Animal Agriculture Economic Analysis: Massachusetts, 2002-2012 A Report for United Soybean Board July 2013 Agralytica 333 North Fairfax Street, Suite 202 Alexandria, VA 22314 USA Tel: (703) 739-9090 Fax: (703) 739-9098 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts Animal Agriculture Economic Analysis: Massachusetts, 2002-2012 A report for United Soybean Board TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................ 1 2. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SBM USE: MASSACHUSETTS................................. 1 3. THE IMPACT OF ANIMAL AGRICULTURE IN MASSACHUSETTS ..................... 2 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 4. Output, earnings and employment multipliers ............................... 2 Impact estimates for output, earnings, employment, and taxes .......... 3 Long term impact of animal agriculture ...................................... 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND LONG TERM TRENDS ................................ 4 4.1. 4.2. Recent developments ............................................................ 4 Long term trends ................................................................. 4 APPENDIX - BASIC LIVESTOCK AND ECONOMIC IMPACT DATA – MASSACHUSETTS ..... 7 i ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Soybean meal (SBM) plays a modest role in animal agriculture in Massachusetts, which in turn has a moderate impact on the state’s economy. In Massachusetts: Animal agriculture in 2012 used an estimated 4,000 tons of SBM: 50% in milk production, 20% for eggs, and 17% in pork production; At the state level, animal agriculture represented $87 million in revenues, $15 million in household income, and 640 jobs. In addition, it yielded an estimated $3.9 million in income taxes and the last census (2007) reported $33 million in property taxes; and Over the past decade, the contraction of animal agriculture in Massachusetts has led to decreases of $54 million in economic output, $9.5 million in household wages, 400 jobs, and $2.4 million in tax revenue. This report provides a concise look at the impact animal agriculture has on Massachusetts’s economy. 1. INTRODUCTION Domestic livestock industries are by far the major source of demand for US soybean meal, and future soybean demand is tightly linked to the health of those industries. In order to act at the state and local levels, one needs data and analysis on the economic importance of animal agriculture at those levels. This report addresses this constraint. On behalf of the United Soybean Board, Agralytica has compiled data on the breakdown of animal agriculture by species in each state, estimated soybean meal consumption by species, and analyzed the economic impact of animal agriculture by calculating its effect on output, wages, employment and tax revenue. We have also highlighted long-term trends and recent developments, where relevant. For explanations on data sources and our analysis, please review our national report, “Animal Agriculture Economic Analysis: 2002-2012.” 2. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SBM USE: MASSACHUSETTS In this section, we provide information on soybean meal use in animal agriculture in the state. The state database contains information such as: livestock production and value data, taxation data, and computation of meal use by livestock and poultry. Animal agriculture in Massachusetts used an estimated 4,000 tons of soybean meal in 2012. 1 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts SBM use by animal agriculture category: Massachusetts MA SBM Usage 2012 Share 1,000 s. tons Percent Beef 0 6.7% Pork 1 17.3% Broilers 0 0.0% Turkeys 0 0.0% Eggs 1 19.5% Milk 2 50.0% Other 0 6.5% 4 100.0% TOTAL Source: NASS, Agralytica SBM usage in Massachusetts is dominated by milk production, which accounted for 50%; eggs (20%) and pork (17%) accounted for most of the rest. A gray row indicates a product for which data was withheld. 