Cohort Graduation Rates 2013

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Cohort Graduation Rates
2008 -2013
Prepared by: Stephanie Homan
Dolores Chavez de Daigle
New Mexico implemented its first 4-year cohort graduation rate in 2009, transitioning to the National Governors Association (NGA)
cohort computation method. The cohort consists of all students who were first-time freshmen four years earlier and who graduated by
August 1 of their 4th year plus any students who transfer into the state and district during the four-year period for that cohort.
Additionally, cohorts are tracked for one additional year past their expected year of graduation, yielding a 5-year graduation rate. The
4-year rate is utilized for annual school and district accountability.
New Mexico's Shared Accountability model was reviewed by the U.S. Department of Education and approved in the spring of 2010.
The unique features of Shared Accountability are:



All schools with any grade 9, 10, 11, or 12 receive a rate.
Student outcomes are distributed proportionally to all high schools that student attended.
All students entering New Mexico public high schools become members of an on-time cohort.
Students are proportioned into 16 units (one each for the four reporting periods each year across the four years of high school).
The number of records a student generates to be reviewed and validated depends on the number of transfers the student makes
during his/her high school career. A student enrolled in a NM public school for all four years of high school will generate 16
points or units. If the student remains in one district or school all 16 points are attributed to that district or school. If the student
were to transfer during his 2 year of high school to a different district; each district would share the accountability with the student
counting 8/16th or 0.5 for one district and 8/16th or 0.5 for the second district.
When rates are presented for four or five year cohort graduations, the numbers associated with the rates are not students but in fact
records that represent units or points associated with a student’s enrollment.
PED has published 4-year rates for four cohorts or graduating classes and provided that information by each NCLB reporting
category. Five year cohort graduation rates have been provided for the class of 2008, 2009 and 2010 with detailed categories for
2009 and 2010.
For the 2011 4-year cohort the PED established new regulations about how students are classified into a cohort group. The PED
announced these changes after data for the 2011 cohort had been submitted to the PED for verification through the STARS
reporting system. The specific changes are: special education students who continue after their fourth year of high school must be
identified as a graduate even if they intend to continue their education; this was not the practice for the 2001 class and therefore
these students were counted as non-graduates; pregnant students had previously been afford an additional year to graduate "on
time" and this was discontinued in the 2011 cohort; charter schools approved by the local board are now included in the district
rates. Students who did not complete all four years of high school in New Mexico were previously counted for only the portion of
their attendance in a New Mexico public school; now these students count as if they were enrolled for all four years (counting a
full 16/16th).
Students who entered a New Mexico public school as repeating 9th grade were counted in their previous cohort (their first year in
9th grade). For the 2011 these students who were repeating 9th grade but enrolling in a New Mexico school for the first time are
counted as first time 9th graders for this cohort. Students who repeat 9th grade are at high risk for not completing high school
even in 5 years.
In 2012, the PED made it clear that designation of the cohort year for each student included in the cohort is established when the
student is found to be in two consecutive reporting periods in the state. Therefore, unlike previous years, where the cohort year
was established based on the first time enrollment in any district, the cohort year is established when students are enrolled in two
consecutive reporting periods in the state, regardless of when students enter a particular district.
For 2013 only the four-year cohort was available at the time of publication of this document.
100
APS Four Year Cohort Trend
95
4 Yr Cohort - All Students
90
4 Yr APS Non Charters Only
85
80
75
73.3
70.1
70
66.9
65.1
65
63.2
68.7
64.7
64.7
60
65
63.4
55
50
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 Actual
2011 Actual
2012 Actual
2013 Actual
APS Four and Five Year Cohort Graduation Rates
PED Calculated Rates with Shared Accountability
Student Groups
4 Year Rate
2010
2011
64.7
63.4
70.2
68.6
59.4
58.3
74.4
75.2
58.7
55.5
60.8
59.5
84.8
77.7
44.4
45.7
2012
65
71.6
58.9
74.6
62.7
61.6
84.7
49.4
2013
68.7
74.2
63.4
76.9
65.6
66.4
87.1
50.3
All Students
Female
Male
Caucasian
African American
Hispanic
Asian
American Indian
2008
63.2
67.7
58.7
73.6
62.1
56
78.6
49.4
2009
65.1
69
61.4
76
61.4
58.2
77.2
52.5
Economically Disadvantaged
60.2
46
51.1
51.6
56.5
61.2
Students with Disabilities
57.8
70.3
63.3
44.9
49.2
63.1
English Language Learners
69.9
61.6
58
50.6
57.3
61.8
The PED has provided a 4-Year Cohort Rate
for three years, the 2008, 2009, and 2010 for
each category of student. In 2011 the PED
changed calculations for reporting rates and
included charters in the district rate. The 5year rates are provided by category for 2009
and 2010. The four-year rates by individual
category of student are shown in the next
graph.
When interpreting these rates it is important to remember that the rates are based on the numbers of records representing fractions of
student enrollment, not students.
APS has a higher transfer rate in and out of schools than other districts in the state.
Therefore, more students touch our schools and district, giving us more records (fractional parts of student) to consider in calculating
the rates and greater likelihood that the new calculation strategies will have a negative impact.
