Date:
12/05/13
To:
Robert Goldstein, Associate Provost
From:
Peter L. Walton, Associate Dean
Subject: Proposal to add PHEP-621 “Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology”
The above-named course is proposed to be added, to be effective Spring 2014.
The course is an elective in the epidemiology M.S. and public health science Ph.D. with
specialization in epidemiology programs.
The proposed syllabus has been approved by the MPH Program, Curriculum Committee, Faculty
Forum, and the dean’s office.
Attachments:
 Proposed CIF (signed hard copy to follow)
 Proposed syllabus
Proposed CIF
Proposed Syllabus
Course Data
Number:
Title:
Credit-hours:
Department:
School/College:
Type:
PHEP-621
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
4
Epidemiology and Population Health
School of Public Health and Information Sciences
Lecture
Catalog Description
This course introduces essential statistical concepts and foundations for epidemiologists. It is designed for
epidemiology students to exercise statistical theory as applied to epidemiologic problem-solving.
Course Description
Statistical techniques are widely used in epidemiologic research. The aim of the course is for students to
understand the statistical foundations and theories that underlie these techniques and to enhance critical thinking
and integration of this material with broader epidemiologic principles. Practical application of statistical theory
to epidemiologic examples, including data management and analysis using SAS statistical software, is an
integral part of the course.
Central Course Question
How do epidemiologists depend on and use statistical concepts in epidemiological study design, data collection,
data analysis and interpretation?
Fundamental and Powerful Concepts
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Probability and probability distributions
Random error
Bias
Sampling
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Parameters
Statistics
Estimation
Course Objectives/Student Learning Outcomes
At the completion of the course, the successful student is able to:
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Describe characteristics of epidemiologic data and different sampling procedures. [C2]
Create descriptive statistics to describe epidemiologic data using real or simulated datasets. [C3]
Appropriately apply basic probability theory to epidemiologic problems.[C3]
Distinguish between random error and bias [C4]
and provide examples of each. [C2]
Identify and describe discrete and continuous probability distributions [C2]
Use the theory underlying discrete and continuous distributions correctly to make statistical inferences
about epidemiologic data. [C5]
Test epidemiologic hypotheses using appropriate statistical methods.[C3]
Distinguish between exact and asymptotic methods [C4]
and apply each as appropriate to make statistical inferences. [C3]
Calculate the power or sample size required to make a specified statistical inference.[C3]
Distinguish between categorical and continuous data and the statistical methods required to test
hypotheses using each type of data. [C4]
Describe the likelihood function [C2]
and use maximum likelihood methods to estimate statistical parameters. [C3]
Page 1 of 8
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
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PHEP-621
Conduct simple linear regression and logistic regression models [C3]
and interpret parameters from these models. [C5]
Explain how confounding and interaction can be incorporated into regression models [C2]
and create these models to address epidemiologic questions with real or simulated datasets [C3]
Distinguish between additive and multiplicative models.[C4]
Use SAS software to perform statistical analyses described above.[C3]
Brackets refer to levels of cognition according to Bloom’s taxonomy.1
C1 = Knowledge
C2 = Comprehension
C3 = Application
C4 = Analysis
C5 = Synthesis
C6 = Evaluation
Prerequisites
Enrollment in the M.S. program in epidemiology or the public health sciences Ph.D. program with
specialization in epidemiology.
Students who don’t meet these criteria but believe they are qualified and wish to enroll in the course should
contact Student Services at 502-852-3289 for information.
Course Instructors
Name
Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.
Course Director
Office
Phone
SPHIS 232
502-852-4063
Email
kctayl04@louisville.edu
The course instructor welcomes conversations with students outside of class. Students may correspond with the
instructor by email or phone.
Students should also contact the course instructor with questions they might have regarding the mechanics or
operation of the course.
Course Topics and Schedule
IMPORTANT NOTE: The schedule and topics may change as the course unfolds. Changes are posted on
Blackboard.
The course consists of three meetings each week: two 1.5- hour classes and one 1-hour laboratory.
