Europe’s Mixed Economy: (“The Commanding Heights” – Chapter 1) (“Economics” – Chapter 13) During the 20th Century, the role of government in the economy and the economic systems which dominated changed dramatically. In most developed economies there was very little government at the start of the century an increasing role for government from about 1930 to the mid 1970’s a decline in the role of government from the mid 1970’s onward Government Intervention in Economy 0 time 1900 1930s 1970s Why did these shifts occur? What are the consequences of such shifts (political, social, and economic)? 1 Increased role for government in the economy is most often justified by claims that markets: could readily fail; will not provide many valuable goods and services; give outcomes which are “too risky” for individuals; potentially allow firms to “exploit” individuals. Intuitively, increased expansion of government in the economy often occurred after “bad times,” such as revolutions, World Wars, Great Depression, financial crises, etc. individuals in society looking for government to “do something” in order to provide a “better outcome.” 3 sources of post WW-II “mixed economy consensus”: 1. WW-II devastated Europe – the war caused destruction, misery, and disruption over the entire continent => Consensus that government needed to “help” Tens of millions of people starving Total loss of life in WW-II of roughly 72 million people – several countries lost over 10% of population Homes and factories reduced to rubble Agricultural and transportation infrastructure destroyed 2. Before World War II the world experienced the “Great Depression” (during the 1930’s) Unemployment rates over 20% in many countries Appeared as if the market system had failed miserably 2 3. Prestige and Respect for Soviet System Soviet “5 year plans for industry,” “command-andcontrol economy,” and “claims of full employment” seemed to argue that socialism was the answer to controlling the economy (Full Employment – a situation in which every person in the labor force who wants to work is able to find a job – that is, the unemployment rate is “0%”) Limitations of central planning (particularly “lack of incentives” and “resource allocation difficulties”) were still decades away from being evident Governments promised to reconstruct, modernize, and propel economic growth, in order to deliver equity, opportunity, stable economic outcomes, and a decent life. governments in many countries chose to (i) capture and control the “Commanding Heights” of the economy and (ii) establish a “Welfare State” Commanding Heights – “most important” or “strategic elements” of an economy, consisting of sectors which produce outputs that are essential for other sectors to operate (e.g., transportation, energy, financial markets, etc. => G.E. Turbine ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds5hVzrkoKI). Welfare State – a system in which the government assumes the responsibility of improving the welfare of its citizens, particularly with regards to health care, education, employment, and social security. Great Britain is an example of a previously free market oriented country that did both of these 3 Britain: Fabians – British Socialist who sought to replace the “scramble for private gain” with “collective welfare.” Fabian Society in UK founded in 1884: sought to implement socialism by peaceful means within the existing political system (i.e., “voting”), not by way of “revolution” 1930’s: Fabians saw other governments intervening in the economy with the objective of improving the outcome for individuals, and wanted to do the same in Britain => Fabians greatly influenced the philosophy of the UK’s Labor Party Clement Atlee of the Labor Party was elected Prime Minister in 1945 in a Landslide over Winston Churchill, right before the end of WW-II Labor government that took control after WW-II sought to “make government into the protector and partner of the people” and to “take on responsibility for the wellbeing of its citizens.” Beveridge Report – set out social programs to “slay the five giants” of: Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor (i.e., filthy and wretched living conditions), and Idleness (i.e., unemployment); written by William Henry Beveridge The Labor Government and the Beveridge Report forever changed the way Britain (and much of the rest of the industrial world) viewed the role of the state in regards to social welfare. 