WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
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TCM-8/Doc. 3.1
(23.X.2015)
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EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs
TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING
ITEM 3
MIAMI, FLORIDA, USA
2 TO 6 NOVEMBER 2015
ENGLISH ONLY
RECOMMENDATIONS of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document lists the recommendations resulting from the Eighth
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and the Third
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III)
both held Jeju, Korea in 2 - 10 December 2014 and the actions that have been
taken for those to WMO Programmes.
ACTION PROPOSED
The meeting is invited to review what progress has been made in the implementation of the
recommendations of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III, and discuss specifically on how to precede those
recommendations that are relevant to the activities of WMO and RSMCs and TCWCs.
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Appendix:
IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III Recommendations
TCM-8/Doc. 3.1, APPENDIX
IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III Recommendations
Recommendations addressed to WMO (7)
1.
That WMO facilitate the transition of new, successfully – tested Tropical Cyclone (TC)
techniques and algorithms from researchers/developers to operational environments (especially
developing countries). For example, innovative satellite – based methods that are showing promise
for TC analysis need to be integrated into local TC analysis/forecast offices for optimal
employment as guidance in the TC forecast process. WMO to assist identify resources for
providing this transition and subsequent training.
2.
That WMO encourages its Members to work together to realize the goal of regular and
coordinated aircraft reconnaissance in the western North Pacific and other TC basins geared
toward enhanced TC monitoring and resultant multi – day forecasts.
3.
That WMO consider new topics for future TC - related workshops. Such topics could
include societal impacts for the purpose of advancing the Total Warning System concept and for
the sharing of relevant experiences. In addition, and in view of the continuing need, previous
successful workshops such as TC Satellite Analysis and Extra tropical Transition should also be
taken into account.
4.
Recognizing the value and importance of the NRL Tropical Cyclone Site
[http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html] for both real-time operational use and as a resource for
researchers, the IWTC expresses concern that continuing development and availability of this
resource may cease. Reflecting on the exceptional value that operational centers in particular
place on this web site as a unique and effective means of providing global access to the full suite
of microwave imagery, the IWTC community recommends that WMO send a letter of
commendation to the development team at NRL-MRY in recognition of the significant contribution
they make to global disaster risk reduction.
5.
That WMO encourages continued efforts by the Working Group on Forecast Verification to
specify a basic set of TC verification metrics, such as time of landfall, for use by National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and partner agencies based on the
“Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts” document, with a view to delivering the basic
set at the next IWTC.
[http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WWRP_2013_7_TC_verification_15_N
ov_en.pdf]6.
6.
That WMO facilitate the standardization of the TC wind radii format so that RSMCs can
create best track records including metadata that will be used to verify statistical and NWP
guidance products.
7.
That WMO encourage the TC research community to focus on dynamical extended-range
and sub-seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity, making use of forecast model output
databases from the WWRP S2S project to systematically evaluate the skill of these forecasts.
IWTC also recommends accelerated research into the best ways to communicate the value,
uncertainties, and limitations of these forecasts to users.
Recommendations addressed to both Operational Centres and Research Community (6)
8.
In recognition of the theme of the IWTC-VIII, “Quantifying and Communicating Forecast
Uncertainty”:
PART A: The IWTC recommends that research and development of forecast guidance
products be undertaken on all aspects of TCs, especially leading up to and after landfall.
These products should include a specification of forecast uncertainty using e.g.,
TCM-8/Doc. 3.1, APPENDIX, p. 2
probabilistic or ensemble approaches. Furthermore, RSMCs/TCWCs should be
encouraged to provide TC forecast uncertainty as part of their TC warnings. To facilitate
this, successfully-researched guidance products to specify TC forecast uncertainty should
be widely shared with operational TC entities.
and
PART B: The IWTC also recommends that the TC Operational Community should engage
with social scientists to develop tools and provide education and training for meaningful
communication of risk to end users based on:
1) warnings; and
2) the forecast uncertainty associated with those warnings. This will help ensure that
appropriate community actions are taken in response to those TC warnings.
9.
That operational TC centers identify their most difficult forecast cases as well as extreme
events and make them available to the TC community via an online site (e.g.,
http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/). The TC research community is encouraged to use
this list to focus on model performance and explore the predictability of these events.
10.
That the TC research community explores the use of ensembles to produce probabilistic
rainfall output in addition to deterministic forecasts, with input from operational TC centers. These
forecasts should be used in conjunction with innovative rainfall observations for verification
purposes.
11.
