Financial Markets Term 6, 2011 Professor Venky Panchapagesan Faculty Block B-208 venky.panchapagesan@iimb.ernet.in 080-26993349 Financial Markets Course Syllabus Course Description This course examines the theory and practice behind the organization of world’s major financial markets. Students will learn about key economic principles that drive wellfunctioning financial markets along with practical, institutional details necessary to navigate them. The course covers equity, debt, currency and commodity markets as well as some exotic markets such as credit default swaps, and traces their evolution within and outside India. Given that markets fail periodically, students will also study why they do so by examining some modern systemic and endemic market crises. A key feature of this course is the discussion of current news events at the start of each class, with students sometimes leading them, that is intended to reinforce concepts we learn through real world applications. Also as a capstone project, students will critically evaluate a current market-related issue from the perspective of different stakeholders, including that of regulators, and learn to make decisions based on sound economic intuition and good institutional knowledge. This course is for students who want to understand how financial markets work in the real world. It is designed to supplement the already learnt theoretical foundation in finance to better prepare them for life after graduation, whether they want to interact with markets passively as an investor, or actively as a trader, investment manager, or as a regulator. At the end of the course, students will leave with a keen appreciation of market mechanics, including dissecting the motivations of different players, evaluating policies and understanding their impact on financial markets and investor behaviour. About Me I am a Finance Ph.D. (from the University of Southern California) with almost 20 years of experience, both in academia as well as in Wall Street. Before joining IIM-B, I was with the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates (www.bwater.com), overseeing their global currency trading and building out their trading analytic and data infrastructure. Prior to that, I worked with Goldman Sachs overseeing trading research for their quantitative hedge funds (www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam). My academic experience includes a seven year stint as a finance professor at the Olin School of Business at Washington University in St. Louis (a top 20 business school) and visiting academic positions at NASDAQ and NYSE. I am also certified in India as a Chartered Accountant and a Cost Accountant and hold a PGDM from IIM (Calcutta). Course Materials There is no single source that covers most of what we will learn in this course. Therefore, I do not prescribe a required textbook though I do think a few (listed below) cover certain parts very well and I have recommended them as optional texts. My lecture 1 Financial Markets notes are meant to only highlight important concepts that we would elaborate and discuss in class. So please do not use them as substitutes for showing up and participating in class. The following two books are optional for this course. They are available at several online outlets such as flipkart.com and are priced reasonably around 400 to 500 rupees each. Title: Trading and Exchanges Author: Larry Harris (ex-SEC Chief Economist) (Oxford University Press, ISBN: 0-19-514470-8) Title: India’s Financial Markets, An Insider’s Guide to How the Markets Work Authors: Ajay Shah, Susan Thomas and Michael Gorham (Elsevier, ISBN: 978-0-12-374251-3) While the former book describes, in simple language, the mechanics of why and how people trade and is written by one of the well-known world experts on market structure, the latter book is more of a description of the evolution of India’s financial markets and where they are today. These books are an excellent resource for keen students of financial markets and would help you well beyond graduation. In addition, I will post or distribute a few readings from time to time that will supplement our understanding of the material covered in class lectures. Course Structure The course is broadly structured into five modules. In the first module, we will refresh our foundational knowledge of Economics and Finance, and to a lesser extent Statistics. This is important so that we can build upon this foundation for a deeper exploration of financial markets in the ensuing lectures. The second module will present a framework to understand the role of a market and to evaluate its ability to satisfy the needs of its stakeholders. In particular, we will examine the economic principles behind market organizations, the role of different market intermediaries and their incentives, frictions caused by misalignment of these incentives, and the choices in market design for overcoming these frictions. The framework allows us to evaluate not only the current state of a financial market but also the trajectory in which it is evolving. Using the framework developed in the second module, we will study the major financial markets – equity, debt, currency and commodity markets – in the third module. We will highlight important issues in these markets and how they are dealt with, both in the Indian as well as in the international context. We will also examine specialized markets such as the CDS market and examine some of the challenges faced by them in this module. 2 Financial Markets In the fourth module, we will examine different types of market breakdowns using real world examples. We will use our framework to understand their origins and also explore regulatory as well as other solutions to address them. In the fifth and final module, students will take up a timely and important market-related issue and examine it from the perspective of different stake holders such as the regulator, market governing body such as the exchange, large and small investors etc. The objective of this exercise is to use our framework to understand everyday issues related to markets and be able to present intelligent ways, backed by sound economic intuition, to address them. Grading Students will get their basic letter grade (plain grades such as A, B, and so on) through a mixture of written and oral evaluations. There will be two short quizzes and a mid-term examination that together will constitute 70 percent of the grading. The remaining 30 percent will be based on end-of-the-term project where students will examine a marketrelated issue (to be chosen from several alternatives that I will provide early in the term) from different perspectives working in groups. In other words, the basic final grade will be determined as follows: 2 short quizzes 20% Mid-term examination 50% Group project 30% Basic grading will be relative and is based on the student’s normalized performance across his peers. A student can supplement this basic grade with high