Meeting
Class 1
Class 2
Lab 1
1
Topics
Assignments
Random sampling, expected value, bias, sample statistic, precision, uncertainty, expected  Homework 1 distributed
values
 Install SAS on computer
Descriptive statistics: mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation, variance,
covariance, correlation
SAS lab for descriptive statistics: importing and creating data sets using SAS, random
number generation, descriptive statistics using real and simulated datasets
Bloom’s Taxonomy – Quick Reference Guide
<https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa/progcompslos/other/Blooms taxonomy et al 2020111028.pdf
Page 2 of 8
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
Meeting
Class 3
Class 4
Lab 2
Class 5
Class 6
Lab 3
Class 7
Class 8
Lab 4
Class 9
Class 10
Lab 5
Class 11
Class 12
Lab 6
Class 13
Class 14
Class 15
Lab 7
Class 16
Class 17
Lab 8
Class 18
Class 19
Lab 9
Class 20
Class 21
Lab 10
Class 22
Class 23
Lab 11
Class 24
Class 25
PHEP-621
Topics
Introduction to probability: conditional probability, independence, conditional
independence
Introduction to probability, continued: diagnostic tests, Bayes’ rule
Homework 1 due
SAS lab for probability and conditional probability
Assignments
 Homework 2 distributed
Discrete probability distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson
Discrete probability distributions, continued: maximum likelihood estimation for
parameters from discrete probability distributions
SAS lab for discrete probability distributions as applied to epidemiologic questions and
data; uncertainty, standard errors
Review for midterm exam #1
Homework 2 due
Midterm exam #1
SAS lab covering exact P-values and confidence limits
Discrete probability distributions, continued: hypergeometric distribution, exact P-values
and confidence limits for discrete distributions
Hypothesis testing using discrete (categorical) data; Fisher’s exact test
 Homework 3 distributed
SAS lab for hypothesis testing using discrete data
Exact confidence limits for the rate ratio
Introduction to normal distribution
Review of exact P-values and confidence limits for rate
Power; Type I and Type II errors
 Homework 4 distributed
Homework 3 due
Power and sample size calculations using simulations in SAS and online power calculators
Review for Midterm Exam #2; extra practice problems
Homework 4 due
Midterm Exam #2
Central limit theorem, normal approximations to the Poisson and binomial
SAS lab for investigating normal approximations to Poisson and binomial, central limit
theorem
Continuous probability distributions: Chi square, F, t, uniform, exponential
Chi-square goodness of fit test
Hypothesis testing using continuous distributions
Homework 5 due
Introduction to hypothesis testing using the Normal, t, and Chi-square distributions
Contingency tables
Power and sample size calculations using continuous distributions
McNemar’s test, contingency tables, comparing binomial proportions, Chi-square
goodness of fit test
SAS lab for hypothesis testing using continuous distributions; power calculations using
continuous distributions
Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Analysis of variance, continued, and theoretical connection to linear regression
SAS lab for ANOVA and linear regression
Midterm Exam #3
Homework 6 due
Analysis of matched data, McNemar’s test, comparing binomial proportions
SAS lab for nonparametric methods
Nonparametric methods
Monte Carlo methods and bootstrapping
Page 3 of 8
 Homework 5 distributed
 Homework 6 distributed
 Homework 7 distributed
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
Meeting
Lab 12
Class 26
Class 27
Lab 13
Class 28
Finals
PHEP-621
Topics
SAS lab for Monte Carlo methods and bootstrapping
Theoretical framework for logistic regression
Bayesian vs. frequentist theories and methods
SAS lab for logistic regression
Introduction to issues surrounding correlated data analysis
Final exam
Homework 7 due
Assignments
Course Materials
Blackboard
The primary mechanism for communication in this course, other than class meetings, is UofL’s Blackboard
system at http://ulink.louisville.edu/ or http://blackboard.louisville.edu/. Instructors use Blackboard to make
assignments, provide materials, communicate changes or additions to the course materials or course schedule,
and to communicate with students other aspects of the course. It is imperative that students familiarize
themselves with Blackboard, check Blackboard frequently for possible announcements, and make sure that their
e-mail account in Blackboard is correct, active, and checked frequently.