That Members operating meteorological satellites provide adequate technical guidance and
training to operational TC centers, particularly in developing countries, for the smooth transition to
the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellites. IWTC also recommends that the TC
research community, in cooperation with the operational community, explores new techniques to
utilize these satellite data for improving operational TC analysis and forecasts.
12.
That the TC research and operational communities develop a forecast demonstration
project with the intent to improve the prediction of intensity, structure changes and rainfall of
landfalling TCs. The aim of the project would be to exchange information, data, and tools among
various research and operational groups around the world.
Note: This project may be achieved through selection of specific sets of challenging TCs in
different basins, carrying out sensitivity experiments, and adopting common diagnostic
tools for analysis via regular exchanges of information. Multi-lateral exchanges through
different international programmes, including those in WMO, may be explored for promoting
the success of this project. Early career forecasters and researchers should be encouraged
to actively participate in this project.
13.
That the TC research and operational communities develop a forecast demonstration
project for the real-time exchange of ensemble NWP data using the CXML format specification.
This could establish pathways for the future transition of THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
Ensemble (TIGGE) research outcomes into operations and, through close engagement with social
scientists, develop experimental products that encourage effective action based on probabilistic
forecasts.
Recommendations addressed to Forecast Agencies and Operational Forecasting Centres
(5)
14.
That RSMC/TCWCs archive all observations for each storm, including those unavailable
operationally, and make them available to the TC community on a voluntary basis, with as many
details as possible summarizing the observation source.
TCM-8/Doc. 3.1, APPENDIX, p. 3
15.
That global ensemble forecasts of TC position and intensity in CXML Format be
disseminated in a manner that reflects forecasters’ requirements for operational forecasting,
including WMO Forecasting demonstration projects (e.g., the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting
Demonstration Project).
Notes:
- Reference for Cyclone XML: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/cxmlinfo/index.shtml
- CXML schema 1.3 (latest version):
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/cxmlinfo/cxml.1.3.xsd
16.
That RSMCs/TCWCs are encouraged to reanalyze their historic Best tracks to help provide
the most complete and accurate tropical cyclone databases possible to the TC research (and
other) communities.
17.
That all global modeling agencies make real-time TC tracker details available to
RSMCs/TCWCs to improve forecast interpretations.
18.
That national TC warning centers support and encourage emergency response agencies to
undertake or continue studies that identify those areas most at risk from storm tide impacts so that
appropriate warning communication and mitigation strategies can be improved. This should include
the acquisition of basic open coast storm tide hazard forecasting and probabilistic storm tide
estimates to improve warning capabilities for their identified high-risk areas. Permanent tide
gauges, meteorological or wave buoy infrastructure, and other observations could assist
verification of these forecasts.
Recommendations addressed to Research Community (9)
19.
That the TC research community transitions validated basic research concepts into
operational practices by developing guidance tools and/or conceptual models for the analysis and
prediction of TCs, especially at and after landfall. Documentation to facilitate transparency of these
methods should be included.
20.
That satellite techniques be developed and calibrated for atypical TC structures, such as
those that are problematic for the traditional Dvorak technique.
Note: this encompasses the entire range of TC structures with specific focus on those
atypical ones that have been problematic for forecasters in the past (e.g., subtropical and
extratropically transitioning (ET) cyclones, monsoon gyres, as well as TCs making landfall).
21.
That the TC research community develop automated analysis techniques that include
integrated remotely-sensed and in situ observations, aimed at specifying the entire TC vortex wind
structure from the ocean subsurface to the lower stratosphere.
22.
That the TC research community seeks opportunities to organize dedicated field
campaigns to study TC structural changes and Interactions with the environment, including ET and
landfall processes.
23.
Recognizing that IBTrACS is a valuable TC community resource, the IWTC recommends
that it should continue to assemble best track datasets for research purposes.
24.
That researchers are encouraged to develop homogeneous historical, long-term TC
records change and variability studies (amongst other important reasons). Such work should also
include methods to account for changing technology over time.
TCM-8/Doc. 3.1, APPENDIX, p. 4
25.
That the TC research community develops tools targeted at forecasting storm tide impacts
particularly on remote island communities so that effective life-saving strategies and infrastructure
can be identified.
26.
That the TC research community focuses on high resolution modeling for TCs that impact
areas with complex terrain. Increased observations, new model microphysics, and land-oceanatmosphere coupled models with surface hydrology could assist in model development and
verification.
27.
That the WMO Expert Group on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change update its previous
statement regarding TCs and climate change and report on this at the next IWTC.
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