4 Following Beveridge Report recommendations, the Labor government established a “welfare state” by providing “free” medical care creating new pension systems promoting better education and housing seeking “full employment” Labor Government under Atlee also committed to “nationalizing” the commanding heights of the economy. coal, iron and steel, railroads, international telecommunications, utilities were all “nationalized” in the end, about 20% of Britain’s workforce was employed in nationalized enterprises Nationalization – the acquisition of ownership/control of a privately owned enterprise by the national government, either with or without compensation to the original owners. Policies of the Labor Party appeared to work – unemployment, which was well over 12% throughout the 1930’s, was as low as 1.3% in the late 1940’s. 5 France: No increase in the standard of living between the start of WW-I and the end of WW-II => urgent need to reconstruct and modernize Under Charles de Gaulle (President from 1944 to 1946): key sectors of the economy were nationalized increased social welfare programs were put in place reliance upon indicative planning began Consensus for a “new” France, built upon an economy divided into three sectors: Private: resources owned and operated by individuals Controlled: resources owned by individuals, but the use of which was heavily guided by the state Nationalized: resources owned and directly operated by the national government (“Nationalization Acts of 1945 and 1946” gave the government control of: banking, electricity, gas, coal, and other industries) Active role in economic planning: government established the “General Commission of Planning” in 1946 (headed by Jean Monnet) Monnet Plan – set targets and priorities for investment in order to modernize key sectors (e.g., coal, electricity, steel, railways, and agriculture). French notion of Indicative Planning (intended as a middle ground between markets and socialism) known as: Planification – efforts by the government to focus, prioritize, and guide the actions of private business Jean Monnet created a credible model for an active role for government and planning in a modern market economy => helped to create a consensus for the “mixed economy” in France and throughout Europe 6 Germany: Appalling conditions after the end of WW-II: infrastructure destroyed, worthless currency (crippling markets), mass starvation Appeared as if Germany was destined to become a Socialist country => leaders of the Social Democrat party were committed to replacing capitalism with nationalization and central planning, much in line with the policies of the British Labor Party Lack of food in Germany part of a “global food crisis” By 1947, European wheat production was half of its 1938 level U.S. was providing a great deal of food relief to Germany January 1948: Johannes Semler (German Director of Economic Administration in the American/British Occupation Zones) noted in a speech that much U.S. aid was not wheat, but rather corn, which he sarcastically pointed out was what Germans fed to chickens - the word he used translated as “chicken feed” - Semler was fired and replaced by Ludwig Erhard Ludwig Erhard belong to a group of free market economists called the “Ordoliberals” who had a vision of the “German Social Market Economy.” 7 “German Social Market Economy” – system which relied primarily upon free market institutions, but with a significant “social safety net” (subsidy and transfer payments to take care of disadvantaged members of society) June 1948: America and Britain executed massive currency reform, replacing the worthless reichsmarks with new deutsche marks. This stronger, more valuable currency created a much more solid economic foundation However, German markets still constrained by an inefficient system of allocation and price controls, put in place when Nazi’s had power Price controls could not be altered without the approval of U.S./U.K. => Ludwig Erhard did not alter them, but rather completely abolished them Without price controls, Germany again had a functioning market economy => this was the birth of the “Social Market Economy” Overall embrace of a larger role for government: following WW-II, socialist ideas dominated much of Europe most all countries moved toward a “welfare state”: public health insurance, family benefits and allowances, increased social security programs, mandated prenatal care, guaranteed generous vacation time, universal child care 8 Unintended impact of Government Policies on Markets: As governments began to play a larger role in economic matters, fewer answers were determined in markets => countries often found that government policies resulted in outcomes that were not intended… Observation on Labor Market Outcomes: throughout Europe unemployment rates are systematically higher than in the U.S. For example, in Spain it is about “(1.85) times higher” than in the U.S. Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 U.S. 