quality in-class participation and can earn a’+’ version of his basic grade. For example, a student who has earned the basic grade B can convert it to B+ through in-class participation. Without class participation, the student’s grade will remain as B. In addition, students can opt to lead real world discussions at the beginning of each lecture that would provide them with “bonus” points. I will post topics for discussion in advance and students can select one among them for class discussion. They need to prepare and provide the class with general background as well as be able to tie the discussion to what we are learning in class. Each “good” discussion (I will provide details on what constitutes “good” in class) can get 5 points which can be used to substitute for poor performance in other assessments such as the mid-term examination. Class and Exam Schedule See tentative schedule below. Guest Lectures I may arrange guest lectures by industry leaders/practitioners throughout the term based on their availability. The primary objective is to expose you to practitioners’ perspectives and supplement our classroom learning with their practical insight. 3 Financial Markets Tentative Schedule Module 1 1 2 Lecture No. 1 2-3 4-5 Theme Introduction Foundation Refresher Framework to Study Financial Markets Content Details Recommended Readings Introduction Student/Teacher introduction Mutual Expectations Project discussion Current events Foundational knowledge refresher Economics (Zero-sum game, Game theory, Externalities, Principal/Agent problem, Moral hazard, Adverse selection, Utility maximization etc.), Finance (NPV, Equity as an option, Capital structure and MM theorems, Real vs. Nominal flows, Portfolio theory, Bond math, Term structure, Purchasing power parity, Traditional vs. Behavioral Finance etc.) Probability, Statistics and Basic Mathematics Market structure framework Market goals/objectives Likely beneficiaries (direct and indirect beneficiaries) Economic principles at play Choice of organization Standardization of instruments Valuation of instruments Risks Regulation and enforcement Imperfections and distortions in practice Dependencies on other frameworks such as legal and accounting framework Role of financial innovation 4 1. Ch. 8 and 9 (Larry Harris, Trading and Exchanges) Financial Markets QUIZ 1 Equity market framework - Apply our framework to understand equity markets - Evolution of International and Indian equity markets along the framework 3 6-7 Equity Markets Key aspects of equity markets - Primary and secondary markets - Primary and secondary participants - Instruments, e.g., Cash, Futures, Options and other derivatives - Decision to go public – principles and process - Role of private information - Market design (order-driven and quote-driven market) - Role and incentives of intermediaries such as analysts, investment bankers and market makers - Price discovery and liquidity - Trading and microstructure - Regulation Indian vs. International experience Current events (issues/possible solutions) 5 1. Lecture notes on framework 2. Ch. 3 and 4 (Ajay Shah et al., India’s Financial Markets) 3. Ch. 6 and 13 (Larry Harris, Trading and Exchanges) Financial Markets Debt market framework - Apply our framework to understand debt markets - Evolution of International and Indian debt markets along the framework 3 8-9 Debt Markets Key aspects of debt markets - Sovereign and corporate debt (credit differences) - Short-term vs. long-term debt (maturity differences) - Inflation-linked bonds - Role of public information (macro-economic announcements) - Market design and evolution (e.g. prevalence of auctions, more structuring, on-the-run and off-therun issues) - Risks - interest rate, default etc. - Role and incentives of intermediaries such as credit rating agencies - Price discovery and liquidity - Trading and microstructure - Regulation Indian vs. International experience Current events (issues/possible solutions) 6 1. Lecture notes on framework 2. Articles to be posted before lecture Financial Markets Currency market framework - Apply our framework to understand currency markets - Evolution of International and Indian currency markets along the framework 3 10-11 Currency Markets Key aspects of currency markets - Major determinants - trade and capital flows, interest rates - Link between short-term interest rates and currency rates - carry trading - Triangulation concept in currencies - Exchange rate regimes and their implications to markets (Floating vs. Fixed rates, Pegging) 1. Lecture notes on - Central bank intervention, currency wars, currency framework devaluations 2. Articles to be posted - Market design (Forward and spot markets, before lecture deliverables vs. non-deliverables, on-shore vs. offshore market) - Role and incentives of intermediaries such as Forex dealers and brokers - Price discovery and liquidity - Trading and market microstructure - Currency trading as a byproduct of other asset classes trading - Regulation Indian vs. International experience Current events (issues/possible solutions) 12 Assessment MID-TERM EXAM 7 Financial Markets Commodity market framework - Apply our framework to understand commodity markets - Evolution of International and Indian commodity markets along the framework 3 13-14 Commodity Markets Key aspects of commodity markets - Major determinants – weather, production, storage and economic activity - Role of commodity markets in hedging Unique aspects such as settlement through delivery and standardization of contracts - Role of geography in development of commodity markets - Role and incentives of intermediaries such as brokers, dealers and analysts - Types of commodity markets (agriculture, metals etc.) - Risks - Market design (spot vs. forward markets, futures, options, swaps) - Forward price curves – contango and backwardation - Price discovery and liquidity - Trading and microstructure - Regulation Indian vs. International experience Current events (issues/possible solutions) 8 1. Lecture notes on framework 2. Articles to be posted before lecture Financial Markets Specialized market framework - Apply our framework to understand some specialized markets Key aspects of some specialized markets - Real estate market - Electricity and power markets - Credit default swaps market - Pollution markets 3 15-16 Specialized Markets - Market design Role and incentives of intermediaries Price discovery and liquidity Trading and microstructure Regulation 1. Lecture notes on framework 2. Articles to be posted before lecture Indian vs. International experience Current events (issues/possible solutions) QUIZ 2 4 5 Framework to study market breakdowns Real world examples across different markets Examination of root causes Regulatory and non-regulatory responses to prevent such breakdowns in the future 17 Market Breakdowns 18 Guest Lecture Guest lecture 19-20 Presentations Project presentations 9 1. Ch. 28 (Larry Harris, Trading and Exchanges) 2. Articles to be posted before lecture