Sovereignty far from a dead issue in Quebec, poll finds
ANDY BLATCHFORD
MONTREAL— The Canadian Press
Published Monday, Mar. 26, 2012 3:39PM EDT
Last updated Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2012 2:15AM EDT
Quebeckers still have an appetite for independence if they don't get constitutional reform, suggests a
new survey that could surprise people who consider the sovereignty issue dormant.
Given a choice of three options, independence was the most popular choice among poll respondents
when asked what they would want if the Constitution isn't revised.
The Leger Marketing survey, released Monday, was commissioned by a group of academics just before
the 30th anniversary of the patriation of the Constitution.
The backbone of Canada's governing system and its framework for legal rights, the new Constitution
was endorsed by every province except Quebec when it came into effect in 1982. Later attempts to
reopen the discussion resulted in spectacular failure, dividing the country.
The new survey found that 44.5 per cent of Quebeckers would still support separating from Canada if
the Constitution could not be changed enough to satisfy the majority of the province.
Nearly 39 per cent said the province should stay in the federation even if no amendments are made to
the Constitution; 16.8 per cent were undecided.
The survey, conducted online between March 5 and 12, also found that nearly 71 per cent of
Quebeckers believed the Quebec government should take the first step to propose changes be made
to the Constitution.
“That question of constitutional reform of Canadian federalism is still alive — this is still a
preoccupation for many Quebeckers, and I would even say for most Quebeckers,” said Benoit Pelletier,
a former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister who is now a constitutional scholar at the University of
Ottawa.
It's unclear whether such a move would bear any fruit.
The survey's results from elsewhere in Canada suggest there's almost no desire outside Quebec to
change the Constitution to grant the province more power.
Mr. Pelletier now sits on the board of the Association internationale des etudes quebecoises, the group of
academics that commissioned the study. The ex-intergovernmental affairs minister in Premier Jean
Charest's government has long advocated for the constitutional issue to be re-examined by politicians.
Mr. Pelletier, who is a federalist, said he doesn't see a constitutional crisis on the horizon because
Quebecers have not set a deadline on reform.
But even though he believes the provincial government doesn't have to make an immediate push for
amendments, Mr. Pelletier thinks a society should always be interested in the state of its constitution.
The poll surveyed more than 2,039 people this month across Canada, 1,002 of whom live in Quebec.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The subject of constitutional reform has been a controversial topic since the document's patriation
three decades ago.
In November 1981, Pierre Elliott Trudeau's government reached a deal with nine provinces to add a
new constitution, including a charter of rights, to the 1867 British North America Act.
The event is commonly portrayed as a betrayal in Quebec – the result of an all-night negotiating
session referred to as the “Night of the Long Knives.”
After the subsequent failures of the Meech Lake and Charlottetown accords, the demise of the old
Progressive Conservative party, the emergence of the Bloc Quebecois, and the knife's-edge result in
the 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum, politicians have steadfastly avoided the topic.
Quebec's sovereigntist politicians have frequently prodded their pro-Canada rivals to pick up the
conversation again, to no avail.
Mr. Charest's current intergovernmental affairs minister steered clear of the subject Monday. A
spokeswoman for Yvon Vallieres said he was not available to comment on the poll results.
The poll found that 21.7 per cent of Quebeckers thought Ottawa had a reason to patriate the
Constitution without Quebec's signature; 54.1 said the federal government did not have a good reason
and 24.3 were undecided.
In the rest of Canada, 51.2 per cent of respondents said the federal government had a reason to
patriate the Constitution without Quebec; 18.1 said it did not have a good reason and 30.6 were
undecided.
FEDERALISM
On constitutional questions, it’s still Quebec vs. the rest of
Canada
RHÉAL SÉGUIN
QUEBEC— Globe and Mail Update
Published Thursday, Apr. 12, 2012 11:16PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Apr. 13, 2012 7:55AM EDT
Thirty years after the patriation of the Constitution, Quebec and the rest of Canada remain as divided
as ever over the need to bring Quebec into the constitutional fold, according to a recent poll.
Quebec and the rest of Canada are at an impasse on a number of issues – more powers for Quebec,
collective rights versus individual rights and the consequences of failing to reopen the constitutional
debate – the survey shows.
In fact, when francophone Quebeckers are asked to choose between the status quo and political
independence, 53.6 per cent prefer independence, the poll shows.
One of the rare points on which Quebec and the rest of Canada agree is whether renewed federalism
is possible. About half of Quebeckers and 46 per cent of those in the rest of Canada say it is not. An
even greater proportion say that even if talks were held, they would have no chance of succeeding.
“Thirty years after patriation a majority of Quebeckers and Canadians recognize that there is no
constitutional change that could satisfy Quebec,” concluded University of Ottawa political scientist
François Rocher in an analysis of the poll data presented to a three-day conference in Montreal
marking the anniversary. “The patriation has left a deep scar that is not yet ready to be healed.”