Required Texts
Fundamentals of Biostatistics (7th edition), by Bernard Rosner (Brooks/Cole, 2011)
The little SAS book: a Primer (4th edition), by Delwiche and Slaughter (SAS Publishing, 2008)
The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking: Concepts and Tools, by Paul and Elder (The Foundation for Critical
Thinking, 2009) (provided class 1)
Other Required Reading
Other required reading assignments are posted on Blackboard.
Additional Suggested Reading
None.
Prepared Materials Used by Instructors
Materials used by instructors in class are available to students via Blackboard no later than 24 hours following
the class. These may include outlines, citations, slide presentations, and other materials. There is no assurance
that the materials include everything discussed in the class.
Other Materials
SAS software, v 9.3 must be installed on the student’s personal laptop computer before Lab 1. Students are
required to bring laptop computers to all lab meetings.
Course Policies
Attendance and Class Participation
Class attendance is expected and is necessary for successful completion of lab assignments, homework
assignments and exams. Reading the textbook and notes is not a substitute for attending class.
Consequences of Academic Honesty Violation
Copying or plagiarism results in a 0 for the assignment and possibly more serious consequences, such as an
(earned) failure for the course or expulsion from the program or school.
Page 4 of 8
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
PHEP-621
Student Evaluation
The components of student evaluation are (see Grading Rubrics, below, for grading details):
1. “Minute papers.” (10% of final grade)
At the end of each class, students are asked 2-3 questions from the material covered during the class
period. The lowest two scores out of 28 are dropped.
2. Homework. (40% of final grade)
Homework assignments 1-6 consist of calculation problems, short answer, multiple choice, short essays
and, and usually require the use of SAS as covered in the lab sessions (5% each for 30% of final grade).
Homework assignment 7 is a more comprehensive data analysis project (10% of final grade).
Students may discuss homework assignments with each other within reason, but must complete all
assignments individually. Students should come to office hours to discuss questions regarding the
homework or course material.
3. Midterm exams. (10% each for 30% of final grade)
Three midterm exams are closed-book, in-class exams on cumulative course material up to each exam.
Extensive formulas are provided. Exams are similar in format to homework assignments, consisting of
short answer, multiple choice, short essays and problems.
4. Final exam. (20% of final grade)
The final exam is a comprehensive, in-class, closed-book exam on all course material. Extensive
formulas are provided. The final exam is similar in format to homework assignments and midterm
exams, but is more comprehensive in nature, and requires synthesis of concepts learned throughout the
semester.
Grading
The components of student evaluation are weighted as follows:
1. “Minute papers”
Highest 26 of 28 scores counted
2. Homework
Assignments 1-6 @ 5%
Assignment 7 @ 10%
3. Midterm exams
Three @ 10%
4. Final exam
10%
40%
30%
20%
Grading is on letter scale basis. (Note: No rounding is done; “+” indicates a fractional part of a percentage point
is possible above the listed range for the letter grade.)
Final Grade
A+
A
AB+
B
B-
Final Percent
98-100
93-97+
90-92+
88-89+
83-87+
80-82+
Final Grade
C+
C
CD+
D
DF
Page 5 of 8
Final Percent
78-79+
73-77+
70-72+
68-69+
63-67+
60-62+
<60
Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
PHEP-621
Grading Rubrics
Grading is based on selected intellectual standards set forth in the Paul-Elder model for critical thinking.2 The
standards and their scoring in student evaluation are presented in the following tables.
Evaluation Item
Clarity
“Minute paper” question
Calculation problem
Multiple choice question
Short answer question
Short essay question
Standard
Clarity
Accuracy
Relevance
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Uses of Intellectual Standards in Scoring
Standard
Components with Item
ComMidAccurRele“Minute HomeFinal
pleteLogic
term
acy
vance
paper”
work
exam
ness
exam
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Scoring Rubric for Intellectual Standards3
Exceeds
Partially meets
Does not meet
Meets standard
standard
standard
standard
4
3
2
1
Too cloudy to
Polished Crystal
Clear
Slightly hazy
see through
That’s just
The real deal!
Right on!
Are you sure?
wrong!
