Analysis of a mid-latitude cyclone forecast:
The forecast was from the NWS prediction center and was valid for 1200Z SAT MAR
22 2014. The point of analysis is Buffalo, New York, with the station identifier
KBUF. The forecast was based off the low pressure system located in the upper
right corner on the following map.
48 hour Forecast:
The low pressure system produced precipitation at the Buffalo International
Airport, as well as the surrounding areas. These conditions are demonstrated in the
Doppler radar image from 1156Z SAT MAR 22 2014.
Doppler Radar:
METAR Conditions:
-Conditions at: KBUF (BUFFALO/CHEEKTOW, NY, US) observed 1854 UTC 22
March 2014
-Temperature: 1.7°C (35°F)
-Dewpoint: -2.8°C (27°F) [RH = 72%]
-Pressure (altimeter): 29.96 inches Hg (1014.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1015.2 mb]
-Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.8 m/s)
gusting to 31 MPH (27 knots; 14.0 m/s)
-Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
-Ceiling: 3200 feet AGL
-Clouds: few clouds at 2700 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3200 feet AGL
-Weather: no significant weather observed at this time
In addition, the visible satellite image indicates the low pressure system has
produced a cloud cover that has the rotational shape common of a mid latitude
cyclone. The cyclone has moved slightly east, northeast over the last 48 hours.
Visible Image:
The 500mb map indicates the upper level wind is flowing in a slight, meandering
wave pattern, which is termed gradient wind. There is a small trough below the
Great Lakes area and the storm seems to be sitting right in the middle of that trough.
Behind the eastern edge of the trough the air is cool with temperatures in the mid
30’s.
500mb Map:
Was the forecast correct?
Based on the observations the forecast was correct and has brought precipitation to
Buffalo and surrounding areas.
Reflection:
This assignment was very interesting and informative. I had no idea how many
different variables went into forecasting the weather. I always assumed that
meteorologists looked at data and previous trends then guessed. In Utah the weather
seems to change on a dime so that didn’t help my perception. The reality is forecasting
is a fine tuned science based on multiple forms of data, understanding of atmospheric
conditions, and educated guessing. Since weather is an ever-changing phenomenon it
is impossible to always get a forecast right.
Studying the atmosphere has many beneficial applications. Learning some of the basic
weather conditions and how they are affected/transformed can help us in every aspect
of life from planning a weekend getaway to recognizing severe weather systems and
protecting lives.