vulnerability. Vulnerability functions.
17.15 – 17.30 Recap and discussion
17.30 Wrap up
Day 2: 29 April 2015
Hands-on on hazard assessment
8:30 – 10:00 
Seismic hazard assessment – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Theoretical presentation. Plate tectonics and seismicity. Seismic sources.
Strong motion attenuation. Hazard assessment.
10:00 – 11:00 
Site effects – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Theoretical presentation. Definition of site effects and their importance for
seismic hazard. Main approaches to modelling site effects.
11:00 – 11:15 Coffee break
11:15 – 12:30 
CRISIS – Claudia Villegas
Format: Hands-on session on the generation of seismic hazard AME files using the
software CRISIS.
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch
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14:00 – 15:30 
Tropical Cyclone’s hazard assessment – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Theoretical presentation. Cyclone tracks perturbation. Wind field
modelling. Storm surge run-up modelling.
15:30 – 15:45 Coffee break
15:45 – 17:00 
TCHM – Claudia Villegas
Format: Hands-on session on wind and storm surge modelling using the software
TCHM.
17.00 – 17.15 Recap and discussion
17.15 Wrap up
Day 3: 30 April 2015
Hands-on on risk results
8:30 – 9:30 
FileCAT – Claudia Villegas
Format: Hands-on session to review file formatting requirements for hazard,
exposed assets and vulnerability functions using the software FileCAT.
9:30 – 11:00 
CAPRA-GIS – Claudia Villegas
Format: Hands-on session to review the main visualization options on the program
and probabilistic hazard maps generation from AME files.
11:00 – 11:15 Coffee
11:15 – 12:30 
CAPRA-GIS – Claudia Villegas
Format: Hands-on session for the multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment of
seismic and tropical cyclone hazard on a selected portfolio.
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:15 
Results’ interpretation – Gabriel Bernal
Format: Hands-on session to review the output files, formatting and interpretation.
15.15 – 15.45 Recap and discussion
15.45 – 16.15 Participants feedback
16.15 Closure
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