Applied Conflict Analysis for Prevention and Peacebuilding
Turin, 31 January – 3 February 2012
Conflict dynamics
The analysis of conflict dynamics is a critical step in the conflict assessment process that explores the interaction
between the conflict situation, the stakeholders, and the identified causes of conflict. This section of the assessment
contributed to the identification of entry points for interventions (“capacities for peace“) and predict possible
scenarios in order to design appropriate responses. It considers different elements relating to the conflict, i.e.
connectors and dividers, triggers, accelerators, conflict drivers, conflict trends and possible scenarios.
Connectors and dividers
Connectors are those elements (processes, institutions) that connect people across subgroups (e.g. common concerns
of youth, public spaces, markets, religion). Dividers are those elements (processes, institutions) that are not subject to
consensus in society. (e.g. clan structure and ethnicity, ideology, leadership feuds, religion, etc.).
Connectors and dividers are context specific. For instance, physical roads between communities, major religious
leaders and common histories may be connectors in one society, while they may represent divisions in another
society. When divisions are fueled or connectors are undermined, societies can fragment, sometimes even to the
point of warfare. When, on the other hand, connectors are reinforced and dividers are overcome, people find ways to
live side-by-side, working together to address common problems.
Conflict triggers
Triggers are single crucial acts and events - or their anticipation - which are capable of start out violence. Triggers are
generally activated in context characterized by prolonged instability and high tensions such as in period of critical
transitions. The typical example of a trigger is the Tunisian street vendor who in December 2010 set himself on fire
after being harassed by the police, and whose death triggered a wave of mass protests in the entire Arab region.
Other triggers may include: election disputes, arrest or assassination of political leaders, drought, a military coup,
flood, a strike that turns violent, pictures or video clips of state-led violence posted on social networks.
Conflict drivers
Conflict drivers are normally issues and processes that fuel violence, generally in the long-term. These factors are
dynamic, as they evolve over time and sustain violence. There has been a large debate in the academia as to whether
it is greed (the fierce competition over resources) or rather grievance (the uneven enjoyment of universal rights) that
really drives conflict. Examples of conflict drivers are corruption, poor accountability system, ethnic, regional and
gender-based discrimination, presence of natural resources and their uneven distribution.
Conflict trends
Conflict trends are common patterns that feature conflict and political violence in one country. These patterns can be
periodical events or precedents that recur in a cyclical way over a certain span of time. For instance, the regional
rather than national dimension of conflicts is a recurring pattern of violence in Sudan. In Central African Republic,
although the 1996-97 army mutinies have been eventually settled, they have created a precedent by which politicians
no longer seek to resolve their divergences through dialogue but instead they resort to violence. Trends are a critical
element to consider when developing potential scenarios.
Possible scenarios
Scenario-building is a tool devised to help conflict analyst portray the future. It is not a prophecy but rather an
hypothetical description of a future condition that can contribute to the identification of the most appropriate
responses to possible threatening situations. Scenarios are developed by the accurate observation and analysis of so
called “continuities” (trends) and “discontinuities” (triggers) previously identified. The process of scenario-building
also looks at driving forces that define the history of a country and assess how strong are these drivers and what
potential impact they may have on future events.
Applied Conflict Analysis for Prevention and Peacebuilding
Turin, 31 January – 3 February 2012
Sample checklist for analysing conflict dynamics
Patterns of violence
o What kind of violence has occurred so far in the country?
o Has there been a concentration of violence in specific regions or areas of the countries
o How has violence been dealt so far? Who has dealt with it?
o When did violence erupt? What sort of issue/disputed generated that specific act of
violence?
o What was the triggering factor?
Types of political disputes
o Over elections? Previous elections (what ingredients made them peaceful or violent?)
o Over the media?
o Over resource control?
o Etc…
Data and fact that do not comply with general or formal trends (e.g. and increase of rape cases
being filed in local courts in a specific region, increase of number of strikes for a specific sectors,
increase in business opened by foreigners from a neighboring country, etc.)
Indicators
o No. of youth abductions
o No. of schools drop-outs
o No. of harvest gone lost
o No. of specific crimes
o Etc.
How to cope with conflicting information? Vetting process of information is critical