Journal of Geophysical Research–Oceans Supporting Information for Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific Xiangbo Feng1,2,3, Michael N. Tsimplis2, Marta Marcos4, Francisco M. Calafat2, Jinhai Zheng3, Gabriel Jordà4 and Paolo Cipollini2 1. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK 2. National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK 3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China 4. IMEDEA (CSIC–UIB), Esporles, Spain Contents of this file ο· SODA’s skills in describing the seasonal sea level cycle, including Figures S1-S4 ο· Figures S5-S10 Introduction This file first provides the assessment of SODA’s skills in describing the seasonal sea level cycle by comparing against the observations from AVISO and tide gauges. Then, other supplementary figures that are mentioned in the main text are also provided behind. SODA’s skills in describing the seasonal sea level cycle The mean (1993-2010) and inter-annual variability (1900-2010) of the seasonal sea level cycle by SODA were estimated and compared with the estimations from sea level observations (π − ππΌπ΅ ) by AVISO (1993-2013) and tide gauges (1900-2010) respectively. Note that because SODA does not include the atmospheric pressure loading effect, the 1 IB effect (ππΌπ΅ ) was removed from both AVISO and tide gauge records in this assessment, ensuring the three datasets are all free of ππΌπ΅ . The mean annual sea level cycle determined by SODA over 1993-2010 is generally in agreement with the estimations of the seasonal sea level cycle determined by AVISO over 1993-2013 in most areas, particularly in the open interior and the deep regions of marginal seas (Figure S1). Compared to observations, SODA underestimates π΄π by 36cm in the shallow waters of the South China Sea, the southwest of the East China Sea and the south of the Sea of Okhotsk. SODA overestimates π΄π by 2-4cm in the north of the East China Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. ππ determined by SODA is ~2 months earlier than AVISO estimates in the Sea of Japan, and is advanced by ~1 month in the coastal regions of the South China Sea and delayed by ~3 months in the coasts of the Sea of Okhotsk. No significant differences are found in estimations of the semi-annual cycle parameters when the error bars are taken into account (Figure S2). The inter-annual variability of π΄π (π΄π π ) over 1900-2010 is significantly correlated (pvalue≤0.05 by t-test) between the estimations from tide gauges and SODA (nearby tide gauges) at 96 (100) of the120 stations (Figure S3 left). The average correlation coefficient is R=0.59 (0.58) for π΄π (π΄π π ). The discrepancies are mainly in the west of the South China Sea and the north of the East China Sea, where the mean annual cycle is not well represented by SODA either (Figure S1). SODA over-predicts the temporal variance of π΄π at 76 stations, and this is indicated by the low values of regression coefficients (less than 1) for the inter-annual variability between tide gauges and SODA estimations (Figure S3 upper right), while SODA does well for π΄π π (Figure S3 lower right). The regional average of the inter-annual variability over each of six sub-regions fits tide gauge estimations well, in terms of both the variability and its changing magnitude (variance) (Figure S4). The correlation coefficient for regional average in each subregion is R=0.53, 0.74, 0.53, 0.57, 0.48 and 0.83 (when heading to north) for π΄π and R=0.74, 0.68, 0.58, 0.28, 0.72 and 0.40 for π΄π π . Therefore, for the long-term variability of the seasonal cycle, SODA cannot always well represent its changing magnitudes at individual tide gauge stations, but it does well when the regional averages are concerned. 2 Figure S1. Mean π΄π (upper) and ππ (lower) for π − ππΌπ΅ from AVISO (1993-2013) (left) and SODA (1993-2010) (middle), and differences of π΄π and ππ between AVISO and SODA (right). In left two panels only the annual cycle estimations that pass the significance test at 95% confidence level are presented, while in the right panel only the differences where error bars of the two compared values (one from AVISO and the other from SODA) do not overlap are presented. Figure S2. Same as Figure S1, but for π΄π π and ππ π . 3 1 0.5 1.5 Correlation 1 Regression 0.5 0 0 1 1.5 0.5 Correlation 1 Scale 0.5 0 0 Figure S3. (upper): Correlation coefficients (left) and regression coefficients (right) between inter-annual variability of π΄π for π − ππΌπ΅ obtained from tide gauges and that obtained from SODA over 1900-2010; (lower), same as (upper), but for π΄π π . Blank circles indicate the correlations that do not pass the significance test at 95% confidence level. Figure S4. (left): Time series of the anomaly of π΄π for π − ππΌπ΅ observed from tide gauges (thin grey) and corresponding values determined from SODA (thin red) over 1900-2010, in 6 sub-regions which are specified in Figure 1; (right): same as (left), but for π΄π π . Bold black and bold red lines are for the regional averages for individual series determined from tide gauges and SODA respectively in each sub-region. 4 cm 10 5 no. 120 cm 0 15 10 no. 119 cm 5 15 10 no. 118 5 cm 20 10 no. 117 0 cm 20 10 0 1940 no. 116 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figure S5. Time series of π΄π observed at 5 outlier tide gauge records (η) (station number: 116-120). Figure S6. (left): Time series of regional average anomaly of π΄π for η observed at tide gauges (black) and the corresponding regional averages for ππΌπ΅ (green) and for ππ π‘ππ (red) in 6 sub-regions as specified in Figure 1; (right): same as (left), but for π΄π π . 5 (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure S7. (a): Best correlation coefficients of the inter-annual variability of π΄π between π − ππΌπ΅ , from tide gauges and SODA, and the nearby wind stress; (b): the wind stress direction (degree) relative to the eastern direction anticlockwise, corresponding to the wind stress which has the best correlation coefficients with sea level as indicated in (a); (c) and (d): same as (a) and (b), but for π − ππΌπ΅ −ππ π‘ππ . Blank circles and areas indicate the correlations that do not pass the significance test at 95% confidence level. 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure S8. Same as Figure S7, but for best correlations with the sea surface currents. 7 Figure S9. Regression coefficients of the inter-annual variability of π΄π between π − ππΌπ΅ and the sea surface currents at each grid point based on SODA over 1900-2010, corresponding to the best correlations between the two variables shown in Figure 12a. Figure S10. Correlation coefficients of the inter-annual variability of π΄π between the wind stress and the surface currents over 1900-2010 that are used to detect the links with sea level in Figure 10 and Figure 12. Only the correlations that are significant at 95% confidence level are plotted. 8