Student Groups
All Students
Female
Male
Caucasian
African American
Hispanic
Asian
American Indian
Economically Disadvantaged
Students with Disabilities
English Language Learners
4 Yr
2009
5 Yr
4 Yr
2010
5 Yr
4 Yr
2011
5 Yr
65.1
69.0
61.4
76.0
61.4
58.0
77.2
52.5
46.0
70.3
61.6
69.8
72.7
66.9
79.1
69.8
63.5
82.9
61.4
54.1
71.4
66.5
64.7
70.2
59.4
74.4
58.7
60.8
84.8
44.4
51.1
63.3
58.0
67.0
72.1
62.1
76.0
60.9
63.7
85.4
48.9
55.8
65.7
61.8
63.4
68.6
58.3
75.2
55.5
59.5
77.7
45.7
51.6
44.9
50.6
67.3
71.9
62.8
77.3
61.1
64.0
81.2
51.6
57.6
53.5
57.3
2012 5-year cohort
rates are not available
from the PED at the
time of publication of
this document
APS has a greater diversity of student population than other districts in the state. Research supports
that the greater the diversity of an urban district the greater the challenges facing students and
districts in meeting student needs.
When interpreting these rates it is important to remember that the rates are based on the numbers of records
representing fractions of student enrollment, not individual students.
APS has a higher transfer rate in and out of schools than other districts in the state
So more students touch our schools and district, giving us more records (fractional parts of student) to consider in
calculating the rates and greater likelihood that the new calculation strategies will have a negative impact.
Four Year Cohort Graduation Rates by NCLB Categories
PED Calculated Rates with Shared Accountability
100
95
90
84.8
85
80
75
76
73.6
78.6
76.9
74.475.274.6
70
65
62.1 61.4
60
77.7
66.4
65.6
62.7
58.7
55.5
77.2
87.1
84.7
61.6
60.8
59.5
58.2
2008
56
52.5
55
49.4
50
45
49.450.3
45.7
44.4
2009
2010
2011
2012
40
2013
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Caucasian
African American
Hispanic
Asian
American Indian
Four Year Cohort Graduation Rates by NCLB Categories
PED Calculated Rates with Shared Accountability
100
95
90
85
80
75
70.3
69.9
70
65
60
56.5
55
50
63.3
61.2
60.2
63.1
51.1 51.6
46
45
61.8
61.6
58
57.8
49.2
57.3
50.6
44.9
2008
2009
2010
2011
40
2012
35
2013
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Economically Disadvantaged
Students with Disabilities
English Language Learners
100
90
80
70
60
50
2010
40
2011
2012
30
20
10
0
2013
Individual School 4-Year Cohort Rates
2010
2011
2012
2013
eCademy
10.6
4.7
25.1
2.9
Albuquerque High
58.1
63.7
67.6
69.5
76.9
75.9
Atrisco Heritage Academy
Cibola
76.4
74.3
78.1
78.5
Del Norte
62.2
54.7
59.5
61.9
Early College Academy
74.2
79.2
91.7
90.1
Eldorado
79.8
80.6
79.8
83.5
Freedom
23.1
33.5
37.4
45.2
Highland
46.9
48.9
53.9
64
La Cueva
84.9
85.6
86
87.2
Manzano
67.8
68.1
64
67.6
New Futures
48.2
34.4
27.6
37
Rio Grande
49.6
52.1
55.6
65.4
Sandia
76.7
76.9
77.5
82.5
School on Wheels
15.3
19.3
20.9
26.7
Valley
67.3
69.1
66.2
70.9
Volcano Vista
85.2
79.4
79.9
81.3
West Mesa
53.5
58.2
70
64.7
NexGen
62.2
Some schools such as eCademy do not have graduation classes. However, students who have attended that school
will be counted in a cohort graduation that is calculated using portions of students representing the amount of time
the student attend that particular site, thus generating a cohort rate for that school.
FAQs About how the NM Cohort Graduation Rate is Calculated
What is shared accountability?
In the past, New Mexico assigned a student’s graduation outcome to the school where they were last enrolled. Mobile students who attended several
schools would impact only their most recent school. In order to hold all schools accountable for their effect on graduating students, the shared
accountability method was developed to give feedback to all high schools, including those with only 9th or 10th grades. The method apportions a
student’s outcome among all schools they attended, and is adjusted by the amount of time spent at each school.
Does this mean that mobile students count more than stable students in the rates?
No, every student contributes a total count of 1 to the numerator and denominator of the rate for schools, districts, and state. For example, a student
who attended 2 schools for equal amounts of time would contribute .50 (or 50%) of their outcome to each school. A student who transfers from
another state and enrolls as an 11th grader would count as 1 as well; shared proportionately at each school in which the student enrolled.
Who else uses this method?
New Mexico is one of the first to use shared accountability. Students are now tracked with multiple yearly snapshots by submissions through STARS
from each district in the state.
Who is a member of the 2011 cohort?
The 4-year cohort (or Class of) 2011 consists of all first-time 9th graders in 2007-08. They are joined by incoming 10th graders in 2008-09, 11th
graders in 2009-10, 12th graders in 2010-11. To become a member the student must have been enrolled for at least two reporting periods during the
four-year period.
How are early graduates counted?
All graduates are counted by their cohort year. So a student who entered 9th grade in 2007-08 but who graduated early, in 2010, would STILL be
counted as a 2011 graduate.
Is the dropout rate the reverse of the graduation rate?
No. Every student who does not graduate on-time (within the four years) is not a dropout. Many of those students are still enrolled in our public
schools using an extra year to complete required credits. A few of those students have taken and passed the GED and are enrolled in post-secondary
programs in our community and some have dropped out. Even among the dropouts our past research has shown that some of those students have
transferred out of state to continue their education and failed to notify the district.
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