Bull’s-eye
On-target
Edge of target
Off-target
Completeness
Cornucopia
Enough
Almost enough
Not enough
Logic
Mastermind
Makes sense
Mostly makes
sense
Doesn’t make
sense
Fails to try
0
Nothing to
consider
Nothing to
consider
Nothing to
consider
Nothing to
consider
Nothing to
consider
Other Policies
Expected Student Effort Out of Class
Students are expected to spend an average at least 2-1/2 hours per week per credit hour on the course exclusive of class
time. This time includes but is not limited to reading, research, preparations for class, team or group meetings (electronic
or otherwise), and course deliverables.
Syllabus Revision
The course director reserves the right to modify any portion of this syllabus. A best effort is made to provide an
opportunity for students to comment on a proposed change before the change takes place.
Instructional Modifications for Students with Disabilities:
Students with disabilities who need reasonable modifications to complete assignments successfully and otherwise satisfy
course criteria are encouraged to contact the instructor as early in the course as possible to identify and plan specific
accommodations. Students are asked to provide a letter from the Disability Resource Center and other documentation to
assist in planning modifications.
2
Adapted in part from Linda Elder and Richard Paul, Intellectual Standards: The Words That Name Them and the Criteria That
Define Them, The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2008.
3
Adapted from Peter L. Walton, M.D., personal communication, 2012.
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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
PHEP-621
Inclement Weather
This course adheres to the University’s policy and decisions regarding cancellation or delayed class schedules.
Adjustments are made to the class schedule as necessary to take into account any delays or cancellations of this class.
Local television and radio stations broadcast University delays or closings. The UofL web site (www.louisville.edu) and
telephone information line (502-852-5555) also broadcast delays or closings.
Grievances
A student who has grievances regarding the course should seek to have the matter resolved through informal discussion
and through administrative channels, such as the course director, chair of the course’s department, associate dean for
student affairs, and university grievance officer. If the issue remains unresolved, the student may file a formal grievance.
More information is located at Summary of SPHIS Student Academic Grievance Procedure in Student Academic
Grievance Committee (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/cbg/sagc/).
Disabilities
In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, students with bona fide disabilities are afforded reasonable
accommodation. The Disability Resource Center certifies a disability and advises faculty members of reasonable
accommodations. More information is located at http://louisville.edu/disability.
Academic Honesty
Students are required to comply with the academic honesty policies of the university and School of Public Health and
Information Sciences. These policies prohibit plagiarism, cheating, and other violations of academic honesty. More
information is located at https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/policies.
Course instructors use a range of strategies (including plagiarism-prevention software provided by the university) to
compare student works with private and public information resources in order to identify possible plagiarism and
academic dishonesty. Comparisons of student works require students to submit electronic copies of their final works to the
plagiarism-prevention service. The service delivers the works to instructors along with originality reports detailing the
presence or lack of possible problems. The service retains copies of final works and may request students’ permission to
share copies with other universities for the sole and limited purpose of plagiarism prevention and detection.
In addition instructors provide the opportunity for students to submit preliminary drafts of their works to the service to
receive reports of possible problems. Such reports are available only to the submitting student. Copies of preliminary
drafts are not retained by the service.
Continuity of Instruction Plan
A plan for continuity of instruction for this course has been developed and published. All plans are available at
https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa/coip. Continuity of instruction plans provide guidance for how
instruction may be modified to lessen disruption by events that affect transportation, communication, or personal
interaction. Such events may be weather-related (e.g., floods, blizzards, tornados), health-related (e.g., epidemics), or
other widespread occurrences or threats.
Additional Policy Information
Additional policy information is available in the following:
SPHIS Catalog (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/do/aa)
SPHIS Policies and Procedures (https://sharepoint.louisville.edu/sites/sphis/policies)
UofL Graduate Catalog (http://louisville.edu/graduatecatalog)
v2011.11.13
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Statistical Foundations for Epidemiology
PHEP-621
Current Version and Course History
Current Version
Version
Author(s)
Version
2011.11.13
2011.11.13
Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.
Submitted
12/xx/13
Approved
pending
Course History
Change Summary
 Initial version
Page 8 of 8
Author(s)
Kira Taylor, Ph.D., M.S., M.A.Ed.