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 7.2% Spain “ratio” 11.3% 1.95 11.3% 1.88 10.4% 1.89 9.2% 1.80 8.1% 1.69 8.3% 1.80 13.9% 1.93 “average ratio” = 1.85 Other “average ratios” during this period: Germany – “(1.74) times higher” than U.S. Greece – “(1.70) times higher” than U.S. France – “(1.65) times higher” than U.S. Finland – “(1.44) times higher” than U.S. Italy – “(1.40) times higher” than U.S. European Union – “(1.62) times higher” than U.S. Question: Why is the unemployment rate in Spain “(1.85) times higher” than in the U.S.? 9 Possible Answers: People in the U.S. have a greater work ethic… Spanish people are lazy… Correct Answer: differences in “the cost of being unemployed” between the countries that is, the “decision making environments” differ across the two countries; individuals in each countries are “behaving rationally,” given the relevant costs and benefits which they face Americans rely more heavily upon employment to meet “basic needs” (e.g., health insurance provided through employer in U.S. but through government in Spain) Extent of unemployment compensation differs greatly across the countries (e.g., in Spain there is support of up to “70% of working wage rate” for up to 2 years, while in the U.S. there is support of “less than 50% of working wage” for typically half a year) Overall “Social Welfare Programs” are more generous and less restrictive in Spain than in the U.S. In total, fewer people in U.S. are unemployed, since the costs of being unemployed are greater Bad side of unemployment support – reduces the incentive for the unemployed to find new employment in a timely manner, leading to higher rates of unemployment. Good side of unemployment support – reduces the bad outcome for workers laid off beyond their own control; allows unemployed to have more time to find a “better match” when seeking new employment (i.e., improves overall labor market outcomes) 10 Trade and National Power: Just as there was a “dual shift” regarding the role of government in the economy during the 20th century, there was also a “dual shift” in regards to trade barriers and the resulting levels of international trade… Before World War I, barriers to trade were relatively low World War I (from 1914–1918) disrupted international trade and global commerce Post WW-I movement toward economic separatism in the late 1920s and early 1930s there were increases in trade restrictions and trade barriers (both a cause of and a consequence of the Great Depression) => subsequent decreases in levels of international trade starting in January 1929, for 53 straight months the volume of international trade decreased from its level in the previous month from the late 1920s to mid 1930s, manufactured imports declined by roughly - 33% in Germany - 40% in Italy - 50% in France In the decades following WW-II there was a dramatic reduction in trade barriers and a subsequent increase in international trade (both globally and particularly in Europe) Common acceptance of Keynesianism, a larger role for government in regards to social welfare policies, and other elements of planning drew the “mixed economies” of European countries together 11 GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – developed at the U.N. Conference on Trade and Employment, Havana, Cuba, 1947) Initial agreement was signed by 23 countries, including: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Netherland, Norway, South Africa, United Kingdom, and United States Provided mechanisms for negotiating multilateral reductions in tariffs (tariff – a tax placed on goods imported from abroad; tariffs raise the price of imported goods and therefore discourage trade) One of the primary propellants of postwar economic growth; helped create a “global economy” in which economic activity transcended national borders Treaty of Rome (1957) – established a “Common Market” (known as the European Economic Community; precursor to the “European Union”) An unprecedented joining of diverse economies, built upon: the mixed economy consensus, the drive to deal with issues related to the reconstruction of Germany, and the threat of the Soviet Bloc European Central Bank – the central bank of the European Union, which administers monetary policy for the 17 nations which directly use the Euro as their sole currency bank created in 1998; circulation and official use of Euro began in 2002 economies of Europe further integrated and drawn together by this institutional change => in many respects, Europe is now a “single economy” 12 Postwar Economic Record of Western Europe and U.S.: Period following WWII was one of considerable economic growth in both the U.S. and war-devastated Europe “Mixed Economies” in Europe delivered a standard of living and a way of life that could not have been imagined a generation before European countries enjoyed brisk economic growth, low levels of unemployment, and low levels of inflation from mid 1950’s through mid 1970’s France: “Thirty Glorious Years” Germany: “Economic Miracle” Good economic performance reinforced the notion that planning and an active role of government (i.e., the “mixed economy”) was the route to economic prosperity Again, the limitations of central planning (“lack of incentives” and “resource allocation difficulties”) were still decades away from being evident 13