3. THE IMPACT OF ANIMAL AGRICULTURE IN MASSACHUSETTS 3.1. Output, earnings and employment multipliers To estimate the impact of livestock production on Massachusetts’s economy, we applied RIMS II multipliers from the Department of Commerce for cattle ranching and farming, dairy cattle and milk production, poultry and egg production, and other animal production (mostly hogs and pigs), when applicable. The table below shows the multipliers for Massachusetts. They represent the impact associated with $1 million of industry sales. Economic impact multipliers: Massachusetts MA Output ($) Earnings ($) Employment (jobs) Cattle & calves 1.5067 0.2439 9.3657 Hogs, Pigs, & Other 1.4366 0.2430 9.4901 Poultry & Eggs 1.5202 0.2518 8.4977 Dairy 1.5341 0.2732 11.8712 Source: RIMS II, BEA, Department of Commerce The economic impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts is substantial. $1 million in production in the above segments yields $1.44-1.53 million in total economic activity, $240,000-$270,000 in household wages, and 8-12 additional jobs. 2 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts 3.2. Impact estimates for output, earnings, employment, and taxes When applied to production values for each livestock category, the multipliers above yield an estimate of the overall economic impact, household earnings, and jobs supported in Massachusetts by the livestock industries. Economic impact of animal agriculture - Massachusetts Total Economic Impact Change 2002 - % change 2002 2012 2012 - 2012 Output ($1,000) $ 86,847 (54,097) -38.38% Earnings ($1,000) $ 15,176 (9,497) -38.49% 641 (400) -38.43% (2,429) -38.49% Employment (jobs) Income taxes ($1,000) $ 3,882 Property Taxes in 2007 ($1,000) $ 32,509 Source: RIMS II, BEA, Department of Commerce; NASS; USDA Census; Agralytica At the state level, animal agriculture in Massachusetts represents $87 million in revenues, $15 million in household income, and 640 jobs. In addition to the effect on income and jobs, animal agriculture is a significant source of tax revenues. In Massachusetts in 2012, it yielded an estimated $3.9 million in income taxes. The last Census of Agriculture (2007) also reported receipts of $33 million in property taxes. 3.3. Long term impact of animal agriculture The contraction of animal agriculture in Massachusetts over the past ten years has led to decreases of $54 million in economic output, $9.5 million in household wages, 400 jobs, and $2.4 million in tax revenue. Note: In order to remove the influence of price changes, we used production unit values (at 2012 prices) as the basis for comparison over time. In addition, our multipliers are for categories that aggregate poultry and egg production, and hogs and pigs and “other.” Thus, for example, a decline in egg production can be masked by an increase in broiler or turkey products. 3 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts 4. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND LONG TERM TRENDS 4.1. Recent developments A proposed gestation crate ban failed to pass in Massachusetts. The ban had been inserted into swine regulations that were being authorized to replace previous legislation, which had been inadvertently deleted. Agriculture interests were made aware of the amendment – which involved no public hearing - and rallied to defeat it. The Massachusetts Farm Bureau has been working for passage of HB 753, “An Act to promote the care and well-being of livestock.” It would establish a Livestock Care Standards Board, consisting of 11 members reflecting farmer, veterinary, and consumer interests. Massachusetts is expected to pass a GMO labeling bill in early 2014. Animal agriculture groups are not expecting any direct impact from the law, since animal feed would be exempt. The bill, like one recently passed by Connecticut, is expected to be a “contingent bill,” only going into effect once more states have adopted similar measures. 4.2. Long term trends Cattle 4 Nationally, cattle production has decreased by 2.8% in the last decade. Production has varied by up to 2% from year to year. In Massachusetts, cattle production declined to a low of 7.3 million pounds in 2011. Production recovered slightly in 2012 and was 8 million pounds. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts Hogs and pigs Nationally, hog and pig production has increased by 22.7% in the last ten years. Production set a record in 2012, at 32.2 billion pounds. In Massachusetts, production dropped by 47.3% over the past decade, to 2.3 million pounds. Eggs 5 National egg production has increased by 7% over the past decade. Production reached an all-time high in 2012 at 92.9 billion eggs. In Massachusetts, egg production has declined from 90 million eggs in 2002 to 36 million eggs in 2012. ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts Milk Milk production has grown by 17.8% over the past decade. National milk production reached a record 200 billion pounds in 2012. In sharp contrast, production in Massachusetts has dropped by 39.3% over the past decade, to 219 million pounds in 2012. 6 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts APPENDIX - BASIC LIVESTOCK AND ECONOMIC IMPACT DATA – MASSACHUSETTS NASS DATA Massachusetts Inventories MA 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan 1 ('03 - '13) Cattle & Calves (1,000 head) 51 50 48 48 47 44 43 43 43 40 41 Dec 1('02 - '12) Hogs & Pigs (1,000 head) 14 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 11 12 11 9,886 4,313 9,166 4,294 10,252 3,267 10,401 4,393 9,732 2,661 9,708 2,687 9,931 3,405 8,544 1,813 7,743 3,539 7,368 3,029 8,046 2,274 1,686 89 1,847 77 1,736 75 1,428 71 1,438 71 1,569 52 36 36 36 36 36 361 332 296 290 278 255 246 243 242 220 219 5,391 1,311 6,049 1,393 7,709 1,367 8,053 1,887 7,811 974 7,677 984 6,816 1,308 5,118 666 5,197 1,660 7,792 1,911 9,221 1,366 2,529 4,200 47,652 369 2,715 5,149 45,152 389 2,760 5,078 51,800 363 2,356 3,591 47,850 396 2,416 3,875 40,032 2,918 4,288 53,550 3,718 51,308 2,603 35,178 2,010 43,560 2,355 48,400 2,498 43,800 369 389 363 396 61,452 60,847 69,077 64,133 55,108 69,417 63,150 43,565 52,427 60,458 56,885 Quantity of output Cattle & Calves (1,000 lbs) Hogs & Pigs (1,000 lbs) Broilers (1,000 lbs) Turkeys (1,000 lbs) Eggs (mil eggs) M ilk (mil lbs) Value of production ($1,000) Cattle & Calves ($1,000) Hogs & Pigs ($1,000) Broilers ($1,000) Turkeys ($1,000) Eggs ($1,000) M ilk ($1,000) other Sheep & lambs ($1,000) Catfish ($1,000) Trout ($1,000) M ink ($1,000) Total 7 ANIMAL AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The impact of animal agriculture in Massachusetts Census of AG Number of farms 1997 2002 2007 472 337 751 49 87 53 Dairy cattle and milk production (11212) 338 279 258 Hog and pig farming (1122) 118 72 82 Poultry and egg production (1123) 115 163 480 Sheep and goat farming (1124) 163 211 279 Animal aquaculture and other animal prdxn (1125,1129) 627 1,312 1,776 9,612 12,444 Beef cattle ranching and farming (112111) (NAICS classification) Cattle feedlots (112112) Value of sales Cattle & Calves 6,844 $1,000 Hogs & Pigs 2,638 Poultry & Eggs 16,054 Milk & other dairy products 59,497 Aquaculture (first Census, 1998) Input purchases 50,485 13,563 76,044 28,546 Total (livestock, poultry & their products) 98,596 107,244 125,338 1,075 1,101 1,450 7,408 6,482 5,819 Livestock and poultry purchased................farms Other livestock and poultry purchased......farms $1,000 Feed purchased...............................................farms $1,000 Economic impacts MA Output ($1,000) Earnings ($1,000) 18,548 n/a 373 556 n/a 2,703 1,776 n/a 816 1,064 n/a 3,779 4,043 2,161 2,698 3,821 31,880 26,253 45,134 Employment (jobs) Tax ($1,000) Cattle & Calves $ 13,893 $ 2,249 86 $ Hogs, Pigs, Other $ 1,962 $ 332 13 $ 85 Poultry & Eggs $ 3,797 $ 629 21 $ 161 $ 67,194 $ 11,966 520 $ 3,061 Total impact $ 86,847 $ 15,176 641 $ 3,882 Dairy 575 Cattle & Calves $ (3,177) $ (514) (20) $ Hogs, Pigs, & Other $ (1,761) $ (298) (12) $ (76) Poultry & Eggs $ (5,591) $ (926) (31) $ (237) Dairy RIMS II $ (43,568) $ (7,759) Total impact $ (54,097) $ (9,497) MA Output ($) Earnings ($) (337) $ (400) Employment (jobs) Cattle & calves 1.5067 0.2439 9.3657 Hogs, Pigs, & Other 1.4366 0.2430 9.4901 Poultry & Eggs 1.5202 0.2518 8.4977 Dairy 1.5341 0.2732 11.8712 Federal effective income tax rate Tax rates withheld Other (calculated) $1,000 Multipliers 13,207 9,481 Breeding livestock purchased.....................farms Change 2002 - 2012 2,108 12,107 n/a $1,000 2012 Animal Ag withheld 12.7% Federal Social Security tax rate 7.7% Massachusetts average effective income tax rate Total 5.3% 25.6% Average effective tax rate, Best available data 2007 Sources: Tax Policy Institute, Self Employed and Employee/Employer combined rate. Source: Tax Foundation http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/24682.html Agralytica estimated income tax rate/ Tax Foundation 8 (132) (1,985) (2,429)