The Internet poll conducted by Léger Marketing surveyed 2,039 Canadians from across the country,
including 1,002 Quebeckers, between March 5 and March 12. A sample of this size has a margin of
error of plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The poll also found that the constitutional debate generates little interest regardless of where
Canadians live, but that Quebeckers appear to be more knowledgeable about it. Less than one-third of
those surveyed in the rest of Canada compared to half of those in Quebec knew that the 1981
constitutional conference was about the patriation of the Constitution. However in the rest of Canada,
40 per cent know that patriation also involved adopting the Charter of Rights and Freedoms,
something only 35 per cent of Quebeckers know.
Mr. Rocher said that people 35 years of age or younger, particularly the less-educated , are less likely
to know about the defining moment in modern Canadian history.
The poll shows that Quebeckers want constitutional change and that 71 per cent of them believe that
proposals for renewed federalism should be initiated by the province. But about half of those in the
rest of Canada, and even more among English-speaking Quebeckers, are satisfied with the status quo
– and, if talks were reopened, would support weakening Quebec’s powers on the crucial language
issue.
The rest of Canada appears to support that the protection of individual rights is more important than
protecting the collective rights of francophones. Seventy-three per cent of those in the rest of Canada
compared to only 24 per cent among Quebec francophones agreed that individual rights should be
protected even if it meant reducing Quebec’s power to protect its French language and culture.
The rift between Quebec and the rest of Canada widens even more when asked about how the federal
government proceeded in patriating the Constitution. Only 15 per cent of Quebeckers said the federal
government did the right thing by patriating the Constitution without Quebec’s consent while more
than half of those in the rest of Canada shared that view.
According to the poll, almost 80 per cent of the province’s francophones said the constitution should
recognize Quebec as a nation, compared with 13.7 per cent in the rest of Canada. Asked if renewed
federalism should include more powers for the Quebec National Assembly, about 78 per cent of
Quebec francophones agreed compared to only 9 per cent of those surveyed in the rest of Canada.
“The more people are informed about the constitutional stakes, the greater the divide between Quebec
francophones and other Canadians,” Mr. Rocher stated in his presentation.
The conference’s spokesman, former Quebec Liberal minister of intergovernmental affairs Benoît
Pelletier, said every effort must be made to re-open the constitutional debate “and bring Quebec back
into the constitutional fold.”
Mr. Pelletier is realistic enough to believe that there won’t be any constitutional renewal any time
soon. Federalists are afraid of failing, he said, as they did with the 1990 Meech Lake constitutional
accord or the 1992 Charlottetown accord.
“Failure would give new impetus to the separatist movement and no federalist leader wants to be held
responsible for that,” Mr. Pelletier said in an Radio-Canada television interview. “But the important
thing is to talk. ... If debate over constitutional renewal remains taboo then nothing will be done and
Quebec will be permanently excluded from the Canadian constitutional fold.”
-----Message d'origine----De : josephf@chass.utoronto.ca
Envoyé : 13 avril 2012 17:32
À : Sébastien Dallaire
Objet : Data?
Dear Sebastien,
This morning I saw the article in the G&M about an interesting survey your
firm did for François Rocher. While I understand that these data are not
likely to be available, I thought I should check in with you once again to
see what might be available for next year's POL242.
I haven't had much opportunity to come your way, but would always welcome a
visit if you are in these parts. Any chance you are going to CPSA in
Edmonton this June.
Life has for the most part settled down on the home front for me. I trust
the same is true for you.
JF
Fri, April 13, 2012 6:13 pm
Hi Joe,
I am glad to hear that you are doing well. I am also doing very well and
things are good and stable at home. It's really nice for a change!
Yes, the poll is interesting although I have my reservations about it. I am
especially concerned with the fact that they asked about support for
independence at the end of the survey after many questions on
constitutional squabble. I thought this was bound to increase support and
it seems to have done that. But they provided all questions and it was
their research, so... But it would be good material to work with for your
class. I am keeping an eye out for any other interesting polls that
may come up.
The permission to use the data would be theirs, not ours. But I can
certainly see whether they are willing to share them. I have no idea
whether they want to impose an embargo before they publish or not. I'll
ask.
I will certainly let you know when I come to Toronto and I hope you'll do
the same if you come to Montreal. I'm always available for lunch, dinner or
whatever.
Talk to you soon,
Seb
Sébastien Dallaire
Research Director
Leger Marketing
Tue, April 17, 2012 11:14 am
Hi Joe,
Here are the questionnaire and data file for the survey. I'm sure your
students will
have some fun with it!
Cheers,
Seb
Sébastien Dallaire
Research Director
Leger Marketing